EURAS-CLIMPACT- Impact of climate change and related glacier hazards and mitigation strategies in the European Alps, Swedish Lapland and the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia
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EURAS-CLIMPACT- Impact of climate change and related glacier hazards and mitigation strategies in the European Alps, Swedish Lapland and the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia

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Presentació per part de Hermann Haeusler (Departament de Geociències Ambientals, Universitat de Viena, Àustria) en el marc de l’acte de clausura del projecte europeu CIRCLE 2 MOUNTain co-organitzat......

Presentació per part de Hermann Haeusler (Departament de Geociències Ambientals, Universitat de Viena, Àustria) en el marc de l’acte de clausura del projecte europeu CIRCLE 2 MOUNTain co-organitzat per l'Oficina Catalana del Canvi Climàtic durant els dies 26 i 27 de setembre de 2013.

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  • 1. EURAS-CLIMPACT Impact of Climate Change and Related Glacier Hazards and Mitigation Strategies in the European Alps, Swedish Lapland and the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia *Hermann Häusler (hermann.haeusler@univie.ac.at), Diethard Leber, Alexander Kopecny, Matthias Bichler & Martin Reindl **Wolfgang Schöner, Stefan Reisenhofer & Anton Neureiter ***Gerhard Bax *Department of Environmental Geosciences, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Geography & Astronomy University of Vienna, Austria **Central Agency of Meteorology and Geodynamics (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, ZAMG), Vienna, Austria ***Blekinge Institute of Technology, Karlshamn, Sweden Barcelona, Thursday 26 of September, 2013 09.30 – 10.15
  • 2. • Objectives • Area of Investigation & Project Data • Climatological Results • Glacio-Geological Results • Stakeholders & Mitigation Strategies • Honouring Gottfried Merzbacher • Résumé Content
  • 3. Objectives & Scope of Project
  • 4. • Expeditions Tien Shan, Kirgistan: (2009) 2011, 2012 • Expeditions Central Alps, Austria: 2011, 2012 • Presentations at EGU, Vienna: 2011, 2012, 2013 • Presentations at CIRCLE 2: 2011-Chambery, 2012-Innsbruck, 2013-Barcelona • Bishkek Workshop: 13-17.8.2012 • Presentations at Paro/Bhutan 6.12.2012; Almaty, Kazachstan 13.12.2012; Austrian Geological Society, Vienna, 24.4.2013; Institute of Geography, University of Vienna, 28.5.2013 Time Table (2011-2013)
  • 5. Areas of Investigation www.rockspace.se/climpact
  • 6. DYURGEROV & MAIER, 2005 Objectives & Scope of Project
  • 7. Objectives & Scope of Project
  • 8. General temperature trend on the territory of the Kirgistan for the entire period of instrumental observations 1885-2005 (centigrade; Kuzmichenok, 2003; Davletkeldiev and Takenov, 2009). 39 meteorological stations 1972 Objectives & Scope of Project
  • 9. Trend Air Temperature 1960-2000
  • 10. Multiyear air temperature: + 0,015°C/year Increase summer air temperature Decrease winter air temperature Precipitation ± same at all altitudes (decrease at higher altitudes) Trend Air Temperature 1960-2000
  • 11. Outer ranges: mild, temperate climate, July MAT = 17°C; 700 mm prec.; ELA at 3600-3800 m Inner ranges: more severe, continental climate. West Terskey Ala Tau: July MAT = 7-8°C; ELA at 4000 m Inner ranges: Khokshaal Tau: ELA at 4400-4600 m Glacier Catalogue UdSSR (1968-1982)
  • 12. Objectives & Scope of Project The EURAS-CLIMPACT-project aimed at the empirical modelling of glacier development from climate data for high alpine glaciers during the last fifty years. The project linked climate modelling (reanalysis data & statistical downscaling) with glacier modelling using hydrometeorological and remote sensing data (time series analysis) & DEM data (ERDAS & ARC/GIS). The study presents the combination of long-term reanalysis data (National Centre for Environmental Prediction – NCEP) and future scenario data (European Centre Hamburg Model - ECHAM5) to drive a spatial glacio-hydrological mass balance model (GERM – glacier evolution runoff model) in order to assess the impacts of future climate change on glaciers in Austria and Kirgistan. The evaluation and downscaling of global climate models in Central Asia contributes to a better understanding of the potential of these models to describe present climate and future climate under IPCC scenarios.
  • 13. • GERM (Glacier Evolution Runoff Model) is a glacio-hydrological model to calculate runoff from highly glacierized catchments. • The climatic input data are daily temperature and daily precipitation. • 3D glacier surface geometry is based on DEM. • GERM is run on a 25 m grid in daily time-steps. The system model includes components for: Glacier surface mass balance (accumulation and ablation) Evaporation Runoff routing Changes in glacier surface topography and glacier retreat Glacier Modelling
  • 14. Climatological Data Additionally, to the station data above climate data from the Central Asia Database (CAD http://www.sci.uidaho.edu/cae/data/) was used for trend analysis.
