Future of Voice - The new value chain

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Future of Voice - New Value Chain
Presentation that Dean Bubley and Martin Geddes gave at the Future of Voice workshop. It explores the differences between traditional telco voice services and cloud voice services and how the emergence of the latter will impact on the value chain.

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Future of Voice - The new value chain

  1. 1. Future of Voice Workshop New Value Chain 8th October 2013 Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com mail@martingeddes.com
  2. 2. Voice = Telecoms SAFETY OF LIFE TRIVIA Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  3. 3. Voice = Telecoms SAFETY OF LIFE Voice = IT Growth opportunity TRIVIA Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  4. 4. Classic telco voice SAFETY OF LIFE Hybrid voice Growth opportunity TRIVIA Oct 2013 Cloud voice Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  5. 5. Example cloud voice service    3% of population are hearingimpaired “Rich deaf” willing to be reconnected to society Telephone hearing aid adaptation in the cloud   Oct 2013 Requires assured packet network PSTN voice acts as filter Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  6. 6. Classic telco voice Hybrid voice Cloud voice VALUE FROM TRANSPORT 100% ? 0% Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  7. 7. FAST TEMPO SLOW TEMPO SAFETY OF LIFE TRIVIA Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  8. 8. TDM SAFETY OF LIFE “VoIP” and “VuIP” 100% MANAGED & ASSURED ? Growth opportunity MANAGED OR ASSURED OTT TRIVIA Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  9. 9. The end game? “Cloud voice world” SAFETY OF LIFE MANAGED OR ASSURED Legacy TRIVIA OTT WHEN & HOW? Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  10. 10. One small problem… (Almost) nobody knows how to: Make Sell Buy Legacy this capability “Cloud voice world” ASSURED CLOUD CONNECTIVITY OTT How to build digital supply chains for cloud services? Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  11. 11. Cloud voice – not so many players (yet)! WHOLESALE ACCESS SERVICE PLATFORMS INFRASTRUCTURE RETAIL ACCESS  NOBODY Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  12. 12. Voice service supply chain management  How to build a composable value chain like TDM?     How to create SLAs? To measure conformance? How to spot “cheats”? Application performance hazard space – how to model?   Need underlying transport with strong-enough timing properties. SDN/NFV – cost saint or performance sinner? When is it “good enough”? Substitute for other activities – how to make these dependable enough?  Oct 2013 Who provides service assurance? (where required & applicable) Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  13. 13. Questions I don’t (yet) have good answers to…    Speed of transition to cloud voice services Boundary between managed and OTT Application richness/application performance & quality tradeoff:   Oct 2013 Does it exist (and in which direction!) Is it worth it? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  14. 14. Questions I don’t (yet) have good answers to…      Where and when will “assured IP voice transport” emerge? How will fixed vs mobile “cloudify”? Where will this happen – US/Europe/ROW? Will there be a “tipping point” and telephony gets WhatsApp’d? Will this be driven from the telco or IT supply chain? Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  15. 15. Questions I don’t (yet) have good answers to…  Proprietary vs FOSS s/w   Supply shock to traditional telco equipment market?   Contracted in vs out – for operators; is voice a “white-label” service? What’s the role of the big IT vendors?   “How many milliseconds am I from Amazon?” – what matters is integration with cloud servers How to deal with legacy business?   Cheap raw inputs; NEPs squeezed Meaning of Oracle/Acme; Intel/Aepona, etc B2C voice & CEBP remains a wildcard  Oct 2013 Next-gen replacement for freephone? “Social voice e-commerce”? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  16. 16. More supply chain questions & issues
  17. 17. Vendors: M&A, new biz models & partnerships Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  18. 18. Two major trends in network infrastructure Virtualisation of network elements (NFV) Proprietary Hardware Commodity Hardware VMs / Private Cloud Hosted / Public Cloud Software-defined networks: separation of function from control (SDN) Control Control Function Function (Can also apply to some OSS functions) Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  19. 19. What % of future telco value comes from 3GPP? VoLTE & RCS Corporate UC Video conf Network APIs Core ntwk & legacy voice Corporate UC Video conf Developer APIs Developers IMS, eventually Cisco / MS Lync Bluejeans / Vidyo etc Twillio / Voxeo IMS as a platform Consumer Business OTTs The Theory The Reality • Various telco business units are now disintermediating their own core network / platform • Increasingly partnering with 3rd-party players for voice/video apps • What % of future equipment/server need will reside in IMS/3GPP domain vs. 3rd party equipment or cloud platforms? Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  20. 20. Exercise
  21. 21. Exercise Teenager Call centre operator -home worker Oct 2013 Travelling salesperson Grandmother Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  22. 22. Exercise      What are their use cases in 5 years’ time? What happens in their day? What do they buy? How is it packaged & sold? Who is making it happen? Oct 2013         Infrastructure? Traditional service provider or not? APIs? App on phone? Web giants involved? Device? Connectivity? Platforms? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  23. 23. Get in touch We can help you prepare for a world where voice is a feature, not a service. Find out more dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com twitter.com/disruptivedean www.disruptive-analysis.com Newsletter Oct 2013 mail@martingeddes.com Twitter.com/martingeddes www.martingeddes.com Newsletter Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

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