Supreme  Allied  Commander  Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, ...
 
“ We need to be clear about the security environment we are going to be living in.  And we need to be equally clear – and ...
Session One Agenda <ul><li>Introduce the Multiple Futures Intellectual Framework  </li></ul><ul><li>Present work sample of...
The Intellectual Framework, Explained Phase 1: May – Jul 08 NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 Ju...
<ul><li>Initial Research </li></ul><ul><li>HQ SACT </li></ul><ul><li>Globalisation </li></ul><ul><li>(Inter)national </li>...
<ul><li>Initial Research </li></ul><ul><li>HQ SACT </li></ul><ul><li>Globalisation </li></ul><ul><li>(Inter)national </li>...
Blank Slide – For 2 nd  notes page on “Drivers Refined through events” slide
Environment Globalisation Governance Resources Technology Urbanisation Demographics Extremism Net/Comms
Session One – Discussion Period <ul><li>In your opinion, have we missed any significant Drivers? </li></ul><ul><li>Which D...
Session One – Introductory Drivers Brief NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08   Morphology ...
Morphology Tables – An Introduction NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08   Driver Option 1 ...
Morphology Tables – An Introduction NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08   Driver Option 1 ...
Morphology Tables – An Introduction NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08   Driver Option 1 ...
Morphology Tables – An Introduction NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08   Driver Option 1 ...
Supreme  Allied  Commander  Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, ...
Supreme  Allied  Commander  Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, ...
Session Two Agenda <ul><li>Clear understanding of intellectual framework </li></ul><ul><li>What Futures are, and what they...
MC Futures Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
Phase One Futures Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
Reading the Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
Reading the Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
Reading the Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
<ul><li>Growing resource competition, fears of NBC attacks (fueled by frustrated immigrants) encourage nationalism in stat...
<ul><li>As Non-State Actors grow in importance, high resource prices and natural degradation cannot be addressed by relati...
<ul><li>Example Future 1 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Interstate warfare returns to the agenda </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk of...
<ul><li>Example Future 1 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Interstate warfare returns to the agenda </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk of...
MC Futures Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
Supreme  Allied  Commander  Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, ...
Supreme  Allied  Commander  Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, ...
Session Three Agenda <ul><li>Re-Visit Intellectual Framework & Phase One </li></ul><ul><li>Detail Phase Two  </li></ul><ul...
Today Re-Visited <ul><li>MFP preparing for, not predicting, the future </li></ul><ul><li>Support & sustain strategic dialo...
Intellectual Framework <ul><li>Gather data during Phase 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Flesh out Futures landscape, create narratives...
Roadmap 2009 Supporting Military-Strategic Dialogue Developing Core Body of Work NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT ...
Discussion Period NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
Supreme  Allied  Commander  Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, ...
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Mc Visit V6

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  • Mc Visit V6

    1. 1. Supreme Allied Commander Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 2008 BGEN José Demaría, ESP F Deputy Assistant Chief of Staff Strategic Concepts, Policy & Interoperability Sub-Division NATO HQ SACT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 Session 1 – Introductory Drivers Brief
    2. 3. “ We need to be clear about the security environment we are going to be living in. And we need to be equally clear – and honest – about the limits to what can sensibly be achieved by our Alliance.” - NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer – 15 Mar 08
    3. 4. Session One Agenda <ul><li>Introduce the Multiple Futures Intellectual Framework </li></ul><ul><li>Present work sample of work converging on ‘most relevant’ Drivers </li></ul><ul><li>Move to moderated discussion </li></ul><ul><li>Conduct a short analysis activity </li></ul>NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    4. 5. The Intellectual Framework, Explained Phase 1: May – Jul 08 NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 Phase 2: Aug 08 – Feb 09 Phase 3: Jan – Feb 09 Writing & Reporting