  • 15. Mass Balance & Runoff
  • 16. Future Mass Balance Future cumulative annual mass balance until 2050 for scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 Goldbergkees (GOK), Austria Golubina (GOL), Kirgistan
  • 17. Tien Shan Glaciers Golubine Glacier Karabatkak Glacier Inylchek Glacier Location of Southern and Northern Inylchek Glacier in the east of the central Tien Shan (base map courtesy of Kuzmichenok, 2002).
  • 18. 2005 Lake Merzbacher 1 & 2
  • 19. Lower Lake Merzbacher
  • 20. Peremitschka
  • 21. Frontal SIG: Stagnation 1900 - 2005 Position of Southern Inylchek Glacier basically has not changed during the last 100 years Yearly fluctuation of of bended Southern Inylchek Glacier is only possible due to flow of its front (ice- dam) when Lower Lake Merzbacher is filled 1903 2005
  • 22. 2005 Remote Sensing Analysis
  • 23. Change Detection - Oblique photos from historical expeditions - Aerial stereo photos (UdSSR) - Topographic maps - Keyhole satellite mission - SPOT satellite system - JERS-1 satellite (VNIR) - IRS-satellite - Landsat TM, ETM+, OLI/TIRS (8) - ASTER - Quickbird, Google Earth - Rapid Eye - DEM – Topo/SRTM - ESRI Imagery Basemap
  • 24. Change Detection Upper Lake Merzbacher
  • 25. Change Detection Upper Lake Merzbacher (1943-2011) 2 km UTM 410000 Upper Lake Merzbacher
  • 26. - Staircase terraces Inylchek Valley: Neotectonic vs. sedimentary origin - Subsurface geology in Northern Inylchek Valley and at confluence (GCO) - Paleogeographic development of Northern Inylchek Valley since LGM - Recent surge cycle and paleo surge cycle of Northern Inylchek Glacier Inylchek-Expeditions 2009-2011 Landsat 7 ETM+ of the Inylchek Glacier acquired August 2006; pan-sharpened; bands 1, 4, 7; ground resolution; Häusler et al. (2011). GCO
  • 27. • Geological setting • Geomorphological inventory • Youger fluvial terraces • Older kame terraces Inylchek-Expedition 2011
  • 28. Glacio-Geological Results
  • 29. Glacio-Geological Results
  • 30. Glacio-Geological Results
  • 31. Global Change Observatory (GCO) GCO
  • 32. 670.00 – 2,500.000 Ωm Inylchek-Expedition 2009 Subsurface Geology
  • 33. Inylchek-Expedition 2009 Subsurface Geology
  • 34. Inylchek-Expedition 2009 Subsurface Geology
  • 35. 6.00 – 30.000 Ωm Inylchek-Expedition 2009 Subsurface Geology
  • 36. Inylchek-Expedition 2009 Subsurface Geology
  • 37. Inylchek-Expedition 2009 Subsurface Geology
  • 38. Inylchek-Expedition 2009 - The ERT-measurements allowed for distinguishing subsurface hard rock, soft rock, and ice, respectively dead ice. - In the Northern Inylchek Valley the ERT-profiles were interpreted as glacio- geological profiles resulting from retreating Northern Inylchek Glacier (Häusler et al., in preparation).
  • 39. GCO Inylchek-Expedition 2011
  • 40. Glaci-lacustrine deposits between Lower and Upper Lake Merzbacher Inylchek-Expedition 2011
  • 41. HÄUSLER 2012Sedimentary microstructures at the base of a debris flow diamicton: laminated silt & clay with disharmonic folds. Inylchek-Expedition 2011
  • 42. Inylchek-Expedition 2011 The sedimentological profile reveals lake deposits overlain by basal moraine (a-b). This moraine was deposited by a glacier, which piled up frontal moraines (in brown) bordering the Peremitschka. This glacier therefore advanced after a very big lake (deposits c-d) existed in the Northern Inylchek Valley (Häusler et al., in preparation).
