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South Korea Stability report
 

South Korea Stability report

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A report on South Korea's stability within the next 12-24 months.

A report on South Korea's stability within the next 12-24 months.

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    South Korea Stability report South Korea Stability report Document Transcript

    • 5236210-807720507365-914400
      South Korea Stability Report:
      -717550326390
      Land of the Morning Calm
      Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence Studies (MCIIS)
      Analyst: Mike Gallagher
      Writing For Intelligence
      November 14, 2009
      -6290945142875
      Analyst: Mike GallagherWriting for IntelligenceNovember 14, 2009
      -114564287556
      Cover Graphics:
      • S. Korean Flag:
      • http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/flags/countrys/zzzflags/krlarge.gif
      • Seoul at night:
      • http://www.fronks.net/Seoul_Panorama_at_Night.jpg
      • Missile:
      • http://www.cbc.ca/gfx/images/news/photos/2009/07/02/korea-missiles-cp-w-6953003.jpg
      • The Koreas:
      • http://www1.cw56.com/images/news_articles/389x205/061003_north_korea_south_ko.jpg
      • Section I:
      • Findings, outlook, about this document
      This Page Intentionally Left Blank.
      South Korea’s 2009 Key Finding:
      South Korea Likely To Manage An H1N1 Pandemic And Continue To Grow Economically And Deter Threats From A Nuclear North Korea
      Executive summary:
      H1N1 virus is highly likely to affect, but not impact South Korea. Highly likely South Korean government and healthcare system can support an H1N1 pandemic. South Korea is highly likely to grow economically, leading S. Korea to attempt to reduce CO2 emissions. Conversely, South Koreas destabilizing factors are its neighbors. Especially with nuclear North Korea, leading to S. Korea’s creation of a missile defense program.
      • H1N1 Population: The H1N1 virus is highly likely to hurt the South Korean education system and its students until the end of the flu season, which typically ends in March. South Korea's education-service sector shrank in the third quarter from a year earlier for the first time in a decade due probably to the fast spread of H1N1.
      • H1N1 Vaccine Availability: South Korea is highly unlikely to have enough vaccine to inoculate their entire population. South Korea is going to inoculate those in the high-risk group such as children, medical staff, the chronically ill, and pregnant woman. South Korea is using preventative measures to prevent spreading within the population.
      • H1N1 and the Government: The H1N1 virus is likely not to greatly affect the South Korean Government. The S. Korean government has taken many measures, including vaccination and preventive measures, in order to reduce the spread of the H1N1 flu. Furthermore, there are more pressing issues currently, such as North Korea, economic reform, government effectiveness, trade, and corruption.
      • H1N1 and the Health Care System: The South Korean health care system is highly likely to handle an H1N1 pandemic with the use of prevention, vaccination, quarantine, and antiviral drugs. Furthermore, with the Korean universal National Health Insurance (NHI) Korean patients can go to any doctor or any medical institution, including hospitals, which they choose.
      • Economy: South Korea’s economy is highly likely to expand through the fourth quarter. The jump in gross domestic product from the second quarter, the biggest since the first quarter of 2002, followed by an economic output that grew 2.9% in the third quarter, furthering distancing the country from the global downturn and giving the government room to tackle deeper issues.
      • Environment: South Korea will likely not meet their goal of freezing or reducing their CO2 emissions of 4 percent by 2020. Pressures from Korean businesses and the building of New Sondgdo will greatly impede South Korea’s goal.

      • Government Issue: The South Korean government will likely invite a North Korean delegation to the next G20 summit held in Seoul November 2010. North Korea’s nuclear and missile testing’s, along with other provocations, has increased pressure from regional powers trying to persuade it to abandon nuclear arms in exchange for massive aid.
      • Military: It is highly likely South Korea will have an operational missile defense program before 2012, which will include radar, launch modules, and missiles, specifically cruise missiles. Growing threats from neighboring North Korea is promoting South Korea, with help from other countries, to develop their own missile defense program not dependent on the United States.
      • Transcontinental Issue: The Liancourt rocks dispute will likely escalate. Japan’s new Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), came into office on 16 September. Japan’s political shift and economic state may lend South Korean and Japanese nationalists to once again dispute over Japan’s claim to the Liancourt rocks.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability ranges from low to high. There is minimal conflict amongst sources. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone and did not use structured analytic methods. The research was complex, but the amount of available time was adequate.

