IEA PV Road Map
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Insigthful Guidelines for world-wide adoption of Solar PV

Insigthful Guidelines for world-wide adoption of Solar PV

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IEA PV Road Map IEA PV Road Map Document Transcript

  • Technology RoadmapSolar photovoltaic energy2035 204020452050
  • DisclaimerThis report is the result of a collaborative effortbetween the International Energy Agency (IEA),its member countries and various consultantsand experts worldwide. Users of this report shallmake their own independent business decisionsat their own risk and, in particular, without unduereliance on this report. Nothing in this reportshall constitute professional advice, and norepresentation or warranty, express or implied, ismade in respect of the completeness or accuracyof the contents of this report. The IEA acceptsno liability whatsoever for any direct or indirectdamages resulting from any use of this report or itscontents. A wide range of experts reviewed drafts,however, the views expressed do not necessarilyrepresent the views or policy of the IEA or itsindividual member countries.The International Energy AgencyThe International Energy Agency (IEA),an autonomous agency, was established inNovember 1974. Its mandate is two-fold:to promote energy security amongst its membercountries through collective response to physicaldisruptions in oil supply and to advise membercountries on sound energy policy.The IEA carries out a comprehensive programmeof energy co-operation among 28 advancedeconomies, each of which is obliged to hold oilstocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports.The Agency aims to:• Secure member countries’ access to reliableand ample supplies of all forms of energy;in particular, through maintaining effectiveemergency response capabilities in case of oilsupply disruptions.• Promote sustainable energy policies thatspur economic growth and environmentalprotection in a global context – particularly interms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissionsthat contribute to climate change.• Improve transparency of international marketsthrough collection and analysis of energy data.• Support global collaboration on energytechnology to secure future energy suppliesand mitigate their environmental impact,including through improved energy efficiencyand development and deployment of low-carbon technologies.• Find solutions to global energy challengesthrough engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, internationalorganisations and other stakeholders.IEA member countries are: Australia, Austria,Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark,Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland,Italy, Japan, Korea (Republic of), Luxembourg,the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland,Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden,Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and theUnited States. The European Commission alsoparticipates in the work of the IEA.
  • 1ForewordForewordCurrent trends in energy supply and useare patently unsustainable – economically,environmentally and socially. Without decisiveaction, energy-related emissions of CO2will morethan double by 2050 and increased oil demand willheighten concerns over the security of supplies.We can and must change our current path, butthis will take an energy revolution and low-carbonenergy technologies will have a crucial role toplay. Energy efficiency, many types of renewableenergy, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclearpower and new transport technologies will allrequire widespread deployment if we are to reachour greenhouse gas emission goals. Every majorcountry and sector of the economy must beinvolved. The task is also urgent if we are to makesure that investment decisions taken now do notsaddle us with sub-optimal technologies in thelong term.There is a growing awareness of the urgent needto turn political statements and analytical workinto concrete action. To spark this movement,at the request of the G8, the IEA is developing aseries of roadmaps for some of the most importanttechnologies. These roadmaps provide solidanalytical footing that enables the internationalcommunity to move forward on specifictechnologies. Each roadmap develops a growthpath for a particular technology from today to2050, and identifies technology, financing, policyand public engagement milestones that need to beachieved to realise the technology’s full potential.Roadmaps also include special focus on technologydevelopment and diffusion to emergingeconomies.International collaboration will becritical to achieve these goals.While its use is small today, solar photovoltaic(PV) power has a particularly promising future.Global PV capacity has been increasing at anaverage annual growth rate of more than 40%since 2000 and it has significant potential forlong-term growth over the next decades. Thisroadmap envisions that by 2050, PV will provide11% of global electricity production (4 500 TWhper year), corresponding to 3 000 gigawattsof cumulative installed PV capacity. In additionto contributing to significant greenhouse gasemission reductions, this level of PV will deliversubstantial benefits in terms of the security ofenergy supply and socio-economic development.Achieving this target will require a strong andbalanced policy effort in the next decade to allowfor optimal technology progress, cost reductionand ramp-up of industrial manufacturing. Thisroadmap also identifies technology goals andmilestones that must be undertaken by differentstakeholders to enable the most cost-efficientexpansion of PV. As the recommendations of theroadmaps are implemented, and as technologyand policy frameworks evolve, the potential fordifferent technologies may increase. In response,the IEA will continue to update its analysis of futurepotentials, and welcomes stakeholder input as theroadmaps are taken forward.Nobuo TanakaExecutive Director, IEA
  • 2 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyAcknowledgementsThis publication was prepared by the IEA’sRenewable Energy Division. It was developedunder the lead of Paolo Frankl, Head of the IEARenewable Energy Division (RED) and StefanNowak, Chair of the IEA Implementing AgreementPhotovoltaic Power Systems (PVPS) ExecutiveCommittee. Other co-authors were MarcelGutschner, Stephan Gnos (NET Nowak Energie &Technologie Ltd) and Tobias Rinke (IEA/RED). Manyother IEA colleagues have provided importantcontributions, in particular Tom Kerr, Steven Lee,David Elzinga, Uwe Remme, Emi Mizuno, CedricPhilibert, Hugo Chandler and Zuzana Dobrotkova.Tom Kerr also significantly contributed to the finalediting of the document. Energetics, Inc. providededitorial comments.This work was guided by the IEA Committee onEnergy Research and Technology. Its membersprovided important review and comments thathelped to improve the document. This roadmapwould not be effective without all of thecomments and support received from the industry,government and non-government experts and themembers of the PVPS Implementing Agreement,who attended the meetings, reviewed andcommented on the drafts, and provided overallguidance and support for the roadmap. Theauthors wish to thank all of those who participatedin the meetings and commented on the drafts.The resulting roadmap is the IEA’s interpretationof the workshops, with additional informationincorporated to provide a more complete picture,and does not necessarily fully represent theviews of the workshop participants. A full list ofworkshop participants and reviewers is included inAppendix III.For more information on this document, contact:Paolo Frankl, IEA SecretariatTel. +33 1 4057 6591Email: paolo.frankl@iea.org
  • 3Key findingsKey findings• Solar PV power is a commercially available andreliable technology with a significant potentialfor long-term growth in nearly all worldregions. This roadmap estimates that by 2050,PV will provide around 11% of global electricityproduction and avoid 2.3 gigatonnes (Gt) ofCO2emissions per year.• Achieving this roadmap’s vision will requirean effective, long-term and balanced policyeffort in the next decade to allow for optimaltechnology progress, cost reduction andramp-up of industrial manufacturing formass deployment. Governments will needto provide long-term targets and supportingpolicies to build confidence for investments inmanufacturing capacity and deployment of PVsystems.• PV will achieve grid parity – i.e. competitivenesswith electricity grid retail prices – by 2020in many regions. As grid parity is achieved,the policy framework should evolve towardsfostering self-sustained markets, with theprogressive phase-out of economic incentives,but maintaining grid access guarantees andsustained R&D support.• As PV matures into a mainstream technology,grid integration and management and energystorage become key issues. The PV industry,grid operators and utilities will need to developnew technologies and strategies to integratelarge amounts of PV into flexible, efficient andsmart grids.• Governments and industry must increase R&Defforts to reduce costs and ensure PV readinessfor rapid deployment, while also supportinglonger-term technology innovations.• There is a need to expand internationalcollaboration in PV research, development,capacity building and financing to acceleratelearning and avoid duplicating efforts.• Emerging major economies are alreadyinvesting substantially in PV research,development and deployment; however, moreneeds to be done to foster rural electrificationand capacity building. Multilateral and bilateralaid organisations should expand their efforts toexpress the value of PV energy in low-carboneconomic development.Key actions in the next ten years• Provide long-term targets and supportingpolicies to build confidence for investments inmanufacturing capacity and deployment of PVsystems.• Implement effective and cost-efficient PVincentive schemes that are transitional anddecrease over time so as to foster innovationand technological improvement.• Develop and implement appropriate financingschemes, in particular for rural electrificationand other applications in developing countries.• Increase R&D efforts to reduce costs and ensurePV readiness for rapid deployment, while alsosupporting longer-term innovations.
  • 4 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyKey findings 3Introduction 5The rationale for PV 5The purpose of the roadmap 6PV status today 7Technology performance and cost 7Market trends 9Research and development 11Vision for PV deployment and CO2abatement potential 13Electricity generation and cumulative installed capacity 13Applications and market end-use sectors 17Cost reduction goals 18PV market deployment and competitiveness levels 19CO2emissions reduction 21Technology development: Strategic goals and milestones 22Technology trends 22Specific technology goals and R&D issues 23Policy frameworks: Roadmap actions and milestones 27Regulatory framework and support incentives 27Market facilitation and transformation 29Technology development and RD&D 30International collaboration 32Conclusion: Actions for stakeholders and next steps 35Appendix I. References and roadmaps consulted 37Appendix II. List of relevant websites 39Appendix III. List of workshop participants and reviewers 40Appendix IV. Abbreviations, acronyms and units 42Table of Contents
  • 5IntroductionIntroductionThere is a pressing need to accelerate thedevelopment of advanced clean energytechnologies in order to address the globalchallenges of energy security, climate changeand sustainable development. This challenge wasacknowledged by the Ministers from G8 countries,China, India and South Korea, in their meeting inJune 2008 in Aomori, Japan where they declaredthe wish to have IEA prepare roadmaps to advanceinnovative energy technology.“We will establish an international initiativewith the support of the IEA to develop roadmapsfor innovative technologies and co-operate uponexisting and new partnerships, including CCS andadvanced energy technologies. Reaffirming ourHeiligendamm commitment to urgently develop,deploy and foster clean energy technologies, werecognise and encourage a wide range of policyinstruments such as transparent regulatoryframeworks, economic and fiscal incentives,and public/private partnerships to foster privatesector investments in new technologies….”To achieve this ambitious goal, the IEA hasundertaken an effort to develop a series of globaltechnology roadmaps covering 19 technologies.These technologies are divided among demandside and supply side technologies. Our overallaim is to advance global development anduptake of key technologies to reach a 50% CO2emission reduction by 2050 by having the IEAleading the development of energy technologyroadmaps under international guidance and inclose consultation with industry. The roadmapswill enable governments, industry and financialpartners to identify steps needed and implementmeasures to accelerate required technologydevelopment and uptake.This process starts with providing a clear definitionand elements needed for each roadmap. TheIEA has defined its global technology roadmapaccordingly:“… a dynamic set of technical, policy,legal, financial, market and organisationalrequirements identified by the stakeholdersinvolved in its development. The effort shalllead to improved and enhanced sharing andcollaboration of all related technology-specificRDD&D information among participants. Thegoal is to accelerate the overall RDD&D processin order to deliver an earlier uptake of the specifictechnology into the marketplace.”Each roadmap identifies major barriers,opportunities, and policy measures for policy makersand industry and financial partners to accelerateRDD&D efforts for specific clean technologies onboth a national and international level.Solar energy is the most abundant energy resourceon earth. The solar energy that hits the earth’ssurface in one hour is about the same as theamount consumed by all human activities in ayear. Direct conversion of sunlight into electricityin PV cells is one of the three main solar activetechnologies, the two others being concentratingsolar power (CSP) and solar thermal collectors forheating and cooling (SHC). Today, PV provides0.1% of total global electricity generation.However, PV is expanding very rapidly due toeffective supporting policies and recent dramaticcost reductions. PV is a commercially available andreliable technology with a significant potential forlong-term growth in nearly all world regions. Inthe IEA solar PV roadmap vision, PV is projected toprovide 5% of global electricity consumption in2030, rising to 11% in 2050.Achieving this level of PV electricity supply – andthe associated, environmental, economic andsocietal benefits – will require more concertedpolicy support. Sustained, effective and adaptiveincentive schemes are needed to help bridge thegap to PV competitiveness, along with a long-term focus on technology development thatadvances all types of PV technologies, includingcommercially available systems and emerging andnovel technologies.The rationale for PV
