Dan – Take a look at the agenda to get a handle on when and how you want to raise key issues in your two morning presentations. Labs and Fundraising for all things will be covered by me. Education overview will be covered by Pat. You need to decide what you really want to dwell on with the board to get their input on. I would suggest going through the “reporting/highlights” stuff fast first, then saying: “Okay, now I want to slow down and seek your ideas…”
Lecture 1: Introduction Prof. Dan Sperling September 27, 2012 Fall Quarter 2012Energy and Environmental Aspects of Transportation Civil and Environmental Engineering (ECI) 163 Environmental Science and Policy (ESP) 163
Big Themes1. Key overarching issues • Are we running out of oil? • Are oil companies evil and conspiring to keep oil prices high? • Who really killed the electric car and is blocking the switch to alternative fuels? • Is climate change real and what should we do? • Is air pollution a severe problem? • Is technology the solution to energy, air pollution, and climate problems? • Do benefits of cars outweigh costs?1. Key policy design issues • If can’t measure it, you can’t manage it (methodological and data issues) • Role of causality—esp for AQ and climate change • Who should be made responsible for solving a problem—keeping in mind jurisdictional challenges (who’s in charge and can do something about it) • Market based approaches vs regulatory and voluntary instruments1. Systems challenges: how to coordinate responses to different parts of a system (eg, switching to electric cars)? Before automakers sell EVs, they need to be sure that electricity companies will build recharging stations, while electricity companies want EVs to be sold in large numbers before they invest in electricity charging, and policymakers need to create incentives for both car and energy companies to make their risky investments. All these policies and investments must happen concurrently. A similar story is true for other fuels and vehicles.
Outline• Introduction• Motivation for course on transportation and environment• Overview of course topics I. Problems and Challenges – Air quality – Energy – Climate change II. Technologies, Strategies, and Solutions – Vehicles – Fuels – Mobility – Freight
Introduction• Who are we? – Instructor: Prof. Dan Sperling Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering Professor, Environmental Science and Policy Director, Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS-Davis) Board member, California Air Resources Board – Teaching assistants: Sydney Vergis , Kevin Fang, Brigitte Driller Transportation gGraduate students, UC-Davis
Introduction• Logistics – Email: • Prof. Sperling: firstname.lastname@example.org • Sydney Vergis email@example.com • Brigitte Driller firstname.lastname@example.org • Kevin Fang email@example.com – Office hours: • Prof. Sperling: T 3:15-5:30, By appt. 2027 Academic Surge • Sydney Vergis: Tues 9-11AM 2143 Wickson • Brigitte Driller: Wed 10:30-12:30 2143 Wickson • Kevin Fang Thur 12:10-1:30 2143 Wickson
Introduction• Course details – Grading components: • 3 papers (13% each): 3 pages each, on assigned topics • 4 quizzes (8% each) • Final exam (29%): Dec 10 – Course readings • See course schedule for readings for each class • Readings are posted at course website – Assignments • Due midnight of posted due date • To be uploaded at course website • Late assignments assessed 5% penalty per day late.
Course MotivationPROBLEMS• Air Quality – Local air quality – Health impacts of pollution• Energy – Oil prices, costs of travel and goods transport – Oil imports, security, geopolitics• Climate Change – Environmental, economic impacts – Currently active policy area (e.g. California’s AB 32, low carbon fuel standard)SOLUTIONS: technology, behavior, and policy• Vehicles• Fuels• Mobility• Freight
This Course is Relatively Simple! 9 September 25, 2008
Vehicle Ownership is Soaring—Resulting in Increased Fuel Use, Pollution, and GHG Emissions 3.0 Number of Motor Vehicles (Billions) 2.5 2.0 Cycles & Scooters 1.5 Trucks & Buses Cars 1.0 0.5 0.0 60 70 80 0 30 50 90 10 20 0 19 19 19 20 19 19 20 20 20 Source: Sperling and Gordon, 2009
Transportation Plays Large Role in Climate Change and Oil Security (and AQ) Transportation accounts for ¼ of CO2California 38% Transportation accounts emissions in world for 2/3 of oil used in US and ½ in world U.S. 28%Worldwide 23% Transportation accounts for ~1/2 of urban air E.U. 21% pollution 0% Direct share* transport15% emissions 25% 5% 10% CO2 20% 30% 35% 40% EIA, 2006
Air Quality• Our automobile emissions (e.g., CO, HC, NOx, Pb) are far lower than in 1970.• Yet local air quality problems still persist….