      About This Document
      This final report concludes research that lasted from September 2009 through November 2009. The aim of the report was to analyze the future of South Korea in the next 12-24 months. Areas of concern included:
      • A/H1N1 Virus in South Korea. Specifically in…
      • H1N1 and government
      • H1N1 and health care system
      • H1N1 and vaccine availability
      • H1N1 affecting a segment of the population
      • Economy
      • Government
      • Environment
      • Military
      • Transnational Issues
      Special emphasis was on the A/H1N1 Virus.
      The project assumed collections of information from all available open sources. The scope of the analyst’s interest included both historical and current developments in both Koreas. All used resources were evaluated. The analyst excluded the ones with questionable reliability.
      To further improve the quality of conclusions, in one case the analyst applied the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), a helpful structured analytic method tool that encourages open-mindedness and helps to overcome possible biases.
      The Key Findings precede the main body of the report which includes the Outlook 2009 followed by nine short form analytic reports (SFARs) and the Annex. Each SFAR contains an estimate related to one particular area of concern. The report presents the SFARs in their order of importance.
      As part of the project, the analyst set up and regularly edited a flash web site. Its address is:
      http://www.wix.com/mgalla22/lfar
      This site includes all the intermediate and final products, including this report. It also includes a power point presentation
      The scope and format of this project reflects guidelines provided during the fall 2009 Writing for Intelligence class by Professor William Welch.
      South Korea:
      Table of ContentsSection I: FindingsiiiSouth Korea 2009 Key FindingsvAbout This DocumentviSouth Korea: Table of contentsviiSouth Korea: 2009 OutlookixSection II: Short form Analytical Reports (SFARS)1 H1N1 A Government2 H1N1 A Vaccine Availability4 H1N1 A Health Care6 H1N1 A Population Sector8 South Korea Economy10 South Korea Environment12 South Korea Government Issue14 South Korea Military16 South Korea Transcontinental Issue18 South Korea Trade20Section III: Annexes23Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH): 24Words of Estimative Probability26Map of Korea27Contact Information28Analyst’s Website Information29Intelligence Collection Plan (ICP) 30
      South Korea: Outlook 2009
      South Korea Likely To Develop Its Global Influence
      Executive Summary:
      The Republic of Korea is likely to develop their global influence, mostly through economic means, within the next 12-24 months. South Korea’s move to send more troops to Afghanistan, along with willingness to trade with other countries shows South Korea is growing its international influence. Furthermore, With South Korea to host the G20 conference in 2010, along with a booming economy, will draw international attention to South Korea.
      2971800114300Discussion:
      2008- GDP per capita reached the same as that of the Czech Republic and New Zealand, leaving Koreas GDP rank 14th in the world. 2008 - South Korea promoted to developed-country status. 2007 - South Korea and the US agree on a free-trade deal after 10 months of talks. 2004 – South Korea joined the trillion-dollar clubImportant Dates for South KoreaSouth Korea is furthering its global influence, mostly through economic means. According to the International monetary Fund (IMF), Korea is considered an advanced economy and a newly industrialized country. In 2004, South Korea joined the trillion-dollar club of world economies. In 2008, its GDP per capita was roughly the same as that of the Czech Republic and New Zealand. Koreas GDP is rank 14th in the world, just behind Australia.
      2010 – G20 summit held in Seoul, South Korea. 2009- Korea intends to expand a South Korean team, which will help to rebuild the country of Afghanistan. South Korea also plans to deploy troops to Afghanistan to protect its nationals working in humanitarian organizations within the country. Seoul expected to deploy over 200 soldiers and some 20 police officers early next year to expand its Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Afghanistan.
      New Songdo City's International Business District’s Northeast Asia Trade Tower.Source: http://www.answers.com/topic/incheon According to the United States trade representative, the United States and the Republic of Korea signed the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) on June 30, 2007. If approved, the Agreement would be the United States' most commercially significant free trade agreement in more than 16 years. The U.S. International Trade Commission estimates that the reduction of Korean tariffs and tariff-rate quotas on goods alone would add $10 billion to $12 billion to annual U.S. Gross Domestic Product and around $10 billion to annual merchandise exports to Korea. However, the trade agreement has yet to be signed. The US-Korean trade agreement may be brought up in the G20 summit that South Korea will be hosting November 2010.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability ranges from medium to high. Sources are not in conflict. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone and used structured analytic methods once. The subject is simple and the deadline was easy to meet.
      About the analyst:
      This report is written by Mike Gallagher, a student (ID: 0338922) at the Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence Studies (MCIIS). Mr. Gallagher is a sophomore at Mercyhurst College, a member of the Reserve Officer Training Corp (ROTC) and a varsity rower for the Mercyhurst Rowing Team.
      Signature_____________________________
      Michael B. Gallagher
      Undergraduate Analyst, MCIIS
      Date: 11/16/2009
      Section II:
      Short Form Analytic Reports (SFARs)
      South Korea: Government
      H1N1 Likely Not To Severely Impact South Korean Government
      Executive Summary:
      The H1N1 virus is likely not to greatly affect the South Korean Government. The S. Korean government has taken many measures, including vaccination and preventive measures, in order to reduce the spread of the H1N1 flu. Furthermore, there are more pressing issues currently, such as North Korea, economic reform, government effectiveness, trade, and corruption.
      Discussion:
      " The government should keep an eye on the vaccination program so as to avoid any illegal transactions related to vaccines" - President Lee Myung-bak Source: http://tinyurl.com/yg2cmeh 2444115104775The South Korean government raised the nation's disease alert level against the A/H1N1 influenza from the second highest to the top level as the pace of the virus spread is growing faster, health authorities said Monday November 2. However, According to a statement by the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Family Affairs (MHWFA) on October 30, 34 out of an estimated 100,000 people that have been infected by H1N1 have died, thus the mortality rate is 0.03 percent. Furthermore, the mortality rate from H1N1 is lower than that from seasonal influenza, and this has been confirmed not only in South Korea but also around the world. According to the government's plan, around 35 percent of the country's 49 million people will be vaccinated, with infants and elders, those highly vulnerable to the virus, being the top priority.
      South Korean President Lee Myung-bak ordered his government on Monday November 2 to take all means necessary to fight the fast spread of Influenza A/H1N1 and to assure his people that the government is already taking measures in need. President Lee said on October 28 that " Flu prevention, vaccination, and treatment are top priority for the country as for now.” President Lee Myung-bak called for full coordination between ministries and local governments. The government will set up a Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters at the Ministry of Public Administration, and regional authorities will establish their own control centers.
      The issues currently facing the S. Korean government and politics are North Korea, economic reform, government effectiveness, trade, and corruption. North Korea's second nuclear test in May and always-unpredictable behavior have raised tensions on the peninsula.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability ranges from low to high. There is no conflict amongst sources. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone and did not use structured analytic methods. The subject is not complex and the deadline was easy to meet.
      South Korea: H1N1 Vaccine Availability
      South Korea Highly Likely To Lack H1N1 Vaccine Availability
      Executive Summary:
      It is highly likely South Korea does not have enough vaccine to inoculate their entire population. South Korea is going to inoculate those in the high-risk group such as children, medical staff, the chronically ill, and pregnant woman. South Korea is using preventative measures to prevent spreading within the population.
      Discussion:
      Eggs being candled to evaluate their quality. Left egg is healthy. The right egg is unhealthy and will be removed from the batch. Source: http://tinyurl.com/yf68s77 2003425148590South Korea plans to inoculate 27 percent of the population. The first inoculations will go towards one million medical staff, 7.5 million schoolchildren and 660,000 soldiers, senior citizens, pregnant women and children below five years. Furthermore, Korea will be giving the vaccine free to the groups named above. All others will have to pay approximately USD 8.03 per vaccination. 1492 cases of H1N1 have been found through South Korea, but only 14 have died thus far.
      The production capacity of the H1N1 vaccine this year could be much lower than the 10 million doses predicted, due to difficulties in finding enough chicken eggs suitable to make its vaccine. In addition, the procedure used for producing H1N1 vaccine has a lower yield than for more traditional vaccines.
      The South Korean government also removed the value-added taxes to the new vaccines and medicines meant for treating H1N1. Health authorities approved a revised tax law to provide vaccines and other cures for treating flu patients without the value-added tax until 2010 to minimize financial burden of those who become infected.
      The Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDCP) are taking preventive measures in order to prevent the spread of H1N1 in South Korea. The measures taken are early detection, promotion of precautionary measures against H1N1 to the public, securing antiviral medications and N95 masks.
      South Korean authorities guarantee Green Cross pharmaceuticals will deliver 50 percent of the vaccine supply. To fill the other 50 percent will be Sinovac Biotech; a Chinese biopharmaceutical company who signed an agreement with Boryung Pharmaceutical, a Korean manufacturer of pharmaceuticals, to collaborate on marketing efforts and vaccine supply efforts to the government of South Korea for Sinovac's H1N1 vaccine.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability ranges from low to high. There is no conflict amongst sources. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone and did use structured analytic methods. The subject is not complex and the deadline was easy to meet.
      South Korea: H1N1 a Health Care
      S. Korean Health Care system Likely To Handle An H1N1 Pandemic
      Executive Summary:
      The South Korean health care system is highly likely to handle an H1N1 pandemic with the use of prevention, vaccination, quarantine, and antiviral drugs. Furthermore, with the Korean universal National Health Insurance (NHI) Korean patients can go to any doctor or any medical institution, including hospitals, which they choose.
      Discussion:
      The structure of the National Health Insurance Program (NHI) Source: http://tinyurl.com/yfb4y5f 241300012700Amid a recent surge in patients infected with the H1N1, the South Korean government on Tuesday October 27 reaffirmed its strong will to prevent the further spread of the illness. The South Korean government is stockpiling antiviral drugs and vaccines in preparation for a possible spike in infections. The plan is to vaccinate 35 percent of the country's 49 million people, with those deemed highly-vulnerable including quarantine staff given priority. On Wednesday October 21, the Korea Food and Drug Administration approved the country's first influenza A vaccine, Green Flu-S, which was developed domestically by South Korea's Green Cross Corp. Furthermore, the Korean president Lee Myung-bak said “the government must make its utmost effort to secure a sufficient supply of treatment drugs, including Tamiflu." Top priority for inoculation would go to groups who are vulnerable to the influenza A virus such as young students, children, babies, pregnant women and the elderly in accordance to the government plan.