  • 6 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyThis roadmap provides the basis for greaterinternational collaboration and identifies a set ofeffective technology, economic and policy goalsand milestones that will allow solar PV to deliveron its promise and contribute significantly to worldpower supply. It also identifies the critical windowof the next decade, during which PV is expectedto achieve competitiveness with the power gridretail prices (“grid parity”) in many regions.Achieving grid parity will require a strong andbalanced policy effort in the next decade to allowfor optimal technology progress, cost reductionand ramp-up of industrial manufacturing for massdeployment.The actions identified in this roadmap areintended to accelerate PV deployment globally. Insome markets certain actions have already beenachieved, or are underway; but many countries,particularly those in emerging regions, are onlyjust beginning to develop PV power. Accordingly,milestone dates should be considered as indicativeof relative urgency, rather than as absolutes.The roadmap was compiled using inputs from awide range of stakeholders from the PV industry,power sector, research and development (R&D)institutions, finance, and governments. Twoworkshops were held to identify technologicaland deployment issues, and a draft roadmap wassubsequently circulated to participants and a widerange of additional reviewers.This roadmap is informed by a number of existingregional and national roadmaps, including:1• The European Union’s Strategic EnergyTechnology (SET) Plan and the Solar EuropeIndustry Initiative• The European PV Technology Platform’sImplementation Plan for Strategic ResearchAgenda• The Solar America Initiative (SAI)• Japan’s PV roadmap towards 2030 (PV2030) andthe 2009 update PV2030+• China’s solar energy development plans• India’s Solar Initiative• Australia’s Solar Flagship InitiativeThis roadmap should be regarded as a work inprogress. As IEA analysis moves forward and anew edition of Energy Technology Perspectives ispublished in 2010, new data will come to light thatmay provide the basis for updated scenarios andassumptions. More importantly, as the technology,market, power sector and regulatory environmentscontinue to evolve, analyses will need to beupdated and additional tasks may come to light.1 See Appendix II for reference/URL links for all of theseefforts.Solar energy active conversion technologiesSolar photovoltaics (PV), which generates electricity through the direct conversion of sunlight,is one of the three technologies available to use sunlight as an active source. Concentrating solarpower systems (CSP) use concentrated solar radiation as a high temperature energy source toproduce electrical power and drive chemical reactions. CSP is typically applied in relatively largescale plants under very clear skies and bright sun. The availability of thermal storage and fuel back-up allows CSP plants to mitigate the effects of sunlight variability. Solar heating and cooling (SHC)uses the thermal energy directly from the sun to heat or cool domestic water or building spaces.These three ways of harnessing the sun are complementary, rather than directly competitive,and developers should carefully assess their needs and environment when choosing which solartechnology to use. The IEA is publishing a separate CSP roadmap, while SHC will be incorporatedinto a Low-Carbon/Energy Efficient Buildings Roadmap, to be published in 2010.The purpose of the roadmap
  • 7PV status todayTechnology performance and costPV systems directly convert solar energy intoelectricity. The basic building block of a PV systemis the PV cell, which is a semiconductor devicethat converts solar energy into direct-current (DC)electricity. PV cells are interconnected to form a PVmodule, typically up to 50-200 Watts (W).The PV modules combined with a set of additionalapplication-dependent system components (e.g.inverters, batteries, electrical components, andmounting systems), form a PV system. PV systemsare highly modular, i.e. modules can be linkedtogether to provide power ranging from a fewwatts to tens of megawatts (MW).R&D and industrialisation have led to a portfolioof available PV technology options at differentlevels of maturity. Commercial PV modules maybe divided into two broad categories: waferbased c-Si and thin films. There are a range ofemerging technologies, including concentratingphotovoltaics (CPV) and organic solar cells, as wellas novel concepts with significant potential forperformance increase and cost reduction.PV status todayPV technologies: an overviewCrystalline silicon (c-Si) modules represent 85-90% of the global annual market today. C-Si modulesare subdivided in two main categories: i) single crystalline (sc-Si) and ii) multi-crystalline (mc-Si).Thin films currently account for 10% to 15% of global PV module sales. They are subdivided intothree main families: i) amorphous (a-Si) and micromorph silicon (a-Si/µc-Si), ii) Cadmium-Telluride(CdTe), and iii) Copper-Indium-Diselenide (CIS) and Copper-Indium-Gallium-Diselenide (CIGS).Emerging technologies encompass advanced thin films and organic cells. The latter are about toenter the market via niche applications.Concentrator technologies (CPV) use an optical concentrator system which focuses solar radiationonto a small high-efficiency cell. CPV technology is currently being tested in pilot applications.Novel PV concepts aim at achieving ultra-high efficiency solar cells via advanced materials and newconversion concepts and processes. They are currently the subject of basic research.Detailed information on technologies can also be found in the IEA PVPS Implementing Agreementwebsite www.iea-pvps.orgThe large variety of PV applications allows fora range of different technologies to be presentin the market, from low-cost, lower efficiencytechnologies to high-efficiency technologies athigher cost. Note that the lower cost (per watt) tomanufacture some of the module technologies,namely thin films, is partially offset by the higherarea-related system costs (costs for mounting andthe required land) due to their lower conversionefficiency. Figure 1 gives an overview of the costand performance of different PV technologies.
  • 8 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyFigure 1: Current performance and price of different PV module technologies*Moduleprice(USDperWp)0123425%250 W/m220%200 W/m215%150 W/m210%100 W/m25%50 W/m2EfficiencyPerformanceUSD600 /m2USD500 /m2USD400 /m2USD300 /m2USD200 /m2Moduleprice per m2OrganicSolar CellsUnder 1%*Thin FilmsTechnologies10-15%*CrystallineSiliconTechnologies85-90%*ConcentratingPhotovoltaicsTechnologiesUnder 1%** percentage share of 2008 marketNote: all values refer to 2008KEY POINT: There is a wide range of PV cost and performance in today’s market.Conversion efficiency, defined as the ratio betweenthe produced electrical power and the amountof incident solar energy per second, is one ofthe main performance indicators of PV cells andmodules. Table 1 provides the current efficienciesof different commercial PV modules. PV systemscan be connected to the utility grid or operatedin stand-alone applications. They can also beused in building-integrated systems (BIPV)2or beground-mounted, for example, in large-scale, grid-connected electricity production facilities.2 In this roadmap, the term building-integrated PV systemsis used to indicate both retrofit systems mounted on top ofthe existing building structure and fully integrated systemsreplacing roof tiles and façade elements.The investment costs of PV systems are stillrelatively high, although they are decreasingrapidly as a result of technology improvements andeconomies of volume and scale. High investmentcosts, or total system costs, represent the mostimportant barrier to PV deployment today. Totalsystem costs are composed of the sum of modulecosts plus the expenses for the “balance-of-system”, including mounting structures, inverters,cabling and power management devices. While thecosts of different technology module types vary ona per watt basis (see Figure 1), these differences areless significant at the system level, which also takesinto account the efficiency and land-use needs ofthe technology. Total system costs are sensitiveto economies of scale and can vary substantiallydepending on the type of application.Table 1: Current efficiencies of different PV technology commercial modulesWafer-based c-Si Thin filmssc-Si mc-Si a-Si; a-Si/µc-Si CdTe CIS/CIGS14-20% 13-15% 6-9% 9-11% 10-12%
  • 9PV status todayTypical turn-key prices in 2008 in leading marketcountries ranged from USD 4 000 /kW for utilityscale, multi-megawatt applications, to USD 6 000/kW for small-scale applications in the residentialsector.3Associated levelised electricity generation costsfrom PV systems depend heavily on two factors:the amount of yearly sunlight irradiation (andassociated capacity factor), and the interest/discount rate. PV systems do not have moving parts,so operating and maintenance (O&M) costs arerelatively small, estimated at around 1% of capitalinvestment per year. Assuming an interest rate of3 The actual range of prices in IEA countries is larger. Bestsystem prices lower than 3 000 USD/kW were reportedin 2009. At the same time, according to IEA PVPS 2009,maximum prices for small-scale BIPV systems in 2008 in lessmature PV markets could be much higher.10%,4the PV electricity generation costs in 2008for utility-scale applications ranged from  USD 240/MWh in locations with very high irradiation andcapacity factor (2 000 kWh/kW, i.e. a 23% capacityfactor), to USD 480 /MWh in sites with moderate-low irradiation (1 000 kWh/kW, correspondingto a capacity factor of 11%). The correspondinggeneration costs for residential PV systemsranged from USD 360-720 /MWh, depending onthe relevant incident solar energy. While theseresidential system costs are very high, it should benoted that residential PV systems provide electricityat the distribution grid level. Therefore theycompete with electricity grid retail prices, which, ina number of OECD countries, can also be very high.4 This roadmap assumes an interest rate of 10%, incorrespondence with the assumption in the IEA EnergyTechnology Perspectives study. However, assuming a lowerrate (e.g., 5%) would lead to significantly lower estimates forgeneration costs.Installedcapacity(MWp)03 0006 0009 00012 00015 00019931994199519961992199720022006200820032004200520002001200719981999I On-gridI Off-gridMarket trendsThe global PV market has experienced vibrantgrowth for more than a decade with an averageannual growth rate of 40%. The cumulative installedPV power capacity has grown from0.1 GW in 1992 to 14 GW in 2008. Annual worldwideinstalled new capacity increased to almost 6 GW in2008. Figure 2 shows the global cumulative installedcapacity of PV for the past two decades.Figure 2: Cumulative installed global PV capacitySource: IEA PVPS for those IEA PVPS countries reporting data; estimates for other countries.KEY POINT: The PV market has experienced rapid growth, with an average annual growth rate of 40%.
  • 10 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyFour countries have a cumulative installed PVcapacity of one GW or above: Germany (5.3 GW),Spain (3.4 GW), Japan (2.1 GW) and the US(1.2 GW). These countries account for almost 80% ofthe total global capacity (Figure 3). Other countries(including Australia, China, France, Greece, India,Italy, Korea and Portugal) are gaining momentumdue to new policy and economic support schemes.Market end-use sectorsThere are four end-use sectors with distinctmarkets for PV:• Residential systems (typically up to 20 kWsystems on individual buildings/dwellings)• Commercial systems (typically up to 1 MWsystems for commercial office buildings,schools, hospitals, and retail)• Utility scale systems (starting at 1 MW,mounted on buildings or directly on theground)• Off-grid applications (varying sizes)These different applications have different systemcosts and compete at different price levels. Untilthe mid-1990s, most systems were stand-alone, off-Figure 3: Solar PV installed capacities in leading countriesYear 2000800 MWYear 20043 000 MWYear 2008more than 14 500 MWRest ofthe world14% Germany35%Japan38%UnitedStates13%Germany15%Japan44%UnitedStates18%Rest ofthe world23%Rest ofthe world11%Germany36%Japan15%United States8%Spain23%Italy3%Korea2%France1%China1%KEY POINT: A handful of countries with strong policy regimes account for 80% of global installedPV capacity; new countries have emerged as important players in the last few years.
