Presentation: Video killed the Radio Star. Will Mobile Kill the Desktop?

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Mobile has fundamentally changed how people interact with the Internet and influenced media companies and advertisers to shift their business models to leverage the mobile-first approaches of Google, …

Mobile has fundamentally changed how people interact with the Internet and influenced media companies and advertisers to shift their business models to leverage the mobile-first approaches of Google, Facebook and Twitter. The proliferation of mobile advertising and commerce will continue in 2014, but will it come at the expense of desktop search engine marketing? Join CRT Capital Analyst Neil Doshi in a look at a proprietary survey of 1,700 Twitter users. He will share recent insights gleaned from the survey that can help brands capture the attention of Twitter's mostly mobile users.

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Neil Doshi, Managing Director and Senior Equity, CRT

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  • Amazon is arguably the biggest winner in the ecommerce 1.0 era, and to a certain extent, defined the era. T
    he company has a phenomenal record of growth since its inception in 1994.
    The only reason we chart its growth since 1998 is that Amazon’s early growth rates were literally off the chart.
    Investor returns are similarly impressive, and are really of a totally different character than anything else in the Internet sector—with stock appreciation measured in the thousands of percentage points.

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  • 1. Search Insider Summit 2013 Addressing the Mobile Opportunity December 11, 2013 Neil A. Doshi Managing Director, Internet Research 415.762.4880 | ndoshi@crtllc.com @neildoshi Robert J. Coolbrith Vice President, Internet Research 415.762.4890 | rcoolbrith@crtllc.com For important disclosures, please see slide 52.
  • 2. Agenda  Overview  CRT’s Online Advertising Forecasts  Twitter – Product Overview  CRT’s Proprietary Twitter User Survey Page 2
  • 3. Internet Access Before 2007… PC/Mac Page 3 3
  • 4. Internet Access in 2010… Smartphone Page 4 4
  • 5. Internet Access Today… Smartphone Page 5 5
  • 6. Growth In Smartphones ► 1 out of 7 people in the world will have a Smartphone by the end of this year ► We expect Smartphones to grow around 47% this year and 35% next year ► Android will have dominant share for the forseeable future ► We expect Android share of new units to grow from 49% in 2011 to 81% in 2014 ► iOS share should come down, from 19% in 2011 to 14% in 2014 Source: IDC, CRT Capital Group LLC estimates Page 6 6
  • 7. Growth In Tablets ► We expect tablets to grow 50% in 2013 this year to 177M units world wide ► Apple should still have the leading market share at 45%, but Android is gaining ► By 2014, we expect Android to have ~55% market share in tablets Source: CRT Capital Group LLC estimates, IDC Page 7 7
  • 8. Ad Spend Allocation vs. Time Spend Across Platform ► Time Spent and Ad Spend are similarly allocated across TV and Radio ► Ad Spend on Print is greater than Time Spent on Print ► We believe Print will continue to be a source of Ad Funds for mobile 50% 45% 46% 43% 40% 35% 30% 23% 25% 20% 22% 16% 15% 10% 16% 15% 10% 7% 3% 5% 0% TV Print Internet Time Spent Source: eMarketer, IAB, comScore, CRT Capital – across 2012 and 2013 Radio Mobile Ad Spend Page 8
  • 9. Agenda  Overview  CRT’s Online Advertising Forecasts  Twitter – Product Overview  CRT’s Proprietary Twitter User Survey Page 9 9
