Phuong, H. M. Nguyen 2012 - Ca phe, Tin dung va Brazil

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Phuong, H. M. Nguyen 2012 - Ca phe, Tin dung va Brazil

  1. 1. *lphan tich cua chuy6n gia NguyOn Djnh Bich vd cdu chuyOn xudt khdu ca phe cia VN (77CIs6 49, ra ngay 9-1 2-2012) cho thdy nOng dan trdng ca phe vN hiOn dang tr6i qua nhung su viOc manong Oan trdng ca phe tai Brazil da tr6i qua c5ch day hon 20 nam. Thu xem xet kinh nghiOm c0a"ong khdng ld" ca phe nay thOng qua tim hi6u mQt cflng cu tdi chinh cua ho rhsrucuvEru HoANG M!,pHuoNG thdngcungcdptindungdQcquydnokhu sAn xudt, ngudn luc, titi sin... dugc v1lc cdng sang hd thdng song d6i - ci khu kidm tra vh sau d6 xdc dinh h4n mtlc ,hinh sdch n6ng nghiQp cua Brazil vgc c6ngvh tu. IcIuwc tdnhdn Brazil tir trdn phi hgp vdi mrlc dQ rrii ro tinI bdtdautrilquasgchuydnddikh6 ch6 chi dnidm20Yo tdng ngudn lltc cho dung. H4n mtlc tin dgng mh ngudir/tA" vlo nhung ndm 1970. Vho thdi nOng nghiQp trong nhitng ndm 1980, ddn ph6t hhnh CPR nhQn dtrgc dao dQng titdidm d6, ddy ld mQt m6 hinh chinh s6ch ndm 2005 da chidm tdi honz% (2). 30-70% sd lugng ho4c chi phi thu hoachn6ng nghiQp dga v2ro mQt ndn kinh td Sau nhi6u thQp ni6n c6 mfc l4m phdt trong tudng lai. H4n mfc niy cirn phua.rqc uao .h4t che, phuc vu cho chidn cao vh nhidu n6 luc kidm soiit, Brazil da thuQc timg Ioai ndng sin vh giai doan "e sin xudt (chudn bi, gieo h4t, trdng, thulugc thay thdhdng nhQp khdu, ngudn trg thuc thi mQt chudng trinh dn dinh kinhcdp phong phri vir dirng gi6 tdi ttiidu dd tdvdi t€n gqi I(d hoach real (dat theo t€n hoach, luu tru...).dAm bAo thuong m4i h6a. Nhrrng tinh ddng tidn mdi real) vio ndm 1994 trong Th6ng qua viQc ph6t hirnh CPR, nguditrang mdt khi ning tri nQ cria nh2t nudc thdi kjndm quydn cua tdng thdng Itamar sAn xudt n6ng nghiQp se b6n n6ng sincQn[ vdi sg khong dn dinh vd kinh td Franco. G6i kinh td nhy da gilip mQt chu trudc khi thu ho4ch (blng cdch thd chdpnhung nam 1980 t4i qudc gia nhy da ddn k! kinh td mdi bdt ddu vdi su tQp trung sin luong thu ho4ch trong taong lai),ddn JL,p dd chinh ra.n ti.r dgng nOng vho ndng nghiQp vh mang l4i kdt quA ndi dd nh4n trudc ngudn tdi chinh ho[cthon vho ddu nhung nim 1990. M6 hinh bQt trong khu vgc n)y. Tuy nhien, van cdc sAn phdm ddu vdo cdn thidt cho sAntindUngthdtb4icilngvdisgmdcrlakinh cdn thidu co chd chinh thrlc vh an todn xudt. Ngtrdi sin xudt khi ph6t h)nh CPR td nhanh ch6ng v2r phi kd ho4ch da d6n hon, kdt qua Ih cedula Produto Rural s6 cam kdt giao hhng dting sd lugng vho ddn khring ho6ng irong khu vgc n6ng (cPR) ra ddi - day td mot 1o4i trdi phidu mQt