Wp businessmodels in TIME Atos Consulting

1,171 views
1,100 views

Published on

Ericsson and Atos Consulting have joined forces in a thorough exploration of your and our business for the coming
10 years. Ericsson conducted an international survey to establish a vision in which direction the TIME (Telecom, IT,
Media & Entertainment ) industry is heading. The four most likely scenarios for 2020 are thoroughly researched. Based
on this vision Atos Consulting developed insights into the business models needed for each scenario. Our goal is to
share an independent and authoritative view on the future of the TIME industry. We hope this will help you to reflect
upon your business and to keep ahead of competition.
This white paper, will give you insight in a future that is uncertain for all of us. We hope to give you direction with
a vision on scenarios and possible business models to prepare your organization. We trust that we will take your
thinking further and you will benefit from our suggestions and recommendations to prepare for the jump to 2020.
On behalf of all contributors to this white paper, we wish you a pleasant and foremost inspirational read!
Ericsson & Atos Consulting

Doc to be found here: http://www.nl.atosconsulting.com/NR/rdonlyres/03766DBA-AED5-4EE4-B0CB-FA204557B439/0/WPBusinessmodelsinTIME.pdf

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,171
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
22
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
4
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Wp businessmodels in TIME Atos Consulting

  1. 1. S E E I N G T H I N G S D I F F E R E N T LY Business models in time A guide for TIME companies: How to make the jump to 2020 White paper
  2. 2. Table of Contents Foreword 3 Executive Summary 4 1. introduction 6 2. Likely Truths and Uncertainties 8 3. Scenarios 11 3.1 Introduction 11 3.2 Scenario 1 - Brands pipes 11 3.3 Scenario 2 - User’s Choice 12 3.4 Scenario 3 - Green Shift 13 3.4 Scenario 4 - All-Inclusive 14 4. Business models 16 4.1 Introduction 16 4.2 Brands and Pipes Business models 16 4.3 User Choice Business Models 19 4.4 Green Shift Business Model 21 4.5 All-Inclusive Business Model 22 Concluding Remarks 24 About the authors 25 About the companies 26
  3. 3. 3 Foreword Ericsson and Atos Consulting have joined forces in a thorough exploration of your and our business for the coming 10 years. Ericsson conducted an international survey to establish a vision in which direction the TIME (Telecom, IT, Media Entertainment ) industry is heading. The four most likely scenarios for 2020 are thoroughly researched. Based on this vision Atos Consulting developed insights into the business models needed for each scenario. Our goal is to share an independent and authoritative view on the future of the TIME industry. We hope this will help you to reflect upon your business and to keep ahead of competition. This white paper, will give you insight in a future that is uncertain for all of us. We hope to give you direction with a vision on scenarios and possible business models to prepare your organization. We trust that we will take your thinking further and you will benefit from our suggestions and recommendations to prepare for the jump to 2020. On behalf of all contributors to this white paper, we wish you a pleasant and foremost inspirational read! Ericsson Atos Consulting
  4. 4. 4 Executive Summary The past few years change seems to be accelerating for the TIME (Telecom, ICT, Media and Entertainment) industry. There have been tremendous changes in the way people, governments and business’ share information. Because of these dynamics, it is difficult to prepare for the future. Scenario planning is a proven method for strategy development in a turbulent environment. It helps to elicit likely truths and uncertainties in a market and describes the possible futures and mechanisms that drive these futures. In this paper we take you one step further. To start with we identified likely truths and uncertainties that resulted in four future scenarios. Going the step further we also look at the way organizations are most likely to react and respond to such changes by defining the business models accompanying those futures. Scenario 1 - Brand Pipes: Simplicity and convenience win over variety, turning brands into partners Services and content are separated from the access and transport of information. In several waves, more and more services will be offered online, including services that traditionally have been offered in other ways, such as telephony, TV, and movie rentals. Here the service provider is in the driver seat, rather than the customer. It is an extrapolation of the 2010 relationships. On the one hand the brand will have an extreme focus on the customer relationship, while the pipe will have an extreme focus on cost and scale in the network. Brands and Pipes will have to work together to service the end customer. Scenario 2 – User’s Choice: Demand for seamless services, the emergence of the network operation system Despite being impressed by the Internet model, people and enterprises will grow increasingly concerned with the user friendliness of services, the complexity of access technologies and user devices, and the unpredictable quality. The facilitating operator has more focus on the infrastructure as a service and will partner with the service innovator. The business models used by network operators focus on generating revenues, combined with resources. This is mainly due to the customers needs and their trust in the facilitating network operators. The service innovator business model is also focused on the revenue side from an innovation perspective. Scenario 3 – The Green Shift: Everything measured by sustainability Sustainability and regulation are the main drivers. When climate change seriously enters national and international agendas, it will become politically correct to be in favor of lifestyle and business style changes to reduce CO2 emissions. Strong public opinion will bring about profound political actions on sustainability issues that resolutely change conditions for societies, companies, and individuals world-wide. Here regulatory pressure will slow down growth but stimulate innovation in sustainable solutions. It could be combined with any of the other scenarios. Scenario 4 - All-Inclusive: Requirements of convenience and trust will result in all- inclusive but less innovative offerings Large scale operators are the consequence of a decade of consolidation in the market. The new all-inclusive offerings will comprise communication, broadcasting, content, and all kinds of access and devices. It will become more difficult to enter the industry, and the larger companies most probably will grow and improve their position. Entrants and innovative parties will align with the bigger companies and attempt to serve their niche. Although the scenarios are very different, the business models show a number of similarities. These similarities result, next to the likely truths, in so-called no-regret strategies for TIME companies: Implement activity based costing; activity based costing will become more and more important. Insight into all aspects of the organization and running the business is crucial to survival. Transform Network Management; focus on scale in Network Operations and embrace the IT transformation and put Network/IT at the heart of the company.
