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Geddes/PNSol - Broadband market evolution

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The broadband market needs to evolve beyond speed to encompass all factors that contribute to quality of experience.

The broadband market needs to evolve beyond speed to encompass all factors that contribute to quality of experience.

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  • It does. We've got a demonstration ISP that wrap existing an network and, by understanding their (main issue is access networks) edge conditions and shaping traffic to avoid those issue, delivers a predictable (even under overload) experience.
    Not all networks are stationary enough - this was part of the motivation of talking with OfCom - if stationarity is not part of the network assessment then UK is likely to end up with networks that are not fit for purpose.
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  • I wonder if this also provides services with an opportunity by being able to operator with better experience under variable networks.
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  • 1. PREDICTABLE NETWORK SOLUTIONS Broadband Market Evolution &Measurement Capability Development Dr Neil Davies Predictable Network Solutions Ltd Peter Thompson Predictable Network Solutions Ltd Martin Geddes Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd © 2012 All Rights Reserved
  • 2. Dr Neil DaviesCo-founder, Predictable Network Solutions Ltd Ex: University of Bristol (23 years). Former technical head of joint university/research institute (SRF/PACT).Peter ThompsonCTO, Predictable Network Solutions Ltd Ex: GoS Networks, U4EA, SGS-Thomson, INMOS & Universities of Bristol, Warwick and Cambridge. Authority on technical and commercial issues of converged networking.Martin GeddesFounder, Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd Ex: BT, Telco 2.0, Sprint, Oracle, Oxford University. Thought leader on future of telecommunications industry. PREDICTABLE NETWORK SOLUTIONS
  • 3. PREDICTABLE NETWORK SOLUTIONSDr Neil DaviesCo-founder, Predictable Network Solutionsex-ante network performance The only Ltd Ex: University of Bristol (23 years). engineering company in the world. Former technical head of joint university/research institute (SRF/PACT). • New mathematical performance techniques. • Performance assessment methodology.Peter Thompson • World’s first network contention managementCTO, Predictable Network Solutionssolution. Ltd Ex: GoS Networks, U4EA, SGS-Thomson, INMOS & Universities of Bristol, Warwick and Cambridge. Authority on technical and commercial issues of converged networking. Consultancy on the future of telecoms andMartin Geddes the Internet.Founder, Martin Geddes ConsultingBusiness model innovation. • Ltd Ex: BT, Telco 2.0, Sprint, Oracle, Oxford University.product ideation. • Technology & • Organisation industry. Thought leader on future of telecommunicationsdevelopment. • Public & private workshops.
  • 4. Broadband market evolution The 3 broadband market is maturing. 2 1Dial-up ISP
  • 5. Car market evolution 3 Other markets have gone through similar phases of maturity. 2 1Horse &carriage
  • 6. 1 (Embedded video – click here to view directly.) 1970s car advertsemphasised speed.The metric of top speed was easy to define.
  • 7. 2Then we saw consumerchoice move towards safety. We developed new crash test metrics.
  • 8. 3 Today, fueleconomy tends to be high up the list of priorities inbuyers’ minds. Now we look at grammes of CO2/km.
  • 9. Broadband market evolution Let’s look howthe broadband market is maturingthrough similar phases. Dial-up ISP
  • 10. Stage 1: Coverage At first, everything was about coverage. 1Dial-up ISP
  • 11. 1 Can you get the service in your location?
  • 12. Increased usage,so rising demand for… Faster! 1 Dial-up ISP
  • 13. Stage 2: Capacity 2 Adverts today emphasise speed. 1Dial-up ISP
  • 14. 2 Speed, speed, speed.
  • 15. New applications & services,so rising demand for… Better! 2 1 Dial-up ISP
  • 16. Stage 3: Capability 3 2 1Dial-up ISP
  • 17. 3 Capability“Fit-for-purpose broadband”
  • 18. 3Megabits per second are easy to measure.But how do you measure capability?
  • 19. Today’s market offersdon’t give you any of the right clues.
  • 20. Unfit-for-purpose“Circle of Death” Too many of these, and the service is regarded as unacceptable by the user.
  • 21. Every applicationhas performance needs. QoE Aspirations time to first frame, contiguous playback audio/video quality, lack of glitches, interactivity (text, screen share) Network Expectations These always loss ? delay map onto a statistical bound on loss and delay.
  • 22. A Recent Bad Skype Experience We did a 3-way Skype call to 1.8M/448k ADSL – wholesale 20CN demonstrate the fitness-for- Loss: 0.1%. purpose issue. Delay: 40ms-50ms We measured the network loss and delay characteristics. 20M/2M Cable broadband 10M/1M ADSL Business LLU Loss: <0.5%. Loss: Wandering from a typical 0%-2% up Delay (one-way): 50ms-60ms, jumping to as high as 48% for a second or two.to 500ms for a second or two, then back Delay: 50-70ms
  • 23. Different speeds & characteristics SLOW & STATIONARY LOSS/DELAY Good Experience Bad Experience VERY FAST FAST & VARIABLE DELAY & VARIABLE LOSS
  • 24. Summary: Speed is not the only difference Bad Skype QoE VARIABILITY HIGH LOW Anotherfactor was SLOW FAST affecting SPEEDoutcomes.
  • 25. Cable Broadband:High speed, just as advertised Cable user happens to be on SamKnows network measuring service. Figures show the average throughput is as claimed.
  • 26. Cable Broadband:SamKnows reported AVERAGE delays Are these statistics averaged over hourly periods telling the whole story?
  • 27. Averages hide essential detail Average Delay (by Day) Average Delay (by Hour) 100 800 86.62 720.28 Reported by SamKnows Reported by SamKnows 80 668.74 600Delay (ms) Delay (ms) 60 42.63 400 40 20 21.68 200 169.71 13.79 14.51 14.49 133.06 0 0 07-May 09-May 11-May 13-May 15-May 00:00 04:00 08:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 00:00 Delay varying too Day 9th May fast for Skype to Delay (during call – afternoon of 9th) Directly measured compensate 600 Delay (ms) 400 200 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Per second during call
  • 28. Quality of Experience: Depends on multiple characteristicsDetermines the chance that applications can Most stationary connection had adapt to the network the BEST Skype experience STATIONARITY HIGH Fastest connection had the WORST Skype experience LOWStationarity is the SLOW FAST SPEED Determines which inverse of applications are feasible variability
  • 29. What does this network property enable?STATIONARITY
  • 30. The application Hierarchy of Need We need to evolve our metrics to capture a richer set of capabilities that contribute to fitness-for-purpose. 3. Reasonable bounds on loss and delay 2. Sufficient stationarity 1. Sufficient capacityNote: exact requirements are application-dependent
  • 31. So what?• Measurement is de-facto regulation – If your measurements are partial, your regulation is partial, and users receive a partial service!• Need a market framework for quantity and quality – Measure all network properties that impact application QoE – Encourage broadband service providers to offer a variety of trades between peak bandwidth and stationarity.
  • 32. What next for regulators?• Internal education – Dispel the bandwidth myth – Raise capability to reason on network quality management• Measure and report stationarity – Allow service providers to compete on more than just (peak) bandwidth• Engage stakeholders in a dialogue on quality – Raise external awareness and provide forum for collective industry progress
  • 33. Dangerous myth:More Speed is Always Better STATIONARITY HIGH LOW SLOW FAST SPEED
  • 34. FreeFuture of Communications newsletterwww.martingeddes.com
  • 35. PREDICTABLE NETWORK Neil Davies SOLUTIONS Neil.Davies@pnsol.com Peter Thompson Peter.Thompson@pnsol.com Martin Geddes mail@martingeddes.com