ngdy x6c dinh trong tudng lai vh t4i nghiQp. Hdu hdt n6ng dAn Brazil mdt dugc ngudi sin xudt (nong ddn vh hop dia didm xdc dinh, ngudi mua sE thanh khA ndng trfl ng tich luy qua nhi6u mira t5c xa) phdt hhnh dga vho sAn lugng thu todn trudc mot khoan ddn tudng duong vg, ddng thdi ddi diqn vdi khring hoing ho4chtrongtuonglai. vdi sd lugng hhng h6a. Ho4t dQng nhY thiduvd*n(vhtrgcdptindUng). Cho ddn ndm 2010, trong cdc ngudn kh6ng c6 gi khdc so vdi biin trrrdc hhng Ddu nhtrng nf,m 1990, do tin dung tiri trg cho ngudi sAn xudt nong nghiQp h6a (se c6 trong tuong lai). bi thu hgp, hqp ddng giao sau (forward thi tin dgng ngAn hhng chidm 30%, CPR tei chinh mqc dir rdt gidng vdi contract) dQu ninh ddu ti6n da xudt ngudn quy ri€ng cua hg chidm 30% vh CPR hhng thgc, nhung c6 mQt khdc biQt hiQn. Theo d6, nhitng hang kinh doanh CPRchidm 40%(3) co b6n Ih: thanh todn khdng ph6i ld giao da qudc gia c6 didu kiQn tidp cQn co chd hhng thgc, m4c dir v6n ddi h6i phAi dim phbng n[ira rtl ro (th6ng qua cdc hgp PHAT HANH TRAI PHIEU b6o bhng s6n phdm nong nghiQp tlldng aa"g f.y fra" (r)) vh ngudntin dsng qudc HANG HOA CPR tgy€u cdu cua CPR giao nhdn hdng thgc td .6 tro.r, b6t adu d6ng vai trb co bin I(hi ngudi sin xudt n6ng nghiQp dQ Di6u nhy cho ph6p ho4t dQng giao dich trong viQc cung cdp ngudn lgc cho ngudi trinh hd so ph6t hhnh CPR, phdn tich ph6t tridn vdi s1t tham gia cia nhtrng td s6r, *udt nhhm dim bio nguyen lieu thd tin dgng s6 dugc thgc hiQn (do Ngdn chric tbi chinh, tr6nh cho c6c td ch(tc n)y cho xudt khdu vh cho cdc nhir mdy sin hhng Brazil - noi chidm ldroing 60% kh6i s qr kt6 khdn k:hi phAi giu hing h6a vi xudtcuahg.DdylhcochdcobAnvhothdi tin dUng nOng nghiQp cria ci hQ thdng hay thrr tu6ng tuqng 10.000 gia stic ho{c 10 xe tAi d4u nhnh se xudt hiQn trudc cao gian dAu cua qud trinh chuydn ddi, tilhe .*^" ar"*l: Dl lie1 lich srl, khA ndng ffireffif@X s6 so-zotz, NGAY 16 122012
  2. 2. vAnr oE& su rrrnr p Idc vin phdng cria hg. Hdn nfra, luQt cirng li€n tgc trong sudt thoi gian thu ho4ch ddcdm c6c td chfc ndy nfm giu hgp ddng chdc chdn ring kh6ng xay ra sai s6t ntro.ho4c trdi phidu cldi h6i phAi giao hhng Nhung ydu td then chdt dim bio chothuc trong danh mgc ddu tu. sU thenh c6ng cria CPR tAi Brazil lh h€ thdng luOt lQ thi hdnh: nhirng quydt dinhvto Hirun cpn dugc thgc hi6n hiQu qu6, trong vdng mQt Chinh phri Brazl rdt ring hQ sg ph6t ddn hai nghy. Vi vQy, ngudi di vay c 6 rdt ittridn CPR vir viec phrit hinh CPR dugc cd hOi tt chdi hodc tranh cdi vd ciic quydtkdtho. pvdi cr{ctd chr?ckhdc, tao n€n mQt dlnh duoc thuchi6nthOng qua quyftinhmO hinh phdt