Petroleum Dependence• Every U.S. President since the 1970s has sought to reduce our dependence on foreign oil.• Yet we are increasingly dependent on imports…. 20,000 60% Petroleum use in the U.S. (thousand barrels/day) imported 15,000 Domestic production 10,000 30% imported 5,000 Imported petroleum 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1999 2004 Year
The Climate Change Challenge Some scientists now say 350 ppm is necessary to avoid catastrophic climate 750 ppm change 550)l a bo g2 l ( 450 350 ppmo s no nolli B To stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration, need to decarbonize the energy system at several times the historical rate of 0.3%/y. Even if t i electric sector is completely decarbonized by 2100, stabilization at 550 (450) ppm => 3 (5) fold reduction in carbon emissions from direct fuel use vs. IS92a.
Vehicle Efficiency• Efficiency of automobiles improves every year.• Yet our fuel economy is just beginning to improve…. 40 45 Efficiency 42 35 Fuel economy (mpg) Vehicle efficiency 39 (ton-mpg) 30 36 Fuel Economy 25 33 20 30 15 27 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Model year
Alternative Fuels • Transportation is 96% fueled by petroleum. • Yet there are many available alternative fuel technologies with lower environmental impacts…GM’s Volt (Plug-in Hybrid) Nissan Leaf (Battery Electric) Volkswagen Jetta (Diesel) Honda FCX Clarity (hydrogen fuel cell)
Growth in Travel, Mobility• We have experienced exponential growth in travel.• Can we continue to do so at the same rate? Passenger travel by mode (per day per capita, France) 102 100,000 All modes 101 Buses + cars 10,000 Meter/day-cap Rail Km/day-cap 100 1,000 2-Wheelers Horses 10-1 TGV 100 Air Railways Waterways 10-2 10 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Source: Grubler, IIASA, 2002
Transportation and Land Use• SOV Cars dominate in US passenger transport system (and increasingly elsewhere)• Government policies support highways and suburban development Pisarski, 2007
Major Policy TrendsU.S. policy precedents for transportation and the environment: • California vehicle emission standardsAir • Clean Air Acts (automobile emission regulations)Quality • Fuel requirements (lead, sulfur, oxygenates) • Diesel truck emission standards • Calif. zero-emission vehicle mandateEnergy • Energy Policy Conservation Act (automobile fuel economy) • Energy Tax Act (ethanol subsidy), biofuel mandates • California vehicleClimate CO2 standardChange • Low carbon fuel standards • California land use/VMT 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Externalities• What are they? – Impacts (costs or benefits) not directly involved in an economic decision• Why do we care? – Sometimes the free market system does not fully account for all economic costs and benefits to society – This can result in socially sub-optimal results• Transportation examples: air pollution, petroleum dependence, congestion, climate change Money Consumer Firm Goods Consumption Production External impacts on others not involved in economic decision
Dealing with Externalities• For example, if a factory is manufacturing a product that pollutes a river… – Direct economic approach – Downstream residents could get together, pay polluter to stop polluting – Command and control approach – Government could ban (or restrict) river pollution, enforce with heavily armed river boat patrols (or with environmental protection agencies) – “Pigouvian” tax – Government could tax polluters in accordance with the social costs they generate – Marketable permits – Government could issue “pollution permits,” allow the polluters to trade them to achieve pollution reduction at lowest cost – “Socialist” approach – If pollution is industrial, the industry could be nationalized, run in a socially profitable way
Evolution of Transportation Monoculture 1859 First U.S. oil well discoveredFirst internal combustion engine car built 1885 by Karl Benz 1908 Model T (with ICE) debuts U.S. transit ridership reaches highest 1926 peacetime levels 1930 Car ownership reaches 200 for every 1000 AmericansSuburban building boom begins following 1947 World War II 1956 U.S. Interstate Highway System launched Arab oil embargo constricts supply 1973 1979 Iran-Iraq war doubles oil prices First hybrid-electric cars sold in U.S. 2000 2003 Car ownership reaches 1.15 vehicles per American driver Motor vehicle population worldwide 2005 exceeds 1 billion 24 2008 Crude hits $140 a barrel September 25, 2008
Conclusions• Trends point toward more travel and more energy-intensive modes of travel• These transportation trends have consequences – Air quality impacts – Petroleum dependence – Climate change impacts• These externalities are problems, but solvable problems that can be addressed with technology and policy solutions These trends – and the strategies to reverse them – are why courses like this are so important!