    5. 6. <ul><li>Initial Research </li></ul><ul><li>HQ SACT </li></ul><ul><li>Globalisation </li></ul><ul><li>(Inter)national </li></ul><ul><li>Governance </li></ul><ul><li>Resources </li></ul><ul><li>Networking & </li></ul><ul><li>Communication </li></ul><ul><li>Environment </li></ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Urbanisation </li></ul><ul><li>Demographics </li></ul><ul><li>Terrorism & </li></ul><ul><li>Extremism </li></ul>Drivers Refined through Events RT 1 RUSI London, UK Governance Energy/ Resources Demographics Environment Networks Terrorism (Including WMD) Social Inequality Ideology/Identity Shaping Multiple Futures ‘Body of Work’ (Discussion Paper), which articulates most relevant Drivers for NATO NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 RT 2 HCSS/TNO Den Haag, NLD Governance Resources Demographics Environment Technology Networks Immigration/ Migration Economics/Povert/ Wealth/Ideology/ Identity COTC WG Strausberg, DEU Governance Energy Demand Climate Change Ideology Demographics WMD Proliferation & Delivery Technology WS 1 NDU Budapest, HUN Demography/ Migration Resources Environment/ Climate Change Ideology / Extremism Governance Social/ Economic Inequality Geopolitics Pandemics
    6. 7. <ul><li>Initial Research </li></ul><ul><li>HQ SACT </li></ul><ul><li>Globalisation </li></ul><ul><li>(Inter)national </li></ul><ul><li>Governance </li></ul><ul><li>Resources </li></ul><ul><li>Networking & </li></ul><ul><li>Communication </li></ul><ul><li>Environment </li></ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Urbanisation </li></ul><ul><li>Demographics </li></ul><ul><li>Terrorism & </li></ul><ul><li>Extremism </li></ul>Drivers Refined through Events RT 2 HCSS/TNO Den Haag, NLD Governance Resources Demographics Environment Technology Networks Immigration/ Migration Economics /Poverty/ Wealth Ideology / Identity RT 1 RUSI London, UK Governance Energy/ Resources Demographics Environment Networks Terrorism (Including WMD) Social Inequality Ideology / Identity COTC WG Strausberg, DEU Governance Energy Demand Climate Change Ideology Demographics WMD Proliferation & Delivery Technology WS 1 Nat Def Uni Budapest, HUN Demography/ Migration Resources Environment/ Climate ChangeIdeology / Extremism Governance Social/ Economic Inequality Geopolitics Pandemics Shaping Multiple Futures ‘Body of Work’ (Discussion Paper), which articulates most relevant Drivers for NATO NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Globalisation Resources Net/Comms Urbanisation Demographics Extremism Governance Environment Technology
    7. 8. Blank Slide – For 2 nd notes page on “Drivers Refined through events” slide
    8. 9. Environment Globalisation Governance Resources Technology Urbanisation Demographics Extremism Net/Comms
    9. 10. Session One – Discussion Period <ul><li>In your opinion, have we missed any significant Drivers? </li></ul><ul><li>Which Drivers do you consider to be the most relevant to NATO? </li></ul><ul><li>How are Drivers influenced by regional perspectives? </li></ul>NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    10. 11. Session One – Introductory Drivers Brief NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 Morphology Tables – An Introduction
    11. 12. Morphology Tables – An Introduction NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 Driver Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option N Globalisation Accelerates Remains constant Slows Reverses Governance Nationalism increases Non State Actors, Corporations dominant Non-State Actors challenge (weak) nations World governance achieved Energy & Resources Global resource surplus High volatility to meet demand, prices high Supply equal to demand Demand exceeds supply Urbanisation City growth increases Cities grow at same rate as populations City growth slows City populations decline Demographics Old Europe Young neighbours: no migration Massive European immigration by young neighbours European population decline Young European population bulge Terrorism Attacks increase Attacks more unconventional Attacks decline CBRN attack Technology Rate of advance accelerates Rate of advance stable Rate of advance weak Advances stop Environment Global Warming Desertification and fresh water scarcity Ecosystems & Habitats in decline Environmental quality improves Networks & Communications Networks improve global connectivity Networks hampered by cyber -vulnerabilities Actors exploit superior network capabilities against NATO Networks increase human inequality
    12. 13. Morphology Tables – An Introduction NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 Driver Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option N Globalisation Accelerates Remains constant Slows Reverses Governance Nationalism increases Non State Actors, Corporations dominant Non-State Actors challenge (weak) nations World governance achieved Energy & Resources Global resource surplus High volatility to meet demand, prices high Supply equal to demand Demand exceeds supply Urbanisation City growth increases Cities grow at same rate as populations City growth slows City populations decline Demographics Old Europe Young neighbours: no migration Massive European immigration by young neighbours European population decline Young European population bulge Terrorism Attacks increase Attacks more unconventional Attacks decline CBRN attack Technology Rate of advance accelerates Rate of advance stable Rate of advance weak Advances stop Environment Global Warming Desertification and fresh water scarcity Ecosystems & Habitats in decline Environmental quality improves Networks & Communications Networks improve global connectivity Networks hampered by cyber -vulnerabilities Actors exploit superior network capabilities against NATO Networks increase human inequality