  • 10. Online Advertising Outlook ► CRT U.S. Online Advertising Forecast  12% CAGR to $57B in 2016E ► We’re Bullish on Mobile Advertising and Select Segments of Display Advertising ($M) Total U.S Ad Revenue YoY Cha nge 2011A $31,736 22% 2012A $36,596 15% 2013E $41,647 14% 2014E $46,708 12% 2015E $51,925 11% 2016E $57,023 10% Search $14,757 $16,944 YoY Cha nge 26% 15% % of Tota l 47% 46% Classifieds $2,571 $2,379 YoY Cha nge -1% -7% % of Tota l 8% 7% Lead Generation $1,555 $1,725 YoY Cha nge 19% 11% % of Tota l 5% 5% Mobile $1,587 $3,403 YoY Cha nge 148% 114% % of Tota l 5% 9% Email $222 $156 YoY Cha nge 58% -30% % of Tota l 1% 0% Display Related Ads $11,044 $11,988 YoY Cha nge 9% Source: IAB, PricewaterhouseCoopers and CRT Capital Group15% LLC estimates % of Tota l 35% 33% Banner Ads $6,823 $7,722 YoY Cha nge 14% 13% % of Tota l 22% 21% Rich Media $1,301 $1,116 $19,259 14% 46% $2,022 -15% 5% $1,852 7% 4% $5,586 64% 13% $109 -30% 0% $12,819 7% 31% $8,511 10% 20% $837 $21,185 10% 45% $1,719 -15% 4% $1,963 6% 4% $8,100 45% 17% $76 -30% 0% $13,665 7% 29% $9,192 8% 20% $603 $22,879 8% 44% $1,461 -15% 3% $2,061 5% 4% $10,935 35% 21% $54 -30% 0% $14,535 6% 28% $9,743 6% 19% $422 $24,481 7% 43% $1,242 -15% 2% $2,144 4% 4% $13,669 25% 24% $37 -30% 0% $15,450 6% 27% $10,230 5% 18% $325 CAGR 2012-2016 12% 10% 42% 7% Page 10 10
  • 11. ($M) Total U.S Ad Revenue YoY Cha nge 2011A $31,736 22% 2012A $36,596 15% 2013E $41,647 14% 2014E $46,708 12% 2015E $51,925 11% 2016E $57,023 10% CAGR 2012-2016 12% Search $14,757 $16,944 $19,259 $21,185 $22,879 $24,481 10% YoY Cha nge 26% 15% 14% 10% 8% 7% % of Tota l 47% 46% 46% 45% 44% 43% Classifieds $2,571 $2,379 $2,022 $1,719 $1,461 $1,242 YoY -1% -7% -15% -15% DisplayCha nge Ad Market: We’re Focused On Select Pockets -15% Of Growth -15%Video, Native, Programmatic  % of Tota l 8% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% Lead Generation $1,555 Picking Up Steam, Still Favorable Supply/Demand Dynamics $1,725 $1,852 $1,963 $2,061 $2,144 ► Online Video  Cord Cutting YoY Cha nge 19% 11% 7% 6% 5% 4% % of Tota l  FB NewsFeed and other “Native” Ad Products Demonstrating Extraordinary Advertiser ROI 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% ► Native Mobile $1,587 $3,403 $5,586 $8,100 $10,935 $13,669 42% YoY Cha nge 148%Headwinds For Web 1.0 Media45% 114% 64% 35% 25% ► Programmatic  Continued (e.g., YHOO, AOL); % of Tota l 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 24% Some Web 2.0 Publishers (e.g,. FB) & Some Ad Tech Intermediaries (e.g., GOOG) Likely to Benefit Email $222 $156 $109 $76 $54 $37 CAGR YoY Cha nge 58% -30% -30% -30% -30% -30% ($M)of Tota l 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2012-2016 % 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Total U.S Ad Revenue $31,736 $36,596 $41,647 $46,708 $51,925 $57,023 12% Display Related Ads $11,044 $11,988 $12,819 $13,665 $14,535 $15,450 7% YoY Cha nge 22% 15% 14% 12% 11% 10% 15% 9% 7% 7% 6% 6% % of Tota l 35% 33% 31% 29% 28% 27% Search $14,757 $16,944 $19,259 $21,185 $22,879 $24,481 10% Banner Ads $6,823 $7,722 $8,511 $9,192 $9,743 $10,230 YoY Cha nge 26% 15% 14% 10% 8% 7% YoY Change 14% 13% 10% 8% 6% 5% % of Tota l 47% 46% 46% 45% 44% 43% % of Tota l 22% 21% 20% 20% 19% 18% Classifieds $2,571 $2,379 $2,022 $1,719 $1,461 $1,242 Rich Media $1,301 $1,116 $837 $603 $422 $325 YoY Cha nge -1% -7% -15% -15% -15% -15% YoY Change -17% -14% -25% -28% -30% -23% % of Tota l 8% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% % of Tota l 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% Lead Generation $1,555 $1,725 $1,852 $1,963 $2,061 $2,144 Sponsorships $1,111 $845 $589 $412 $289 $202 YoY Cha nge 19% 11% 7% 6% 5% 4% YoY Change 42% -24% -30% -30% -30% -30% % of Tota l 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% % of Tota l 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% Mobile $1,587 $3,403 $5,586 $8,100 $10,935 $13,669 42% Digital Video $1,809 $2,306 $2,882 $3,459 $4,081 $4,693 19% YoY Cha nge 148% 114% 64% 45% 35% 25% YoY Change 39% 27% 25% 20% 18% 15% % of Tota l 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 24% % of Tota l 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% Email $222 $156 $109 $76 $54 $37 Source: IAB, PricewaterhouseCoopers and CRT Capital Group LLC estimates YoY Cha nge 58% -30% -30% -30% -30% -30% % of Tota l 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Display Related Ads $11,044 $11,988 $12,819 $13,665 $14,535 $15,450 7% Page 11 YoY Cha nge 15% 9% 7% 7% 6% 6% Online Advertising Outlook ► 11