  • 11PV status todaygrid applications such as telecommunications units,remote communities and rural electricity supply.Since then, the number of grid-connected systemshas increased at a rapid pace due to incentiveschemes introduced in many countries. The majorityof grid-connected systems are installed as BIPVsystems. However, ground-mounted large-scaleinstallations with a generation capacity in the tensof megawatts have gained a considerable marketshare in recent years. As a result, off-grid PV systemsnow constitute less than 10% of the total PV market;however, such applications still remain important inremote areas and in developing countries that lackelectricity infrastructure.Figure 4: Public PV R&D spending in selected countries2007200620052004200320022001200019991998PublicPVRDexpenditures(USDmillion)0100200300400500I Other countriesI USI JapanI GermanyKEY POINT: Government spending on PV R&D has increased in recent years.Note: Values in million USD, not corrected for inflation, based on yearly exchange rates.Source: IEA PVPS.Research and developmentWorldwide public expenditures for PV researchand development (R&D) have substantiallyincreased over the past decade.5Public R&D efforts(including pilot and demonstration projects)have doubled in key countries, rising fromUSD 250 million in 2000 to about USD 500 millionin 2007 (Figure 4). Pilot and demonstration5 While it is difficult to find detailed data on private sectorR&D investment in solar PV, evidence shows that privateinvestment in the early development phase of solar energysystems has expanded rapidly during past few years.Solar energy led all clean energy technology in terms ofventure capital investments in 2008, with USD 5.45 billionof investment and 88% growth from 2007 (New EnergyFinance [NEF] 2009).projects and programmes account for about 25%(in 2000) to 30% (in 2007) of these expenditures.R&D efforts are important all along the valuechain of energy generation; from raw materialproduction to the manufacturing of modulesand balance-of-system components. Solar celland module research constitutes the largestfraction of the R&D portion, typically 75% of totalexpenditures (IEA PVPS 2009).
  • 12 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyA number of major government and industry R&Defforts aim to make PV a mainstream power sourcewithin the next decade, including:6• Within the European Union’s SET Plan, theSolar Europe Industry Initiative – led by theEuropean Photovoltaic Industry Association(EPIA) – proposes three scenarios resultingin three levels of solar share in the electricitymarket in Europe: 4% for the Baseline scenario,6% for the accelerated growth scenario and12% for the paradigm shift scenario. The EPIAis confident about achieving the paradigmshift target, based on the rapid ramp-up ofthe past decade (average annual growth rateof 40%). The paradigm shift scenario requiresa rapid, widespread adoption of smart gridtechnologies and power storage and furtherimprovements in high quality manufacturingand products all along the PV supply chain.• The European PV Technology Platform’sImplementation Plan for Strategic ResearchAgenda includes dedicated R&D effortsalong the value chain in order to acceleratetechnology development and to achieve newlevels of cost-effectiveness.• Through the Solar America Initiative (SAI)from 2007-09, the US Department of Energyhas launched a plan for integrated research,development and market transformation ofsolar energy technologies with the mission tomake PV-generated electricity cost-competitivewith conventional electricity sources by 2015.6 See Annex II for a list of references and URLs.• Japan’s PV roadmaps towards 2030 (PV2030)was developed in 2004 to explore a wide setof R&D options. This effort aims to createviable and sustainable business along thevalue chain from raw material production tothe manufacturing of modules and balance-of-system components. In 2009, the roadmap wasrevised to “PV2030+”; it now aims at achievingtechnology targets three to five years ahead ofthe schedule set in PV2030.• Australia has recently announced support forthe development of 1 000 MW of utility sizesolar generation, utilising both solar PV andsolar thermal. The goal of Australia’s SolarFlagships initiative is to demonstrate theintegration of utility-scale solar generation intoa contemporary energy network.• China and India are each pursuing anaggressive solar PV growth strategy, creatinga very important industry and setting upambitious mid-term targets for the domesticmarket in the multi-GW scale. Brazil is a leadingcountry in the use of PV for rural electrification.
  • 13Vision for PV deployment and CO2abatement potentialElectricity generation and cumulative installed capacityPV will need to play a significant role in the world’senergy mix in 2050 to help achieve global climatechange goals at the lowest cost. According tothe BLUE Map scenario described in IEA’s EnergyTechnology Perspectives 2008 (ETP) publication, by2050, solar power is expected to provide 11% ofannual global electricity production, with roughlyhalf generated from PV (6%) and the remainingfrom concentrated solar power.7This roadmap,however, forecasts a more rapid PV deploymentthan is estimated in the ETP 2008 study–i.e., PV isprojected to reach 11% by 2050, almost the doublethe level estimated in the BLUE Map scenario.7 Other scenarios in literature indicate contributions wellabove the ETP 2008 numbers at world or regional level; seeEREC Greenpeace (2008), EPIA/Greenpeace Solar GenerationV (2008), EPIA Set for 2020 (2009), Grand Solar Plan (2008).Vision for PV deployment andCO2abatement potentialEnergy Technology Perspectives 2008 BLUE Map ScenarioThis roadmap outlines a set of quantitative measures and qualitative actions that represent oneglobal pathway for solar PV deployment to 2050. It builds on the IEA Energy Technology Perspectives(ETP) BLUE Map scenario, which describes how energy technologies may be transformed by 2050to achieve the global goal of reducing annual CO2emissions to half that of 2005 levels. The ETPmodel is a bottom-up MARKAL model that uses cost optimisation to identify least-cost mixes ofenergy technologies and fuels to meet energy demand, given constraints such as the availabilityof natural resources. The ETP model is a global fifteen-region model that permits the analysis offuel and technology choices throughout the energy system. The model’s detailed representation oftechnology options includes about 1 000 individual technologies. The model has been developedover a number of years and has been used in many analyses of the global energy sector. In addition,the ETP model was supplemented with detailed demand-side models for all major end-uses in theindustry, buildings and transport sectors.An accelerated outlook is justified by the recentPV market growth (Figure 2) and associated costreductions – the global PV market more thandoubled in one year from 2007 to 2008, andsystem prices fell 40% between 2008 and 2009.This acceleration in the deployment of PV has beentriggered by the adoption of PV incentive schemesin an increasing number of countries. As a result ofthis sort of policy support, this roadmap envisionsthat PV will achieve grid parity (i.e. competitivenesswith electricity grid retail prices) in many countriesby 2020. Parity is expected to first be achievedin those countries having a high solar irradiationlevel and high retail electricity costs. This roadmapalso assumes the continuation of an evolving,favourable and balanced policy framework formarket deployment and technology developmentin many countries on the longer term. If suchpolicies are successfully implemented, by 2050there will be 3 000 GW of installed PV capacityworldwide, generating 4 500 TWh per year, 11% ofexpected global electricity supply (Figure 5).
  • 14 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyFigure 5: Global PV power generation and relative shareof total electricity generationPVelectricitygenerationinTWhRelativePVshareoftotalglobalelectricitygeneration01 0002 0003 0004 0006 0005 0000%2%4%6%8%12%10%2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050ETP Blue Map ScenarioIEA Roadmap Vision ScenarioIndustryScenario:Greenpeace/EPIASolarGenerationVadvancedPV electricity generation share for each scenarioScenarioNote: The share of total electricity generation is calculated with the projected world electricity generation of the ETP BLUE Mapscenario (42 300 TWh in 2050).Sources: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, EPIA/Greenpeace Solar Generation V.KEY POINT: The roadmap envisions PV providing 11% of global electricity generation by 2050.The roadmap assumes an average annual marketgrowth rate of 17% in the next decade, leading toa global cumulative installed PV power capacity of200 GW by 2020.8This level of PV market growthis justified by the achievement of grid paritypredicted to occur in an increasing number ofcountries during this time. Achieving grid paritywill be facilitated in part by policy incentives thatsupport the deployment and decrease overallcosts of PV and by measures increasing the cost ofother technologies. Accelerated deployment andmarket growth will in turn bring about further costreductions from economies of scale, significantlyimproving the relative competitiveness of PV by2020 and spurring additional market growth.8 Note that this value is significantly higher than the ETP 2008forecast, but significantly lower than industry’s goals. Forexample, the European SET plan projects 400 GW installedin Europe by 2020, and an indicative target of 700 GW by2030.From 2020 to 2030, an average annual marketgrowth rate of 11% is assumed, bringing globalcumulative installed PV capacity to about 900 GWby 2030. At this time, the annual market volume ofnew installed capacity would be over 100 GW peryear. The total cumulative installed PV capacity ispredicted to reach 2 000 GW by 2040 and3 000 GW by 2050, taking into account thereplacement of old PV systems. The forecastedglobal cumulative installed PV capacity accordingto this roadmap is presented in Figure 6 andcompared with the ETP 2008 BLUE Map scenarioand other industry scenarios.
  • 15Vision for PV deployment and CO2abatement potentialKEY POINT: This roadmap sets an accelerated vision for PV growth; other estimates suggestthat PV potential could be higher.Figure 6: Comparison of IEA roadmap vision of global cumulative installedPV capacity to other scenariosNote: ETP Blue Scenario’s capacity was calculated using 1 500 kWh/kW.Sources: Outcomes of PV Roadmap workshops 2009, IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, EPIA/Greenpeace Solar Generation V.TotalinstalledcapacityinGWp02 0003 0004 0005 0006 0001 00020502040203020202010ETP Blue Map scenarioIEA Roadmap vision scenarioIndustry scenario:Greenpeace/EPIASolar Generation VadvancedEmerging economies: rapidly growing PV marketsThis roadmap envisions a rapid growth of PV power throughout the world in OECD countries as well asin Asia, and at a later stage in Latin America and Africa. Major economies like China and India havebecome global solar forces in the past decade, and will remain important market influencers in thedecades to come. The potential of PV for distributed generation is very substantial in Latin Americaand Africa. These world regions may become very important markets in the mid- to long-term. Brazilis a leading country in the use of PV for rural electrification and can play a major role in technologycollaboration with developing countries.BrazilThe main applications of PV technology in Brazil are telecommunications (i.e. microwave repeaterstations), rural electrification, water pumping and public lighting in low-income rural communities.Grid-connected PV systems are still in an experimental stage, with a combined power of 22 kWpinstalled (Varella et al., 2009). In 1995, the Brazilian government launched a programme to promoterural electrification with PV systems, PRODEEM (Programme of Energy Development of States andMunicipalities). Approximately 9000 PV systems were installed in the period 1996-2001, with a total of6 MWp of installed capacity. In 2003, the federal government launched the programme Luz para Todos(Light for All), which aims to supply full electrification in the country by 2010. The programme has anestimated total budget of about USD 2.6 billion funded by the federal government, concessionaires andstate governments. A programme for labelling PV equipment and systems was launched in 2003 byINMETRO (Brazilian Institute for Metrology, Standardisation and Industrial Quality) to guarantee thequality of equipment acquired and installed within the Light for All programme. This labelling scheme iscurrently in force and applies to PV modules, charge controllers, inverters and batteries and is done on avoluntary basis (Varella et al., 2008). The Brazilian PV market is currently dominated by multinationals,and there are no national manufacturers. However, with the support of the government, the BrazilianCentre for Development of Solar PV Energy (CB-Solar), created in 2004, has developed a pilot plant tomanufacture cost effective PV modules and silicon solar cells at scale (Moehlecke and Zanesco, 2007).