  5. 5. 5 Build up partnership skills; partnership is key, especially in the User’s Choice scenario, distinctive partnership capability will mark the rise or fall of TIME companies. Flexible or multiple partner relations are required, with its effect on intellectual property, costs and revenue sharing. Enhanced trust and reputation: creating trust is another returning aspect, either with customers or partners. This is something that is not common practice in most companies and will need to be developed. These scenarios indicate different implications for the way companies in the TIME industry make money. One thing is sure, it will require a major change in the vision of companies operating in the current industry. The first Chapter of this paper consists of a theory based introduction for scenario planning and business modeling. This is the first step to help TIME companies prepare for their future in an optimal way. To be able to describe four future scenarios we have identified likely truths and uncertainties that have the biggest impact on the future of the TIME industry as described in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 consists of the four derived scenarios completed with an overview of what the scenario may look like. After the possible developments per scenario are described, we will show you what the consequences are of the scenarios on the business models as drawn up in Chapter 4. The final Chapter summarizes our findings and contains our concluding remarks completed with no-regret strategies. Brands Pipes User’s Choice Green shift All-Inclusive User perspective Users want branded “life style” service packages (based on trust, loyalty) Active users want choice among an abundance of services (open market) Users demand utility and sustainability solutions Users will get bundled offerings (convenient but locked-in) Industry perspective Large consolidated service providers separated from pure access transport networks Fragmented service providers on top of a service support layer “network operating system” Consolidated service providers on top of a (regulated standardized) service support layer Vertically integrated providers of everything from content to transport access Context Global economy, high economic growth Global economy, high economic growth, strong renewal of business models Government regulation, regionalized economies, lower economic growth Regionalized economies (US, Asia), lower economic growth Business Model With two business models (brands and pipes) the market is an extrapolation of the current 2010 relationships, with a clear separation of network and brand The facilitating network operator and service innovator business models result in high innovation supported by facilitating networks The green aspects of the scenario can be found in all aspects of the business model, from customers to infrastructure, costs and revenue Unlike the other business models balance between the different aspects of the model is less necessary
  6. 6. 6 introduction Since the early nineties, when monopolies ended, the telecommunications sector has changed considerably. The last years however, these changes seem to be accelerating. There have been tremendous changes in the way people, governments and businesses share information. Traditional ways of communication have changed profoundly as new ways of communication and business models have emerged. This evolution is just starting, and will have a huge impact. What once seemed distinct communications (and related) industries with distinct value chains now are intertwined towards a new, holistic content communications value chain in which all players compete for their customers’ favors and want to conquer new market shares and profits. We call that the TIME (Telecom, IT, Media and Entertainment) industry. What will the next decade bring for the TIME industry? What kind of evolution, opportunities and threats will we see in the post-crisis world? As commercial capital lending might be more restricted, organizations will need to carefully select their investment opportunities. And Western enterprises will face much greater competition from the emerging economies in Asia, particularly India and China. What will drive future growth? Are we going from an international business driven world to a business world that focuses on continents? Technology will certainly play its part. Information management and business intelligence is becoming more and more widespread as organizations unlock the potential of engaging with multiple work communities in the hyper- connected marketplace. Indeed, the management of information to generate new and promising business opportunities will be key. Our goal is to share with you an independent and authoritative view on the TIME industry for the next ten years and share insights that will help you reflect upon your business and choose direction to stay ahead of competition. In our reconnaissance we will share our views on: Trends affecting the TIME industry. Four possible future scenarios. Characteristics of future business models applied to these scenarios. 1.1 Scenario planning Scenario planning is a proven method for strategy development in a turbulent environment. It helps to elicit likely truths and uncertainties in a market. Our approach to scenario planning results in four scenarios of the future, each with a specific business model on how best to approach that future. An important part of the value of scenarios lies in the strategic discussions they initiate. These discussions will deliver new insights as well as strategic options. By exploring possible futures and identifying the mechanisms that drive these futures, companies will be better prepared. Scenario planning helps business leaders to think out-of-the-box in a structured way. It enables the discussion about the impact and uncertainty of business trends. As a result, if the changes occur, the management will be better prepared and more able to deal with the changes as they have already thought about the possible consequences. To develop TIME scenarios we have in the first place made an overview of likely truths that can be seen today. Those “likely truths” are valid for each of the scenarios. An example is the trend of a, worldwide, growing middle-class, resulting in about one billion extra middle- class consumers in 2020. Secondly, there are a number of issues that are more difficult to predict. A number of factors could have a more determined impact on the future, depending on the way it turns out. An example is the effect of climate change, and the way that governments will react with profound regulation to decrease CO2 emission. Currently, this is an uncertainty that could develop in various ways. Several of those uncertain factors can be identified. By making different combinations of those variable factors, different scenarios can be created. 1.2 Business Modeling Where scenarios describe possible futures and the mechanisms that drive these futures, the way an organization reacts or responds to such changes in order to create the greatest value possible can be described with a business model. This will help the company to prepare in an optimal way.
  7. 7. 7 A business model describes the rationale of how an organization creates, delivers, and captures economic, social, or other forms of value. In theory and practice the term business model is used for a broad range of informal and formal descriptions to represent core aspects of a business, including purpose, offerings, strategies, infrastructure, organizational structures, trading practices, and operational processes and policies. We will work with the definition of Osterwalder: “A business model is a conceptualization of the money earning logic of a firm.”1 Figure 1 shows that a business model is a translation of the company strategy into four elements: Product (value proposition), Market, Infrastructure and Financials. The value proposition is placed at the heart of the model. This consists of the products and/or services that the company offers to its customers. The market deals with the customer relationship and the channels that are used to interact with the customer. The infrastructure elements explain the key activities and required resources and partnerships in order to deliver these activities to the customers. The financials discuss the resulting costs and revenue models in order to create shareholder value. This model winds down to nine elements that enable an accurate description of a business model. Different scenarios ask for different business models and in one scenario there may be several viable business models. Partnership network Key Activities Cost model Key Resources Customer relationship Customer segments Distribution channels Revenue model Value proposition Shareholder value Strategy Infrastructure Market Financials Figure 1: Elements of a business model1 1. Based on A. Osterwalder, Y. Pigneur, 2004, An ontology for e-business models, University of Lausanne G.C. Brockhoff, J.A. Emanuels, B. Verweij, 2006, New Business Planning, Turning Compelling Ideas Into Sustainable Value, Deventer, Kluwer
  8. 8. 8 Likely Truths and Uncertainties 2.1 Introduction We have surveyed the trends that can be seen today. These trends are called “likely truths”, as they are quite certain to continue in the future. We have plotted the likely truths on the scenarios (Chapter 3) but it is assumed that these trends will continue, independent of any scenario. Besides the likely truths, there are numerous factors that are less predictable. These variables are the basis for the distinction between the various scenarios. In paragraph 2.3 some of the most important uncertain factors will be described. 2.2 Likely Truths We established thirteen likely truths that we will elaborate on: Networking, personalization and mobility will radically transform user patterns Markets will become increasingly mobile, transparent, and efficient. As a massive movement, information seeking users participate in online social networks, communicating, comparing, producing, sharing, and collaborating. Consumers will be more diverse, blurring traditional market segmentation criteria and increasing fragmentation. With this comes a change in lifestyle towards increased individualism and personalization of products, shaping communication behaviors, online services, and tools will occur. ICT solutions will be increasingly critical for enterprises to secure sustainable competitiveness Globalization, restrained workforces, resource scarcities, and the demand for sustainable solutions, drive the need for increased productivity and maintaining competitive edge for businesses and government bodies. Self service applications, machine to machine communication and automation will be examples of this, transforming business processes. Companies will also continue to direct IT budgets at making their strategic knowledge workers more effective. One billion new middle-class consumers will enter the global marketplace, mainly in Asia The number of middle-class consumers globally almost doubles as one billion new consumers enter the global market place, shifting the map of consumers towards Asia. The majority of the new middle-class will be in China and India. As they climb the income ladder, they evolve the preferences of brands and move up the hierarchy of needs. These needs must however, be met at lower price points. As average income levels increase, so do the issues of social inequalities and rapid urbanization. Operator consolidation, cross-industry collaboration, and low-cost innovation will redefine the industry Enterprises drastically increase their collaboration within and across industries, utilizing communication methods and tools far beyond those of today. Services will increasingly be provided across borders through large scale intercompany cooperation. New emerging market multinationals and brands enter the global market place. Technology advancements, competition and commoditization will put pressure on existing telecom services, affecting revenues and margins. The industry will need to respond. Some sub-industries will be more convergent, and consolidation of operators in the same geographical areas will continue. Most user services will be delivered independent of the network provider IP will be the prevailing delivery rule, and the vertical dependence between services and infrastructures will gradually disappear. Users will access services and content independently of the network provider. Business models will vary, but lower entry barriers and innovation will increase exposure to other service providers offering the same service cheaper or without user charge, financed by alternative business models. Everything that benefits from a wireless network connection will have one Markets will become increasingly mobilized, also increasing the share of services delivered online. Technology in itself will not be a limiting factor for the diffusion of new products and services. New applications will make new combinations in scientific fields such as bio-, nano-, materials-, and information technology, opening up for new services in e.g.