    13. 14. Morphology Tables – An Introduction NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 Driver Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option N Globalisation Accelerates Remains constant Slows Reverses Governance Nationalism increases Non State Actors, Corporations dominant Non-State Actors challenge (weak) nations World governance achieved Energy & Resources Global resource surplus High volatility to meet demand, prices high Supply equal to demand Demand exceeds supply Urbanisation City growth increases Cities grow at same rate as populations City growth slows City populations decline Demographics Old Europe Young neighbours: no migration Massive European immigration by young neighbours European population decline Young European population bulge Terrorism Attacks increase Attacks more unconventional Attacks decline CBRN attack Technology Rate of advance accelerates Rate of advance stable Rate of advance weak Advances stop Environment Global Warming Desertification and fresh water scarcity Ecosystems & Habitats in decline Environmental quality improves Networks & Communications Networks improve global connectivity Networks hampered by cyber -vulnerabilities Actors exploit superior network capabilities against NATO Networks increase human inequality
    14. 15. Morphology Tables – An Introduction NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 Driver Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option N Globalisation Accelerates Remains constant Slows Reverses Governance Nationalism increases Non State Actors, Corporations dominant Non-State Actors challenge (weak) nations World governance achieved Energy & Resources Global resource surplus High volatility to meet demand, prices high Supply equal to demand Demand exceeds supply Urbanisation City growth increases Cities grow at same rate as populations City growth slows City populations decline Demographics Old Europe Young neighbours: no migration Massive European immigration by young neighbours European population decline Young European population bulge Terrorism Attacks increase Attacks more unconventional Attacks decline CBRN attack Technology Rate of advance accelerates Rate of advance stable Rate of advance weak Advances stop Environment Global Warming Desertification and fresh water scarcity Ecosystems & Habitats in decline Environmental quality improves Networks & Communications Networks improve global connectivity Networks hampered by cyber -vulnerabilities Actors exploit superior network capabilities against NATO Networks increase human inequality
    15. 16. Supreme Allied Commander Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 2008 Session 1 – Introductory Drivers Brief BGEN José Demaría, ESP F Deputy Assistant Chief of Staff Strategic Concepts, Policy & Interoperability Sub-Division NATO HQ SACT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    16. 17. Supreme Allied Commander Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 2008 Session 2 – Moving from Drivers to Futures NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 BGEN José Demaría, ESP F Deputy Assistant Chief of Staff Strategic Concepts, Policy & Interoperability Sub-Division NATO HQ SACT
    17. 18. Session Two Agenda <ul><li>Clear understanding of intellectual framework </li></ul><ul><li>What Futures are, and what they are not </li></ul><ul><li>Describe how to synthesize futures and derive military implications </li></ul><ul><li>Perceive your own vision of plausible futures </li></ul>NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    18. 19. MC Futures Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    19. 20. Phase One Futures Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    20. 21. Reading the Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    21. 22. Reading the Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    22. 23. Reading the Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    23. 24. <ul><li>Growing resource competition, fears of NBC attacks (fueled by frustrated immigrants) encourage nationalism in state machines that feel capable </li></ul><ul><li>Process of economic globalisation under pressure from domestic audiences, including global free trade and regional political, economic and security integration </li></ul>Example Future 1 NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    24. 25. <ul><li>As Non-State Actors grow in importance, high resource prices and natural degradation cannot be addressed by relatively weak states. Consequently, NATO states see themselves faced suddenly in cyberspace by superior opponent </li></ul><ul><li>States struggle to balance delivering security and wider services to citizens </li></ul>Example Future 2 NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    25. 26. <ul><li>Example Future 1 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Interstate warfare returns to the agenda </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk of aggressive geopolitics ; tensions in security communities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Growing vulnerability of critical infrastructure; opportunities for Non-State Actors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Domestic instability, threat to democratic regimes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Example Future 2 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>As all organisations get empowered, intelligence is king - and privately owned </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Budget strains cause strategic weak spots in R&D </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social instability, decreased allegiance to national states </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Growth in Private Military, Security, State, Space Companies </li></ul></ul>Toward Implications NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    26. 27. <ul><li>Example Future 1 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Interstate warfare returns to the agenda </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk of aggressive geopolitics ; tensions in security communities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Growing vulnerability of critical infrastructure; opportunities for NSAs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Domestic instability, threat to democratic regimes </li></ul></ul>Toward Implications NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 <ul><li>Example Future 2 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>As all organizations get empowered, intelligence is king - and privately owned </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Budget strains cause strategic weak spots in R&D </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social instability, decreased allegiance to national states </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Growth in Private Military, Security, State, Space Companies </li></ul></ul>C4ISR & ORGANISATIONAL EQUIVALENTS NUCLEAR DETERRENCE MULTI-PURPOSE, COMBAT-CAPABLE FORCES
    27. 28. MC Futures Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    28. 29. Supreme Allied Commander Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 2008 Session 2 – Futures-Building Brief NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 BGEN José Demaría, ESP F Deputy Assistant Chief of Staff Strategic Concepts, Policy & Interoperability Sub-Division NATO HQ SACT
    29. 30. Supreme Allied Commander Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 2008 Session 3 – The Road to SACT Seminar NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 BGEN José Demaría, ESP F Deputy Assistant Chief of Staff Strategic Concepts, Policy & Interoperability Sub-Division NATO HQ SACT
    30. 31. Session Three Agenda <ul><li>Re-Visit Intellectual Framework & Phase One </li></ul><ul><li>Detail Phase Two </li></ul><ul><li>Timeline for Phase Three </li></ul><ul><li>Final Discussion </li></ul>NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    31. 32. Today Re-Visited <ul><li>MFP preparing for, not predicting, the future </li></ul><ul><li>Support & sustain strategic dialogue </li></ul><ul><li>Identify & refine Drivers to synthesise Futures landscape </li></ul><ul><li>Derive security & military implications </li></ul>NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    32. 33. Intellectual Framework <ul><li>Gather data during Phase 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Flesh out Futures landscape, create narratives </li></ul><ul><li>Assess risk, derive security, military implications </li></ul>NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    33. 34. Roadmap 2009 Supporting Military-Strategic Dialogue Developing Core Body of Work NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 SACT Visit to MC FCRT Intro for D&G March 2008 Final Report on Multiple Futures March 2009 SACT Seminar October 2008 MC-VISIT ~Today~ MC-Visit Report Presentation Feb 2009 Summary Conf Mar 2009 Event 1 27 May 2008 Event 2 2 June 2008 Event 4 24 July 2008 Event 3 2 July 2008 Event 5 Sep 2008 Event 6 Sep 2008 Event 7 Sep 2008 Event 9 Nov 2008 Event 8 Sep 2008 Core Team OS 1 1-2 May 2008 Core Team OS 2 29-30 Jul 2008 Core Team OS 3 Nov 2008 Core Team OS 4 Jan 2009 SMPC, COTC Nov/Dec 2008 COTC WG 10-11 June 2008 COMPLETED EVENTS Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
    34. 35. Discussion Period NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08
    35. 36. Supreme Allied Commander Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 2008 Session 3 – The Road to SACT Seminar NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 BGEN José Demaría, ESP F Deputy Assistant Chief of Staff Strategic Concepts, Policy & Interoperability Sub-Division NATO HQ SACT

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