  • 16 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyChinaChina’s solar PV industry has been growing rapidly and the country now ranks first in the world inexports of PV cells. Domestic output of PV cells expanded from less than 100 MW in 2005 to 2 GW in2008, experiencing a 20-fold increase in just four years (Sicheng Wang, 2008). This is the result of astrong demand from the international PV market, especially from Germany and Japan. However, the PVmarket demand in China remains small, with more than 95% of the country’s PV-cell products exported.In 2008, China’s cumulative PV installed capacity was 150 MW (National Energy Administration, 2009).Some 40% of this demand is met by independent PV power systems that supply electricity to remotedistricts not covered by the national grid. Market shares of solar PV for communications, industrial,and commercial uses have also increased. BIPV systems, as well as large-scale PV installations in desertareas, are being encouraged by the Chinese government, which began providing a subsidy of RMB 20(USD 2.93) perwatt for BIPV projects in early 2009. It is likely that the 2010 and 2020 national targets for solar PV(400 MW and 1 800 MW, respectively) announced in 2007 will be significantly increased. Experts predictthat Chinese installed capacity could reach 1 GW in 2010 and 20 GW in 2020 (CREIA, 2009).IndiaIndia has a large and diversified PV industry consisting of ten fully vertically integrated manufacturersmaking solar cells, solar panels and complete PV systems, and around 50 assemblers of various kinds.Together, these companies supply around 200 MW per year of 30 different types of PV systems inthree categories – rural, remote area and industrial. However, despite this strong industrial base, PVconstitutes a small part of India’s installed power generation capacity, with 2.7 MW grid- connectedsystems and1.9 MW stand-alone systems in 2008 (Banerjee, 2008). There have been a number of high-levelgovernment initiatives that have provided new momentum for PV deployment in India, including:• The 2008 Action Plan on Climate Change included a “National Solar Mission” that establishes atarget of generating 20 GW of electricity from solar energy by 2020; the programme aims to boostannual PV power generation to 1 000 MW by 2017.• In 2008, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) established a target of 50 MW ofcapacity by 2012 to be achieved through its Generation Based Incentives (GBI) programme. TheGBI includes production incentives for large solar power plants of INR 12 (USD 0.25) per kWh for PVpower for up to 50 MW of capacity, subject to a maximum 10 MW in any one state.• The Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2007-12) proposed solar RD&D funding of INR 4 billion (86.4M USD).The Working Group on R&D for the Energy Sector proposed an additional INR 53 billion (1.15BUSD) in RD&D for the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, with the two largest topics being: research on siliconproduction for PV manufacturing (total investment INR 12 billion [259M USD], including theestablishment of a silicon production facility) and research on LEDs (INR 10 billion [216M USD], alsoincluding the establishment of a manufacturing facility).
  • 17Vision for PV deployment and CO2abatement potentialApplications and market end-use sectorsThe relative share of the four market segments(residential, commercial, utility-scale and off-grid) is expected to change significantly over time(Figure 7). In particular, the cumulative installedcapacity of residential PV systems is expected todecrease from almost 60% today to less than 40%by 2050. Figure 7 shows a possible developmentpath for electricity generation of PV systemsworldwide by end use sector. The relative sharesof PV deployment among the different sectorswill vary by country according to each country’sparticular market framework.Figure 7: Evolution of photovoltaic electricity generation by end-use sector01 0002 0003 0003 5004 0004 5005001 5002 50012%10%8%6%4%2%0%2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Photovoltaicelectricitygeneration(TWhperyear)Shareofglobalelectricitygeneration(%)ResidentialCommercialUtilityOff-gridShare of global electricity generation (%)Source: IEA analysis based on survey reports of selected countries between 1992 and 2008, IEA PVPS, and IEA 2008 (ETP).KEY POINT: There will be a shift from residential to larger-scale PV applications over time.Tables 2, 3 and 4 provide more detailed information on the evolution by sector of global electricitygeneration, cumulative installed power capacity, and annual market, respectively.Table 2: Annual PV power generation (TWh) by end-use sectorAnnual electricity generation (TWh) 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Residential 23 153 581 1244 1794Commercial 4 32 144 353 585Utility 8 81 368 910 1498Off-grid 3 32 154 401 695Total 37 298 1247 2907 4572Note that the average electricity generation per kW is 1 300 kWh/kW in the residential sector, 1 450 kWh/kW in the commercial sector,1650 kWh/kW in the utility sector and 1500 kWh/kW in the off-grid sector.
  • 18 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyTable 3: Cumulative installed PV capacity (GW) by end-use sectorPV capacity (GW) 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Residential 17 118 447 957 1380Commercial 3 22 99 243 404Utility 5 49 223 551 908Off-grid 2 21 103 267 463Total 27 210 872 2019 3155Table 4: Annual global PV market volume (GW) by end-use sectorPV market (GW) 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Residential 4.1 18 50 55 53Commercial 0.7 4 13 17 20Utility 1.6 8 28 37 44Off-grid 0.6 4 14 19 24Market 7 34 105 127 141Cost reduction goalsWhile the production costs vary among thedifferent PV module technologies, these module-level cost differentials are less significant at thesystem level, which are expected to converge inthe long term. Therefore, this roadmap suggestssetting overall cost targets by application (e.g.,residential, commercial or utility-scale) ratherthan for specific PV technologies (e.g., crystallinesilicon, thin films, or emerging and novel devices).The roadmap assumes that cost reductions forfuture PV systems continue along the historic PVexperience curve. PV module costs have decreasedin the past at a learning rate of 15% to 22%,9andhave seen a corresponding reduction in totalsystem costs for every doubling of cumulativeinstalled capacity. The roadmap adopts a learningrate of 18% for the whole PV system.9 An experience curve describes how unit costs decline withcumulative production. The relevant cost decline measure isgiven by the progress ratio (P) or the learning rate (L=1-P).A learning rate of 20% corresponds to a cost reduction by20% for each doubling of cumulative production. Sources:Neji 2007, EPIA; Set for 2020; A Mainstream Power Source inEurope by 2020; 2009.Tables 5, 6 and 7 summarise the cost targets for PVin the residential, commercial, and utility sectors,respectively, in terms of both total turnkey systemprice (cost per kW installed capacity) and total costof electricity (cost per MWh energy generated).Such cost targets are the result of the roadmapworkshop discussion, based on the StrategicResearch Agenda and the Implementation Planof the European PV Technology Platform (2007,2009), the Solar America Initiative (DOE 2007), theJapanese PV roadmap towards 2030 / PV2030+(NEDO 2004, 2009) and the IEA Energy TechnologyPerspectives 2008.The primary PV economic goal is to reduce turn-key system prices and electricity generation costsby more than two-thirds by 2030. Turn-key systemprices are expected to drop by 70% from currentUSD 4 000 to USD 6 000 per kW down toUSD 1 200 to USD 1 800 per kW by 2030, with amajor price reduction (over 50%) already achievedby 2020. Large scale utility system prices areexpected to drop to USD 1 800 per kW by 2020and USD 800 per kW by 2050, and in the best casewill lead to long-term levelised generation costslower than USD 50 /MWh.
  • 19Vision for PV deployment and CO2abatement potentialTable 5: Cost targets for the residential sector2008 2020 2030 2050Typical turn-key system price (2008 USD/kW) 6000 2700 1800 1200Typical electricitygeneration costs(2008 USD/MWh)*2000 kWh/kW 360 160 100 651500 kWh/kW 480 210 135 901000 kWh/kW 720 315 205 135Assumptions: Interest rate 10%, technical lifetime 25 years (2008), 30 years (2020), 35 years (2030) and 40 years (2050);operations and maintenance (O&M) costs 1%.Table 6: Cost targets for the commercial sector2008 2020 2030 2050Typical turn-key system price (2008 USD/kWp) 5000 2250 1500 1000Typical electricitygeneration costs(2008 USD/MWh)*2000 kWh/kWp 300 130 85 551500 kWh/kWp 400 175 115 751000 kWh/kWp 600 260 170 110Assumptions: Interest rate 10%, technical lifetime 25 years (2008), 30 years (2020), 35 years (2030) and 40 years (2050);O&M costs 1%.Table 7: Cost targets for the utility sector2008 2020 2030 2050Typical turn-key system price (2008 USD/kWp) 4000 1800 1200 800Typical electricitygeneration costs(2008 USD/MWh)*2000 kWh/kWp 240 105 70 451500 kWh/kWp 320 140 90 601000 kWh/kWp 480 210 135 90Assumptions: Interest rate 10%, technical lifetime 25 years (2008), 30 years (2020), 35 years (2030) and 40 years (2050);O&M costs 1%.PV market deployment and competitiveness levelsPV has already achieved competitiveness for anumber of off-grid stand-alone products, servicesand applications. However, the majority of thePV industry output is grid-connected; therefore,the on-grid market will remain the major marketsegment in the future. Commercial goals for PVare therefore focused on achieving respectivelycompetitiveness with electricity grid retail pricesfor residential and commercial PV systems, andwith electricity generation costs for utility-scale systems. Since electricity prices and solarirradiation vary from one market place to anotherit is only possible to identify time ranges for PVcompetitiveness on a global basis. Three mainphases have been envisioned for the commercialdevelopment of PV (Figure 8).
  • 20 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyFigure 8: PV market deployment and competitiveness levelsKEY POINT: PV is already competitive today in selected off-grid applications, and will achievecompetitiveness in three phases.Electricitygenerationcosts(USDperMWh)250150100503002003504000PV utilityPV residentialBLUE Map wholesale electricity costsBLUE Map retailelectricity costs2 000 kWh/kW1 500 kWh/kW2 000 kWh/kW1 000 kWh/kWEstablishment of PV industrialmass productionLarge-scale integration of PV powerin the gridPV systems and powerfor general purpose usePV systems and power for1 0004 0003 0002 000040 TWh/yr 300 TWh/yr1200 TWh/yrSupported market growth inincreasing number of countriesthrough 2020Tangible contributionto power supplyTransition to self-sustained marketsHigh penetration of PVout to 2050Note: PV electricitygeneration costs arecalculated with a10% discount rateAnnualPVelectricitygenerationinterawatt-hours(TWh/yr)1st competitivenesslevel: PV least costoption in selectedapplications2nd competitiveness level:PV generation costs = retailelectricity prices and tariffs3rd competitiveness level:PV generation costs = wholesale electricity costsTypical utility systemprice: USD 4 000/kWTypical utility electricitygeneration costs: USD240/MWhUtility price: USD 1800/kWCosts: USD 105/MWhUtility price: USD 1200/kWCosts: USD 70/MWhPV capacity:27 GWMarket:7 GW/yrShare of globalelectricity generation2010: 0.2%Share: 1%Capacity: 200 GWMarket: 34 GW/yrShare: 5%Market: 105 GW/yrCapacity: 900 GW2010 2020 2030Assumptions: Interest rate 10%, technical lifetime 25 years (2008), 30 years (2020), 35 years (2030) and 40 years (2050);O&M costs 1%.In the first decade, the annual PV market of newinstallations is expected to increase from 6 GWto 34 GW, and PV industry to ramp-up into mass-scale industrial production, and to reduce systemand generation costs by more than 50%. This willallow PV residential and commercial systems toachieve parity with the distribution grid electricityretail prices in a number of countries characterisedby a good solar resource and high conventionalelectricity retail prices. In a few cases, this is likelyto occur before 2015. By 2020 PV generation costsare expected to range from USD 13-26 cents/kWh (commercial systems) to USD 16-31 cents/kWh (residential systems), depending on the site-specific solar irradiation level. These costs areexpected to be lower than electricity retail pricesin several countries. In the same timeframe, utilityPV system will achieve USD 10 cents/kWh, arrivingat the edge of competitiveness with wholesaleelectricity costs in some countries. To achieve thesegoals, PV will require sustained and consistentpolicy frameworks and support incentives in manycountries during this period.From 2020 to 2030, this roadmap envisionsthat PV will advance toward large-scale gridintegration, and start to become competitive ata much broader scale. Towards the end of thedecade, typical utility PV system generation costsare expected to decrease down to USD 7-13 cent/kWh and PV will become competitive at utility-scale with wholesale electricity prices in someworld regions. By that time, commercial andresidential systems will become cost-competitivein almost all world regions with reasonable solarirradiation. The annual market/shipment volumewill have increased by another factor of three overthis decade (hitting the benchmark of 100 GW by2030), leading to a cumulative installed capacityof almost 900 GW worldwide. During this period,economic incentives should begin to graduallybe phased-out while maintaining grid accessguarantees and sustained R&D support.