  • 12. Online Advertising Outlook ► CRT U.S. Mobile Advertising Forecast  42% CAGR to $13.7B in revenue in 2016E ► Expect Strong Growth Across Mobile Search, Display and Video/Other ► Strong Audience Growth Dynamics ► Monetization Improving Over Time ($M) U.S. Mobile Ad Revenue YoY Change CAGR 2012-2016 42% 2011A $1,587 148% 2012A $3,403 114% 2013E $5,586 64% 2014E $8,100 45% 2015E $10,935 35% 2016E $13,669 25% Mobile Search YoY Cha nge % of Tota l $603 169% 38% $1,429 137% 42% $2,402 68% 43% $3,564 48% 44% $4,921 38% 45% $6,288 28% 46% 45% Mobile Display YoY Cha nge % of Tota l $873 127% 55% $1,532 75% 45% $2,402 57% 43% $3,321 38% 41% $4,265 28% 39% $5,057 19% 37% 35% Mobile Video & Other YoY Cha nge % of Tota l $111 247% 7% $442 298% 13% $782 77% 14% $1,215 55% 15% $1,750 44% 16% $2,324 33% 17% 51% Source: IAB, PricewaterhouseCoopers and CRT Capital Group LLC estimates Page 12 12
  • 13. Mobile Search - Google ► We expect Google to generate $8.7B in Mobile revenue this year ► Mobile Search could approach $4.7B, up 44% YoY. ► Mobile Display could approach $1.8B, up 36% YoY. Interestingly, 40% of YouTube video views are now coming from mobile devices. ► Enhanced campaigns should help drive CPC pricing parity with desktop over time, thus acting as an accelerator for growth in Google’s Mobile revenue ► In terms of search query share, we believe that Google has ~90%+ mobile query share $16.0 $14.0 $2.6 $12.0 $2.4 $10.0 $8.0 $1.8 $6.0 $1.4 $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 $3.6 $2.2 $2.1 $1.4 $0.3 $0.2 $0.7 2010A $0.7 $0.7 $1.6 $3.3 2011A 2012A Google Mobile - Search Source: CRT Capital Group LLC $3.2 $2.7 $4.7 2013E Google Mobile - Play $5.8 2014E $6.9 2015E $7.9 2016E Google Mobile - Display Page 13 13
  • 14. Mobile Social - Facebook ► We expect FB to generate $3B in Mobile Ad revenue this year, as we show in the chart below ► In 2011, FB had $0 in Mobile Ad revenue vs. Google which had $2.3B ► Growth has come from FB increasing ad loads throughout 2012 and 2013 ► Q2 and Q3 saw strong demand from DR advertisers as FB improved its tools and analytics ► Advertisers may need to focus on quality as FB limits growth of ad load going forward Source: CRT Capital Group LLC Page 14 14
  • 15. Mobile Social - Twitter ► We expect Twitter to generate $580M in revenue this year, or about $430M in Mobile Revenue ► As of Q3, Mobile Revenue was 73% of total ad revenue ► We believe it is still early days for Twitter in terms of monetization ► Twitter could bridge the gap between real-time, TV, and communications – we believe that this could be a big opportunity for advertisers $1,600M $1,436 $1,400M $1,200M $1,013 $1,000M $800M $579 $600M $400M $200M $M $269 $7 2010A $78 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Worldwide Advertising Services Revenue Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC Page 15 15
  • 16. Agenda  Overview  CRT’s Online Advertising Forecasts  Twitter Overview  CRT’s Proprietary Twitter User Survey Page 16 16
  • 17. Social+Mobile Can Be A Powerful Marketing Tool Facebook Twitter 1.19B monthly active users 232M monthly active users 73% on mobile 75%+ on mobile Connect with your friends Connect with your interests Direct Response Campaigns Brand Campaigns Reach Engagement Conversion Likes / Follows Source: CRT Capital Group Page 17 17
  • 18. Twitter Ads – Promoted Products Promoted Account Promoted Trend Promoted Tweet Source: Twitter, CRT Capital Group Page 18 18
