One, No One & One Hundred Thousand
Projects

Uno, Nessuno, Centomila
Progetti
Gaetano Mazzanti
@mgaewsj
Agile42
“doing, doing.
doing just for the sake of it,
without even seeing
what you are doing,
why you are doing it”

L.Pirandello
...
one

no

product/project

project (continuous delivery,

support, maintenance, …)

many

projects/initiatives
same(wrong?)questions,
difficult/wrong/no
answers

?!
?!

how much will it

cost
?!

how

long will it take
?!

who

will work on that
?!

what to do

next
?!
what

options do we have
?!
what will be the

value
what is the

?!

cost of delay
the key question

why

?!
should

it all boil down to
economic based

decisions

$$$
however…
he who yells
the loudest…
HIPPO

HIghest Paid Person Opinion
AN IMPORTANT
CUSTOMER
EUROPE DEMANDS IT
push
build

100%
utilization
myth

learn

measure

planning
fallacy
the end result is…
multitasking
queues
firefighting
failure & frustration
so?
economic based decisions
a transparent mechanism
for balancing
demand and supply
with a clear
selection mechanism

$$$
if you can’t see it
you can’t manage it
understand the system
do you really know where you are?
what’s going on?
make work visible

source Pawel Brodzinski
expose dysfunctions
balance

capacity
demand
limit WIP
WIP limits
out
ab
ions
rsat
nve
co
rce
fo
to…
hat
w
now
on
ork
w
one
stp
po
drop

source David J Anderson
service oriented mindset
service delivery
implies flow
let work flow

let	
  work	
  flow	
  
pizza delivery
what matters
to customers

fast delivery
accuracy and
quality
predictability
metrics that matter
most	
  are	
  

	
  
end-to-end

functional

here!	
  

	
  
no
yes
matter to customers
visualize flow
ideas	


do	


elaborate	


A	

C	

E	


D	

F	


B	


validate	

 delivered
visualize flow
ideas	


elaborate	


do	


C	


validate	

 delivered	


A	

B	


E	


D	

F
measure flow
ideas	


G	

H	

I	


elaborate	


F	


do	


D	

E	


validate	

 delivered	


C	


A	

B
flow efficiency
ideas	


G	

H	


elaborate	


F	


do	


D	

E	


validate	

 delivered	


C	

Z Z Z Z Z 	


I	

flow effic...
(flawed)flow

Z Z Z Z Z 	


Z Z Z Z Z 	

Z Z Z Z Z
decision making in
uncertainty

balance:
risk/return
short term/long term
etc.
decisions… when?
decisions
risk
knowledge

time
keep your options open

pull
	
  
selection
vs
prioritization
selection

?!

what to do next
what to finish next
Cost of Delay
Cost of CoD /
Duration	

Delay	

T	


A	

B	


5	

2	


3	

2	


0.6	

1	

A duration	


A	

If CoDA/ TA ≤ C...
Cost of Delay
Cost
CoD /
Duration	

of
T	

Delay	


A duration	


A	

Delay Cost	


A	

B	


5	

2	


3	

2	


B	


A CoD	...
“fine, but what’s in it for me?”
what about humans?
we decide collaboratively
we share/show progress
required
we create a safe to fail environment
experiment:
measure & learn
build

learn

measure
many small steps,
some are discarded
others embraced
no known destination

to?
to…
from

to?

to?
if humans are involved
the domain is complex

sorry, there are

no

best practices!
more in depth…
demand analysis

where does work come from?
how is value assigned (and verified) to
initiatives?
is arrival rate predictab...
estimating & forecasting

?!
probabilistic forecasting	
  
reduce estimation effort (guesses)
using historical data

connect risks impact/likelihood to...
control chart
knowledge work
has high variability
16	

14	

12	


average cycletime	

UCL	

LCL	

cycle time	


10	

8	

6...
CFD
Cumulative Flow Diagram
“Houston…”
monitoring progress
is usually
90% complete
meaningless
90% of what?

remaining 10% could take forever
monitoring progress

output

time
cost of delay &
classes of service
cost

time

cost

time

cost

time
classes of service, WIP,
expedite lane
ideas	


J	


I	


6	


1	


1	


M	


F	

L	


O	

Q	


validate	

 delivered	


E...
limiting WIP
by # of initiatives
by size
by team capacity
by space available
by conversation
…

(size matters)
limiting WIP
by # of initiatives
by size
by team capacity
by space available
by conversation
…

(size matters)
limit WIP by
team capacity / space available
staff liquidity
no dependencies on specific
people
allocate people with fewest
options first
people with most options coac...
enough…
ask yourself
the right questions

?!
One
No One
One Hundred Thousand
Projects
inspired by Joakim Sunden
Gaetano Mazzanti
@mgaewsj
gaetano.mazzanti@agile42.com
One, No One, One Hundred Thousand Projects (Uno, Nessuno, Centomila Progetti)
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One, No One, One Hundred Thousand Projects (Uno, Nessuno, Centomila Progetti)

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One, No One, One Hundred Thousand Projects (Uno, Nessuno, Centomila Progetti)