  9. 9. 9 health care, automation, positioning, and information management. Everything that can benefit from a network connection will have one. Usability and simplicity will be in demand. China and India will take their place as economic powers with fundamental global impact The world economy will be substantially larger, and developing economies will contribute with more than half of the economic growth. China and India will propel Asia into a more dominant position in the global economy, changing the balance of power and affecting the geopolitical landscape. Innovation will flourish in these countries as education reaches higher populations. Sustainability and scarcity of resources will shape political agendas and ignite conflicts Political agendas will remain turbulent. Competition for natural resources and commodities intensifies, with resources largely concentrated to unstable regions. Political instruments will be used to create energy efficiencies and reduce CO2 emissions. In some areas regulation will be radical, and markets and industries will have to adjust accordingly. Societal vulnerabilities will increase dependency on safety and security solutions Global issues and a continued shift to wireless and online will bring new societal vulnerabilities. Cyber crime and malware will be increasingly common, and dependencies on the availability of information and communication systems will increase. Restricted online anonymity and privacy raises integrity concerns. As a result, security and consumer protection related regulation will increase and industries will move to capture these new opportunities. The battle on user identity In a short-term attempt to retain consumers, we will see operators introducing single sign-on solutions, bringing all their online, media, and telecom products under a single customer logon. We will also see operators moderating these identities with other vendors such as banks or retailers. However, they are competing against Microsoft, Google, governments, and numerous open initiatives. Ultimately, the telecom industry will not be the custodian of a user’s identity. We can expect to see this struggle continuing for the coming years. Device Innovation 2010 is the year of device innovation. We can expect to see almost every consumer device equipped with wireless Internet connectivity. With the continued lower cost of computing we will also see intelligence and connectivity in the most mundane of objects. Demand for network bandwidth will massively increase. Future workforce The green agenda and consumer quality-of-life expectations will see increased working from home. This will lead to greater demand for fast, reliable, and secure networking. The future workforce will be entirely virtual and more akin to teenagers playing computer games than businessmen meeting in offices. New teams, opportunities, and products will be constructed and exploited within hours rather than weeks. The generation Y workforce — whose members have not yet hit 30 — are massive TIME consumers. Their success means more demand on the network, and more demand on the identity, security, and content features of that network. There is an increased awareness of personal and family security. Virtual worlds are becoming very popular in the pre-adolescent and teen demographics. Internet companies are finding new ways to open new markets and extract revenue from previously untapped demographics. Data analysis provides the ability to predict individual or group behavior. The telecom company launches initiatives to investigate the possibilities of deriving revenue from exploitation of this data power. While we can expect to see legislation to protect consumers from this type of behavior we can also expect to see government initiatives to have access to this data. The telecom company has the consumer’s identity information and their trust. This is especially noticeable for telecom companies that were the beneficiaries. We will see some telecom companies lead innovation to exploit this rich resource rather than investing heavily in old-fashioned telephony features. Customer Excellence The natural contradiction between customer intimacy and operational excellence makes way for a new paradigm. New business process models and IT create possibilities to combine both issues. In this new model the organization will be excellent towards customers as well as to their own objectives. Enterprise 2.0, also known as the Agile Enterprise will be the network organization of the future.
  10. 10. 10 2.3 Uncertainties There are a number of factors that are less certain to predict. Depending on the development of these uncertainties, the future might look quite different. We established five uncertainties: Shapers of development and user preferences Who will shape the direction of the development? Will it mainly be the industry that determines the future, or are the user preferences dominant in shaping the direction? In the latter case, what are the user preferences? Do users seek convenience (leaning backward), or are they active (leaning forward) and looking for choice? The answer to this question is unsure and will also have an impact on the service provider market: Will this be a consolidated market (a few number of large players), or will it be fragmented, with a lot of players? Network and service architecture Some think that network connectivity and user service providers will be completely separated, resulting in pure access transport networks. Others think that providers of connectivity and user services may be vertically integrated, and that networks will have strong service support functions. This uncertainty will definitely have a large impact on the TIME market and the value chain. Devices Another uncertainty is the future development of devices. Will devices be all-purpose, only loosely integrated with user services, and based on “thin clients”? Or will devices be specialized, optimized for particular user services, with “thick clients”? Regulatory action on sustainability What will the reaction of governments and regulatory bodies be to climate change? Will this lead to profound regulatory action? Or will governments choose not to impose strict regulation on sustainability? The answer to this question will determine the future of the TIME sector drastically. Economic growth After the worldwide recession, how will the economy develop? Will we see a global economy in a new high-growth period, or will we see more regionalized economies, with lower economic growth?
