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  • In order to know we are making progress on scientific problems like open-domain QA well-defined challenges help demonstrate we can solve concrete & difficult tasks. As you might know Jeopardy! Is a long-standing, well-regarded and highly challenging Television quiz show in the US that demands human contestants to quickly understand and answer richly expressed natural language questions over a staggering array of topics.The Jeopardy! Challenge uniquely provides a palpable, compelling and notable way to drive the technology of Question Answering along key dimensionsIf you are familiar with the quiz show it asks an I incredibly broad range of questions over a huge variety of topics.In a single round there is a grid of 6 Categories and for each category 5 rows with increasing $ values. Once a cell is chosen by 1 of three players, A question, or what is often called a Clue is revealed.Here you see some example questions. Jeopardy uses complex and often subtle language to describe what is being asked. To win you have to be extraordinarily precise. You must deliver the exact answer – no more and no less – it is not good enough for it be somewhere in the top 2, 10 or 20 documents – you must know it exactly and get it in first place – otherwise no credit – in fact you loose points. You must demonstrate Accurate Confidences -- That is -- you must know what you know – if you “buzz –in” and then get it wrong you lose the $$ value of the question. And you have to do this all very quickly – deeply analyze huge volumes of content, consider many possible answers, compute your confidence and buzz in – all in just seconds.As we shall see compete with human champions at this game represents a Grand Challenge in Automatic Open-Domain Question Answering.
  • Computer programs are natively explicit and exacting in their calculations over numbers and symbols.But Natural Language - -the words and phrases we humans use to communicate with one another -- is implicit -- the exact meaning is not completely and exactly indicated -- but instead is highly dependent on the context -- what has been said before, the topic, how it is being discussed -- factually, figuratively, fictionally etc.Moreover, natural language is often imprecise – it does not have to treat a subject with numerical precision…humans naturally interact and operate all the time with different degrees of uncertainty and fuzzy associations between words and concepts. We use huge amounts of background knowledge to reconcile and interpret what we read.Consider these examples….it is one thing to build a database table to exactly answer the question “Where is someone born?”. The computer looks up the name in one column and is programmed to know that the other column contains the birth place. STRUCUTRED information, like this database table, is designed for computers to make simple comparisons and to be exactly as accurate as the data entered into the database. Natural language is created and used by humans for humans. A reason we call natural language “Unstructured” is because it lacks the exact structure and meaning that computer programs typically use to answer questions. Understanding what is being represented is a whole other challenge for computer programs .Consider this sentence It implies that Albert Einstein was born in Ulm – but there is a whole lot the computer has to do to figure that out any degree of certainty - it has to understand sentence structure, parts of speech, the possible meaning of words and phrases and how they related to the words and phrases in the question. What does a remembrance, a water color and an Otto have to do with where someone was born.Consider another question in the Jeopardy Style … X ran this? And this potentially answer-bearing sentence. Read the Sentence…Does this sentence answer the question for Jack Welch - -what does “ran” have to do with leadership or painting. How would a computer confidently infer from this sentence that Jack Welch ran GE – might be easer to deduce that he was at least a painter there.
  • Human performance is one of the things that makes the Jeopardy! Challenge so compelling. The best humans are very, very good at this task. In this chart, each dot corresponds to actual historical Jeopardy! games and represents the performance of the winner of those games. We refer to this cluster of dots as the “Winners Cloud”. For each dot, the X-axis, along the bottom of the graph, represents the percentage of questions in a game that the winning player got a chance to ANSWER. These were the questions he or she was confident enough and fast enough to ring-in or buzz in for FIRST. The Y-axis, going up along the left of the graph, represents the winning player’s PRECISION – that is, the percentage of those questions answered the player got RIGHT. CORemember, if a player gets a question wrong then they lose the $ value of the clue and their competitors still get a chance to answer or rebound. But what we humans, tend to do really, really well is – confidently know what we know – computing an accurate confidence turns out to be key ability for winning at Jeopardy! Looking at the center of the green cloud, what you see is that, on average, WINNERS are confident enough and fast enough to answer nearly 50% of the questions in a game and do somewhere between 85% and 95% precision on those questions. That is, they get 85-95% of the ones they answer RIGHT. The red dots represents Ken Jennings's performance. Ken won 74 consecutive games against qualified players. He was confident and fast enough to acquire 60% and even up to 80% of a game’s questions from his competitors and still do 85% and 95% precision on average.Good Jeopardy! players are remarkable in their breadth, precision, confidence and speed. 

