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CAMELEON- Carbon Dynamics in Mountain Ecosystems: analyzing landscape-scale effects of anthropogenic changes (climate and land-use)
 

CAMELEON- Carbon Dynamics in Mountain Ecosystems: analyzing landscape-scale effects of anthropogenic changes (climate and land-use)

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Presentació per part de Nicolas Viovy (Laboratoire des Sciences dy Climat et de l'Environnement, França) en el marc de l’acte de clausura del projecte europeu CIRCLE 2 MOUNTain co-organitzada per ...

Presentació per part de Nicolas Viovy (Laboratoire des Sciences dy Climat et de l'Environnement, França) en el marc de l’acte de clausura del projecte europeu CIRCLE 2 MOUNTain co-organitzada per l'Oficina Catalana del Canvi Climàtic durant els dies 26 i 27 de setembre de 2013.

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    CAMELEON- Carbon Dynamics in Mountain Ecosystems: analyzing landscape-scale effects of anthropogenic changes (climate and land-use) CAMELEON- Carbon Dynamics in Mountain Ecosystems: analyzing landscape-scale effects of anthropogenic changes (climate and land-use) Presentation Transcript

    • CArbon dynamics in Mountain Ecosystems: analyzing Landscape-scale Effects Of aNthropogenic changes (climate and land use)
    • Main scientific question addressed What are the impacts of changing land use and climate on the carbon cycle and grassland management of mountain landscapes? CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • project objectives • Compile a unique database on climate, land cover, land use, carbon and ecological data for three contrasted mountain regions. • Use information to improve representation of alpine systems in a DGVM model • Use the improved model to attribute the role of climate, elevated CO2 and land use in past/present and future changes in mountain systems (focus on carbon cycle). • Use the model to estimate possible adaptation of grassland systems to climate and land use change CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • challenges • Synthesizing available data at plant, ecosystem and landscape level • Upscaling process-based ecosystem information to larger spatial and temporal scales • Implementing fine-scale grassland processes in global biogeochemical model (ORCHIDEE) • Integrating natural sciences with stakeholder perceptions and disseminating scenarios of C dynamics across European mountain regions CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • 5 partners • LSCE (France) • NOVELTIS (France) • Zone Atelier Alpes (France) • University of Innsbruck UIBK (Austria) • CTFC (Spain) CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • 3 regions Stubai Valley Alinya valley Vercors Plateau CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Data Synthesis CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Land cover mapping Historical period: based on photointerpretation of aerial and remote sensing data (3 to 5 dates been used). Future: several scenarios, based on different climate change and local socio-economic constraints. Directly discussed with local stakeholders CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • • For future projection, available for Stubai and Vercors. Based on slighly different methods: – Stubai: direct discussion with stakeholders presenting socio-economic and climate projection – Vercors: automatic projection for past as basis for discussion with stakeholder to define the scenarios. But conduct to similar kind of scenarios at the end (i.e business as usual or reverse trend). Land cover mapping: future CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • 1. Partitioning 1692 available vegetation releves into k clusters 2. Listing the dominant plant species of each cluster 3. Checking trait availability in local or global DBs 4. Calculating Community Weighted Means and s.d. for key traits Synthesis and upscaling of functionnal diversity 5. Intra community s.d for key traits
    • Remote sensing • Compilation of existing remote sensing data, MODIS, SPOT-VGT • Processing and selection of the most relevant datasets CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Climate data combination between ERA-WATCH/ECHAM A1B scenario (0.25°, daily) and WORDCLIM (1km) climatology 1950 2100 Statistical downscaling Era-watch +remo A1b 0.25° 1950 2100 Worldclim T,P 1km climatology Eraworldc daily 1km data CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • • Mainly compilation of existing flux measurements from Alinya and Stubai + management data In situ carbon data CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Main results CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Statistical model of FI change FIij = a0i + a1i YEARij + eij a0i = b00 + b01 ELEVi + u0i a1i = b10 + b11 ELEVi + u1i CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013 Modeling land cover dynamics
    • • In-situ flux measurement and remote sensing was used to evaluate and calibrate ORCHIDEE. • Optimisation is based on 4D-VAR assimilation system of ORCHIDEE (ORCHIS). • Assimilation based on: - Remote sensing data to optimize phenological parameters - Eddy fluxes for optimization of phosynthesis etc… Calibration/evaluation of ORCHIDEE CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Example anomaly of vegetation onset Onset anomaly from remote sensing (Stubai) Onset anomaly from ORCHIDEE (Stubai) CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Improvement of anomaly estimation after assimilation Correlation NDVI/model Stubai Correlation NDVI/model Vercors Prior Posterior CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Comparison with eddy fluxes Gross Primary production Ecosystem respiration Net carbon exchange Stubai Alinya CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013 Obs Model
    • Impact of functional diversity on carbon cycle Vercors Stubai Alinya Simuled variabiliy of net primary production for each vegetation class Estimated community weighed mean and variation of Vcmax for each vegetation class Vercors Stubai Alinya
    • • Series of Simulations at regional scale to understand role of climate and land use change in the past and for future projection. • Some parameters fixed whereas others are varying Attribution studies at regional scale CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Climate change for the 3 sites Stubai Vercors Alinya Temp. Rainfall CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Historical land use change for the 3 sites Stubai Vercors Alinya Bare soil Grassland Forest CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Future land use change CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Present net primary productivity Alinya Stubai Vercors CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • GPP Ecosystem respiration Net carbon exchange Evolution of carbon fluxes past/present/future Stubai Vercors CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Alinya Attribution of carbon fluxes changes (present) GPP Ecosystem respiration Net carbon exchange CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Attribution of carbon fluxes changes (future) GPP Ecosystem respiration Net carbon exchange Alinya CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • • ORCHIDEE-GM is able to calculate an optimum animal density assuming a close system where grassland is separated between pure grazing/cut system, and autosufficient system • Algorithm has been adapted to take into account for the 3 sites systems: – Stubai and Alinya: evaluation at the whole region instead of pixel based assumption. – Vercors: take into account for transhumance: we consider animal at Vercors in summer and in Crau during winter (i.e different climate change…) Evolution of sustainable animal density CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Evolution of mean sustainable animal density Stubai Alinya Large increase of animal density for Stubai, but stabilitation even small decrease after 2060 for Alinya CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Attribution of climate and land use to change in animal density Stubai Vercors Change in fraction between int/ext grassland has a large impact on animal density for Stubai Limited productivity In Crau does not allow To fully benefit for Increase of grassland Surface in Vercors
    • • ORCHIDEE after calibration have shown a good ability to simulate the mountains ecosystems. • Land use change: 3 sites shown a similar trend for reforestation for the past, the trend been more important for Vercors, contrasted response for future depending from the scenario Main conclusions CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • • Climate change: – Increase of temperature (mainly after 1980) – Contrasted response for precipitation between Stubai and Alinya Consequence for production and carbon storage: – temperature is the main driver in contrast to plain regions – High increase for Stubai, Vercors, less for Alinya Conclusion (2) CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013
    • Consequence for grassland management: – possible increase of animal density, especially for Stubai. But more limited even reversed for Alinya, limited by Crau production for Vercors But could be too optimistic because: – Two high response of ORCHIDEE to CO2 ? – moderate A1B scenario used – Increase of interannual variability Conclusion (3) CIRCLE MOUNTAIN final meeting, Barcelona 26 & 27 September 2013 The story is not finish ! CAMELEON created a momentun between the groups that will continue …..