Lessons learned from Futures Studies: Towards a method for Web Science
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Lessons learned from Futures Studies: Towards a method for Web Science

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Presentation about applying the methodology of Futures Studies to Web Science.

Presentation about applying the methodology of Futures Studies to Web Science.

Student Project at the Web Science Summer School 09

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    Lessons learned from Futures Studies: Towards a method for Web Science Lessons learned from Futures Studies: Towards a method for Web Science Presentation Transcript

    • Lessons learned from Futures Studies: towards a method for Web Science Dominic DiFranzo, Benjamin Heitmann, Betty Purwandari
    • Motivation: Web Science for predictions? • Could we have predicted Twitter? • Goal of a systems level view of the Web: Understanding the possible futures of the Web • Predictions could allow engineering and shaping a better Web
    • The science of predictions: Futures studies • The Web = Technology + Social Element • Predictions need to take both into account • Futures studies takes models and methods from a broad range of fields: economics, sociology, geography, history, engineering, mathematics, psychology, technology, tourism, physics, biology, astronomy, theology
    • Objectives of Futures Studies 1. Examine possible, probable, preferable and “wild card” futures 2. Holistic/systems view of prediction domain 3. Challenges hidden assumptions behind future predictions. 4. Provide blue print to connect extrapolated and normative research Source: Futures studies article on Wikipedia
    • “Images of the future” • Foundational method: • How a society views its future, affects the future direction of that society. • Expectations of the future, relate to past trends. • Analysing “future images” allows making better predictions.
    • Science Fiction • Snowcrash: Metaverse (Second Life) • Rainbows End: Augmented reality(sixth sense) • Down and Out in Magical Kingdom: Wuffie (ebay feedback)
    • Trends • Wired cover story: The Long Boom, a history of the future(1997) • 40 years of growth from 1980 to 2020 • tech waves: computers, telecom, biotech, nanotech, alt energy • optimistic re growth of all world economies • Superstruct game: prediction game based on Web 2.0 interaction
    • Methodologies • quantitative (extrapolation): • trend analysis (times series analysis) • qualitative: • Scenario planning • Backcasting • more on our wiki page
    • Summary: How to apply futures studies to Web Science • Studying the current Web is not enough, we need prediction methodologies to help us build a better web. • New method for Web Science: combine normative and extrapolating methods • emphasise plurality of relevant futures (you can learn more from multiple futures)