0
Lessons learned from
    Futures Studies:
towards a method for Web Science


         Dominic DiFranzo,
         Benjamin ...
Motivation: Web
Science for predictions?
•   Could we have predicted
    Twitter?

•   Goal of a systems level
    view of...
The science of predictions:
     Futures studies
•   The Web = Technology +
    Social Element

•   Predictions need to ta...
Objectives of Futures
        Studies
1. Examine possible, probable,
   preferable and “wild card”
   futures

2. Holistic...
“Images of the future”
•   Foundational method:

•   How a society views its
    future, affects the future
    direction ...
Science Fiction
•   Snowcrash: Metaverse
    (Second Life)

•   Rainbows End:
    Augmented reality(sixth
    sense)

•   ...
Trends
•   Wired cover story: The Long
    Boom, a history of the future(1997)

    •   40 years of growth from 1980 to
  ...
Methodologies
• quantitative (extrapolation):
 • trend analysis (times series analysis)
• qualitative:
 • Scenario plannin...
Summary: How to apply
futures studies to Web Science
• Studying the current Web is not enough, we
  need prediction method...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Lessons learned from Futures Studies: Towards a method for Web Science

945

Published on

Presentation about applying the methodology of Futures Studies to Web Science.

Student Project at the Web Science Summer School 09

Published in: Technology, Education
0 Comments
2 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
945
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
41
Comments
0
Likes
2
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "Lessons learned from Futures Studies: Towards a method for Web Science"

  1. 1. Lessons learned from Futures Studies: towards a method for Web Science Dominic DiFranzo, Benjamin Heitmann, Betty Purwandari
  2. 2. Motivation: Web Science for predictions? • Could we have predicted Twitter? • Goal of a systems level view of the Web: Understanding the possible futures of the Web • Predictions could allow engineering and shaping a better Web
  3. 3. The science of predictions: Futures studies • The Web = Technology + Social Element • Predictions need to take both into account • Futures studies takes models and methods from a broad range of fields: economics, sociology, geography, history, engineering, mathematics, psychology, technology, tourism, physics, biology, astronomy, theology
  4. 4. Objectives of Futures Studies 1. Examine possible, probable, preferable and “wild card” futures 2. Holistic/systems view of prediction domain 3. Challenges hidden assumptions behind future predictions. 4. Provide blue print to connect extrapolated and normative research Source: Futures studies article on Wikipedia
  5. 5. “Images of the future” • Foundational method: • How a society views its future, affects the future direction of that society. • Expectations of the future, relate to past trends. • Analysing “future images” allows making better predictions.
  6. 6. Science Fiction • Snowcrash: Metaverse (Second Life) • Rainbows End: Augmented reality(sixth sense) • Down and Out in Magical Kingdom: Wuffie (ebay feedback)
  7. 7. Trends • Wired cover story: The Long Boom, a history of the future(1997) • 40 years of growth from 1980 to 2020 • tech waves: computers, telecom, biotech, nanotech, alt energy • optimistic re growth of all world economies • Superstruct game: prediction game based on Web 2.0 interaction
  8. 8. Methodologies • quantitative (extrapolation): • trend analysis (times series analysis) • qualitative: • Scenario planning • Backcasting • more on our wiki page
  9. 9. Summary: How to apply futures studies to Web Science • Studying the current Web is not enough, we need prediction methodologies to help us build a better web. • New method for Web Science: combine normative and extrapolating methods • emphasise plurality of relevant futures (you can learn more from multiple futures)
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×