  • 21Vision for PV deployment and CO2abatement potentialThe phase from 2030-2050 will be characterisedby the large-scale diffusion of PV systems andpower for general purpose uses. System costs willrange from USD 800 to USD 1200 /kW dependingon the application sector. This will lead to typicalgeneration costs of USD 4.5-9 cent/kWh at theutility scale and of USD 6.5-13.5 cent/kWh atresidential level. The annual market will still grow,although at a slower pace than in the two previousdecades. The total cumulative installed capacity willincrease up to 3 000 GWp. This will generate anelectricity production of approximately4 500 TWh/year, corresponding to a projected shareof around 11% of total world electricity generation.Total investment needsAchieving this roadmap, based on the assumedevolution of system costs and the need for PVsystem replacement, will require a total investmenton the order of USD 5 trillion (Figure 9).1010 While this figure is large, it is only 6% of the total additionalinvestment needed to achieve the BLUE Map scenario targetof reducing energy sector CO2emissions 50% by 2050.Figure 9: PV investments by decadeKEY POINT: Achieving this roadmap’s goals will require an investment of USD 5 trillion.04001 6001 20080020202010 2030 2040 2050Investmentcostsperdecade(USDbillion)CO2emissions reductionThe deployment of PV will contribute significantlyto the reduced carbon intensity of electricitygeneration. Taking into account the differentaverage CO2emissions of electricity productionmixes in different world regions, and using theBLUE Map scenario average long-term emissionreduction coefficients for the power sector, the4 500 TWh generated by PV in 2050 is expectedto save 2.3 Gt of CO2emissions on an annual basisworldwide, almost twice that predicted in the BLUEMap scenario. This corresponds to approximately5% of the total avoided CO2emissions (48 Gt) fromall technology areas projected in the ETP 2008BLUE Map Scenario with respect to the BaselineScenario. Over the period 2008-2050,the estimated cumulative savings are around100 Gt of CO2(Figure 10).11Figure 10: Annual CO2emissionsavoided through PV11 This takes into account an average operational lifetime of35 years and the relevant decommissioning and substitutionof old plants.05002 5002 0001 5001 00020202010 2030 2040 2050CO2savings(Mt/yr)KEY POINT: This roadmap’s accelerated use of PV results in emissions reductionsof more than 2 Gt CO2per year by 2050.
  • 22 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyAchieving the deployment path outlined in thisroadmap will require a significant investment bygovernment and industry in effective technologydevelopment and policy implementation.This section identifies short-, mid- and long-termtechnology goals and milestones and related keyR&D issues.Technology trendsWith the aim of achieving further significant costreductions and efficiency improvements, R&D ispredicted to continuously progress in improvingexisting technologies and developing newtechnologies. It is expected that a broad variety oftechnologies will continue to characterise the PVtechnology portfolio, depending on the specificrequirements and economics of the variousapplications. Figure 11 gives an overview of thedifferent PV technologies and concepts underdevelopment.KEY POINT: Current technologies will co-exist with emerging technologies and novel concepts.Table 8 summarises a set of general technologytargets for PV systems, expressed in terms of(maximum) conversion efficiency, energy-paybacktime, and operational lifetime. Typical commercialflat-plate module efficiencies are expected toincrease from 16% in 2010 to 25% in 2030 withthe potential of increasing up to 40% in 2050.Concurrently, the use of energy and materialsin the manufacturing process will becomesignificantly more efficient, leading to considerablyshortened PV system energy pay-back times.12Thelatter is expected to be reduced from maximumtwo years in 2010 to 0.75 year in 2030 and below0.5 year in the long-term. Finally, the operationallifetime is expected to increase from 25 to 40 years.12 The energy pay-back time is defined as the time neededfor the PV system to repay the energy spent for itsmanufacturing.Technology development:Strategic goals and milestonesFigure 11: Photovoltaic technology status and prospectsSource: IEA PVPS.010%20%30%40%2020 20302008Advanced inorganic thin-film technologiesOrganic solar cellsIII Ð Emerging technologiesand novel conceptsIV Ð Concentrating photovoltaicsI Ð Crystalline silicon technologies:single crystalline, multi-crystalline, ribbonII Ð Thin-film technologies:cadmium-telluride, copper-indium/gallium,-diselenide/disulphide and related II-VI compounds, thin-film siliconQuantum wells, up-down converters, intermediateband gaps, plasmonics, thermo-photovoltaics, etcEfficiencyratesofindustriallymanufacturedmodule/product
  • 23Technology development: Strategic goals and milestonesTable 8: General technology targetTargets (rounded figures) 2008 2020 2030 2050Typical flat-plate moduleefficienciesUp to 16% Up to 23% Up to 25% Up to 40%Typical maximum system energypay-back time (in years)in 1500 kWh/kWp regime2 years 1 year 0.75 year 0.5 yearOperational lifetime 25 years 30 years 35 years 40 yearsSpecific technology goals and R&D issuesCrystalline siliconToday, the vast majority of PV modules (85% to90% of the global annual market) are based onwafer-based c-Si. Crystalline silicon PV modulesare expected to remain a dominant PV technologyuntil at least 2020, with a forecasted market shareof about 50% by that time (Energy TechnologyPerspectives 2008). This is due to their provenand reliable technology, long lifetimes, andabundant primary resources. The main challengefor c-Si modules is to improve the efficiency andeffectiveness of resource consumption throughmaterials reduction, improved cell concepts andautomation of manufacturing.The manufacturing of c-Si modules typicallyinvolves growing ingots of silicon, slicing theingots into wafers to make solar cells, electricallyinterconnecting the cells, and encapsulatingthe strings of cells to form a module. Modulescurrently use silicon in one of two main forms:single- sc-Si or mc-Si.13Current commercial singlesc-Si modules have a higher conversion efficiencyof around 14 to 20%. Their efficiency is expectedto increase up to 23% by 2020 and up to 25% inthe longer term. Multi-crystalline silicon moduleshave a more disordered atomic structure leading tolower efficiencies, but they are less expensive (seeTable 9 and Figure 1). Their efficiency is expectedto increase up to 21% in the long term.Continuous targeted R&D on sc-Si technologiesin public and industrial research with a near-termfocus can result in a substantial cost reductionand an associated volume effect, both of whichare needed to enhance the competiveness andaccelerate the scaling-up of PV in the next decade.The major required R&D efforts for crystalline solarcells are summarised in Table 9.13 Recently, ribbon technologies have been developed thathave potentially similar efficiencies as mc-Si but a muchbetter utilisation rate of silicon feedstock. However, thisparticular technology has not yet achieved significantmarket shares.
  • 24 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyTable 9: Technology goals and key R&D issues for crystallinesilicon technologiesCrystalline silicontechnologies2010 – 2015 2015 – 2020 2020 – 2030 / 2050Efficiency targetsin % (commercialmodules)• Single-crystalline: 21%• Multi-crystalline: 17%• Single-crystalline: 23%• Multi-crystalline: 19%• Single-crystalline: 25%• Multi-crystalline: 21%Industrymanufacturingaspects• Si consumption < 5grams / Watt (g/W)• Si consumption < 3 g/W • Si consumption < 2 g/WSelected R&Dareas• New silicon materialsand processing• Cell contacts, emittersand passivation• Improved devicestructures• Productivity andcost optimisation inproduction• Wafer equivalenttechnologies• New device structureswith novel conceptsThin filmsThin films are made by depositing extremelythin layers of photosensitive materials in themicrometre (μm) range on a low-cost backing suchas glass, stainless steel or plastic. The first thinfilm solar cell produced was a-Si. Based on earlya-Si single junction cells, amorphous tandem andtriple cell configuration have been developed.To reach higher efficiencies, thin amorphous andmicrocrystalline silicon cells have been combinedto form micromorph cells (also called thin hybridsilicon cells).14In the area of II-VI semiconductorcompounds, other thin film technologies havebeen developed, including Cadmium Telluride(CdTe) and Copper-Indium-Gallium-Diselenide(CIGS).14 Another option currently being researched is thecombination of single-crystalline and amorphous PV celltechnology. The HIT (Heterojunction with Intrinsic Thin layercells) technology is based on a crystalline silicon cell coatedwith a supplementary amorphous PV cell to increase theefficiency.The main advantages of thin films are theirrelatively low consumption of raw materials, highautomation and production efficiency, ease ofbuilding integration and improved appearance,good performance at high ambient temperature,and reduced sensitivity to overheating. The currentdrawbacks are lower efficiency and the industry’slimited experience with lifetime performances.Increased R&D is needed to bring thin filmtechnologies to market and to create the necessaryexperience in industrial manufacturing and long-term reliability. The most promising R&D areasinclude improved device structures and substrates,large area deposition techniques, interconnection,roll-to-roll manufacturing and packaging. Table 10summarises the prospects and key R&D issues forthin film technologies until 2030.
  • 25Technology development: Strategic goals and milestonesTable 10: Technology goals and key R&D issues for thin film technologiesThin film technologies 2010 – 2015 2015 – 2020 2020 – 2030Efficiency targets in %(commercial modules)• Thin film Si: 10%• Copper indiumgallium (di)selenide(CIGS): 14%• Cadmium-telluride(CdTe): 12%• Thin film Si: 12%• CIGS: 15%• CdTe: 14%• Thin film Si: 15%• CIGS: 18%• CdTe: 15%Industrymanufacturingaspects• High rate deposition• Roll-to-rollmanufacturing• Packaging• Simplified productionprocesses• Low cost packaging• Management of toxicmaterials• Large high-efficiencyproduction units• Availability ofmanufacturingmaterials• Recycling of modulesSelected R&D areas • Large area depositionprocesses• Improved substratesand transparentconductive oxides• Improved cellstructures• Improved depositiontechniques• Advanced materialsand conceptsThin film technologies are in the process of rapidgrowth. In the last years, thin film productionunits have increased from pilot scale to 50 MWlines, with some manufacturing units in theGW range recently announced. As a result, thinfilms are expected to increase their market sharesignificantly by 2020.II-VI semiconductor thin filmsCdTe cells are a type of II-VI semiconductor thinfilm and have a relatively simple productionprocess, allowing for lower production costs. CdTetechnology has achieved the highest productionlevel of all the thin film technologies. It also has anenergy payback time of eight months, the shortesttime among all existing PV technologies. For CIGScells, the fabrication process is more demandingand results in higher costs and efficienciescompared to CdTe cells. Today, CdTe has achieveda dominant position amongst thin film in termsof market share and has a market-leading cost-perwatt. However, it is difficult to predict which ofthe thin film technologies will reach higher marketshares in a mid- and long-term perspectives.Emerging technologies and novelconcepts15Emerging technologiesEmerging PV technologies comprise advancedinorganic thin film technologies (e.g. Si, CIS) as well15 The label “emerging” applies to technologies for whichat least one “proof-of-concept” exists or which can beconsidered longer – term options that will radicallyimprove the development of the two established solar celltechnologies – crystalline Si and thin film solar cells. Thelabel “novel” applies to developments and ideas that canpotentially lead to new innovative technologies.as organic solar cells. Within the organic cells area,there are different technology branches such asthe dye sensitised solar cell (a hybrid approach ofan organic cell retaining an inorganic component)and fully organic approaches. Organic solar cells arepotentially low cost technologies that are about tomake their market entrance for niche applications.Their relevance for energy production in powerapplications, however, remains to be proven. Anotheremerging PV technology is based on the conceptof thermo-photovoltaics whereby a high efficiencyPV cell is combined with a thermal radiationsource. This concept could also become relevant forconcentrating solar technologies in the future.
