Phuong 2013 - Dua ca phe vao luat choi quoc te - Tuoi tre cuoi tuan

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  • 1. #gf;i, vAN el 5U KIEN DUA CA PHE VAO/ ,' ,' LUAT CHOI OUOC TE Khong chigao vdn dd vd mua, tAm trUvd ban nhung nong sAn ch[r dao nhu cd phe cria viet Nam d5, dang vd sC con ddi mat nhi6u Odt trdc n5u khOng biSt tan dung nh[rng cOng cq moi, thay ddi nh6n thuc cia cac b6n lien quan va thqrc thi kd hoach dai han cho ngdnh ca phe Viet Nam. ThS NGUYEN HOANG MY PHUONG dng lo4t thOng tin khOng tdt ddn dQp xudt hiQn trong nginh cd ph6 Viet Nam gdn ddy: Sd Giao dich ch(rng kho6n Ha NQi (HIIX) hriy ni€m ydt bdt buQc ddi vdi Cong ty CP TQp doin th6i Hda (chuy€n vd sin xudt vh xrdt khdu c) ph€), biy ngdn hhng ddn xidt ng COng ty TNHH Trudng Ngdn (chuyOn mua, chdbidn, xudt khdu ch ph6), th6ng tin nguy co vd ng hing lo4t trong ngirnh cd ph€... Thdm vho d6, theo th6ng tu O8l20I3 cria BQ COng thrrong, doanh nghiQp (DN) c6vdn ddututryctidp nudc ngoai (FDI) dd c6 gidy ph6p xudt khdu chi dugc trgc tidp mua htrng h6a cria thuong nhdn ViQt Nam c6 ddng (i kinh doanh hoac nhQp khdu, phdn phdi hing h6a d6 dd xudt khdu, chr? khOng dugc td chrlc m4ng ludi mua gom hdng h6a t4i Viet Nam dd xudt khdu. Nhuv4y, nhidu c6ng tyxudt khdu trong nudc d6 ph6 sin ho4c dang d(tng trudc nguy co ph6 sin, trong khi DN FDI khOng drtgc mua ci ph€ trgc tidp cria ndng ddn. Gi6 ci ph€ trong nudc cirng nhu gi6 cria hgp ddng ki'han 6 sd giao dich k!'hqn NYSE Liffe (giao dich cd ph€ Robusta - lo4i cd phO mh ViQt Nam 1) qudc gia xudt khdu d(rng ddu thdgidi) hiQn dang c6 xu hudng gi6m bdi nhidu nhdn td thi trudng nOi dia lin qudc td Kdt qui cta giii phAp t4m trrld6 thgc hiQn nim 2001 vi ndm 2010 mang nhidu 1i kidn tr6i chidu mir nghiOng v6 khOng hiQu quA, gdy tdn k6m ld chri ydu. Trudc tinh hinh nhy vh nhdt ld chi cbn khoing bdn th6ng nua Ih thu ho4ch ch ph€ ni0n vlg2012-2013, liQu lich srl cria nglnh ch phc ViQt Nam cdch ddy hon 10 ndm c6 ldp l4i: gid lkg ca pha khOng bdng gid lkg cdphdo? NONG DAN LOAY HOAY rUc0U MiNH Theo d6i di€n dhn cung cdp th6ng tin vd thi trudng cir ph€ dc dhng bdt gap nhitng binh luQn, ching h4n gdm hhng chd gi6l€n bdi vi "ching cdn gi dd mdt'i t4o khan hidm ngudn cung g6p phdn ting gi6... Tuy nhi€n, chi girl ch ph6 trong nhh mi khOng thgc hiQn cdc brlu bdi "biro vQl' thi ching kh6c gi 6m mQt md "bom nd chQm'i kh6ng bidt khi nho ph6t nd (khi gi6 bdn thdp hon chi phi ddu tu cho ch phe). Hdnh dQng niy dAt nOng ddn vdo tinh hudng riri ro hon lh toai b6 hoqc h4n chd rrii ro vd gi6 mir ho dang ddimat. 