      South Korea, having the fourth largest economy in Asia and 13th largest in the world, can handle a universal health care system, which took twelve years in the making. With the NHI, Participation is compulsory, insurance coverage is universal, insurance benefits are standardized, the government is the primary payer, and physician fees are standardized. A major problem concerning healthcare resources in South Korea is regional disparities in medical services. Most private medical facilities are located in urban areas, and around 90% of physicians are concentrated in cities while 80% of the population lives in urban areas. Also, South Korea is becoming an aging society faster than any other country. In line with the increase in the elderly population, there has been an increase in medical expenditure for chronic degenerative diseases, which has become a large social burden. The National Health Insurance Program has three sources of funding: contributions, government subsidies, and tobacco surcharges.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability ranges from low to high. There is no conflict amongst sources. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone and did not use structured analytic methods. The subject is not complex and the deadline was easy to meet.
      South Korea: H1N1 a Population
      H1N1 Is Highly Likely To Hurt South Korea Education
      Executive Summary:
      The H1N1 virus is highly likely to hurt the South Korean education system until the end of the flu season, which typically ends in March. South Korea's education-service sector shrank in the third quarter from a year earlier for the first time in a decade due probably to the fast spread of H1N1.
      3367405279400Discussion:
      An example of the swine flue alert scale. S. Korea’s current status is red. Source: http://tinyurl.com/yz26tk8 Seoul's educational authorities said Saturday November 1 that they have set guidelines on temporary school closure to prevent the rapid spread of Influenza A among young students. Thus far, Nearly 400 schools across the country have closed voluntarily due to outbreaks that are mostly infecting young adults and children. Schools have closed in reaction to the South Korean ministry of health, welfare and family affairs raising the swine flu alert level to its highest status (red) due to the rapid spread of the viral disease in the country Tuesday November 3. According to the guidelines, which came into effect on Saturday October 31, headmasters of primary and secondary schools in Seoul can decide to suspend a class when 10 percent of its students are confirmed to be infected with the new flu or 25 percent are suspected to have contracted the virus. According to an assessment by the Central Swine Influenza Crisis Center CSICC, 878 cases of H1N1 were reported from Oct. 19 to Oct. 24, 1.5 times the 384 total number of cases reported the previous week. Schools originated 870 out of 878 of the reported cases, and of which, 356 were from elementary schools.
      According to the data by the Bank of Korea (BOK), the gross domestic product (GDP) of the nation's education industry contracted 0.1 percent on-year in the July-September quarter, the first fall since the first quarter of 1999. " If the flu develops into a pandemic, it is forecast to drive down the country's GDP by 0.8 to 7.8 percentage points," Lim Hee-jung, an analyst at Hyundai Research Institute said.
      The H1N1 virus may have caused the negative growth, a Bank of Korea official said, as students refrained from exposure to big gatherings. Since the first local outbreak in May forced local schools to close classes and delay student gatherings. The death toll from the flu reached 48 as of Friday November 6. Conversely, The Korea Food and Drug Administration said on Wednesday November 4 it had approved Green Cross's H1N1 flu vaccine for children and teenagers, and vaccinations in schools would begin next Wednesday November 11.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability ranges from low to high. There is minimal conflict amongst sources. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone and did not use structured analytic methods. The subject is not complex and the deadline was easy to meet.
      South Korea: Economy
      Highly Likely South Korean Economy To Expand During 4th Quarter
      Executive Summary:
      South Korea’s economy is highly likely to expand through the fourth quarter. The jump in gross domestic product from the second quarter, the biggest since the first quarter of 2002, followed by an economic output that grew 2.9% in the third quarter, furthering distancing the country from the global downturn and giving the government room to tackle deeper issues.
      Discussion:
      The country's foreign exchange reserves are expected to have a record-breaking month as a weakening dollar has boosted the value of assets in other currencies.Source: http://tinyurl.com/yzu46ur 3155315128270South Korea's foreign exchange reserves rose nearly $10 billion in October to the second largest amount on record as Asia's fourth-largest economy quickly pulled out of the global financial crisis. South Korean foreign reserves rose by $9.94 billion to $264.19 billion at the end of October, just shy of a record-high $264.25 billion hit in March last year, the central bank said in a statement on Tuesday November 3. Furthermore, South Korean manufacturing, trade and price data for October suggested its economic recovery was moderating, making the authorities increasingly likely to postpone any interest rate increase until next year. Also, South Korea’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) posted 52.5 in October, marginally down from September’s figure of 52.7. Nonetheless, the PMI signaled solid growth of the South Korean manufacturing sector, and extended the sequence of sustained improvement in business conditions to eight months. Despite an easing in the PMI for a third consecutive month, the rate of expansion remained above the historical average for the series.
      The South Korean people are buying. Confidence at South Korean manufacturers rose to a seven-year high in October, the central bank said Thursday November 12, the latest in a series of figures that highlight an improving economy. Purchasing activity also increased, and negatively affected the supplier’s ability to process higher orders, leading to longer delivery times. Stocks of pre-production inventory were depleted further in order to fulfill output requirements. However, South Korea's economy remains in the " recovery phase" as exports, consumption and other indicators are rebounding fast, driven in part by eased instability in overseas markets, a state-run think tank said Sunday November 8. " As the rising export trend continues in the Korean economy, private consumption and investment improved substantially, maintaining the overall economy in the recovery phase," the Korea Development Institute (KDI) said in its monthly economy-assessment report.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability ranges from low to high. There is minimal conflict amongst sources. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone and did use structured analytic methods. The subject is not complex and the deadline was easy to meet.
      South Korea: Environment
      Highly Likely S. Korea Will Not Meet Goal Of 4% CO2 Emissions Cut
      Executive Summary:
      South Korea will likely not meet their goal of freezing or reducing their CO2 emissions of 4 percent by 2020. Pressures from Korean businesses and the building of New Sondgdo will greatly impede South Korea’s goal.
      Discussion:
      Desighn for New Songdo City, set to be completed by 2015.Source: http://tinyurl.com/ygudvfa 1941830103505South Korea, the ninth-biggest carbon emitter among Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member nations, will consider either a freeze or a 4 percent cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 from 2005 levels (594 million tons of carbon dioxide emitted in 2005). The Ministry of Knowledge Economy reported that South Korea's per capita CO2 output of 10.1 tons ranked it 23rd place worldwide, up from 25th place in 2006, adding that South Korea's CO2 emissions grew 113 percent from 1990 through 2007, the largest percentage increase among OECD member states.
      South Korea will not be able to meet the 4 percent target goal since “most Korean companies want a lower target because a deeper target will place a big burden on industries including steel, petrochemical and oil refining”, said Park Tae Jin, head of the Korea Chamber of Commerce & Industry’s sustainable business institute. “It will need a lot of effort to achieve any of these targets as the country’s energy demand is still rising and economic growth remains faster than developed countries,” says said Kang Hee Chan, chief researcher at the Samsung Economic Research Institute in Seoul. Furthermore, Asia’s fourth-largest economy will grow 3.6 percent next year, according to International Monetary Fund estimates. In addition, South Korea, as the world's fifth-largest automaker, is heavily dependent on exports of manufactured goods and petroleum products to drive its economy.
      New Sondgdo City, which will be built on 1,500 acres of land reclaimed from the Yellow Sea off Incheon, about 35 miles from the South's capital Seoul, will likely prevent S. Korea from reaching the 4 percent CO2 reduction target. New Songdo City is billed as the largest private real estate development in history. Korea's answer to Shanghai and Dubai is set to be completed by 2015.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability ranges from low to high. There is no conflict amongst sources. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone and did use structured analytic methods. The subject is not complex and the deadline was easy to meet.
      South Korea: Government
      S. Korean Government Likely To Invite N. Korea To Next G20 Summit
      Executive Summary:
      The South Korean government will likely invite a North Korean delegation to the next G20 summit held in Seoul November 2010. North Korea’s nuclear and missile testing’s, along with other provocations, has increased pressure from regional powers trying to persuade it to abandon nuclear arms in exchange for massive aid.
      Discussion:
      An undated photo of a South Korean navy boat, the same type of vessel that was involved in a naval clash with North Korea on Monday November 9. Source: http://tinyurl.com/yjprqc6 2095500185420Demonstrating its military resolve this year, North Korea has test-fired missiles and detonated a nuclear device, drawing United Nations sanctions. But it has recently begun reaching out for talks with the United States and South Korea. Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun says a North Korean delegation may be invited to the G20 meeting that South Korea will host in November 2010. Yoon says " it is customary for the chairperson of the annual meeting to invite a few non-members to the gathering although no decision has been reached on the guest countries for next year”. He said that asking North Korea to attend the G20 as an observer is one of many options that can be explored.
      The North has faced chronic food shortages and depended on outside aid to help feed its 23 million people since bad weather and mismanagement destroyed its economy in the mid-1990s. For a decade, South Korea was one of biggest donors to the impoverished North. But the flow of aid from Seoul stopped when President Lee Myung-bak took office last year, saying any help depended on North Korea's denuclearization. The South Korean capital will host a Group of 20 (G20) summit in November next year, says Sakong Il, former economic affairs adviser to President Lee Myung-bak, Monday November 9. About 35 heads of state, as well as more than 10,000 other participants are expected to join in at the conference, Sakong added.
      The two Koreas, the United States, Japan, Russia and China are members of six-way talks. However, Pyongyang had walked away from the talks but has hinted that it may return if it can hold bilateral talks with Washington to resolve outstanding differences. The six-party talks could influence the G20 economies that account for roughly 70 percent of all trade with the North, to take part in any trade restrictions down the road.
      A recent sea engagement by North Korea will also likely bring them to the G20 table on November 2010. The first naval clash between the two sides in seven years broke out Monday October 9, just a week before President Barack Obama is due to visit Seoul, raising suspicions the North's communist regime is trying to ratchet up tensions to gain a negotiating advantage. North Korea warned South Korea on Thursday that a rash of " reckless" incursions at their disputed maritime border could spark a naval clash.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability ranges from low to high. There is no conflict amongst sources. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone and did use structured analytic methods. The subject is not complex and the deadline was easy to meet.