  • 26 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyNovel PV conceptsNovel PV concepts aim at achieving ultra-high-efficiency solar cells by developing active layerswhich best match the solar spectrum or whichmodify the incoming solar spectrum. Bothapproaches build on progress in nanotechnologyand nano-materials. Quantum wells, quantumwires and quantum dots are examples of structuresintroduced in the active layer. Further approachesdeal with the collection of excited charge carriers(hot carrier cells) and the formation of intermediateband gaps. These novel concepts are currently thesubject of basic research. Their market relevancewill depend on whether they can be combinedwith existing technologies or whether they lead toentirely new cell structures and processes. Largemarket deployment of such concepts – if provensuccessful – is expected in the medium to longterm. Considerable basic and applied R&D effortsaimed at the mid- to long-term are required inorder to further develop these approaches andto ultimately bring them to market in end useapplications.Concentrator technologies (CPV)All PV technologies described so far are so-calledflat-plate technologies which use the naturallyavailable sunlight. As an alternative, direct solarradiation can be concentrated by optical meansand used in concentrator solar cell technologies.Considerable research has been undertaken in thishigh-efficiency approach because of the attractivefeature of the much smaller solar cell area required.Low and medium concentration systems (up to100 suns) work with high-efficiency silicon solarcells. For the highest concentration levels beyond500 suns, III-V compound semiconductors arebeing used for the CPV solar cells and efficienciesbeyond 40% have been achieved in the laboratory.The CPV technology is presently moving from pilotfacilities to commercial-scale applications. FurtherR&D efforts are required in optical systems,module assembly, tracking systems, high-efficiencydevices, manufacturing and installation. Theprospects and key R&D issues for CPV as well asemerging and novel technologies are summarisedin Table 11.Table 11: Prospects and key R&D issues for concentrating PV,emerging and novel technologiesConcentrating PV Emerging technologies Novel technologiesType of cell High cost, super highefficiencyLow cost, moderateperformanceVery high efficiencyFull spectrum utilisationStatus and potential 23% alternating-current(AC) system efficiencydemonstratedPotential to reach over30% in the medium-termEmerging technologiesat demonstration level(e.g. polymer PV, dye PV,printed CIGS)First applicationsexpected in nichemarket applicationsWide variety of newconversion principle anddevice concepts at lablevelFamily of potentialbreakthroughtechnologiesSelected R&D areas Reach super highefficiency over 45%Achieve low cost, high-performance solutionsfor optical concentrationand trackingImprovement ofefficiency and stabilityto the level neededfor first commercialapplicationsEncapsulation oforganic-based conceptsProof-of-principleof new conversionconceptsProcessing,characterisation andmodelling of especiallynano-structuredmaterials and devices
  • 27Policy frameworks: Roadmap actions and milestonesDeploying PV according to the vision of thisroadmap requires strong, consistent and balancedpolicy support. The four main areas of policyintervention include:• Creating a policy framework for marketdeployment, including tailored incentiveschemes to accelerate market competitiveness• Improving products and components, financingmodels and training and education to fostermarket facilitation and transformation• Supporting continuing technologydevelopment and sustained R&D efforts toadvance the cost and efficiency improvementsoutlined above• Improving international collaboration to allowfor accelerated learning and knowledge transferto emerging and developing countriesAchieving the ambitious deployment goals setand overcoming existing barriers will requiretargeted action all along the PV value chain (i.e.raw materials, module technologies, balance ofsystem components), and throughout the lifecycleof product development from basic researchto demonstration and deployment. It will alsorequire measures fostering technologies enablinga large-scale deployment of PV, such as energystorage and grid integration technologies. Thissection presents a set of key actions intendedto create an effective policy framework that willdirectly or indirectly support successful large-scale PV deployment. More detailed actions canbe identified for the coming decade, which is thecritical time period for policy action in order forPV to achieve the vision outlined in this roadmap.A number of important issues will remain relevantbeyond 2030.Regulatory framework and support incentivesThis roadmap recommends the following actions: MilestonesSet long-term targets, supported by a transparent and predictableregulatory framework to build confidence for PV investments. Theregulatory framework should specifically include financial incentiveschemes to bridge the transition phase until PV has reached fullcompetitiveness, and ensure priority access to grids over the longer term.Begin 2010. Phase-outdepends on when PVbecomes fully competitivein a specific country.Design and implement a regulatory framework to facilitate large-scale PV grid integration, including targeted Smart Grid baseddemonstrations for areas of high PV implementation.Complete by 2020.Policy frameworks:Roadmap actions and milestonesSet predictable financial incentive schemes and regulatory frameworksThe high capital investments for PV installationsand manufacturing plants require clear, long-term, effective and predictable financialincentives (e.g. feed-in tariffs, feed-in premiums,portfolio standards, fiscal incentives, investmentsubsidies) and framework conditions (e.g. accessto grids) for the next decade at least to providesufficient investor confidence. Governmentsshould establish long-term PV targets that canbe implemented by such financial incentiveschemes for market introduction and deployment.These schemes must be designed with long-termenergy policy objectives in mind and should besteadily reduced over time to foster innovationand the development of the most cost-efficienttechnologies. As PV reaches grid parity, economicincentive schemes should evolve towards a market-enabling framework based on net metering andpriority access to the grid.Providing economic support alone, however, is notenough. Non-economic barriers can significantlyhamper the effectiveness of support policies.Administrative hurdles such as planning delaysand restrictions, lack of co-ordination betweendifferent authorities, long lead times in obtainingauthorisations and connection to the grid, arekey barriers for PV deployment. Governmentsshould address administrative barriers by ensuringcoherence and co-ordination between differentauthorities and implementing time-effectiveand streamlined administrative authorisationprocedures for PV systems.
  • 28 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyTo date, most PV incentive schemes concentrateon grid-connected systems. Stand-alone and ruralPV systems are rarely supported, despite the factthat they may offer the most cost-efficient solution(e.g., replacing diesel generation). Dedicated andsustainable strategies to support off-gridPV applications and services, in particular for ruralelectrification, need to be established. Schemesshould take into account non-economic barriersas well as the need for new financing and businessmodels, particularly in developing countries.Establish regulatory frameworks that facilitatelarge-scale PV grid integrationGiven its variable, non-dispatchable naturein distributed applications, PV presents newchallenges for grid integration. In most areas ofthe world, PV has not yet achieved an electricitygeneration share larger than 1%, and can currentlybe absorbed by existing grids without anyproblems. However, with an increasing numberof PV systems in place, interconnection and loadmanagement will become important issues. Gridaccessibility and integration challenges mayprevent PV from achieving this roadmap’s vision ifnot properly addressed in the short term. However,better grid planning and management also bringopportunities. For instance, PV can reduce criticalsummer load peaks in some regions, reducing theneed for high-cost peak generation capacity andnew transmission and distribution investments.In order to accomodate an increasing share ofvariable PV, a higher degree of system flexibilityis required. This will require new ways of thinkingabout how electricity is generated and distributedand the development of new technologiesthat make it simple, safe, and reliable for solarelectricity to feed into the grid. Flexibility16can beincreased both through market and transmission16 Flexibility refers to the amount of quickly dispatchablecapacity – generation, interconnection and storage – that isavailable to respond to fluctuations in supply and demand.Source: Empowering Renewable Energies – Options for FlexibleElectricity Systems, IEA 2008.optimisation measures. Market measures includeexpanding markets to smooth overall variabilityand implementing demand response measures thatbetter match demand with supply. Transmissionoptimisation measures include improvedinterconnection and adoption of advancedtransmission and management technologies,including smart grids and metering and enhancedenergy storage.Addressing the issue of grid integration will requiregovernments to act in the near-term, given thelong lead times between planning and investingin new grid infrastructure and technologies.Regulators should initiate long-term planningaimed at increasing system flexibility and gridmanagement. In areas with strong direct normalirradiation, planning the concurrent developmentof dispatchable CSP would allow for a largeramount of grid-connected PV.In areas with a planned high use of PV generation,government should foster and co-finance smartgrid demonstration systems, which would enablefaster large-scale deployment of PV.
  • 29Policy frameworks: Roadmap actions and milestonesMarket facilitation and transformationThis roadmap recommends the following actions: TimeframeEstablish internationally accepted standards and codes for PV productsand components to foster greater consumer adoption.2010-2020Identify new financing and business models for end-users and ruralelectrification to catalyse grid investments and storage solutions for thefull-scale integration of PV.2010-2020Enhance training, education and awareness for skilled workforce alongthe PV value chain; expand outreach to residential and commercialcustomers.2010-2025Establish standards and codesStandards, codes and certificates help createconfidence and better handling of PV products.It is not only a question of safety and qualityassurance but of improving the competitivenessof the industry by avoiding administrative hurdlesand reducing unit costs. Standards, codes andcertificates are needed for performance, energyrating and safety standards for PV modules andbuilding elements; for grid interconnection;for quality assurance guidelines all along thevalue chain; and for the reuse and recyclingof PV components. The development of aninternationally agreed upon set of codes andstandards will permit the increased deployment ofa variety of PV technologies.The IEA PVPS Implementing Agreement identifiedthe following priorities for the development ofstandard and codes:17i) PV industry internal standards for more efficientmanufacturingii) PV as power supplier in interconnection issuesiii) PV as “multifunctional” products, e.g. BIPV.17 see www.iea-pvps.orgFoster new financing and business modelsPV systems need considerable up-front investments,but once installed are low cost to operate. Highinitial investment costs are an important barrierfor residential and small commercial customersand for off-grid applications. Investment barriersrequire innovative and uncomplicated financingapproaches including the development of PV marketand business models aimed at end-user service andefficiency. Today, most incentives are provided toPV grid-connected systems; PV systems in high-efficiency isolated homes are often not rewarded.Addressing this gap will require a shift in businessmodels. One option that shows promise is thedevelopment of energy service companies (ESCOs)that own the system and provide an energy serviceto the end-user for a periodic fee. The user is notresponsible for the maintenance of the system andnever becomes the owner. Governments shouldexplore providing financial incentives to PV ESCOsfor on-grid and off-grid applications.The high cost of capital and limited access to fundsexacerbates the investment cost challenge in thedeveloping world. To overcome the barrier ofhigh capital costs and encourage the widespreaduse of PV in rural and remote communities,new implementation models for financingand operating PV systems are needed. Severalfinancing mechanisms are available (IEA PVPSTask 9, 2008):• Direct (cash) sales: The end-user immediatelybecomes owner of the system.• Credit sales: The end-user obtains a credit fromthe PV dealer or from a third-party institution(possibly through micro-credit initiatives).