0 g6c dq thi trudng, hidm khi nho ngtrdi ta lirm chuyQn cgc k}lang phi ld "nhdt" gi6 tri cir phe cd dinh mot ch6 mir khOng cho lu0n chuydn dd sinh ldi. Nhung lieu k€nh cung cdp vdn chinh thric nhrr ngdn hhng c6 d6m cho vay vdi tii sAn thd chdp ld ddng "bom nd cham' ndy hay kh6ng? Dftng dudi g6c clQ rl6nh gra rui ro dd cho vay, cdu trd ldi c6 16 ld khOng. Thd n€n n0ng ddn dhnh cQy nhd viro ngudn vdn phi chinh thrlc, ching h4n tir c6c d?i b, nhan kj, gui. HQu qui th vd ng hing lo4t khidn bao gia dinh lam vio cinh khdn kh6, hdmg loqt vg lira dio lhm x6i mbn nidm tin trong kinh doanh vh trong cQng ddng. Dr4ng 16 ra ngudn gi6 tri d6 phii dugc xoay vdng vdn tld t6i tldu tu d6n chtro mira vg mdi, dd ndng cao chdt lugng cuQc sdng cria n6ng ddn, dd con em n6ng ddn dugc tdi trudng tidp thu kidn thr?c r6i sau niry tidp quin viQc trdng trgt cria gia dinh minh mOt c6ch bhi bin hon. VQy thi lhm thd ndo dd hat cir ph€ sau khi thu ho4ch mang l4i lgi ich bdn virng tru6rc hdt cho nOng ddn, sau th cho ndn kinh tdthayvi bdt lgc nhm im lim trong kho? NHI,NG GIAI PHAP KHAC Trudc mdt, c6 16 giii ph6p nhanh nhlm tr6nh tinh trang lo sg gi6 rot md b6n tdng bdn th6o cdng lirm tinh hinh th€m xdu di le Nha nudc d(mg ra dim b6o mrlc gi6 shn mi v5n t4o co hQi tim kidm lqi nhufln khi gie ting v6n dring "luQt choi" thf trudng chrl kh6ng dilng c6ch can thiQp thi trudng theo kidu binh dn gi5 hay tqm trfi - d6 l]r mua quydn chon b6n. Mua quydn chgn b6n (put option) nghia lir ngudi mua c6 quydn b6n hoac khOng bila md hqp d6ng lcy han vdo mQt ngiy trong tudng lai vdi gi6 cd dph viro hOm nay. Cg thd: gi6 su 1.600 USD/ tdn ch ph6 lh mrlc gid shn mh Nhd nudc dim bio. Vio nghy 24-6-2013, quydn chgn tr6n hop ddng k!'han thdng 9 dang giao dich t?i NYSE Liffe vdi gi6 thUc hien 1.600 USD/tdn, c6 phf quydn chgn lh 26 USD/tdn (tuong duong 546.936 d6ng/ tdn). Ndu Nhd ntrdc ddng ti mua quy6n chgn bdn cho tdt ci sin lugng cd phO sAn Nh0rrg drla con trong thi trudng cd ph6 Vi6t trtam b5t ddu tham gia thi trudng th6 gdi gdn 2o ndm r6i ma dutong nhuvSn chua truong thdnh, crl b6m mli"vity mq", khi gdp kh6 kh6n thi cdu ctru tam tril, h6 trg vdn hay gdm hang hi vong gi5 t6ng. Trong khi d6, chinh nh0ng d(a con chua trudng thlnh ndy lai ddu tu ngoii ngdnh d5n ddn thua 16, hoSc trong khi c0ng cu ttri chfnh dnng dd qudn tri rrii ro thi lai su dung nhu c6ng cu d6nh bac d6 den, ch5ng han trong con sdt cd ph6 qua mang ndm 2006 d6n ctOn ph5 s6n hirng loat trong thdi ki,mdi b5t ddu cho ph6p thir nghiOm hq p ddng kV han. viec ddnh bac dd den d6 van tdn tai ddn b6y gio. Itlld ln il+.5fllEll s 6 z t - z o t s, N G A y 3 o - 6 - 2 o 1 3