  1. 1. One, No One & One Hundred Thousand Projects Uno, Nessuno, Centomila Progetti Gaetano Mazzanti @mgaewsj Agile42
  2. 2. “doing, doing. doing just for the sake of it, without even seeing what you are doing, why you are doing it” L.Pirandello “fare, fare. fare per fare, senza vedere neppure quello che fate, perché lo fate”
  3. 3. one no product/project project (continuous delivery, support, maintenance, …) many projects/initiatives
  4. 4. same(wrong?)questions, difficult/wrong/no answers ?!
  5. 5. ?! how much will it cost
  6. 6. ?! how long will it take
  7. 7. ?! who will work on that
  8. 8. ?! what to do next
  9. 9. ?! what options do we have
  10. 10. ?! what will be the value
  11. 11. what is the ?! cost of delay
  12. 12. the key question why ?!
  13. 13. should it all boil down to economic based decisions $$$
  14. 14. however…
  15. 15. he who yells the loudest…
  16. 16. HIPPO HIghest Paid Person Opinion
  17. 17. AN IMPORTANT CUSTOMER EUROPE DEMANDS IT
  18. 18. push
  19. 19. build 100% utilization myth learn measure planning fallacy
  20. 20. the end result is…
  21. 21. multitasking
  22. 22. queues
  23. 23. firefighting
  24. 24. failure & frustration
  25. 25. so?
  26. 26. economic based decisions a transparent mechanism for balancing demand and supply with a clear selection mechanism $$$
  27. 27. if you can’t see it you can’t manage it
  28. 28. understand the system do you really know where you are? what’s going on?
  29. 29. make work visible source Pawel Brodzinski
  30. 30. expose dysfunctions
  31. 31. balance capacity demand
  32. 32. limit WIP
  33. 33. WIP limits out ab ions rsat nve co rce fo to… hat w now on ork w one stp po drop source David J Anderson
  34. 34. service oriented mindset service delivery implies flow
  35. 35. let work flow let  work  flow  
  36. 36. pizza delivery what matters to customers fast delivery accuracy and quality predictability
  37. 37. metrics that matter most  are     end-to-end functional here!     no yes matter to customers
  38. 38. visualize flow ideas do elaborate A C E D F B validate delivered
  39. 39. visualize flow ideas elaborate do C validate delivered A B E D F
  40. 40. measure flow ideas G H I elaborate F do D E validate delivered C A B
  41. 41. flow efficiency ideas G H elaborate F do D E validate delivered C Z Z Z Z Z I flow efficiency = touch time / lead time usually really bad (5%-20%) i.e. lead time = 10 days, touch time = 2 days A B
  42. 42. (flawed)flow Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z
  43. 43. decision making in uncertainty balance: risk/return short term/long term etc.
  44. 44. decisions… when? decisions risk knowledge time
  45. 45. keep your options open pull  
  46. 46. selection vs prioritization
  47. 47. selection ?! what to do next what to finish next
  48. 48. Cost of Delay Cost of CoD / Duration Delay T A B 5 2 3 2 0.6 1 A duration A If CoDA/ TA ≤ CoDB / TB do B first Delay Cost A CoD B B CoD B duration
  49. 49. Cost of Delay Cost CoD / Duration of T Delay A duration A Delay Cost A B 5 2 3 2 B A CoD B 0.6 1 B CoD Delay Cost B duration TA* CoDB = 10 TB* CoDA = 6 A
  50. 50. “fine, but what’s in it for me?”
  51. 51. what about humans? we decide collaboratively we share/show progress required we create a safe to fail environment
  52. 52. experiment: measure & learn build learn measure
  53. 53. many small steps, some are discarded others embraced
  54. 54. no known destination to? to… from to? to?
  55. 55. if humans are involved the domain is complex sorry, there are no best practices!
  56. 56. more in depth…
  57. 57. demand analysis where does work come from? how is value assigned (and verified) to initiatives? is arrival rate predictable? (usually not)
  58. 58. estimating & forecasting ?!
  59. 59. probabilistic forecasting   reduce estimation effort (guesses) using historical data connect risks impact/likelihood to tracking check Troy Magennis’ work
  60. 60. control chart knowledge work has high variability 16 14 12 average cycletime UCL LCL cycle time 10 8 6 4 time!
  61. 61. CFD Cumulative Flow Diagram “Houston…”
  62. 62. monitoring progress is usually 90% complete meaningless 90% of what? remaining 10% could take forever
  63. 63. monitoring progress output time
  64. 64. cost of delay & classes of service cost time cost time cost time
  65. 65. classes of service, WIP, expedite lane ideas J I 6 1 1 M F L O Q validate delivered E H G 2 do elaborate C D B K N P A EXPEDITE LANE
  66. 66. limiting WIP by # of initiatives by size by team capacity by space available by conversation … (size matters)
  67. 67. limiting WIP by # of initiatives by size by team capacity by space available by conversation … (size matters)
  68. 68. limit WIP by team capacity / space available
  69. 69. staff liquidity no dependencies on specific people allocate people with fewest options first people with most options coach and help others
  70. 70. enough…
  71. 71. ask yourself the right questions ?!
  72. 72. One No One One Hundred Thousand Projects
  73. 73. inspired by Joakim Sunden
  74. 74. Gaetano Mazzanti @mgaewsj gaetano.mazzanti@agile42.com
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