Sis sat 1000 josh dreller Sis sat 1000 josh dreller Presentation Transcript

  • IBM’s Watson: Is the World’s Trivia Champion the Future of Search?
    Josh Dreller
    VP Media Technology & Analytics
    Fuor Digital @fuordigital
  • Two Types of Innovation
    Incremental – improving current projects and advancing them in a linear fashion
    Grand Challenges – pushing the limits of science
    Must be Difficult (has to be a challenge)
    Must be Inspiring
    Irresistible Vision – “just has to be done”
  • Previous IBM Grand Challenges
  • Open Question Answering
    The way normal humans communicate
    Natural Language – very ambiguous, but at the heart of human intelligence
    Last night I shot an
    elephant in my pajamas.
    How it got into my
    pajamas I’ll never know.
  • The Ultimate Advancement:Computers that can communicate with humans in Natural Language
  • What Can Search Learn From Watson?
    The only way to push forward is to take huge leaps and look for self-imposed challenges even if we can’t prove out the business case right now
    What kind of Grand Challenges could Search create?
    A non-spammable Search Engine?
    No need for Search Engine Optimization?
    ??
    8
  • The Jeopardy! Challenge: A compelling and notable way to drive and measure the technology of automatic Question Answering along 5 Key Dimensions
    Broad/Open Domain
    $200
    If you're standing, it's the direction you should look to check out the wainscoting.
    Complex Language
    $1000
    Of the 4 countries in the world that the U.S. does not have diplomatic relations with, the one that’s farthest north
    High Precision
    $800
    In cell division, mitosis splits the nucleus & cytokinesis splits this liquid cushioning the nucleus
    Accurate
    Confidence
    High
    Speed
  • Jeopardy Reaction
    Not too inspired at first
    Weren’t interested in a circus sideshow
    2009, IBM setup a moch-studio at their New York research facility
    Sparring matches with ex-Jeopardy winners
    Eventually saw the potential and thought it was something special
  • A Very Simple Question for a Computer
    In (( 12,546,798 * P ) ^ 2) / 34,567.46 = ?
    Greater than or less than 1?
    50/50 Shot
    = .00885
  • Real Language is Real Hard
    Chess
    A finite, mathematically well-defined search space
    Limited number of moves and states
    Grounded in explicit, unambiguous mathematical rules
    Human Language
    Ambiguous, contextual and implicit
    Grounded only in human cognition
    Seemingly infinitenumber of ways to
    express the same meaning
  • The Opposite of Current Computer Language
    Questions not designed for a computer to answer
    Slang
    Crafty questions
    Shorthand
    Rhyme
    Regionalism
    Anagrams
    Complex Language!
  • Structured vs. Unstructured Data
    Where was Einstein born?
    Structured
    Unstructured
    One day, from among his city views of Ulm, Otto chose a watercolor to send to Albert Einstein as a remembrance of Einstein´s birthplace.
  • Common Sense Knowledge Base
    An ontology of classes and individuals
    Parts and materials of objects
    Properties of objects (such as color and size)
    Functions and uses of objects
    Locations of objects and layouts of locations
    Locations of actions and events
    Durations of actions and events
    Preconditions of actions and events
    Effects (post conditions) of actions and events
    Subjects and objects of actions
    Behaviors of devices
    Stereotypical situations or scripts
    Human goals and needs
    Emotions
    Plans and strategies
    Story themes
    Contexts
    16
    Can a can CanCan?
  • What Can Search Learn From Watson?
    We need to focus on what computers aren’t good at, not what they are good at
    Keywords and Links are not savvy enough. Natural language is key to a next generation search engine
    Most of human knowledge is kept in unstructured data sources or based on common sense context
    17
  • The DeepQA Project
    Dr. David Ferrucci
    25-30 full time
    researchers from
    many disciplines.
    2007-2011
    Millions of dollars
    Post Jeopardy implications
  • Speed Results
    Deployed Watson on 2,880 IBM POWER 750 computer cores
    Went from 2 hours per question on a single CPU to an average ofjust 3 seconds – fast enough to compete with the best.
  • Example Question
    Related Content
    (Structured & Unstructured)
    Keywords: 1698, comet,
    paramour, pink, …
    AnswerType(comet discoverer)
    Date(1698)
    Took(discoverer, ship)
    Called(ship, Paramour Pink)