      South Korea: Military
      S. Korea Highly Likely To Improve Missile Defense Capabilities
      Executive Summary:
      It is highly likely South Korea will have an operational missile defense program before 2012, which will include radar, launch modules, and missiles, specifically cruise missiles. Growing threats from neighboring North Korea is promoting South Korea, with help from other countries, to develop their own missile defense program not dependent on the United States.
      Discussion:
      North Korean Missiles that pose a threat to South korea and its neighbors. Source: http://tinyurl.com/ygjvxoh 209994531115The domestically built missile ‘Hyunmu’ has a range of up to 300 kilometers (186 miles).South Korea would set up the Air and Missile Defense-Cell (AMD-Cell), a missile defense command and control center, by 2012 to track incoming cruise and ballistic missiles from North Korea. The Seoul government would spend USD 214 million to establish the AMD-Cell, capable of monitoring moves related to North Korea's missiles around the clock, according to sources at the S. Korean Ministry of National Defense. The command-and-control center will be a core part of South Korea's air and missile defense (KAMD) network system, an independent low-tier theater missile shield, to enter service by 2012, when three 7,600-ton Aegis destroyers, who will be carrying American-made SM-6 missiles, will enter service.
      Seoul agreed to restrain its ballistic missiles to a maximum range of 186 miles as part of its pact with the United States, which has 28,500 soldiers stationed in South Korea and maintains a strategic arms " umbrella" over the South in the event of another war. South Korean officials have said that the pact does not address cruise missiles, which fly at medium speeds and closer to the ground. South Korea is reportedly preparing cruise missiles with a 932-mile range as it seeks to bolster its defenses against North Korea.
      U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates confirmed on Oct 23 that there would be no delays in the planned transition of wartime operational control to South Korea from the United States. This move would entail the dismantling of the Combined Forces Command. The transfer date is currently set for April of 2012.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability ranges from low to high. There is no conflict amongst sources. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone and did not use structured analytic methods. The subject is not complex and the deadline was easy to meet.
      South Korea: Transcontinental Issue
      Liancourt Rocks Dispute Likely To Escalate
      Executive Summary:
      The Liancourt rocks dispute will likely escalate. Japan’s new Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), came into office on 16 September. Japan’s political shift and economic state may lend South Korean and Japanese nationalists to once again dispute over Japan’s claim to the Liancourt rocks.
      Discussion:
      Liancourt Rocks (Korean Dokdo, Japannese Takeshima) shown in the Sea of Japan (East Sea). Source: http://tinyurl.com/ydsmh87 1851025115570South Korea’s long-standing dispute with Japan continues concerning which nation exercises sovereignty over a group of small islands located off the east coast of South Korea. South Korean claims sovereignty over what they call Dokdo, while the Japanese maintain that the islets are theirs, calling them Takeshima. South Korea currently administers this collection of 90 islands and reefs in the Sea of Japan, or the East Sea according to the Koreans.
      Japan had a significant change in power on 16 September. The ruling conservative party, known as The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), lost their 54-year reign in Japan to the DPJ. This change in parties will highly likely change Japans foreign relations with the United States and countries in East Asia, especially with Korea.
      Hatoyama’s position does not differ from the LDP when it comes to sovereignty over Korea's Dokdo islets. The DPJ is full of lawmakers whose views on Japan's wartime history do not differ from the views of LDP members. Japanese and Korean nationalism is likely on a high due to economic stress on both economies. The Liancourt Rocks dispute is very similar to that of the Falkland Islands. General Leopoldo Galtieri, who became head of the Argentinian Government in December 1981, invaded the Falklands mostly because Argentina was going through a severe economic crisis. South Korea and Japan are in the same situation as Argentina in 1981.
      Japan celebrates Takeshima day on 21 February. Takeshima Day was established in 2005 by the government in response to angry fishermen protesting against being excluded from fishing around the Takeshima/Dokdo islands. The purpose of the holiday is to encourage the central government to take stronger steps to ensure Japanese sovereignty of the island.Protests and an escalation in the Liancourt rocks dispute is highly likely for next Takeshima day.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability ranges from medium to high. There is conflict amongst sources between Japan and South Korea. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone and did not use structured analytic methods. The subject is moderately complex and the deadline was reasonable to meet.
      South Korea: Trade
      Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement Unlikely To Pass
      Executive Summary:
      The Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS-FTA) will likely not pass due to US President Barrack Obama’s indifference on the trade agreement, signed more than two years ago. Furthermore, the US Congress is in a deadlock on whether to pass the agreement. In addition, there is decent on the trade agreement from citizens in both the Unites States and South Korea.