  • 2. xudt t?i Viet Nam, khoing 1,5 tri€u tdn, thi chi cdn chi ra 39 tri€u USD Ih nOng ddn c6 thd an tim ring c) phO sO dugc bdn khdng dudi mrtc 33.658 ddng/kg mi khdng cdn thgc hi6n tam trrl gi ci. MQt lUa chon khdc, tiiy theo khi ndng v) sd thich ctia m6i ngudi m) ho mong mudn mrlc gi6 dim b6o khSc nhau. Khi d6, n6ng ddn sE thanh toAn th€m m6t khoAn ch€nh lQch dd dat dugc mrlc gid d6m b6o mong mudn. Vi dg, m6t ngudi mong mudn duoc dAm b6o vdi mrlc gid 36.813 ddng/kg (tttong duong 1.750 USD/tdn), vdi mrlc gid ndy thi phi quy6n chgn lh 79 USD/tdn, do Nhd nudc h6 tro 26 USD/tdn theo m4t bing chung n€n chi cdn thanh toan th6m 53 USD/tdn, hoflc ndu mudn duoc dim b6o vdi mr?c gid 37.865 ddng/kg (tuong duong 1.800 usD/rdn) thi chi cdn thanh to6n thcm 81 usD/rdn. Theo Nh6m qudc td quin tri rrii ro hdng h6a t4i c6c nudc dang phdt tridn ITF-CRM, giii ph6p thich hop nhdt cho nOng ddn Id mua quydn chon b6n. Bdi ddi vdi ciic td chfc cung cdp c6ng cq ph6i sinh, hqn chd ldn nhdt khi kinh doanh vdi nOng ddn tai c5c nudc dang ph6t tridn li nii ro tin dung khi khdng drlp irng dugc cdc y€u cdu i quy nghiGm ngdt ndu giao dich hop ddng k!.h4n. Tuy nhi6n, quydn chon b6n vdi khoin thanh todn phi quydn chon tnrdc di loai b6 rrii ro tfn dUng niy. Vdi quydn chgn b6n trong mQt thi trudng dang gi6m gid, n6ng ddn c6 thd vAn dim b6o dugc mr?c gi6 shn bii ddp dugc chi phi s6n xudt vd c6 lai. Ndu sau khi mua quy6n chon b6n mir gid tdng, don gi6n ld dd quydn chgn dy hdt han mh khdng thgc hiQn, vd cd ph€ c6 thd dem b6n vdi mfc gid cao hon theo thi trudng hic d6. Nghia ld mua quy6n chon b6n c6 thd gidi han thua 15 mi v6n c6 co hQi khi gi6 ting trd lai. Vdn d6 lh nhung hQ nOng ddn sAn xudt quy mO nh6 se kh6 tham gia truc tidp thi trudng ky han - it nhdt ld kt6ng tham gia ddn khi hq tich lhy duoc kidn thirc, ngu6n lgc vh nang iuc cdn thidt. Ed gi6i quyet vdn dd nhy, Brazil da su dgng quydn chon b6n nhung lh do Chinh phri Brazil dr?ng ra b6n girip n6ng ddn vh ddy Ih mQt m0 hinh ddViet Nam hoc h6i sau nhy. Trong thdi didm "ddu sOi lt?a b6ng" hiQn nay, c6ch tdt nhdt lh Nhh ntrdc drlrng ra thay mat n6ng ddn tdng hop nhu cdu phdng ngita rui ro, thuc hi€n c6c giao dich tr6n sd giao dich... sau d6 thanh lli hgp ddng t4i thdi didm thich hgp. CAn Itru ti d6i khi phi quydn chsn s6 trd n€n ddt, bdi phi b6o hidm thudng cao nhdt k*ri chring cdn thidt nhdt. Nhung mot mat khi phdt di th6ng rin vi6t Nam mua quydn chgn bdn cho to2rn bQ sAn lrrgng ci ph6 cria minh, phi quydn chon sC tang cao, nhung mAt khec ph6t di tin hi6u Vi6t Nam dang hoc h6i vh bdt ddu bidt choi ludt choi chung