  11. 11. 11 Scenarios 3.1 Introduction Starting from the likely truths and the uncertainties as described in the previous Chapter, a number of scenarios can be developed. This resulted in four mainstream scenarios, each describing a plausible future in TIME. 3.2 Scenario 1 - Brands pipes: Simplicity and convenience win over variety, turning brands into partners In the Brand Pipes scenario, the Internet model with services and content separated from the access, and transport of information will turn out to be unbeatable. In several waves, more and more services will be offered online using this model, including services that traditionally have been offered in other ways, such as telephony, TV, and movie rentals (Figure 2). The winners in this evolution will be a limited number of large and innovative service providers – brands. Key industry shapers might be companies such as Sony, Apple, Google, Yahoo!, or similar new companies. Services are delivered over-the-top by brands, independent of network providers. Users will demand a convenient and trusted lifestyle, and business style service packages. Users will become tired of browsing through all the choices (and rubbish) online and they will turn to their brand partners for a comprehensive array of entertaining, useful, and reliable services. The development of services is therefore driven by this user demand. The industry, especially the brands, will shape the solutions offered to the users. Brands will offer a selection of services that range across a wide disparity of lifestyles. Not all brands will fit all people, but the number and the variety of brands will be large enough to satisfy most needs. Brands are creating Figure 2: Settings of uncertainties of the Brands Pipes scenario User preferences will shape the direction of development Industry and context factors will shape the direction of development Consolidated user service providers Fragmented service provider market Pure access and transport networks Networks with converged strong service support functions Separation of network connectivity user service providers Vertically integrated providers of connectivity user services Global economy, high economic growth Regionalized economies, lower economic growth Profound regulatory action on sustainability No profound regulatory action on sustainability All-purpose devices loosely integrated with user services Specialized devices integrated with user services Users want choice (they are explorative, independent not loyal) Users want convenience, bundled offerings provider relationships
  12. 12. 12 value by integrating services with devices or Internet specific offerings (using e.g. meta data, software as a service, and advanced data mining) and by leveraging convenience, brand loyalty and security to achieve customer lock-in. Branded packages will attract money from traditional telephony, media, advertising and IT as well as from other wallets and business budgets. Devices that will be used will not be generic, but powerful, intelligent, and dedicated branded thick clients. Devices will be “locked” and tied to the brand’s specific service offerings. Many traditional operators will fail in capturing multimedia revenues and end up being wholesalers and provide only access and transport, some will manage to become brands and only a few will become both. The others will be acquired and split up. This development will lead to an expansion of the model with services delivered over-the-top independently of network providers and will eventually dominate the entire TIME industry. Telecom regulation will take a more observing stance. Competition will work to a sufficient degree and consumer interests will be less likely to be harmed when services are separated from infrastructure offerings. 3.3 Scenario 2 - User’s Choice: Demand for seamless services, the emergence of the network operating system The second scenario is “User’s Choice”. Despite being impressed by the Internet model, people and enterprises will grow increasingly concerned with the user friendliness of services, the complexity of access technologies and user devices, and the unpredictable quality. They will continue to demand a broad selection of services but also require dedicated and reliable solutions to personal and business needs. Independent and explorative users want to be able to choose, resulting in a boom of service innovation (Figure 3). Figure 3: Setting of uncertainties of the User’s Choice scenario User preferences will shape the direction of development Industry and context factors will shape the direction of development Consolidated user service providers Fragmented service provider market Pure access and transport networks Networks with converged strong service support functions Separation of network connectivity user service providers Vertically integrated providers of connectivity user services Global economy, high economic growth Regionalized economies, lower economic growth Profound regulatory action on sustainability No profound regulatory action on sustainability All-purpose devices loosely integrated with user services Specialized devices integrated with user services Users want choice (they are explorative, independent not loyal) Users want convenience, bundled offerings provider relationships
  13. 13. 13 With the combined demand from users, and supply from service providers as a major driving force, a movement towards the development of a more capable and reliable network will start. A common network operating system will bridge and “hide” the complexity of different technologies, user devices, and commonly used applications, and create a network designed for delivering every kind of user service and experience. Because of this facilitation towards users, the facilitating network operators will win the trust of the users; unlike the brands pipes scenario, where the trust is directed towards the brands. A group of responsive players from different industries will come together, agree on, and develop a network platform that reclaims value from other players in the value chain above the network level. For example, vendors from the telecom and datacom industries might take the lead and join forces with pro-active network operators. With new advanced network capabilities and a common interface for developing and delivering services, it will become easier for users and service providers alike to pursue their ends. Significantly lowered entry barriers will drive over-the-top service innovation and user choice will explode when a huge amount of new online providers will serve a multitude of unique user needs. These new network services (such as guaranteed quality, payment, security, and real time performance) will be worth paying for and will gradually emerge as an important revenue generator for the operators. Traditional voice services and pure broadband access will become commodities. At the same time, competition will increase among independent service providers on top of the network that will lead to strong fragmentation and lower margins. 3.4 Scenario 3 - Green Shift: Everything measured by sustainability The third scenario is “Green Shift”, where sustainability and regulation are the main drivers. When climate change seriously enters national and international agendas, it will become politically correct to be in favor of lifestyle and business style changes to reduce CO2 emissions. Strong public opinion will bring about profound political actions on sustainability issues that resolutely changes conditions for societies, companies and individuals world-wide. Sustainability is high on the governmental agenda and if it was not high on the agenda of the TIME industry yet, it will certainly become very important in the years to come (Figure 4). The world will start to measure more or less everything by sustainability standards, whether it is quality of life, business success or government actions. Lifestyle and business conduct will change towards less environmental impact, through individual preference or economic or legal necessity. People and enterprises will initially readily accept the new regulatory conditions designed to reduce CO2 emissions and to encourage sustainable behavior. Legislation and regulations (for example to restrict travel and energy consumption) mixed with tax incentives for sustainable behavior will create new consumption and business patterns. Overall, utility and necessities take a larger share of users’ wallets and budgets. This will create a boom in innovation of ICT services, such as e-health, e-government, e-work, M2M communications, including solutions for telepresence, logistics etc. Companies will add a second bottom line focused on sustainability. They will optimize their business processes to meet environmental demands and they will develop climate smart offerings. At the same time, the push for more localized production will increase market fragmentation, and drive the regionalization of the world economy. On average the world economy will grow less due to these developments.