  • 30 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyDepending on arrangements, the end-userultimately becomes the owner and the PVsystem can be used as collateral against theloan.• Hire (lease) purchase and a fee-for-servicemodel: The PV supplier/dealer or a financialintermediary leases the PV system to the end-user. At the end of the lease period, ownershipmay or may not be transferred to the end-user.Alternatively, a fee-for-service model based onan ESCO can also be applied.Governments can also address the investmentcost challenge by creating a market frameworkand/or mechanisms that foster investments ininnovative grid and storage technologies. Time-dependent electricity tariffs (higher at peak load insummer), capacity value markets and ancillary PVmarkets have all shown promise and merit furtherexploration and adoption as appropriate.Create a skilled PV workforceEfforts are needed to increase the number ofqualified workers for a growing solar industryalong the value chain and the lifecycle of PVproduct development, from research to systeminstallation and maintenance. A well-trainedworkforce is necessary to ensure technologydevelopment, quality installations, cost reductions,and consumer confidence in the reliability of solarinstallations. These activities should focus onbuilding the capacity of educational institutionsto respond to the increased demand for high-quality training for solar installers and codeofficials.18Governments are encouraged to providetraining and education to create a skilled PVworkforce along the full value chain. This involvesdeveloping outreach programmes that targetspecific professional groups (e.g., local governmentplanners, architects, home builders).18 For an example of a PV workforce training effort, see theUS Department of Energy’s Programme website at http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/education_training.htmlTechnology development and RD&DThis roadmap recommends the following actions: TimeframeIncrease public RD&D funding 2010-2020Ensure sustained RD&D funding in the long-term 2020-2040Develop and implement smart grids and grid management tools 2010-2030Develop and implement enhanced storage technologies From 2030 onIncrease public R&D funding and ensure sustained,long-term RD&D fundingPV comprises a set of technologies at differinglevels of maturity. All of them have significantpotential for improvement. Increased andsustained RD&D efforts are needed over the long-term in order to accelerate cost reductions andtransfer to industry of the current mainstreamtechnologies; develop and improve mid-term celland system technologies; and design and bringnovel concepts to industrialisation. SignificantRD&D is also needed at system level, specificallyin terms of improving the product requirementsfor building integration and minimising theenvironmental impacts related to a very large-scaledeployment of PV systems.The main short-term (S), mid-term (M) and long-term (L) R&D priorities for PV are:• Improve the technical performance and cost-efficiency of solar cells, modules, and systemcomponents, both for existing as well as fornew solar cell technologies (S-L)
  • 31Policy frameworks: Roadmap actions and milestones• Improve manufacturability of components andsystems for industry-scale production withsubstantial mass production and cost reductionpotential (including manufacturing plantdemonstration) by utilising economies of scaleand scope (S)• Design PV as a building material andarchitectural element that meets the technical,functional, and aesthetical requirements andcost targets (S-M)• Develop emerging technologies andnovel concepts with potentially significantperformance and/or cost advantages (M-L)• Apply life-cycle assessments and optimise theenvironmental impact of PV systems (M-L)• Develop and implement recycling solutions forthe various PV technologies (S-M)RD&D expenditures for PV have been increasingin recent years. However, they fall short inmatching the needs to achieve the vision of thisroadmap. Recent IEA analysis19suggests that RD&Dexpenditures in solar energy should increase by afactor of two to four in order to achieve the BLUEMap 2050 goals of reducing CO2emissions by 50%at global level.In the short-term it is crucial to increase publicRD&D funding to accelerate the PV deploymentprocess. This is in line with the recognition bythe IEA Ministers at their October 2009 meetingthat “[…] more effort should be made to increasesubstantially public-sector investments in research,development and demonstration of these [low-carbon] technologies, with a view to doubling suchinvestments by 2015”. In the long-term, beyond2020, an increasing involvement of the privatesector, also through the implementation ofinnovative public-private partnerships, will be keyto achieve the required RD&D funding levels.19 Global Gaps in Clean Energy Research, Development, andDemonstration, IEA 2009, prepared in Support of theMajor Economies Forum (MEF) Global Partnership by theInternational Energy Agency.Develop and implement smart grids and develop and applyenhanced energy storage technologiesJust as the original electricity grid system helpedfacilitate the industrial innovations of the20thcentury, an advanced “smart” grid will beneeded to support the low-carbon technologies ofthis century. The smart grid can provide a range ofbenefits to both end users and generators, includingthe ability to monitor and manage the bi-directionaltransport of electricity in a way that accommodatesthe non-dispatchable nature of PV generation thusenabling increased PV deployment. As previouslynoted, this aspect will become increasingly moreimportant as the amount of PV installed in regionalelectricity grids increases significantly above currentlevels. As such, the advancement of smart gridswill be instrumental to the widespread use of PVenvisioned in this roadmap.By using digital technology, the smart grid willenable the control of conventional generation alongwith demand-side management that respondsto the variable generation of PV. The smart gridwill allow for seamless implementation of storagetechnology that can act as a load in times of excessgeneration relative to demand and as an electricitygeneration source when demand is greater. Thesmart grid can also process real time meteorologicaldata that will allow the prediction of PV systemoutput, enabling it to be managed more likedispatchable generation.The generation profile of PV can also be combinedwith system design aspects for smart grids as newelectricity grids are built and existing grids aremaintained. By its nature, PV produces the majorityof its electricity during the summer, reasonablyaligning with the seasonal daily peak demand forelectricity. The ability of the smart grid to thenmonitor and manage the electricity flow at nodeswill allow for more accurate system sizing andneeds assessment. This could reduce system costs inimplementation and postpone investment in systemupgrades, allowing for better utilisation of currentelectricity system infrastructure.An advanced metering infrastructure that is part ofsmart grid deployment will also allow PV systemoperators, both small and large scale, to betterunderstand system operational characteristics.This will ensure proper maintenance and provideoperators with the ability to optimise electricityproduction.
  • 32 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyAfter 2030, when PV is expected to reach ashare of 5% of global electricity generation, thedevelopment and application of enhanced storagetechnologies will become increasingly importantas a strategy to meet the needs for flexibility andto minimise the impacts of the variable PV powerintegration into electricity grids. Sustained RD&Defforts in enhanced storage technologies such aspumped hydro, sodium sulfur cells, redox flowbatteries, Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES),electric double-layer capacitors, Li-ion batteries,Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage(SMES) and flywheel systems will all contribute toachieving these ambitious goals.International collaborationThis roadmap recommends the following actions: MilestonesExpand international R&D collaboration, making best use of nationalcompetencies.Begin in 2010 and continueDevelop new mechanisms to support exchange of technology anddeployment of best practices with developing economies.Begin in 2010 and continueAssess and express the value of PV energy in economic development,particularly with respect to rural electrification.2010-2020Encourage multilateral development banks (MDBs) to target clean energydeployment.2010-2020 and beyondExpand international RD&D collaborationGreater co-ordination is needed between nationalPV energy RD&D actors across the globe. Increasedcollaboration among nations will ensure thatimportant issues are addressed according toareas of national expertise, taking advantageof existing RD&D activities and infrastructure.Long-term harmonisation of PV energy researchagendas is also needed, as is the establishmentof international testing facilities for materials andsystem components. One example of internationalPV energy technology collaboration is the IEAPhotovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS).This Implementing Agreement is one of 42 suchinitiatives covering the complete spectrum ofenergy technology development. The PVPSincludes technology experts from 21 countries, theEuropean Union and the European PhotovoltaicIndustry Association (EPIA), who together havedeveloped a research programme focused onaccelerating the development and deployment ofPV energy. Elements of this programme can helplay the foundation for greater collaboration amongOECD and non-OECD countries.Develop mechanisms to support best practicesin developing economiesVast PV resources exist in many countries wheredeployment has not yet begun to approach itspotential. Many emerging economies – notablyChina and India – are becoming important globalplayers in PV, both in terms of installed capacityand in manufacturing. China has already becomea major PV manufacturer, with more than 15%share of global PV cell production. However, fasteconomic growth, limited energy supply, andabundant conventional resources are encouragingcountries such as China and India to look first toconventional energy supply. Without sufficientincentives and capacity to do otherwise, thesecountries are likely to follow a carbon-intensivedevelopment path.OECD governments are encouraged to assistdeveloping economies in the early deployment of
  • 33Policy frameworks: Roadmap actions and milestonesrenewable energy. The exchange of best practicein terms of PV technology, system integration,support mechanisms, environmental protection,and the dismantling of deployment barriers areimportant areas. Dynamic mechanisms will berequired to achieve successful technology andinformation transfer.Assess and express the value of PV energyin economic developmentThe clear expression of the value of PV energy, interms of climate protection and other developmentchallenges such as rural electrification is importantfor accelerated PV deployment. Benefits in termsof innovation, employment and environmentalprotection should be accurately quantified andshared with developing economy partners,particularly in terms of their ability to contributetowards the fundamental questions of adequateenergy provision and poverty alleviation.Low-carbon rural electrification in developing regions: the role of PVApproximately 1.6 billion people around the world do not have access to a regular supply ofelectricity, and as a result are often deprived of electric lighting, adequate clean water supplies,and other basic services (World Bank, 2010). Most of these people live in remote rural areas thatare difficult or uneconomical to reach with conventional electricity infrastructure. In many areaswithout access to an electricity grid, inefficient and high-polluting diesel generators are used forbasic power needs.Deploying PV technology in isolated or under-developed areas can be a cost-effective option forclean electricity production. PV is attractive as a distributed energy source to provide basic powerservices, and can better the lives of people in many ways, including supplying clean electricity tolight homes or schools; running medical refrigerators; powering small businesses; and pumping orpurifying water. Further enhancing PV’s appeal as a solution for rural electrification is the fact thatmany developing countries are situated in climates that are extremely well suited for harnessingsolar energy throughout the year.In 2005 the G8 agreed to a Plan of Action for achieving the Millennium Development Goals, withclean energy now playing a more central role. Many multilateral development banks and bilateralagencies have since increased financing for renewable energy projects, including some designed tobring PV technology to rural areas in developing countries.Though financing for PV programmes at the national level principally comes from internationalsources, many emerging economies have earmarked their own funds for development, includingrural electrification, by levying tariffs on grid electrification or by taxing other energy sources.Market mechanisms like Certified Emissions Reductions produced through the Clean DevelopmentMechanism can further augment project funding. When rural PV projects and programmes fall shortof their goals, it has often been due to a lack of skilled personnel at various levels – from governmentministry and implementing agency staff to installation and maintenance workers. This lack of localcapacity can usually be addressed if appropriate measures are identified during a project’s earlystages. With effective co-ordination and planning, PV applications in rural areas can improve thelives of hundreds of thousands of people at a reasonable cost. They can be implemented on a local orregional scale, depending on the size of the programme and the resources available to carry it out.
  • 34 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyEncourage international aid providers to targetclean energy developmentMultilateral development banks are an importantsource of financing for joint development efforts.Financing facilities can be designed on a case-by-case basis to support differing needs. Since 1993,the World Bank (WB) and the Global EnvironmentalFacility (GEF) have supported projects to improvecommercial markets and financing for renewableenergy technologies in developing countries. InChina, from 1999 to 2007, the WB and the GEFprovided USD 40 million in grants and loans tofund market surveys, key capital investments,and the development of product standards andcertification. This effort played an important role insupporting the sale of PV systems to approximately400 000 rural households and institutions duringthe eight-year period, and helped make China thetop producer of solar equipment and componentsin the world today.20Bilateral development banksare also an important source of developmentfinance. The German state-owned Kreditanstalt fuerWiederaufbau Bank (KfW), for example, investedUSD 340 million (EUR 230 million) in renewableenergy projects in developing economies in 2008.These sorts of targeted solar aid projects shouldbe expanded to cover additional countries andregions with strong solar potential.20 World Bank (2008), “Solar Systems for 400,000 RuralHouseholds in China,” World Bank, Washington, D.C.