    Primary
    Search
    Question
    Analysis
    Candidate Answer Generation

    Temporal
    Taxonomic
    Lexical
    Spatial
    [0.58 0 -1.3 … 0.97]
    Isaac Newton
    [0.71 1 13.4 … 0.72]
    Wilhelm Tempel
    [0.12 0 2.0 … 0.40]
    HMS Paramour
    Edmond Halley (0.85)
    Christiaan Huygens (0.20)
    Peter Sellers (0.05)
    [0.84 1 10.6 … 0.21]
    Christiaan Huygens
    [0.33 0 6.3 … 0.83]
    Halley’s Comet
    [0.21 1 11.1 … 0.92]
    Edmond Halley
    Merging &
    Ranking
    [0.91 0 -8.2 … 0.61]
    Pink Panther
    [0.91 0 -1.7 … 0.60]
    Peter Sellers
    Evidence
    Retrieval

    Evidence
    Scoring
    IN 1698, THIS COMET DISCOVERER TOOK A SHIP CALLED THE PARAMOUR PINK ON THE FIRST PURELY SCIENTIFIC SEA VOYAGE
  • Confidence is Key
    Watson only rings in if it can reach a statistically significant confidence in time
    Some questions take longer than others
    Some questions will be able to answer less confident than others
    Watson manages risk in betting based on confidence
  • Embarrassingly Parallel Computing
    Def: “Little or no effort is required to separate the problem into a number of parallel tasks”
    Works on many algorithms at once and comes back together with confidence scores.
    different from distributed computing problems (such as Google’s MapReduce) that require communication between tasks, especially communication of intermediate results.
  • What Can Search Learn From Watson?
    We can’t be bound by the constraints of current technology
    Two fold process of first coming up with answers then vetting them with more evidence
    Ideas like Parallel Processing will allow us to jump ahead
    24
  • Ken Jennings & Brad Rutter
  • Top human players are remarkably good.
    Computers?
    The Best Human Performance: Our Analysis Reveals the Winner’s Cloud
    Each dot represents an actual historical human Jeopardy! game
    Winning Human Performance
    Grand Champion Human Performance
    2007 QA Computer System
    More Confident
    Less Confident
    27
  • DeepQA: Incremental Progress in Precision and Confidence 6/2007-11/2010
    Now Playing in the Winners Cloud
    11/2010
    4/2010
    10/2009
    5/2009
    12/2008
    Precision
    8/2008
    5/2008
    12/2007
    Baseline
  • Confidence Bar
  • What Can Search Learn From Watson?
    Confidence bar would be a great addition to SERPs
    We must benchmark what is “good” and then aim higher
    These things take time (and money)
    30
  • TJ Watson Research CenterYorktown, NYTwo Games: Aired February 14-16, 2011
  • The End – Humans Win
  • Financial Industry
    Generates large amounts of data and growing 70% per year
    Not just numbers, but all info that would influence the biz landscape (news, articles, blogs, etc)
    Recent financial crisis shows failures of lack of understanding in interdependencies
  • DeepQA in Continuous Evidence-Based Diagnostic Analysis
    Considers and synthesizes a broad range of evidence improving quality, reducing cost
    Symptoms
    Diagnosis Models
    Meds
    Symp
    Fam
    Hist
    Find
    Confidence
    Renal failure
    Family History
    Patient History
    UTI
    Medications
    Tests/Findings
    Diabetes
    Influenza
    Notes/Hypotheses
    hypokalemia
    esophogitis
    Most Confident Diagnosis: Diabetes
    Most Confident Diagnosis: UTI
    Most Confident Diagnosis: Influenza
    Most Confident Diagnosis: Diabetes and Esophogitis
    Huge Volumes of Texts, Journals, References, DBs etc.
  • What Can Search Learn From Watson?
    Even the most daunting task can be overcome
    It’s not company versus company, it’s stretching human knowledge
    How can search engines help other industries
    37
  • Sources
    “What is Watson?” presentation by Adam Lally, IBM Research
    • Jeopardy website with videos: http://www.jeopardy.com/minisites/watson/
    • NYTimes article: “What Is I.B.M.’s Watson?http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/magazine/20Computer-t.html?_r=2&ref=opinion
    Wired magazine:“IBM’s Watson Supercomputer Wins Practice Jeopardy Round”http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2011/01/ibm-watson-jeopardy/#
    More technical: AI magazine “Building Watson: An Overview of the DeepQA Project”http://www.stanford.edu/class/cs124/AIMagzine-DeepQA.pdf
  • Thank You
    39