  • 43. Inylchek-Expedition 2011 The sedimentological investigation of lake sediments of the Peremitschka (A-B) and on top of the surged Northern Inylchek Glacier (C) allow for reconstruction of a big paleolake, existing before the Northern Inylchek Glacier piled up the moraine walls, separating the Peremitschka from Upper Lake Merzbacher (Häusler et al., in preparation). Paleolake with length of at minimum 10.000 m (Original distance A-C)
  • 44. Glacier Fluctuations 1) From process analysis of the Southern Inylchek Glacier (SIG) we conclude: - Positive mass balance of Southern Inylchek Glacier (stable front since 1900) is caused by both ice flow from the accumulation at 5000-7000 m altitude and buoyancing of ice-dam and advance of bended glacier opposite GCO, as soon as Lower Lake Merzbacher is filled. - Regular advance of bended Southern Inylchek Glacier is depending on an external factor, namely the daming of Lower Lake Merzbacher during summer until the water is released through an englacial pipe system. 2) From process analysis of the Northern Inylchek Glacier (NIG) we conclude: - In recent times the Northern Inylchek Glacier underwent a surge cycle. Positive mass balance was also caused by both ice flow from the accumulation area, and interaction of glacier front with Upper Lake Merzbacher. Once the glacier front buoyanced, the friction at glacier base was drastically reduced, and the glacier rapidly advanced (surged). - We term this rapid advancing process as special type of glacier surge, namely the „Northern Inylchek“ type of glacier surge. The entire recent surge cycle lasted for at least 100 years. SIG NIG
  • 45. Glacio-Geological Results: Austria Mapping the geology of moraines and mass movements, and dating geologic events by cosmogenic nuclides. (Mathias Bichler, Martin Reindl, Hermann Häusler, Jürgen Reitner, Susan Ivy-Ochs, 2011- 2013) Dynamics of a Younger-Dryas Glacier System in the Sonnblick Region (Austrian Central Alps) framed by Bølling-Allerød and Preboreal Landslides Durchgangwald Landslide
  • 46. Glacio-Geological Results: Austria
  • 47. Glacio-Geological Results: Austria
  • 48. Glacio-Geological Results: Austria
  • 49. Stakeholders & Mitigation Strategies
  • 50. Two weeks before our workshop an outburst of glacier lake Tez Tor in Ala Archa National Park south of Bishkek occurred. The Kyrgyz Ministry of Emergency Situations informed the local population in time. Bishkek Workshop 13-17 August, 2012
  • 51. Askar Kutanov (CAREN)
  • 52. Bolot Moldobekov (CAIAG)
  • 53. Michal Černý (Geomin)
  • 54. Stefan Reisenhofer (ZAMG)
  • 55. Stefan Reisenhofer & Anton Neureiter
  • 56. Martin Hölzle (Fribourg)
  • 57. Kanayim Teshebaeva (CAIAG)
  • 58. Diethard Leber (UNIVIE)
  • 59. Rahima Adieva (Bishkek)
  • 60. Helicopter Excursion
  • 61. Field Work
  • 62. HÄUSLER & LEBER (University of Vienna): Bishkek-Workshop 2012: Manual for field mapping of geohazards Manual for geohazard-mapping
  • 63. HÄUSLER & LEBER (University of Vienna): Bishkek-Workshop 2012: Manual for field mapping of geohazards Manual for geohazard-mapping
  • 64. HÄUSLER & LEBER (University of Vienna): Bishkek-Workshop 2012: Manual for field mapping of geohazards Manual for geohazard-mapping
  • 65. Glacio-Geological Results: Sweden
  • 66. Mass balance diagram of Storglaciären Glacio-Geological Results: Sweden
  • 67. Stakeholder Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam (Dr. Jörn Lauterjung) Geomin, Ilhava, Czech Republic (Dr. Michal Cerny) Kyrgyz National University, Bishkek (Dr. Murataly Duishinakunov) Kyrgyz-Russian-Slavic University, Bishkek (Department of Meteorology, Ecology & Environment Protection: Dr. Inna Brusenskaja) Ministry of Emergency Situations, Bishkek Ministry of Natural Resources, Bishkek (Dr. Sergei Erokhin) National Academy of Sciences, Bishkek (Central Asian Research and Education Network; Dr. Askar Kutanov) National Information Center, Bishkek (Almaz Bakenov) Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Department of Gegraphy, Dr. Bulat Mavlyudov) State Agency of Hydrometeorology, Bishkek (Itibaev Sagyndykovich)
  • 68. New Paper on Gottfried Merzbacher 20.3.1907
  • 69. Résumé of EURAS-CLIMPACT Impact of climate change and related glacier hazards and mitigation strategies in the European Alps and in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia - Modelling the climate–glacier behaviour in the Austrian Alps and in the Tien Shan for 1950-2010 & calculation of future scenarios until 2050 based on climatological data, reanalysis data (NCEP), future scenario data (ECHAM5), remote sensing data & DEM data. - Detailed field investigations on glacier change in the Northern and Central Tien Shan (Kirgistan), and in the Central Austrian Alps. - Risk assessment of glacier lake outburst floods, of glacier surges, of mass movements following glacier retreat as well as neotectonic processes in the Northern and Central Tien Shan, and design of mitigation strategies in the Kyrgyz Republic. - Strong stakeholder involvement in the Kyrgyz Republic as well as in the Central Austrian Alps.
  • 70. Stakeholder
  • 71. Austrian Ministry of Science & Research (37.590/0001-II/4/2010) Acknowledgements
  • 72. We thank you for your attention! EURAS-CLIMPACT Impact of Climate Change and Related Glacier Hazards and Mitigation Strategies in the European Alps, Swedish Lapland and the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia