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Literature Review (CORe project)
 

Literature Review (CORe project)

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Literature Review (CORe project) Literature Review (CORe project) Presentation Transcript

  • Population Mobility in Chicago June 4, 2007
  • The Metropolitan Planning Council is a nonprofit, nonpartisan group of business and civic leaders committed to serving the public interest through the promotion and implementation of sensible planning and development policies necessary for a world-class Chicago region.
  • Population Mobility in Chicago
    • CORe Goals
    • Why Mobility Matters
    • Mobility in the Region
    • Understanding Mobility
    • Research Approaches
    • CORe Approach
  • I. CORe Goals
    • Test conventional wisdom about mobility choices
    • Fill gaps in existing knowledge about mobility behavior in Chicago
    • Provide a portrait of salient factors influencing mobility decisions
    • Provide evidence about who comprises these groups
    • Identify opportunities for policy interventions
  • II. Why Mobility Matters
  • When is mobility bad for neighborhoods? Population Decline High Population Turnover Disinvestment Weak bonds btwn. neighbors Physical disorder Poor collective problem solving Social disorder Loss of unique social fabric Low racial and economic diversity Services mismatch
  • III. Mobility in the Region
  • Components of Population Change: Region 1990-2000
  • Components of Population Change: Region 2000-2004
  • Population Change, 1990-2000 Map source: Metro Chicago Information Center http://info.mcfol.org/WWW/DataInfo/MapReports/mapPDF/Chicago_Pop_Chg_by_Number.pdf
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  • National Migration from Cook County by Region Data from: County to County Migration Flow Files. Internal Revenue Service, 1993-2005. Out-Migrants In-migrants Midwest 68% 64% Northeast 5% 8% South 16% 16% West 11% 12%
  • Net Migration To/From Cook County, 1993-2005 Data from: County to County Migration Flow Files. Internal Revenue Service, 1993-2005. Location In Out Net Dupage Co., IL 192061 329457 -137,396 Will Co., IL 56622 184921 -128,299 Lake Co., IL 86362 185304 -98,942 Kane Co., IL 42984 101536 -58,552 Lake Co., IN 34544 80875 -46,331 McHenry Co., IL 22379 68687 -46,308 Phoenix, AZ 12080 37343 -25,263 Las Vegas, NV 5969 20801 -14,832 Kankakee Co., IL 6518 13046 -6,528 Twin Cities, MN 10611 15303 -4,692 Dallas, TX 9304 13700 -4,396 Los Angeles, CA 24226 14229 -4,282 New York, NY 9947 15279 -3,553 San Diego , CA 9858 12962 -3,104 Milwaukee, WI 13105 16004 -2,899
  • In-migration to Cook County: National, 1993-2005 Data from: County to County Migration Flow Files. Internal Revenue Service, 1993-2005.
  • Out-migration from Cook County, National 1993-2005 Data from: County to County Migration Flow Files. Internal Revenue Service, 1993-2005.
  • In-migration to Cook County, Midwest Detail 1993-2005 Data from: County to County Migration Flow Files. Internal Revenue Service, 1993-2005.
  • Out-migration from Cook County, Midwest Detail 1993-2005 Data from: County to County Migration Flow Files. Internal Revenue Service, 1993-2005.
  • IV. Understanding Mobility
  • Why Do People Move Away?
    • Consumption: households move to the suburbs for more housing for less money?
    • Displacement: households forced out by rising rents/home prices?
    Economics
      • Housing
      • Employment
      • Transportation
  • Map source: “Immigration, Gentrification and Chicago Race/Ethnic Relations in the New Global Era,” Metro Chicago Information Center, 2004. available online at: http://info.mcfol.org/WWW/datainfo/hottopics/artsculture/immigration.asp?pagenbr=1. Economic Gain/Decline, 1990-2000 Economics
      • Housing
      • Employment
      • Transportation
  • Economics
      • Housing
      • Employment
      • Transportation
  • Economics
      • Housing
      • Employment
      • Transportation
  • Location
      • Public Services/ Amenities
      • Schools
  • Environment
      • Crime Levels
      • Environment for children
      • Neighborhood Stress
  • Why Do People Come? Why Do People Stay?
  • Economics
      • Homeowner-ship
      • Employment
      • Transportation
  • Social Context
      • Identity
      • Neighborhood Attachment
  • Lifestyle
      • City Amenities
  • V. Research Approaches
    • Data Sources
    • Challenges
      • Methods:
      • Revealed Preference Analysis
      • Attitudinal Surveys
      • Stated Preference Surveys
  • Revealed Preference Analysis
    • Looks at actual relocation decisions using census or other data and examines characteristics of sending and receiving locations for significant differences
    • Uses location decisions as proxy for value of elements like schools
    • Problems:
      • Difficult to model both individual level and aggregate factors
      • Lack of direct responses
  • Attitudinal Surveys
    • Subjects rate their response to different aspects of cities
      • Metro Chicago Information Center Survey
      • Pittsburgh Residents Survey
      • Twin Cities Metro Residents Survey
      • Kids in Cities College-Educated Survey
    • Relatively easy to administer
    • Problems:
      • Respondents may misrepresent actual reasons for moving
  • Stated Preference Surveys
    • Respondents compare randomized ‘bundles’ of neighborhood attributes:
      • Atlanta Smarttraq Project
      • Edmonton Sensitivity to Elements of Urban Form and Transportation
      • Preferences for Neo Traditional Neighborhood Designs (Columbus, OH)
    • By forcing respondents to make tradeoffs, answers will be more reliable
    • Problems:
      • Some misrepresentation still possible
      • Difficult to design
      • More useful for understanding general preferences
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  • VI. CORe Approach
    • Fill gaps in existing knowledge about mobility behavior in Chicago
    • Test conventional wisdom about mobility choices
    • Provide a portrait of salient factors influencing mobility decisions
    • Provide detailed evidence about who comprises these groups
    • Identify opportunities for policy interventions
  • CORe Approach
    • Who?
      • Groups vulnerable to decline
        • Young families
        • African-Americans
        • Middle Class
      • Groups showing increases
        • 20s and early 30-somethings
        • Empty Nesters
      • Movers as well as potential movers
  • CORe Approach
    • How?
      • Direct discussions with individuals about their own reasons for moving or staying
      • Detailed survey work?
      • Analysis of neighborhoods, demographic change?
    • Why?
      • Understand mobility in the context of indicators of healthy neighborhoods