  • 35Conclusion: Actions for stakeholders and next stepsThis roadmap has responded to the G8 andother government leaders’ requests for moredetailed analysis regarding the growth pathwayfor PV energy, an important GHG mitigationtechnology. It describes approaches and specifictasks regarding PV research, development,and deployment; financing mechanisms; gridintegration; legal and regulatory frameworks;public engagement; and internationalcollaboration. It provides regional and end-usesector projections for PV deployment from 2010to 2050. The roadmap identifies the next decadeas a critical time window in order to accelerate thedevelopment and deployment of PV technologies.Achieving this roadmap’s vision will require astrong, long-term and balanced policy effort inthe next decade to allow for optimal technologyprogress, cost reduction and ramp-up of industrialmanufacturing for mass deployment. Priorityactions for the next ten years include:• Provide long-term targets and supportingpolicies to build the needed confidence forinvestments in manufacturing capacity anddeployment of PV systems.• Implement effective and cost-efficient PVincentive schemes, which will have to betransitional and decrease over time, inorder to foster innovation and technologicalimprovement.• Develop and implement appropriate financingschemes, in particular for rural electrificationand other applications in developing countries.• Increase R&D efforts to reduce costs and ensurePV readiness for rapid deployment, while alsosupporting longer-term innovations.The table below details actions and milestones to aidpolicy makers, industry and power-system actors intheir efforts to successfully implement PV energy.Conclusion:Actions for stakeholders and next stepsStakeholder Action itemsNationalgovernments• Establish market support mechanisms to achieve grid competitiveness – to bephased out over time.• Develop regulatory framework preparing large-scale integration of PV into thegrid.• Facilitate internalisation of external costs of energy for a more level playing field.• Streamline building codes and standards for PV products and interconnectionrules.• Set energy standards that account for solar building regulations and obligations.• Increase R&D funding to accelerate cost reductions and efficiency gains.• Improve educational/outreach programmes on environmental advantages of PV.Universities andother researchinstitutions• Identify PV educational development/training needs for important areas likesmall-scale system installation and grid connection; develop training plans/grants for universities.• Develop national PV technology RD&D roadmap that identifies pathways toachieve critical longer-term technology breakthroughs.Internationaldevelopmentministries• Provide aid for PV capacity building in developing economies, includingdistributed electricity planning, site identification and development, etc.• Ensure maximum efficacy of international aid for rural electrification in keyregions by co-ordinating with other donors (multilateral and bilateral).Multilateraldevelopmentagencies
  • 36 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyStakeholder Action itemsPV industry• Support training and education for skilled workforce along the PV value chain;technology outreach to target audiences/stakeholders.• Accelerate technical improvements, industrial processes, standardisation andscaling up of manufacturing.• Pursue increased performance for PV cell/module technologies and Balance-of-System components.Utilities andother marketstakeholders• Develop business models for end-users and rural electrification.• Streamline building codes and standards for PV products and interconnectionrules.• Support training and education for skilled workforce along the PV value chain;technology outreach to target audiences/stakeholders.• Deploy smart grid technologies and grid management tools.State, provincialand localgovernments• Support new national regulatory framework to enable large-scale integration ofPV into the grid.• Collaborate across jurisdictions to reform local building codes and standards tofacilitate PV implementation and integration.Non-governmentalorganisations• Monitor progress toward PV development and policy milestones and publishresults regularly to keep government and industry on track.• Identify and publish information on regulatory and bureaucratic barriers to PVdeployment.The PV roadmap is meant to be a process, onethat evolves to take into account new technologydevelopments, policies and internationalcollaborative efforts. The roadmap has beendesigned with milestones that the internationalcommunity can use to ensure that PV energydevelopment efforts are on track to achieve theGHG emissions reductions that are required by2050. As such, the IEA, together with government,industry and NGO stakeholders will reportregularly on the progress that has been achievedtoward this roadmap’s vision. For more informationabout the PV roadmap inputs and implementation,including additional analysis that informed theconclusions in this document, visit www.iea.org/roadmaps.
  • 37Appendix I. References and roadmaps consultedBanerjee, R. (2008), “Renewable Power generation in India: Establishing Feasible Targets,” IIASApresentation, 4 June 2008; access at www.me.iitb.ac.in/~rangan/professional_activity/Renpower.pdf.Bank Sarasin (2008), Solarstudie.Business Council for Sustainable Energy (BCSE) (2004), The Australian Photovoltaic Industry Roadmap.Chinese Renewable Energy Industry Association (CREIA) (2009), data accessed via website athttp://en.creia.net/.DOE 2008, Solar Energy Technologies Programme – Multi-Year Programme Plan (2008 – 2012).EPIA / Greenpeace (2008), Solar Generation V.European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) (2004), Roadmap.EPIA (2009), Set for 2020; A Mainstream Power Source in Europe by 2020.European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) / Greenpeace (2008), Energy [r]evolution.EREC / Greenpeace (2009), Working for the Climate.European Commission (EC) (2007), Energy for a Changing World – An Energy Policy for Europe –the Need for Action.EC (2007), Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan).European Photovoltaic Technology Platform (2007), A Strategic Research Agenda for Photovoltaic SolarEnergy Technology.European Photovoltaic Technology Platform (2009), Implementation Plan for a Strategic Research Agendafor Photovoltaic Solar Energy Technology.Frankl P., Menichetti E. and Raugei M. (2008), Technical Data, Costs and Life Cycle Inventories of PVApplications. NEEDS project (New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability), report preparedfor the European Commission, available at www.needs-project.org.Fthenakis V. et al. (2008), Emissions from Photovoltaic Life Cycles.Greentech Media (2009), Development of PV Electricity Prices, Regional Differences and ExpectationsTowards Grid Parity.International Energy Agency (IEA) (2003), Renewables for Power Generation, OECD/IEA, Paris.IEA (2008), Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 – Scenarios and Strategies to 2050, OECD/IEA, Paris.IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Implementing Agreement (PVPS), Annual Reports (2008, 2009).IEA PVPS Task 9, (2008), Task 9 report: Renewable Energy Services for Developing Countries – In support ofthe Millennium Development Goals: Recommended Practice & Key Lessons, available at www.iea-pvps.org/tasks/task9.htm.IEA PVPS (2009), Trends in Photovoltaic Applications – Survey Report of Selected IEA countries between1992 and 2008 (reports published 1999 to 2009).Jäger-Waldau, A. (2008), PV Status Report 2008 – Research, Solar Cell Production and Market Implementationof Photovoltaics.Moehlecke, A. and Zanesco, I. (2007), Pilot Plant to Develop Cost Effective Photovoltaic Modules,Proceedings of the 22th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition, 2007, Milan, Italy.National Energy Administration (2009), China Energy Development Report 2009.Appendix I.References and roadmaps consulted
  • 38 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyNavigant (2009), The PV Industry – Past, Present and Future.New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organisation (NEDO) (2004), PV Roadmap towards2030 (PV2030) – For realisation of mass introduction of PV systems, Tokyo.NEDO (2009), PV2030+, Tokyo.Neij L. (2007), “Cost Development of Energy Technologies – an Analysis based on Experience Curves,”NEEDS project (New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability), report prepared for theEuropean Commission, available at www.needs-project.org.New Energy Finance 2009, Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2009.Photovoltaic Technology Research Advisory Council (PV-TRAC) (2005), A Vision for Photovoltaic Technologyfor 2030 and Beyond.PV Employment (2009), Solar Photovoltaic Employment in Europe, Brussels.PV Policy Group (2006), European Best Practice Report, Brussels.Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) (2004), The U.S. Photovoltaics Industry Roadmap through 2030and Beyond, Washington, DC.Sicheng Wang (2008), China PV Development Report 2008.United States Department of Energy (DOE) (2007), Solar America Initiative – A Plan for the IntegratedResearch, Development, and Market Transformation of Solar Energy Technologies.Varella, F.K.O.M, Cavaliero, C.K.N. and Silva, E.P. (2008), “Energia Solar Fotovoltaica no Brasil:Incentivos Regulatórios,” Revista Brasileira de Energia, Vol. 14, No. 1, 2008, pp. 9-22.Varella, F.K.O.M, Cavaliero, C.K.N. and Silva, E.P. (2009), “A survey of the current photovoltaic equipmentindustry in Brazil,” Renewable Energy, pp. 1801-1805.World Bank (2010), 2010 World Development Report, Washington, DC; viewed December 8, 2009 athttp://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDR2010/Resources/WDR10-Main-Messages.pdf.Zweibel, K., Mason, J. and Fthenakis, V. (2008), “Grand Solar Plan,” Scientific American, January 2008.
  • 39Appendix II. List of relevant websitesInternational Energy AgencyInternational Energy Agency (IEA) www.iea.orgIEA PVPS Implementing Agreement www.iea-pvps.orgIEA Committee on Energy Research andTechnology (CERT)www.iea.org/about/stancert.htmIEA Working Party on Renewable EnergyTechnologies (REWP)www.iea.org/about/rewp.htmIEA Renewable Energy Implementing Agreements www.iea.org/Textbase/techno/technologies/renew.aspIEA PVPS Links to international organisations www.iea-pvps.org/links/org_int.htmIEA PVPS links to web resources www.iea-pvps.org/links/resource.htmOtherAssociation PV Cycle www.pvcycle.orgEuropean Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) www.epia.orgEPIA SET for 2020 www.setfor2020.euEuropean PV Sunrise www.pvsunrise.euISET www.iset.uni-kassel.deInstitute for Energy Diversification and Saving ofSpain – IDAEwww.idae.esPV Accept www.pvaccept.de/eng/index.htmPV Upscale – Urban Scale PV Systems www.pvupscale.orgSolar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) www.seia.orgAustralian PV Association www.apva.org.auJapan Photovoltaic Energy Association www.jpea.gr.jpAmerican Council on Renewable Energy www.acore.orgSEMI www.semi.orgCanadian Solar Industries Association www.cansia.caChinese Renewable Energy Industries Association www.creia.netTaiwan Photovoltaic Industry Association www.tpvia.orgMalaysian Photovoltaic Industry Association www.mpia.org.myInternational Photovoltaic Equipment Association www.ipvea.orgAppendix II.List of relevant websites
  • 40 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyWorkshop participantsGuido Agostinelli Good EnergiesJenny Chase New Energy FinanceRobert Clover HSBCChristophe Debouit NEDOLouis Delaittre Thinfilm UnisolarBenoit Doin ENEL GreenpowerAntoine Duvauchelle Good EnergiesFrancisco Garcia Lorenzo First SolarChristy Herig SEPAWinfried Hoffmann EPIAJorge Huacuz Instituto de Investigaciones ElectricasDavid Jordan Australian PV ConsultingTakashi Kawabata METITom Kimbis DOEAndrew Kinross Navigant ConsultingKevin Lynn DOEStefan Nowak IEA PVPSGianni Operto Good EnergiesHeinz Ossenbrink EC JRC RE UnitMilan Rosina GDF SuezErik Sauar RECWim Sinke PV Platform WG3 ResearchMakoto Tanaka Sanyo Electric Co.Francesca Tilli GSECornelia Viertl BMURoberto Vigotti OMERudolf Zauner VERBUNDAppendix III.List of workshop participants and reviewers
  • 41Appendix III. List of workshop participants and reviewersAdditional reviewersPeter Ahm PA EnergyFabrizzio Bonemazzi ENEL GreenpowerRob Brandon and Mary Preville CanadaHubert Fechner Fachhochschule Technikum WienArnulf Jäger–Waldau EC JRC RE UnitGerardo Montanino GSEStathis Peteves EC JRC Energy systems evaluation unitBrian Robertson SunworksNadine Roemann SCHOTT Solar AGNaoki Sakai and Anil Terway Asian Development BankJigar Shah Carbon War RoomJens Windeleff Danish Energy agencyMultiple reviewers DOE
  • 42 Technology Roadmaps  Solar photovoltaic energyAC Alternating-currenta-Si Amorphous silicona-Si/µc-Si Micromorph siliconBIPV Building-integrated PV systemsCAES Compressed air energy storageCCS Carbon capture and storageCdTe Cadmium TellurideCIGS Copper-Indium-Gallium-DiselenideCIS Copper-Indium-DiselenideCPV Concentrating photovoltaicsc-Si Crystalline siliconCSP Concentrating solar powerDC Direct-currentEPIA European Photovoltaic Industry AssociationESCOs Energy service companiesGBI Generation Based IncentivesKfW Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau BankMDBs Multilateral development banksPV PhotovoltaicR&D Research and developmentRD&D Research, demonstration and developmentRED IEA Renewable Energy DivisionSAI Solar America InitiativeSET Strategic energy technologySHC Solar heating and coolingSMES Superconducting magnetic energy storageUSD United States dollarAppendix IV.Abbreviations, acronyms and units
  • 43Appendix IV. Abbreviations, acronyms and unitsUnitsGt Gigatonnesg/W Grams/wattGW Gigawatt = 109wattskWh Kilowatt-hourkW KilowattMW MegawattMWh Megawatt-hourTWh Terawatt-hourW Wattμm Micrometre
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