  14. 14. 14 Climate-efficient online services will be delivered by trusted utility providers using loosely integrated all-purpose user devices. System Integration and IT companies addressing enterprise verticals will be best suited to capture sustainability opportunities in the business domain. Many users will demand an extended lifetime of devices, systems and technologies. Parts of the TIME industry will be re-regulated to secure the availability of affordable sustainability enhancing services, to force industry players to pool their resources and to ensure that networks are capable, reliable and robust. This will drive a new wave of investments in the industry at the same time as price regulations are enforced. Overall, the TIME industry will grow more compared to other industries. 3.4 Scenario 4 - All-Inclusive: Requirements of convenience and trust will result in all- inclusive but less innovative offerings The fourth scenario is the “All-Inclusive” scenario. Large and vertically integrated regional players will be created through cross-industry merger and acquisitions across the telecom, IT, media, entertainment, and electronics sectors. The new all-inclusive offerings will comprise communication, broadcasting, content, and all kinds of access and devices (Figure 5). This stage will be set by dominant players in the TIME industry with large financial resources together with more relaxed anti-trust legislation. Starting point for this scenario is the observation that the majority of users will turn out to be conservative and not very keen on trying out new things or to abandon their traditional providers. This favors the large traditional players in comparison with the new so called Internet players. Figure 4: Setting of uncertainties of the Green Shift scenario User preferences will shape the direction of development Industry and context factors will shape the direction of development Consolidated user service providers Fragmented service provider market Pure access and transport networks Networks with converged strong service support functions Separation of network connectivity user service providers Vertically integrated providers of connectivity user services Global economy, high economic growth Regionalized economies, lower economic growth Profound regulatory action on sustainability No profound regulatory action on sustainability All-purpose devices loosely integrated with user services Specialized devices integrated with user services Users want choice (they are explorative, independent not loyal) Users want convenience, bundled offerings provider relationships
  15. 15. 15 Users will be served by one service provider with one stop shopping of complete lifestyle and business style deals. The focus will be on convenience, trust and simplicity. The mergers that will lead to all-inclusive companies, will increase entry barriers for competitors to capitalize on large locked-in customer bases. Less competition will mean less innovation and service differentiation. Also, the lack of viable alternatives will benefit the big players. Vertical integration will be the dominating operational model, and the all-inclusive providers will see to it that also outsourced operations fit into the model. Depending on circumstances these players will have varying degrees of vertical integration, but they will always control the interface towards users, even if their added value is very small. Converged consumer electronics and mobile devices will become subsidized and locked as integrated parts of the all-inclusive deals. Devices will be branded and specialized, increasingly dependent on the networks, and incorporate service support functions necessary to create integrated services and a coherent user experience. The dominating position of the large players will drive parts of consumer electronics, hardware, and handsets into a common device industry. The integrated players will be able to capture a large share of wallets and budgets, creating a stable revenue stream with healthy margins. They will focus on operational excellence and push complexity and risk backwards in the value chain. Vendors will be dependent on, and squeezed by, the all-inclusive providers. Passive regulators, and increased tendencies towards national industry protection, will result in a more regionalized world economy. Overall GDP as well as the TIME industry will experience moderate growth. Figure 5: Setting of uncertainties of the All-Inclusive scenario User preferences will shape the direction of development Industry and context factors will shape the direction of development Consolidated user service providers Fragmented service provider market Pure access and transport networks Networks with converged strong service support functions Separation of network connectivity user service providers Vertically integrated providers of connectivity user services Global economy, high economic growth Regionalized economies, lower economic growth Profound regulatory action on sustainability No profound regulatory action on sustainability All-purpose devices loosely integrated with user services Specialized devices integrated with user services Users want choice (they are explorative, independent not loyal) Users want convenience, bundled offerings provider relationships
  16. 16. 16 Business models 4.1 Introduction When we look more deeply into the scenarios a fair conclusion is that all scenarios will have an impact on the existing organizations within the TIME industry. Though each scenario can result in more than one business model, for each scenario dominant business models are presented. From these dominant business models we will derive requirements for organizational success. The goal is to share views and assist decision makers in assessing their corporate fitness for any or all of the possible future scenarios. In effect the business model framework from Chapter 1 is used to analyze and present important areas in business that will play a key role in the future and will enable an organization to create the highest possible value. The framework as presented in Chapter 1 is divided into four areas that translate the strategy into operational requirements: value proposition, infrastructure, market, and financials. Along these four areas we will describe the possible business models for the scenarios using a business model canvas (Figure 6). 4.2 Brands and Pipes Business models The Brands and Pipes scenario is characterized by two dominant business models that will force a change in the current TIME ecosystem. Currently a comparable division is quite common in the industry, namely that of Service Provider and Network Operator, but various parties carry out both roles in a rather integrated way. Due to the split in Brand and Pipe organizations, a clear distinction is made between the activities of both types of companies. The brands provide the convenient and trusted lifestyle packages over the top (mass tailored to different segments). The pipes provide the access and transport of bits. The brand business model gets its shape from the customer interaction and product market research that is related to developing the right packages. The pipes business model on the other hand is driven by the value proposition supported by the infrastructure: low-cost access and transport. Each business model has specific requirements that will allow only a few winners. Brands companies obviously need a very strong brand and be highly innovative. Pipes companies need huge network capacity, extreme standardization and industry scale. Figure 6: The Business Model Canvas2 Key Partners Key Activities Value Propositions Customer Relationship Customer Segments Key Resources Channels Cost Structure Revenue Streams 2. A. Osterwalder, www.businessmodelgeneration.com
  17. 17. 17 The Brands Business Model (Figure 7) Value proposition Brands deliver a convenient and trusted lifestyle (both end-customers as business) through packages of service and content. In this scenario users demand a convenient and trusted lifestyle and business style services in defined service packages. Users are tired of browsing through all the choices (and rubbish) online and they will turn to their brand partners for a comprehensive array of entertaining, useful, and reliable services. Successful brands will build trust with their customers and in return, users are willing to share private data and will be less concerned with integrity and privacy issues. Users will be loyal to their brands and will change less often which will result in a stable market from a user perspective. A large “share of wallet” and “share of budget” spending on brand services will generate high business value of online activities. Market The customer relationship is very important in this business model. The success of the brand is dependent on the match with a specific segment and the degree in which customer lock-in can be created by leveraging convenience, brand loyalty and security. The main activities are focused on creating this match. Infrastructure This indicates that the primary activities for these brands are brand building, market research innovation, so that customers can bond and services may integrate with devices or internet specific offerings. A strong international brand will be the