      Discussion:
      More than 10,000 workers rallied in Seoul on March 2006 to demand the revocation of a planned free trade agreement (FTA) between South Korea and the United States. Source: http://www.life.com/image/57185095 267144583820The lack of progress on a the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement will likely will be a sore point during US President Barack Obama's stop in Seoul next week during President Obama’s scheduled visit to spend Wednesday and Thursday (November 18-19) in South Korea. South Korea wants President Obama to push more aggressively for approval of a free trade agreement the two countries signed more than two years ago, a Seoul official said Monday November 2. Conversely, Autos and beef have been major hurdles to US approval of the FTA, which would be the largest US trade pact since the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico.
      However, the director of the Center for U.S-Korea Policy, says attitudes toward the U.S. and its new president have also warmed. “Over 80 percent of Koreans have stated they trust Obama to deal with issues and foreign affairs," he said. " That is comparable to President Bush's 30 percent from a similar survey from the last year
      Nonetheless, when President Obama ran as a Candidate he was against the Korean trade agreement. Furthermore, Obama is expected to skillfully dance around this one remaining sore point in U.S.-ROK relations: the failure of his administration to deliver on the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement. in addition, the Obama administration recognizes the potential economic benefits of the U.S.-Korea free-trade agreement, but wants to ensure that concerns over American autos and beef are addressed before moving forward with the pact, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk said Thursday." We are not standing still," Kirk said in a speech to the U.S.-Korea Business Council. " However, we need to be mindful that important stakeholders have real concerns with this agreement," Kirk said.
      The United States Congress has resisted passing free trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama negotiated under President Bush despite a commitment to free trade.  " There are substantive issues that must be resolved with each of the trade agreements before they can be teed up," said US Commerce Secretary Gary Locke. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke also said Obama has an ambitious high-priority legislative agenda focusing on health care, financial regulation and alternative energy." Trade agreements are going to have to wait," he said at a luncheon hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore. " Right now, the administration is focused on a very aggressive and very tight legislative agenda."
      According to Chung Min Lee, Dean of International Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul says Seoul is playing a greater role in the Group of 20 economic summits. South Korea will be hosting the 2010 G20 meeting, redeploying forces to Afghanistan, and and increasing overseas development assistance. However, to play a constructive part in the future alliance with the U.S., Seoul has to support more fully democratic institutions in Asia by providing concrete financial and diplomatic assistance, and must step up economic reforms at home to boost its prosperity. As for the US, continuing to delay the passage of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement will only elevate tensions between both countries.
      Analytic Confidence:
      Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. Source reliability ranges from low to high. There is minimal conflict amongst sources. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone and did not use structured analytic methods. The subject is not complex and the deadline was easy to meet.
      This Page Intentionally Left Blank.
      Section III:
      Annexes
      Annex 1:
      Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH)
      102806515240
      1028065234315
      Annex 2:
      Analysis of Competing Hypothesis Graph
      81915014605
      Prduced using Palo Alto research Center Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) software.
      Annex 3: Words of Estimative Probability
      Italics – Never Use
      Bold – Use
      Normal – Use with caution
      Almost certain virtually certainall but certainhighly probablehighly likelyodds [or chances] overwhelming Probable likelywe believewe estimate 50-50 chances about evenchances a little better [or less]than evenimprobableunlikely Probably notwe believe that . . . notwe estimate that . . . notwe doubt, doubtful Almost certainly not virtually impossiblealmost impossiblesome slight chancehighly doubtful
      Source: http://www.cia.gov/csi/books/shermankent/6words.html
      6667522860
      Source: www.tinyurl.com/yez8ime - Office of the Director of National Intelligence