tridn b6n vurrg cho ngirnh bdt buQc thi hhnh. MQt nOng d6n trong vudn ce ph€ gdn Rio den6ng nghiQp Brazil. MO hinh nhy li€n Janeiro (Brazil) Theo quy clin[ ngudi sd hffu CPR c6quan ddn m6t co quan nhh nudc (sd giao quydn gir{m srit tii sin thd chdp cld ph6tdich hing h6a), c6c ngdn hing thuong rang xay, 9 nhi m6y sin xudt cir phO hba hanh CPR, h9 kidm sodt quri trinh gieomai, trong d6 c6 mOt ngdn hbng ch(nh tan vh 200 cOng ty xudt khdu ch ph€ ( ). hAt, phdt tridn vg mira, thu hoqch vi lrrud6ng vai trd nhi t4o lQp thi trudng, c6c Trong khi d6, quy m0 trang trai ch ph€ 6 trt ctra ngudi di vay. Ching han nhu b6td chirc ddu tu tu nhdn vi sd giao dich ki. VN phdn ldn (hon B0%) tir 0,2-2ha (5). phdn phq tr6ch th! trudng Brazil cira COnghan trong mrdc. Ddy lh mQt mO hinh thri Ngudi san xudt nOng nghiQp nhdn tin ty BASF thuc hi€n viQc gi6m siit thOngv! cho nhimg nudc dang phi{t tridn kh6c dung ngdn hdng dga vdo thi sin thd chdp qua gi6m ttdc bdn hang. Gi6m ddc bdnmudn tdng khi ning cung cdp tfn dung ld mira vU trong trlong lai. Tai Brazil c6 hhng se ldm viQc vdi nhimg ngudi di vay,cho xudt ktrdu ci phe. Dd c6 thd thrlc mQt hQ thdng gnip dim b6o mdi licn he vh nhrlng ngudi di vay ndy c0ng lh ktr6chhi6n thhnh c6ng m0 hinh nhy, ddi h6i sg ch4tch6 girla ngudi chovayvi ngudiphdt hlng cria c6ng ty. Trong mQt sd tnrdngtham gia vh tin tudng l6n nhau hohn toirn henh CPR, trong d6 ho chia s6 kidn thric hgp sC c6 td chrlc dqi diQn dac biqt, nhdt lhctia c6c b€n c6 li€n quan, d{c biet la sU vd c6c giao d!ch, s6n lugng thu hoach ddi vdi nhirng virng xa xOi md d d6 nguditham gia cria nhd nudc... trung binh trong c6c virng, sin luo. ng tidm sd hiru CPR khOng dat trU sd vin phbng. Trong tdt ci ciic qudc gia trdng cd ph€, nang. HQ thdng nhy cho ph6p ngudi cho Nhttng thudng ld chi nhitng ngudi di vayc6 thd n6iBrazil li qudc gia mh nOng ddn vay c6 co hQi theo d6i tinh trqng cria sin ndo khOng d6ng tin cQy m6i cdn sU chir 1isrl dgng cOng cq quin tri riri ro dua vdo luong thu ho4ch trong tuong lai. Thi sin girim srit (chi phf gidm s6t tai Brazil th6ngthi trudng nhidu nhdt. Di6u ndy c6 thd thd chdp vh ddt dai tlugc dang i vdi tOn qua thuong luong vh c6 thd dao clOng tirdo: Thrl nhiit, nOng tr4i quy m0 vta vtr cria ngudi sd huu th6ng qua ddng i CPR 1-100 USD/ha tuy thuQc khu vgc trdng,ddn di6n ldn chidm phdn ldn thf phdn vi c6 sU gi6m sdt hodc cria td chrlc dQc lQp t tri v) khoing cdch vdi vdn phdng gi6ms6n xudt. Brazil c6 22|.OOO n6ng trai ho4c ngubi cho vay. Gi6m sdt ch4t ch6 bit sdt,loai sin phdm...).