result, which will be the main asset of this type of company. The necessary relationships with other players need to be established especially for innovation purposes. Relations will be set up with banks, content providers, retailers, device makers, and software suppliers in order to create complete service offerings and being innovative for the right customer segments. This means that partnerships need to be flexible and dynamic. This will require a lot from the organization and the way it deals with trust intellectual property. Organizations will develop new solutions (intellectual property) together but they will also change partnerships or develop multiple partnership when needed. Each organization will want to secure their own intellectual property. Most likely some organizations will work with standards for partnerships in which this is arranged, and they will enable them to set up partnerships quickly. Figure 7: The Brands Business Model Canvas Key Partners Establish the necessary relationships (build the business web) with other players: banks content providers retailers device makers software suppliers to create complete service offerings Key Activities Brand building Building and running service enablers Integrating services with devices or internet-specific offerings Value Propositions Convenient and trusted lifestyle and business style packages of services and content Customer Relationship Achieve customer lock-in by leveraging convenience, brand loyalty and security Build trust with customers so users will share private data Customer Segments Specific consumer segments Specific enterprise segments Key Resources Strong, international brand Channels Services are delivered over-the-top independent of network providers Cost Structure Marketing innovation Development of bonus/cost structures, based on succes and gross margin of innovation Business administration: insight into all cost elements (activity based costing) Revenue Streams Subscriptions for packages Pay per use
  18. 18. 18 Financials Customers are billed for subscription for packages or pay per use of service or content. The revenue stream depends on the success of creating the match with the customer. The success of market research and innovation is the foundation for this match. Accountability will therefore be closely tied to the gross margin that is realized with a specific focus on operating against minimal cost. The Pipes Business Model (Figure 8) Value proposition The services of the brands are delivered over-the-top. Therefore the core value proposition of the pipes will be access and transport of information. Companies with a pipes business model will need to work with huge network capacity and extreme standardization in order to realize economies of scale. Pipes will also deliver services that are best generated close to the infrastructure, such as latency and bandwidth guarantees, presence and positioning information. Infrastructure Networkmanagement (building, monitoring and maintenance) will be crucial to the success of ‘pipe’ organizations. Because of the extreme pressure on costs, investments need to be weighed correctly. Therefore enterprises need to develop a new way of managing the infrastructure lifecycle. An important part of infrastructure lifecycle management is financial portfoliomanagement. Activity based costing will become more leading in this type of portfoliomanagement. As for partnering, working together with brands and other pipe organizations is essential for the right cost structure and continuation of the service. Market The focus on costs will also be a main driver for customer care. Straight-through-processing (STP) will become essential for survival. The channels that are used for the different customers (consumers, business, and brands), will be mainly internet channels (salesforce will probably no longer be used, only at the brands) built for STP. Financials Revenues come from wholesale traffic, access for customers and data traffic. In this scenario it is not expected that brands will pay for use of the pipes; two options are possible: Pay by customer for use of pipe directly to the pipe- organization. Figure 8: The Pipes Business Model Canvas Key Partners Brands Other Pipes players (interconnection) Key Activities Network management Customer care Value Propositions Access and transport of information Services that are best generated close to the infrastructure, such as latency and bandwidth guarantees, presence information and positioning Location based services and real-time anywhere services Customer Relationship As much as possible straights through processing (because of pressure on costs) Customer Segments Consumers Business customers Brands Key Resources Huge pipes (excess capacity) and local server farms Distributed switching and routing Extreme standardization and industry scale Channels Website Salesforce vs brands Cost Structure Extreme pressure on costs Network management Business administration: insight into all cost elements (activity based costing) Revenue Streams Wholesale traffic Access for consumers ans businesses Data traffic
  19. 19. 19 Pay by customer for use of pipe via service of brand. This could be a fee per month, but more likely the pay per use will become more common. In that case the customer relationship is gradually moving towards the company that is set up in a brands business model. A good example of this is the way Amazon is currently billing Kindle for access to the 3G network. A flexible and transparant cost structure is required which, as mentioned, can be based on activity based costing. 4.3 User’s Choice Business Models Users will continue to demand a broad selection of services to choose from as well as a continuous stream of new and innovative offerings. At the same time users will require dedicated and reliable solutions to each of their essential personal and business needs. Taking these demands into account, two business models are defined: the service innovator and the facilitating operator. In contrast to the previous scenario the facilitating network operator will have the closest relation with the customer. Services are delivered over-the-top, however the trust of the customer is determined by the reliability of the network. The Facilitating Operator Business Model (Figure 9) Value proposition The main activity will be to provide an intelligent network operating system that offers strong service enabling and support functions, such as: transparency of all data formats; secure monetary and data transactions; business and digital rights management support; personal security; identities handling (including true single sign on and authentication among other things). Customers require dedicated and reliable solutions to personal and business needs. Leading network operators will be big players integrating their mix of core, fixed, mobile, and cable networks under the valuable interface of the network operating system (comprehensive wholesalers to a multitude of service providers). Other operators with fewer networks will act mainly as second tier partners (access wholesalers) to the big ones. Infrastructure Providers of services over-the-top (separated from the network) will demand advanced network functionality (and service support functions) to simplify the development and delivery of their service offerings. This means that partnering is a primary activity for these facilitating network operator companies. They must be able to quickly set up new partnerships. A standard interface for partnerships will have to be developed. Together they will have to create a stable network for the end-users. Next to that regulators will be active to ensure fair competition particularly among and between Figure 9: The Facilitating Operator Business Model Canvas Key Partners Service innovators Key Activities Extensive collaboration and data sharing Value Propositions Intelligent network operating system Secure monetary and data transactions Business and digital rights management support Personal security and identifies handling (eg. true single sign on and authentication Customer Relationship Loyality Trust Integrity (private data) Customer Segments Consumers Business customers Service innovators Public sector (eg. e-Government, health, and services for elderly) National security Key Resources Huge pipes (excess capacity) and local server farms Distributed switching and routing Channels Advertising Online channels Cost Structure Network management Business administration Revenue Streams Advertising Access for consumers ans businesses Data traffic