      Annex 4:
      Map of South Korea
      60960377825
      Source: http://www.transitionsabroad.com/images/maps/south_korea.map.gif
      Annex 5: Contact InformationAnalyst: Mike GallagherClass: Writing for IntelligenceDate: 18 November 2009Contact Information:Mgalla22@mercyhurst.edu(301) 537-5198MCIIS Undergraduate Class of 201251009557641590-555625-595630
      Annex 6: South Korea Website
      Produced by the Analyst
      www.wix.com/mgalla22/lfar-736270314309
      3350895133350
      517525264160
      -61595136525
      3344636203489

      Annex 7: South Korea ICP
      Purpose
      Source Name
      TitleID
      Type of SourceIntelligence TypePeriodicity
      UtilityTimeSource Reliability
      Comments
      Economics
      Associated Press
      http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hIu6mz3SrntcMEIje69M2EUUgE3Q72
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful9
      Associated Press
      http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gy1mKItlgYLU0UjTZgC9SxRb0fjQD71
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful9
      Associated Press
      http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jjz-57
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Not Useful1
      404- Article Not found - REMOVED
      BioSpectrum
      http://www.biospectrumasia.com/Content/030909KOR10526.asp22
      Institutional WebsiteOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful8
      Bloomberg
      http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=ag7ykt9K2cE450
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful8
      Bloomberg
      http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=ag7ykt9K2cE4b51
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful8
      CIA World Fact Book
      https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ks.html2
      Government WebsiteOpen Sourceoften
      Highly Useful9
      Forbes
      http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/11/02/afx7072677.html43
      Online News SourceOpen Sourceoften
      Highly Useful9
      Forbes
      http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/11/02/afx7076076.html42
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Useful9
      Forbes
      http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/10/28/business-industrials-as-skorea-45
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful9
      globalsecurity.com
      http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/091114507-obama-message-to-asia-americas.htm74
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Highly Useful5
      International Monetary Fund
      http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/weodata/groups.htm#ae1
      Institutional WebsiteOpen Sourcenot often
      Highly Useful10
      Maeil Buisness News
      http://news.mk.co.kr/newsReadEnglish.php?sc=30800006&cm=English%20News_&year=205
      Online NewspaperOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful7
      Office of United states Trade Represenative
      http://www.ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/korus-fta4
      Government WebsiteOpen Sourceoften
      Highly Useful9
      ReliablePlant
      http://www.reliableplant.com/article.aspx?articleid=20968&pagetitle=Index+shows+solid+gro46
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful5
      RelliablePlant
      44
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful5
      Reuters Multimedia News Agency
      http://www.reuters.com/article/deborahCohen/idUSTRE58A0H02009091115
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful9
      Reuters Multimedia News Agency
      http://www.reuters.com/article/deborahCohen/idUSTRE58A0H02009091118
      Online News SourceOpen Sourceoften
      Useful9
      Reuters Multimedia News Agency
      http://www.reuters.com/article/deborahCohen/idUSTRE58A0H02009091121
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful8
      Reuters Multimedia News Agency
      http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssHealthcareNews/idUSSEO1453522009110540
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful5
      Songdo IBD, Gale International
      http://www.songdo.com/default.aspx?aspxerrorpath=/songdo-international-business-53
      Corporate WebsiteOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful8
      The Examiner
      http://www.examiner.com/x-30067-Knoxville-Headlines-Examiner~y2009m11d14-76
      Online NewspaperOpen Sourceoften
      Useful6
      The Wall Street Jounal
      http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091105-725823.html75
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Useful9
      The Wall Street Jounal
      http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704402404574528921733982480.html77
      Online NewspaperOpen Sourceoften
      Highly Useful8
      The Wall Street Jounal
      http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125651482563207031.html41
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful8
      VOA News
      http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-11-14-voa25.cfm73
      Online News SourceOpen Sourceoften
      Highly Useful8
      Yonhap News Agency
      http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2009/11/08/91/0502000000AEN2009110800070047
      Online News SourceOpen Sourceoften
      Highly Useful6
      Yonhap News Agency
      http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2009/10/21/2/0301000000AEN2009102100540024
      Online News SourceOpen Sourceoften
      Highly Useful10

