Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture

1 Presented at the Conference on Climate Change organized by the Kalikasan-People’s Network for the Environment on April 20-21, 2009 at the Blai Kalinaw. 2 Klima/Manila Observatory Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture 1 by: Lourdes V. Tibig 2

Climate change science
- IPCC AR4
- Fingerprints: Philippine Scene
Impacts
- Current climate variability
- El Niño/La Niña events
- Tropical cyclone passage/occurences
- Climate risks
Outline

Ghg concentrations are increasing rapidly and are now much higher than they have been for at least 420,000 years
We live in unusual times!

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)
We are committed to a warming of 0.2°C/decade
Widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal

How have the earth’s surface temperature changed? Variations of Earth’s surface temperature for the past 140 years 1900 2000 2100 PROJECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGE Warming in the last 50 years is UNUSUAL in the last 1300 years

11 of the last twelve years: warmest years since 1850
More frequent hot days, hot nights, and heat waves but less frequent cold days, cold nights and frost over the last 50 years
More intense and longer droughts since the 1970s
More frequent, persistent and intense El Niño since the mid-1970s
Signals of climate change….

We have pumped enough greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to warm the planet for many decades to come,
The Earth’s natural system will be affected for decades even if ghg emissions are reduced NOW.
Is climate change inevitable?

There are projected increases of from 1.1°C to 6.4°C during the 21st century.
For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected.
Are there projections for further warming?

What is happening in the Philippines?

An increase of 0.6104°C from 1951-2006 Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

An increase of 0.3472°C from 1951-2006 Observed Mean Annual Maximum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

An increase of 0.8904°C from 1951-2006, increase in minimum temperatures almost 3 times increase in maximum temperatures Observed Mean Annual Minimum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

Tracks of tropical cyclones that entered the PAR during the period 1948-2005 1128 tropical cyclones

Annual frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing the Philippines (1948-2006) Total = 1148, Mean = 19 to 20 , Std. Dev. = 4, Max = 32 , Min = 11 528 T.C. or 46% crossed /land fall in the Country Average crossing = 9 T.C.

March April Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005) January February

August July May June Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)

September October November December

Percentage of Annual Rainfall associated with the passage of Tropical Cyclones (1951-2005) NCR WESTERN LUZON BICOL VISAYAS MINDANAO EASTERN LUZON

FREQUENCY OF FLOODS IN CITIES AND MUNICIPALITIES THE STUDY ON THE NATIONWIDE FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT AND THE FLOOD MITIGATION PLAN FOR THE SELECTED AREAS IN THE REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES : JICA, 2004 D O S T - P A G A S A

Trends of extreme events

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and rainfall Results:
Majority of stations show an increase in hot days and warm nights
HOT DAYS WARM NIGHTS

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and rainfall Results:
There are few significant decreases in hot days at coastal stations (Aparri, Virac, Puerto Princesa), but this same behavior is also seen in coastal stations of northern and western Australia (Griffiths, et.al, 2005)

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and rainfall Results :
Decreases in cold nights and cool days are significant and almost all throughout the country. Again, this is spatially coherent across the broad Asia-Pacific region ( Manton, et. al., 2001, Griffiths, et.al., 2005
COOL DAYS COLD NIGHTS

Rainfall Indices
Most results are not significant. Generally, increases in total rainfall and number of raindays, again in the Visayas.
RAIN DAYS TOTAL RAINFALL

R ainfall Indices
Increases in intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events especially in the Visayas
INTENSITY FREQUENCY

Impacts

Impacts of changes in climate extremes:
Not adequately known:
On pest infestations
On ability of livestock to adapt to physiological stresses
on aggregated market sector effects (changes in GDP)
Yield losses can be severe if temp > critical limits for even shorter periods;
Known impacts:
Temperature increases beyond a threshold can affect key development stages of some crops;
Spikelet sterility in rice
Loss of pollen viability in maize
Tubers’ development in potatoes
Increased flood, landslide, mudslide events (and damages);
Some ecosystems show effects quickly (ex. Coral bleaching can occur in a single exceptionally warm season); and
Changes in the frequency of extreme events may disrupt some ecosystems as a result of differences in response times of species.

E xamples of climate variability and extreme climate events and their impacts:
Risks to human life, risk of infectious disease epidemics
Coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and infrastructure
damage to coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves
Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities, and mean and peak precipitation intensities
flood, landslide and avalanche damage
Soil erosion
flood runoff could increase recharge of some flood plain aquifers
Pressure on government and private flood insurance systems and
disaster relief
More intense precipitation events
cold-related human morbidity and mortality
risk of damage to a number of crops
range and activity of some pests and disease vectors
heating energy demand
Higher minimum temperatures, and fewer cold days, frost days, and cold waves over nearly all land areas
incidence of deaths and serious illness in older people and urban poor
Heat stress in livestock and wildlife
risk of damage to a number of crops
electric cooling demand
energy supply reliability
Higher maximum temperatures, more hot days and heat waves over nearly all land areas Projected impacts Projected changes

Documentation (done in 2000) of impacts of extreme climate events (ECEs) showed a very clear link between ECEs and adverse impacts on agriculture, water and coastal resources, health and environment, including disaster management
How vulnerable are we?

Preliminary vulnerability and adaptation (V & A) assessments in 5 most important sectors (agriculture, water and coastal resources, human health and forestry already indicated high vulnerability to adverse impacts of climate change
Lower capacity to adapt due to lack of financial, institutional and technological resources
How vulnerable are we?

Let’s take a look at natural disasters Major natural disasters around the world, 1963-1992

Major natural disasters in the Philippines

Some statistics on most disastrous tropical cyclones P 0.8 B 3. Kadiang 1993 P 10.8 B 2. Rosing 1995 P 10.8 B 1. Ruping 1990 Damages Tropical Cyclone

On agriculture and food supply
Too much or too little rains?
One tonne of imported rice ~ 1000 tonnes of H 2 O
high temperatures
spikelet fertility
pest and diseases
Most fundamental of human need (food) is at
great risk

Potential health impacts of climate and its change

What would climate change mean in the long term?
Freshwater availability in Southeast Asia to decrease along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect millions by 2050;
Coastal areas especially heavily-populated megadeltas will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea, and in some flooding from the rivers;

Risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries (decrease in crop yields);
Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrheal disease (primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise due to projected changes in water cycles;

Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance/toxicity of cholera; and
Climate change is expected to impinge on the sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia as it compounds pressures on natural resources and the environment.

To prevent a global temperature rise above 2 o C, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has to be stabilised in the range 450 or 550 ppm
Current CO 2 concentration is 380 ppm and has risen by around 100 ppm since the 1800s.
Tipping point?

“ Only the minimum emissions scenarios - a deep green future-can prevent global temperatures from rising more than 2 o C relative to before the start of our coal and oil age.” Tyndall Technical Report, 2006

E-mail address: lvtibig@yahoo.com Thank you

Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture

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Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture — Presentation Transcript