  20. 20. 20 network providers. Users will enjoy strong consumer protection as the integrity and handling of private data in the network operating system layer will be regulated. This also means that monitoring and legal functions will become more important. Market The trust of users will be directed towards the facilitating network operators, un-biased collaboration communities, and towards selected highly specialized service providers, rather than broader “department store” service providers. Users will learn who to trust and who to ask for advice, and thus will not be particularly loyal to individual service providers or trust them with their private data. The increased network capabilities will open up for two-sided markets, where the producing and consuming sides are offered very different values by the network operators. Financials Product creation and maintenance will be the main cost drivers. This will be balanced by revenue streams from advertising, access for consumers and business to the intelligent network and data traffic. By tailoring offerings to service providers, network operators will be able to capture a larger part of the overall value and at the same time effectively serve different consumer segments with a variety of connectivity propositions. Those network operators, that are in control of the network operating system, will capture a substantial part of the value generated in the system and become a “clearing house” for both service providers and users. Both will get one bill from the network operator for multiple services. The Service Innovator Business Model (Figure 10) Value proposition Diversified business innovation on a global scale will provide individualized, tailored and dedicated services to cater for virtually every possible user need. This will also, for example, allow for more community- and “altruistic”- oriented services. Traditionally packaged services, like TV, will increasingly be broken up and offered directly from producers and content owners to consumers. Sports, for instance, will be less and less sold as general distribution rights and increasingly as online “tickets to specific packages” that consumers buy. As a consequence, the business models and value chain for advertising will continue to change and adapt to the new conditions. Market As a result of the fragmentation “on top”, different forms of branded portals and other intermediaries (including affiliated communities and advertising networks) will be replaced by much more direct relationships between users and service providers. Figure 10: The Service Innovator Operator Business Model Canvas Key Partners Facilitating network operators Customers (user generated content) Trends watchers Key Activities Market research Product/server improvements and innovation Facilitation Value Propositions User generated content Innovative services Customer Relationship Pay as you go E-services Un-biased collaboraton communities Openess freedom Customer Segments Early adoptors  Leading enterprises  Many unique customer and enterprise needs (global)Key Resources Community intelligence Social platforms on top of intelligent network Channels Moving from branded portals towards direct relationships via online channels Cost Structure Marketing costs Improvement/innovation costs Revenue Streams Subscription for services Pay per use and pay as you go
  21. 21. 21 Infrastructure Maintaining this direct relationship and facilitating innovation together with customers is a key activity of this new service innovator. As for partnerships, these will primarily be with facilitating network operators and international regulation driven by facilitating operators. But also the customers themselves will be seen as partners for these service operators. Financials Users put together their own service package and “pay as you go” rather than buying a pre-defined package. By doing this, they will ensure that all services are tailored to their particular needs and that they are always using the latest, coolest, and most innovative services. 4.4 Green Shift Business Model (Figure 11) The “Green Shift” business model is somewhat different from the other business models. This model could be combined with aspects from the other business models, as it only focuses on specific items of business development. It does not say anything regarding the integration or separation of brands and networks. The green shift will be interwoven in all the business models that could exist in this scenario along the following details. Consumption and business relationship patterns will change as every value proposition (price) will include sustainability. Sustainability information and tags on all commercial goods will be introduced. People, enterprises, and governments world-wide will demand green ICT services that will help them maintain and expand their sustainable lifestyle, business activities and societal services. Value proposition Climate-efficient online services will be delivered by trusted utility providers using loosely integrated all- purpose user devices. System Integration and IT companies addressing enterprise verticals will be best suited to capture sustainability opportunities in the business domain. Many users will demand an extended lifetime of devices, systems, and technologies. Since users will focus less on physical product upgrades, the hardware and entertainment market will move slowly. Instead the focus will be on software upgradability, products reuse and on extending the lifetime of existing (legacy) systems and technologies. Finally, government regulations will require that more advanced service support functions (e.g. Quality of Services for telepresence, payment, and security handling) will be incorporated in the basic infrastructure offerings to increase the reliability, robustness, and Figure 11: The Green Shift Business Model Canvas Key Partners Public and media partners Green partners (eg. datacenters) Key Activities Monitoring Brand building (green marketing) Network management Value Propositions Green (Brands) Lifestyle management Customer Relationship Green story telling Trust Customer Segments Green aware customers Key Resources Legal department (proof your green intention) Monitoring skills Channels Energy efficient distribution via local vendors Online channels Cost Structure Marketing costs Monitoring/transparancy (eg. activity based CO2 mapping) Revenue Streams Sustainability premium/government grants Prove green value proposition  Raise customer value
  22. 22. 22 utility of the networks. This means that also legal and monitoring activities towards own activities will become crucial (proof of green intention). Infrastructure Actions will aim to reduce energy consumption and transportation, increase recycling, minimize waste of scarce resources, increase efficiency, and to encourage sustainable business and personal behavior. For example, taxes, pricing, and other regulations will aim at limiting air travel and electricity consumption, and mandatory carbon trading schemes as well as individual sustainability accounting will be introduced. Therefore network management, maintenance and monitoring (network providers) will become essential. Green marketing is most important. It will become important to show the world/consumers that the network that is used is Green. This needs to be proven by being able to give insight into the network’s sustainability footprint (costs and CO2 mapping) and to be able to steer upon that as well. This can also be used for marketing purposes (green brands and green lifestyle). Operators will be forced to pool their resources (e.g. network sharing), use renewable energy sources, and to separate their network business from the service side. Market Besides that, channels will have to be Green, no direct additional requirements are defined specifically in this scenario. Financials Costing will be mainly focused on Marketing, Transparency (eg. activity based CO2 mapping) and sustainability investments. Revenues are generated from sustainability premium/government grants and customer driven by proven green value proposition, that will increase customer value. 4.5 All-Inclusive Business Model (Figure 12) Users will be served by one service provider with one stop shopping of complete lifestyle and business style deals. The focus will be on convenience, trust, and simplicity. The all-inclusive companies will increase entry barriers for competitors to capitalize on large locked- in customer bases. Less competition will mean less innovation and service differentiation. Also, the lack of viable alternatives will benefit the large players. Value proposition In this market offering a complete package (one stop shopping) and convenience in both purchasing and use is important to the customer. Trust and single point of contact must be realized. This is the base for the value proposition. With fairly slow innovation and low service differentiation, cost of ownership, and economies of scale (operational excellence) will move to the top of the agenda. To the furthest extent possible players will try to push complexity, costs, and risks backwards in the value chain, by means of outsourcing of activities not considered as core business. In spite of the outsourcing they will demand services that are tailored to their specific offerings and operational models. There will be no major business separation of networks and services, despite well-defined technology interfaces. Vertical business integration will be essential to the operational model, i.e. to capitalize on comprehensive propositions towards a large locked-in customer base. Market An integrated/all-inclusive offering is made to different customer segments. Depending on different customer segments (either on for example costs or lifestyle) brands are created. In order to realize the service, partners are very important. Customers are attracted by a strong brand. The customer relation will be based on loyalty to be able to make the right offer for the right segment.