  • 19. Promoted Tweets ► Advertisers can “promote” selected Tweets within their Twitter account , similar to Page Post Ads on Facebook ► Promoted Tweets are an effective way to: Increase the exposure of a brand’s Tweets Serve unique messaging to specific audiences to drive engagement ► Pricing based on Cost per Engagement (CPE) Engagements represent clicks, retweets, favorites, etc. Over 90% of engagements are generally clicks Source: Twitter, CRT Capital Group Page 19 19
  • 20. Lead Gen Cards ► Allows users to easily express interest in your offer ► Can expand Tweet and view offer within the Timeline with the user’s information pre-filled ► Captures email for marketing follow up Source: Twitter, CRT Capital Group Page 20 20
  • 21. Promoted Accounts ► Generate new Followers for your Twitter account ► Target users via pre-defined categories (e.g. parents) ► Pricing based on Cost per Follower (CPF) Source: Twitter, CRT Capital Group Page 21 21
  • 22. Promoted Trends ► Drive brand awareness at scale ► Target U.S. or global ► 10th “Trend” listed at the top of the daily trends list ► Flat fee for a 24-hour period Source: Twitter, CRT Capital Group Page 22 22
  • 23. Twitter Amplify ► Nexus between television and Twitter ► Real-time, dual-screen sponsorships and in-Tweet video clips (e.g. instant replays from advertisers like the NBA during games) ► Advertisers include: A&E, MLB, Discovery, PGA, Vevo Source: Twitter, CRT Capital Group Page 23 232323
  • 24. Twitter Tailored Audiences ► Twitter’s take on Facebook’s Custom Audiences ► Allows cookie matching (Facebook introduced a similar feature in October) ► Data partners include Adara, AdRoll, BlueKai, Chango, DataXu, Dstillery, Lotame, Quantcast, ValueClick, and [x+1] ► Beta customer results: ► HubSpot saw 45% lift in engagement rates ► Krossover saw 74% decrease in cost per customer acquisition ► New Relic saw 195% lift in conversion rates Source: Twitter, CRT Capital Group Page 24 24
  • 25. Agenda  Overview  CRT’s Online Advertising Forecasts  Twitter Overview  CRT’s Proprietary Twitter User Survey Page 25 25
  • 26. CRT’s Twitter Survey ► CRT conducted a proprietary survey in conjunction with Survey Monkey for to learn about the service from a Consumer’s perspective ► We reached out to over 7,000 Internet users, and 1,676 people indicated that they use Twitter ► Survey was conducted from October 17th to October 22nd 2013 ► We wanted to test the following ► What do Twitter users do on Twitter? ► How engaged are they with the service? ► What do users think about Ads on Twitter? ► Are people really watching TV and Tweeting? ► What could Twitter do to improve the service? Page 26 26
  • 27. Twitter Survey – Frequency of Usage ► 35% of Twitter users are heavy users ► 65% of users are “casual” or “casual+” users How often do you use Twitter? Slightly often 41% Moderately often 24% Quite often Extremely often 20% 15% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 27 27
  • 28. Twitter Survey – Frequency of Usage ► 28% of users go to Twitter few times a week ► 26% of users go to Twitter several times a day During the last month, how many times have used Twitter? Few times a week 28% Several times a day 26% Once during the last month None 15% 0% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 28 28
  • 29. Twitter Survey – Frequency of Usage ► Over 80% of Twitter users are using the service the same or more than last year ► 48% are using Twitter more than they did last year, which indicates to us that people are finding value in the service and are not getting tired of it In the past month, have you used Twitter… …More than last year 48% …About the same …Less than last year 35% 18% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 29 29
