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Exam3 M.Gallagher
 

Exam3 M.Gallagher

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    Exam3 M.Gallagher Exam3 M.Gallagher Presentation Transcript

    • 27630111703099435Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence studiesAnalyst: Mike Gallagher Burglary Crime series Analysis -171450325374058540653158490Los Angeles Police Department -812800-261620
      About This Document
      Mike Gallagher, a sophomore in the Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence Studies program, prepared this report for Prof. David Grabelski. This Report serves to analyze a serial burglar who has been committing burglaries from 11/4/2008 to 12/21/2009. The taskings for this report were given on January 4, 2010 and the final product was completed on January 18, 2009. The analytical confidence for this assessment is high. Source reliability is high. There is no conflict amongst sources. The analyst had low expertise, worked alone and did not use structured analytical methods. The analysis was simple and the amount of time available was sufficient.
      To contact the Analyst or to review this report along with other reports prepared by the analyst, please visit the analyst’s website at www.mciismgallagher.com. The pass-code for the website is 3-0-1-7.
      Mike Gallagher
      1/18/2010
      5663565306705
      259080120015

      Table of ContentsProcess & Analysis4-5Time6-7Location8-11Behavior12-15Victim16-17Raw Data18-21Administrative22-23
      Process
      Analytical Tools
      2381250287020
      Analysis
      -1600200100330
      Final Product5331460166370
      Raw Data
      AnalysisBurglar’s next target will likely be either a pharmacy or a sporting goods retailer. The burglar will likely strike a pharmacy.
      Monday or Tuesday,1/4/101/19/100045 0407
      736600107950
      Burglar is creating a counter-clockwise pattern. Forecast the next break-in to be through the window.
      Area around the 9th and 19th burglary and possibly around the area of the 7th and 8th burglary
      377190066675-158750-218440
      1355090197485
      102743069856695440129540
      Time
      AnalysisThe burglar is highly likely to strike on either a Monday or Tuesday between the times of 0045 and 0407, specifically between the dates of 1/4/10 and 1/19/10. The analyst considers the next burglary to be on 1/4/10 as shown on the “Possible Dates” sheet and the time of the burglary to be around 0300, which is shown on the Date/Time sheet. -10854263795
      -254635281305
      3053080315595Los Angeles Police Department Serial Commercial BurglariesAnalyst: Mike GallagherRIAP 276January 18, 2010
      379095765810
      -257397-457200
      Forecast
      Hot Spots: Elevated High Medium Low : White= AnchorLocationLocation
      Medium RiskAnalysisThe burglar is likely to strike around the area of the 9th and 19th burglary and possibly around the area of the 7th and 8th burglary. Hot spots suggest the burglar may strike around the Elevated Risk areas. However, behavioral analysis (Page 12) forecasts the burglar will likely strike around the area of the 9th and 19th burglary. If the burglar’s next burglary is similar to 12th, 13th, and 14th burglary, then the attack may be near the 7th and 8th burglary. Conversely, the average distance from the 20th burglary may be around 2.1 miles. However, the burglar’s max distance between burglaries is 6.27 miles and his mileage between burglaries is increasing. -527050-400050
      High Risk
      Forecast
      Anchor
      Los Angeles Police Department Serial Commercial BurglariesAnalyst: Mike GallagherRIAP 276January 18, 2010Elevated Risk
      294374134763Low Risk
      4069715186690-459105245110
      20786197185
      -459740-457835
      Forecast
      -332105-372745
      -228600-419100
      Forecast
      Behavior
      321Cycle # 11/4/20085/19/2009 5/19/200910/12/2009 10/12/200912/21/2009 Centrum/ Anchor
      AnalysisIt is highly likely the burglar is creating a counter-clockwise pattern. The burglar rotates counterclockwise outward first, then back in and out again as shown by the map on the left. Using this rotational pattern the analyst predicted the next burglary would occur in the area towards the 9th and 19th burglary. However, if the burglar where to repeat the anomaly that is burglary # 12, 13, and 14, then next burglary will likely occur near the area of the 7th and 8th burglary. Furthermore, the burglar’s M.O is using a pry bar. Most of the time the burglar’s break ins through the rear door instead of the rear window. Yet the burglar seems to commit a pattern with rear door breakins, 2-1-2-4-2-1- . Going of this pattern I predict the next break-in will be through the window. 1847215201930Los Angeles Police Department Serial Commercial BurglariesAnalyst: Mike GallagherRIAP 276January 18, 2010
      -29186114432-344170110490
      Pry bar rear doorPry bar rear window -4341522156790
      -4173855143510
      Page Left Blank Intentionally
      199390-489585
      Pattern in M.O: 2-1-2-4-2-1-X-743585728345-1408526689097Change in M.O.No Change in M.O. Window Door
      -376735-163773
      Victim
      AnalysisThe burglar’s next target will likely be either a pharmacy or a sporting goods retailer. The burglar will likely strike a pharmacy, possibly a Rite Aid or something of the same ilk. 4/5 of the sporting good businesses burglarized where at two of the same address. However, all pharmacies burglarized where at different addresses. -38100-447675
      Los Angeles Police Department Serial Commercial BurglariesAnalyst: Mike GallagherRIAP 276January 18, 2010
      68294255715
      -417830295275
      81280195580
      Raw Data-419100-438150
      -344170-173990
      -349885-273050
      -38100-457200
      434403541275Administrative DataExam # 4: Burglary Crime Series AnalysisTotal Possible Grade Points: 100Date Assigned: 1/4/2010 (Class 11)Date Due: 1/15/2010 (Class 16) (or may be submitted earlier) Testing Location: Outside the ClassroomEstimated Time Required: 12-16 HoursSources of Information: Exercise Hand-Out, (Lab assistance at a time to be determined)Software Applications: Microsoft Excel Google Maps Resource References: Classroom Lecture and Slides Better Policing with Microsoft Office Blackboard Readings (Crime Analysis)Background: As a Crime Analyst, one of your responsibilities is to identify crime pattern series and report it to your supervisor. He She then will often ask for an analysis and recommendations. Tasking:On 1/4/2010, you were a crime analyst working for the Los Analysis Police Department. During the course of your daily work, you noticed a burglary crime pattern. Based upon the dates, times, locations, victims and the M.O., you and your supervisor believe the same suspect(s) committed these burglaries. Your supervisor, LT Sharon Jackson, has decided to deploy a special problems enforcement team to conduct a surveillance operation to apprehend the suspect(s). The team will be paid overtime salary and has limited time for deployment.She has directed you to analyze the crime data by the attributes of Time, Location, Behavior, and Victim. You are to make recommendations for deployment with the greatest potential for success in apprehending the suspect(s). She also asks for any other analytical findings you can provide to assist in the deployment and apprehension.Assignment:See the attached handout for the specific requirements.Assignment Format: The finished product shall be formatted and saved in Microsoft Excel Workbook. A coversheet shall be included in the printed copy. A printed copy of the product shall be submitted in class and an electronic copy of the Excel Workbook shall be placed in the Digital Drop Box before class. The electronic file shall be named Your Last Name Exam 4.Instructions: Each student will perform the analyses individually. Grading Criteria:Accuracy of your Excel spreadsheet calculations. Quality of analysis and the validity of your recommendations and analytical reasoningClarity of formatting, writing, organization, and ease of reading of the reportUse of charts, graphics, maps, and colors.The paper and/or electronic copy will receive a full grade deduction for each part of 24 hours of being late.Student Acknowledgement Signature: Sign and return with your project._______________________________ _________________________________ Name Signature