      Yonhap News Agency
      http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2009/10/23/6/0401000000AEN20091023006255
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful9
      Military
      Associated Press
      http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g8-60
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful7
      Defense News
      http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=395205462
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful8
      NTI Global Security
      http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20091015_6275.php63
      Online News SourceOpen Sourceoften
      Highly Useful6
      RIA Novosti - Russian News Source
      http://en.rian.ru/world/20091030/156647747.html3
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful5
      The Korea Herald
      http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/NEWKHSITE/data/html_dir/2009/10/23/200910230042.asp64
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful8
      Political
      Reuters Multimedia News Agency
      http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSSP48426414
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful10
      Choson Ilbo News
      http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2009/09/02/2009090200916.html68
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful5
      globalsecurity.com
      http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/liancourt.htm65
      Online News SourceOpen Sourceoften
      Highly Useful9
      JoongAng Ilbo News
      http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=291008867
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful8
      JoongAng Ilbo News
      http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=291212213
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Not Useful6
      Malaysian National News Agency
      http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsindex.php?id=44063919
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful7
      Track.In News
      http://trak.in/news/seoul-to-host-g20-summit-next-year/21673/58
      BlogOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful6
      Xinhua News Agency
      http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-10/26/content_12331180.htm9
      Online News SourceOpen Sourceoften
      Useful8
      Xinhua News Agency
      http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-10/26/content_12331180.htm10
      Online News SourceOpen Sourceoften
      Useful8
      Xinhua News Agency
      http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-10/28/content_12348661.htm11
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful8
      Xinhua News Agency
      http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-11/02/content_12372982.htm6
      Online News SourceOpen Sourceoften
      Useful8
      Yonhap News Agency
      http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2009/08/24/75/0301000000AEN200908240075026
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful9