  • 30. Twitter Survey – Frequency of Usage ► ~93% said they plan to use Twitter the same or more over the next year Over the next twelve months, do you think your Twitter usage will… …Stay about the same 63% …Go up moderately 24% …Go up significantly 6% …God down moderately 6% …Go down significantly 2% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 30 30
  • 31. Twitter Survey – Use Case ► 33% of Twitter users consume information only, and never tweet. Twitter Voyers! ► But that doesn’t hide the fact that a majority (63%) do actually tweet How often do you tweet? Almost never 33% Once a month 17% Once a week 14% More than once a week 13% More than once a day More than once a month Once a day 10% 7% 6% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 31 31
  • 32. Twitter Survey – Use Case ► 41% of users access Twitter to get real-time information ► Only 4% follow brands or products – something that marketers will need to contend with What do you use Twitter most for? Reading/consuming news and information 41% Broadcasting messages, thoughts, or opinions 20% Following celebrities and/or athletes 19% Connecting with friends and colleagues Following brands and/or products 16% 4% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 32 32
  • 33. Twitter Survey – Use Case ► The Shocker #1! 36% of Twitter users don’t really know how to use Twitter! This is an issue, and we believe that Twitter could easily address this with more education, a quick tutorial when signing up, and helping you narrow your interests ► Twitter also needs to do a better job of helping users search for specific tweets from the firehose/… What do you dislike most about Twitter ? I'm not really sure how to use Twitter 36% Hard to find tweets from my followers 31% Therea re too many ads 140 Characters is too little to make my point 23% 10% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 33 33
  • 34. Twitter Survey – Use Case ► Sharing/viewing content and following celebs seem to be the most popular activities on Twitter What do you like best about Twitter ? 47% 42% 32% 29% 28% 28% 18% 15% 14% 12% 9% 5% 5% 3% 2% Share content Follow Share Have a Share Support Use hashtags Share photos Share good Make new Share videos Track stocks Join or host a Create a poll Share music (blogs, Celebrities information conversation content/info causes and to start a new deals, friends Tweet for input articles, etc) about local from a live charities topic, event, coupons, etc events event etc Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 34 34
  • 35. Twitter Survey – Use Case ► The most popular action on Twitter is Tweeting and Re-Tweeting ► Surprisingly, people are sharing pics and videos on the site as well In the past month, while using Twitter, have you… 70% 61% 33% 32% 19% 12% 8% Tweeted Re-Tweeted Shared pictures Shared an article or video clip Logged into another site w/ Twitter account Shared a file 4% Shared music 2% Exchanged a business card Other Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 35 35
  • 36. Twitter Survey – Use Case ► Followers are not necessarily friends ► Most users sers have less than 50 followers and follow less than 50 people! ► Average Facebook user has over 200 friends How many Twitter followers do you have? Less than 50 59% 51-200 27% 201-500 Greater than 500 9% 5% How many people do you follow on Twitter? Less than 50 44% 51-200 35% 201-500 Greater than 500 14% 7% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 36 36
  • 37. Twitter Survey – Competition ► FB and Instagram top the charts ► More people use Google+ than Snapchat! What other social media sites do you use regularly? Facebook 89% Instagram 34% Google+ 24% Snapchat 16% Tumblr 16% Other 10% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 37 37