cria thdgidi. IGri n6ng ddn Vi6t Nam dd tlr mua hodc Chinh phri h5 trd mua quydn chgn b6n cho sAn luong ch ph€ thi di6u nhy mang lai sU dim bio hon cho ch ph€ luu kho. Vh c6 thd ngin hhng se can nhdc lai quydt dinh cho vay dga tr6n cd ph€ luu kho d6 dtrgc "bAo vQ" nhy so vdi vi6c cho vay dga tr€n ch ph€ khdng c6 sg phdng ngira rrii ro nho tnrdc ddy. C6 thd mo rQng c6ch thrlc nhymOt cdch bdi bin hon |_ vAN oE & su rcEru l_lmx nhu Guatemala da thUc hi6n. Ndm 1994, Li0n hiQp NOng ddn trdng c) phO qudc gia (National Coffee Growers' Federation - Anacaf6) da gidi thi6u h€ thdng nhlm ndng cao khi ndng tidp cdn tin dgng ngdn hdng thuong m4i vh nhrrng hO n6ng ddn thudng dga vho chuong trinh nhy dd vay ngdn hdng. Theo d6, srr dUng cdc cOng cg qu6n tri rui ro th didu ki6n ti€n quydt dd tham gia chuong trinh tfn dqng. M vdy rrii ro cho ngdn hdng giim ddng kd, cho ph6p hg cung cdp tin dung cho n6ng ddn tr6ng ch ph€ vdi lai sudt thdp hon (theo u6c tinh cria Anacaf6, tidt ki6m duoc tidn l6i cho n6ng d0n hon 10% gid tri khoin vay - khoing 2 triQu USD m5i nAm) (Rutten vd Yousset 2007). NhuvQy, hai mdt cria mdtvdn d6: quin tri rrii ro gi6 vir cung cdp tfn dUng c6 mdi quan hQ khdng khit. PHIA SAU NHI,NG GIAI PHAP TAM THOI Nhtmg sdu xa md n6i, cung nhu nhi6u gi6i ph6p kh6c, mua quy6n chon bdn cho todn bQ 1,5 tri€u tdn ch ph€ Vi6t Nam ndu dugc chon cirng chi mang tinh t(rc thdi nhlm ddi ph6 vdi tinh hudng khdn cdp hiQn nay. Didu quan trong hon hdt th thay ddi nhQn thrlc cria ciic b6n li6n quan vd thgc thi kd hoach dhi hqn cho ngdnh cd ph€Vi6tNam. Nhung n6i di cung ph6i n6i lai, hdu nhrr cdch xtl l1i tir trudc ddn nay cfia Nh) nudc d6u mang tinh sgvg mh chua thdy dua ra kdhoach mang tdm chidn ltroc dhi h4n: khi gid giim thi tam trt, khi doanh nghiOp k€u kh6 thi h6 trg, ching han mdi ddy B0 NN&PTNT dd nghi Chfnh phri gidn no cho vay tin dqng xudt khdu ddi v6i mit hdng d ph€. Thi trudng ludn ddn ldi vd chinh thi tnrdng dd l4i mQt bai hgc thidt ydu, dring vdi moi n6n kinh td, rhng 1u6n cdn tao vdn h6a phdng ngrra rii ro cho todn xa hQi dd m6i ngrrdi tU nhdn thtlc dugc rti ro trong hoat ddng kinh doanh cia m)nh mh tu gi6c tim tbi c6ch thfc tu b6o vQ. Vd dd girip hq, Nhd nudc cdn tao khung thd chd phir ho.p. Ong trirm thi chinh George Soros tirng nhQn x6t: "Trong khi th! traong tdi chinh mang ttnh chdt todn cdu (global), nhtmg nhd cdm quydn uAn cbn mang tinh chdt qudc gia (national) [...] cho nAn nhd cdm quydn cung phtii uuon ra qudc td". I Nguoi tr6ng cd phd mot ndng hai suong co dugc lqi ich gi tilchuyen mua, tam tr0? tuoitrecuottuan@tuoitre.com.vn mmrem rem