  23. 23. 23 Infrastructure The main activities in this business model are branding and partnering. Strategic supplier management will be a key activity. Also enterprise management processes are critical, like legal, finance, monitoring, etc.. In the “All-Inclusive” scenario large regional players emerge. A large group of partners is needed to realize the services of these players. Networks of suppliers arise, in which the large regional suppliers are very powerful (powerplay). Overall, vendors of networks, services and devices will be heavily dependent on the all-inclusive provider’s business. With larger and fewer integrated players, vendors must consolidate and build closer ties with customers in a more predictive and slow moving market. It may even be possible that the regional suppliers themselves will become brokers and outsource all activities to their suppliers. Financials Because cost of ownership is high on the agenda, flexible costing is required for these large players. As with the other scenarios activity based costing will be an important aspect in order to steer on costs. Apart from this, companies will require large amounts of money, because of the costs of take-overs (vertical integration). This room for investment needs to be created in the cost and investment structure. Depending on the segment, revenues can be generated either via subscriptions per package or pay per use. Figure 12: The All-Inclusive Business Model Canvas Key Partners Network of suppliers (possible all-inclusive player is broker). All-Inclusive player in relation to suppliers Key Activities Branding (either on costs or lifestyle) Puchasing/partnering (based on forecast) Value Propositions Complete package (one stop shopping) Convenience (parchasing and use) Trust Single point of contact Customer Relationship Loyalty To be able to make the right offer for that specific segment Customer Segments Specific consumer segments Specific enterprise segments Key Resources Huge pipes (excess capacity) and local server farms Distributed switching and routing Extreme standardization and industry scale Channels Partners Branded portals Cost Structure Market research Flexible cost structure (activity based costing) Revenue Streams Subscription for package Pay per use (depending on segment)
  24. 24. 24 Concluding Remarks The TIME industry remains dynamic. Looking towards the future at 2020, the value generators within the TIME industry will stay as they already are: Content management, networking, system and access application management, and customer management. However, their characteristics are changing with the ongoing convergence within the TIME industry. With the aid of the four scenarios and related business models sketched in this paper, companies will be able to get grip on the most important developments in their business. The four defined scenarios are each very different and require fundamentally different choices and investments. Each scenario will raise important strategic questions for TIME companies, and will also help them to prepare for different future developments. Uncertain factors such as user preferences and the degree of market fragmentation in the service provider market will require companies to make choices. Most likely you will find that quite some effort is required in order to make the jump, as the different scenarios show that in this rapidly changing market, in ten years time everything is still possible. Different economic markets could each lead to different scenarios, which can evolve in international or continental distinction in business. Even hybrid variants can arise due to customer orientation. It is clear that, although the course of the future is still open, there are some actions companies can take in order to prepare for the future. On one hand we have concluded, that the four scenarios are each very different. On the other hand, the business models show a number of similarities. These similarities result, next to the likely truths, in so-called no-regret strategies for TIME companies: Implement activity based costing; activity based costing will become more and more important. Insight into all aspects of the organization and running the business is crucial to survival. Transform Network Management; focus on scale in Network Operations and embrace the IT transformation and put Network/IT at the heart of the company. Build up partnership skills; partnership is key, especially in the User’s Choice scenario, distinctive partnership capability will mark the rise or fall of TIME companies. Enhanced trust and reputation: creating trust is another returning aspect, either with customer or partners. This is something that is not common practice in most companies and will need to be developed. In this reconnaissance of the 2020 TIME industry it is not the intention to answer the question which business model suits your company best. Companies have to develop detailed strategies and tactics to cope with these possible futures. To retrieve maximum value from this paper, TIME companies may challenge their strategy against the presented scenarios. The no-regret strategies, to start with, can be used to determine if your organization is fit for the future. Strategic discussions can be started with the staff to see how future proof the business model is. Ericsson and Atos Consulting are able to support you in facilitating such a process, as well as in translating the rather abstract scenarios and business models to your specific business challenges.
  25. 25. 25 About the authors Patrick Blankers, Manager Strategy Regulatory Affairs at Ericsson, started his career at KPN Research, after finalizing his MSc degree at Eindhoven University, in 1988. As a research engineer, Patrick has been involved in various European projects and in international standardization activities. In 1995, he joined Ericsson in the Netherlands, as a technical consultant. During his carreer at Ericsson, Patrick has been involved in many commercial and strategic projects. During the past two years, Patrick has organized several customer workshops about Vision 2020. His current responsibility is head of strategy and regulatory affairs. In addition, Patrick is also a part-time teacher at the Hague University, specialized in telecommunication training programs. Pieter Lugtigheid MA Bc, Principal Consultant at Atos Consulting, is a management consultant since 1997 when he started at Panfox Consulting. In 2001 Pieter joined KPMG Management Consulting and subsequently Atos Consulting in 2004. Within Atos Consulting he worked as Director Global Consulting Telecom and Media in 2008. Pieter is currently responsible for sales and delivery of business and operational transformation engagements with a clear focus on “making strategy happen”. Translation and implementation of strategy into clear business models, governance, business processes with a customer, operational, and quality focus. Within Atos Origin International he holds the position of Global Portfolio Manager for the agile enterprise solution. Pieter is also Lecturer and Master Thesis coach at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (Strategy, Organization, and Consultancy). Agnes Kroes MSc is Executive Business Consultant at Atos Consulting. In 2004 Agnes joined Atos Consulting and she has over five years of experience in the telecom industry. In her work Agnes focusses on advisory and she is a projectmanager in business and operational transformation engagements, in which translation and implementation of strategy into clear business models, governance, business processes with a customer, operational, and quality focus is executed. Ashwin Sardjoe MSc, MBA is Executive Business Consultant at Atos Consulting and has thirteen years of experience within the telecom industry. His interest and work focus on aligning telecom business strategy with IT technology strategy and solutions. Ashwin is engaged in both advisory and project management roles, continuously bridging the business-IT gap by fostering mutual understanding and facilitating teamwork. The authors would like to thank Ard-Pieter de Man, Philip van Kappen, and Ramon Hollands for their contribution.
  26. 26. 26 About Atos Consulting Atos Consulting is a leading international business and IT consultancy organisation that employs over 2,500 driven professional across the globe. Atos Consulting is the partner for customers looking for effective solutions in the field of returns, organisation, processes and control. It provides in-depth knowledge of sector-specific primary processes and secondary processes such as Finance, HRM and IT. If required, Atos Consulting also provides interim management or takes over processes. Atos Consulting is independent, provides expert advice and works closely together for and with customers. Atos Consulting is an independent part of Atos Origin, the largest listed European IT service provider (turnover of over 5.1 billion euros), employing over 49,000 people. Atos Origin enables its customers – Top 500 businesses – to transform their vision into results through strategic consulting, systems integration and managed operations. Atos Origin is the Worldwide Information Technology Partner for the Olympic Games and has a client base of international blue-chip companies across all sectors. Atos Origin is listed on the Paris Eurolist Market and trades as Atos Origin, Atos Worldline and Atos Consulting. About Ericsson Ericsson is the world’s leading provider of technology and services to telecom operators. Ericsson is the leader in 2G, 3G and 4G mobile technologies, and provides support for networks with over 2 billion subscribers and has the leading position in managed services. The company’s portfolio comprises mobile and fixed network infrastructure, telecom services, software, broadband and multimedia solutions for operators, enterprises and the media industry. The Sony Ericsson and ST-Ericsson joint ventures provide consumers with feature-rich personal mobile devices. Scenario development has been a core activity of the company’s strategy process. In 2007, Ericsson started a large-scale exercise to develop “Vision2020”, which also resulted in the four scenarios as described in this publication. Ericsson is advancing its vision of being the “prime driver in an all-communicating world” through innovation, technology, and sustainable business solutions. Working in 175 countries, more than 80,000 employees generated revenue of SEK 206.5 billion (USD 27.1 billion) in 2009. Founded in 1876 with the headquarters in Stockholm, Sweden, Ericsson is listed on OMX NASDAQ, Stockholm and NASDAQ New York. about the companies
  27. 27. 27
  28. 28. Ericsson Telecommunicatie BV PO Box 8 5120 AA Rijen The Netherlands Tel: +31 (0)161 24 9911 marketing.nl@ericsson.com www.ericsson.com Atos Consulting Papendorpseweg 93 3528 BJ Utrecht The Netherlands Tel: +31 (0)88 265 8888 info.consulting@atosorigin.com www.atosconsulting.nl Atos, Atos and fish symbol, Atos Origin and fish symbol, Atos Consulting, and the fish itself are registered trademarks of Atos Origin SA. October 2010 © 2010 Atos Origin

×