  • 38. Twitter Survey – Competition ► 60% use Twitter less than other social sites ► 40% use Twitter same or more ► Twitter is more for snacking on info than keeping up with friends/family How much do you use Twitter vs. the other social sites? I use Twitter a lot less 38% I use Twitter moderately less 22% I use Twitter about the same I use Twitter a lot more I use Twitter a moderatly more 21% 11% 8% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 38 38
  • 39. Twitter Survey – Advertising ► 87% of users find ads on Twitter to be better quality than ads on FB… How are the quality of ads on Twitter compared to the ads on Facebook? About the same 63% Somewhat better Significantly better Somewhat worse Significantly worse 15% 9% 7% 6% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 39 39
  • 40. Twitter Survey – Advertising ► …But people are still not engaging with ads Have you clicked on a Twitter Ad? No Yes 86% 14% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 40 40
  • 41. Twitter Survey – Advertising ► Of those who clicked on an ad, 52% like relevant links ► Brands ads and promos are not too popular right now What types of ads do you engage with on Twitter? Useful links in the tweet that take me to their site Companies/brands that tweet me about deals, promos, etc. 52% 14% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 228 Page 41 41
  • 42. Twitter Survey – Advertising ► 84% of users find ads on Twitter to be engaging and interesting! How interesting/relevant are the ads you see on Twitter? Somewhat interesting/relevant 69% Not very interesting/relevant 16% Very interesting/relevant 15% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 228 Page 42 42
  • 43. Twitter Survey – Advertising ► 87% of users would be open to seeing more ad load on Twitter!!! ► This is the first time we’ve ever seen this type of response ► Indicates to us that the ad load on Twitter is very light right now, and Twitter could step up monetization on this front If Twitter could improve the relevancy of the ads, would you be open to having Twitter show you more ads? Yes but with reservations 46% Yes No 41% 13% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 43 43
  • 44. Twitter Survey – Twitter & TV ► 51% of Twitter users access the service while watching TV, but 49% don’t How often do you use Twitter while watching TV? Almost never 49% Once in a while 29% Often A lot of the tiime 15% 7% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 44 44
  • 45. Twitter Survey – Twitter & TV ► Amplify is still in early stages Have you seen an ad on Twitter while watching TV? No 46% I don't remember 37% Yes, buy un-related to the ads played during the show Yes, and related to the ads played while watching the show 10% 7% Source: CRT Capital Group, LLC, n= 1,676 Page 45 45
  • 46. Key Takeaways ► Twitter is still in its early stages with regards to rolling out advertising products ► Twitter needs to do a better job of educating users and marketers about the benefits of the service, and how to take advantage of the real-time interest graph ► Most Twitter users are using Twitter the same or more than last year ► Over 85% of Twitter users said they plan to use Twitter the same or more over the next year ► People find the ads on Twitter to be relevant and interesting, but most people haven’t clicked on an ad ► 87% of users would be ok with Twitter showing more ads if those ads were relevant and interesting ► 51% of users access Twitter while watching TV, but most of them haven’t seen an ad on Twitter while watching TV ► We believe that marketers and agencies put Twitter in the experimental budget bucket; Once tools, analytics, and APIs improve, we could see more budget moving to Twitter Page 46 46
  • 47. Questions? Neil A. Doshi Managing Director, Internet Research 415.762.4880 | ndoshi@crtllc.com @neildoshi Robert J. Coolbrith Vice President, Internet Research 415.762.4890 | rcoolbrith@crtllc.com Page 47 47
  • 48. Page 48 48