      Yonhap News Agency
      http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2009/11/03/54/0302000000AEN200911030058012
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful10
      Social
      American Journal of Public Health
      http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1447690/28
      Institutional WebsiteOpen Sourcenot often
      Highly Useful8
      Asia News Network
      http://www.asianewsnet.net/news.php?id=8415&sec=1423
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful8
      Associated press
      http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jjz-61
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Not Useful1
      404- File Not Found- REMOVED
      boston.com
      http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/02/dokdo_or_takeshima.html66
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Highly Useful7
      EPIK
      http://www.epik.go.kr/board/detail.epik?num=264&pageIndex=2&bid=120
      Institutional WebsiteOpen Sourcenot often
      Highly Useful7
      International Medical Community
      http://www.med.or.jp/english/journal/pdf/2009_03/206_209.pdf30
      Online JournalOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful10
      International Medical Community
      http://www.med.or.jp/english/journal/pdf/2009_03/206_209.pdf31
      Online JournalOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful10
      Kazakhstan News
      http://www.kazakhstannews.net/story/56146734
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful6
      Manhattan Research
      29
      Research CenterOpen Sourcenot often
      Highly Useful6
      New Tang Dynasty Television
      http://english.ntdtv.com/ntdtv_en/ns_asia/2009-11-03/689486376367.html33
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful7
      occidentalism.org
      http://www.occidentalism.org/?p=50770
      BlogOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful5

      Reuters Multimedia News Agency
      http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-52
      Online News SourceOpen Sourceoften
      Highly Useful10
      Thaindian News
      http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/health1/south-korea-to-provide-free-swine-flu-16
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      useful7
      Thaindian News
      http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/health1/south-korea-to-provide-free-swine-flu-17
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful7
      The Hankyoreh Media Company
      http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/384154.html36
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful8
      The Hankyoreh Media Company
      http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/385100.html7
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Useful7
      The Hankyoreh Media Company
      http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/385100.html8
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Useful7
      The Korea Herold
      http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/NEWKHSITE/data/html_dir/2009/11/06/200911060038.asp48
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Useful8
      The korea Times
      http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2009/10/202_54044.html25
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful4
      The Korean Times
      http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2009/10/202_54044.html27
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful4
      The New York Times
      http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/27/world/asia/27korea.html?_r=256
      Online NewspaperOpen Sourceoften
      Highly Useful6
      The New York Times
      http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/27/world/asia/27korea.html?_r=354
      Online NewspaperOpen Sourceoften
      Highly Useful8
      UPI
      http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2009/10/13/South-Korea-tackles-CO2-49
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful6

      War On Bull
      http://waronbull.blogspot.com/2009/07/dokdo-very-politicized-piece-of-69
      BlogOpen Sourceoften
      Useful5
      Xinhua News Agency
      http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-11/06/content_12398812.htm39
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Not Useful1
      404- File Not Found - REMOVED
      Yonhap News Agency
      http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2009/10/28/72/0503000000AEN2009102800440037
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful10
      Yonhap News Agency
      http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2009/10/28/72/0503000000AEN2009102800440038
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcevery often
      Highly Useful9
      Yonhap News Agency
      http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2009/10/31/38/0302000000AEN200910310026032
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful8
      Yonhap News Agency
      http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2009/10/31/38/0302000000AEN200910310026035
      Online News SourceOpen Sourceoften
      Highly Useful9
      Yonhap News Agency
      http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2009/11/02/8/0401000000AEN20091102001659
      Online News SourceOpen Sourcenot often
      Useful7
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