(trong d6 co 30Vo n6ng tr?i c6 quy m0 buQc thgc hiQn tai c6c giai doan s6n xudt. Kinh nghiOm cta Brazil cho thdy ndutr€n lOha) vh 70 ho. p t6c xi. Ngohi ra, C6c cuQc khio s6t trudc khi gieo h4t, c6c khOng c6 sgh6 tro cria nhir nudc thi viQcnudc nhy c6 khoing 1.500 doanh nghiQp cuQc vidng thnm hlng thdng vd kidm tra gidi thiQu lo4i cOng cg thi chinh nhu thd nhy se li didu khOng thd, rldc bi6t ld sr,t h6 trg thOng qua viQc thidt lQp nhirng quy NGHh" THUAT 6AM HANG" dinh ph6p lu4t 16 rhng. I Khi gia ca phe ti6p tuc sut giem, nong dan trong cd ph6 d Brazil d6 t6p trlc g5m h6ng han ch6 kh6i luong giao dich (theo C6ng ty mdi gidi va thuong mai Ftavour (1): Hop ddng ky hAn la hop ddng gita hai Coffee vir Cazarini). b€n - ngudi mua va ngudi bdn - dd mua hoac Tr6n san New.York, gi5 cd phd Arabica kV han di gdm 337o trong nAm nay, m6t bdn hang h6a cU thd veo mAt ngay ton7 phdn do s6n luong cd phe c0a grazit dat sen tuong ky tuc hon 50 tri6u bao (1 bao tuong lai vdi gia da th6a thuQn ngay hom nay. Co th6 n6i hop d6ng ky han ta hgp d6ng giao bing ookg), nhung xudt khdu trong ndm 2012 kh6ngvugt qua duoc muc 30 tri6u sau duqc tieu chudn hoa vd tuAn theo nhCng bao (ndm 201 1 qudc gia niy xu6t rndu 33,5 tri6u bao). Luong cd ph6 t6n kho trong quy dlnh hop ddng chat ch1 (do so giao dich c5c kho hdng duoc sdn ICE gi6m s6t ta 2,43 tr.i6u bao, muc cao nhdt kd tir thdng quy dlnh). 4-2010, theo HAng tin Bloomberg. (2): Eduardo L. Leeo de Sousa ve Fernando chinh phri Brazil h6i cudi thdng 4 dd thdng qua g6i tin dung tri gi6 900 trieu real L.Pimentel,2005:4 (3): Agrarian Markets Development lnstitute (tuong duong 477,5 trieu USD) cho nong ddn vay nhim tarn trtr ca pho trong vu tdi. (AMDI, Ukraine) (2011), New lnstruments of Theo Uy ban Ci ph6 qu6c gia (CNC), g6i tin dung tr6n ctugc l5y trr quV dU phdn8 cia Financing under Future Crops -The Brazilian linh vuc cd phe c6 tcn Funcafe. trthung g6i tin dung ndy v5n con it hon so vdi mfc Experience of a CPR System: Oppoftunities 1,05 ti USD cia n5m 2010. Khoan ti6nndy danh cho nguoi tr6ng ca ph6 vay voi tei and /ssues for Ukraine. sudt cuc thdp la 6,71%otndm, duoc CNC tridn khai t6i nong d6n qua su giem s6t c0a (4): chi,TrdnTh! Quynh (2007),r6ng kdt h1i B0 Tei chinh Brazil, 86 f6 hoach ve Ngen hdngTrung uong. Theo CNC, khoAn vay t6i thdo tri6n vgng phdt tri6n va chdt tuqng cd phe 2007. sudt thdp sE girip ngudi trdng cd ph6 tr5nh vi6c tung hdng qud nhi6u ra thi trubng (il: Ngen hengThd 9i0i,2004, theo phen vd gdy srlc 6p l6n gi5. tich so b0 cuaTdng cqcThdng k€ trong nghi)n un khOng cong bd ndm 2002. tuoitrecuoituan@tuoitre.com.vn @ II@

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