Lessons learned from
Futures Studies:
towards a method for Web Science
Dominic DiFranzo,
Benjamin Heitmann,
Betty Purwandari

Motivation: Web
Science for predictions?
• Could we have predicted
Twitter?
• Goal of a systems level
view of the Web:
Understanding the
possible futures of the
Web
• Predictions could allow
engineering and shaping
a better Web

The science of predictions:
Futures studies
• The Web = Technology +
Social Element
• Predictions need to take
both into account
• Futures studies takes
models and methods
from a broad range of
fields: economics, sociology,
geography, history,
engineering, mathematics,
psychology, technology,
tourism, physics, biology,
astronomy, theology

Objectives of Futures
Studies
1. Examine possible, probable,
preferable and “wild card”
futures
2. Holistic/systems view of
prediction domain
3. Challenges hidden
assumptions behind future
predictions.
4. Provide blue print to connect
extrapolated and normative
research
Source: Futures studies article on Wikipedia

“Images of the future”
• Foundational method:
• How a society views its
future, affects the future
direction of that society.
• Expectations of the future,
relate to past trends.
• Analysing “future images”
allows making better
predictions.

Science Fiction
• Snowcrash: Metaverse
(Second Life)
• Rainbows End:
Augmented reality(sixth
sense)
• Down and Out in
Magical Kingdom: Wuffie
(ebay feedback)

Trends
• Wired cover story: The Long
Boom, a history of the future(1997)
• 40 years of growth from 1980 to
2020
• tech waves: computers, telecom,
biotech, nanotech, alt energy
• optimistic re growth of all world
economies
• Superstruct game: prediction game
based on Web 2.0 interaction

Methodologies
• quantitative (extrapolation):
• trend analysis (times series analysis)
• qualitative:
• Scenario planning
• Backcasting
• more on our wiki page

Summary: How to apply
futures studies to Web Science
• Studying the current Web is not enough, we
need prediction methodologies to help us
build a better web.
• New method for Web Science: combine
normative and extrapolating methods
• emphasise plurality of relevant futures (you
can learn more from multiple futures)