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Inside3DPrinting_johnhornick Presentation Transcript

  • 1. 3D Printing and the Future (or Demise) of Intellectual Property John Hornick April 2014
  • 2. 2 First, a Disclaimer “Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they the shadows of things that May be?” » Ebenezer Scrooge, to the Third Spirit
  • 3. Keep in Mind . . .
  • 4. 4 Keep in Mind Tipping into the mainstream Everything will change when . . . Implications
  • 5. Why the Future (or Demise) of IP?
  • 6. 6 Two Reasons  Democratization of manufacturing
  • 7. 7 Some People Don’t Like IP  “There is a persistent widespread belief that intellectual property law (and patents in particular) encourage innovation. This is intuitive, however, the evidence to the contrary is now overwhelming and the unavoidable conclusion is that intellectual property actually stifles innovation.”
  • 8. 8 Snapshot of the 3D Printer Players 8 HIGH-END PRINTERS LOW-COST PRINTERS 3D Kits, A1 Technologies, Ac123Dc, Afinia, Airwolf 3D, Asiga, B9Creations, BatBot, Bits from Bytes, Blue Printer, CB-Printer, Code-p, CSP, Cubify, Deezmaker, Essential Dynamics, Eventorbot, EZ 3D printers, Fabbster, Fablicator, Felix Printers, Formlabs, German RepRap Foundation, Hot Proceed, Hyrel 3D, Intelligent Machine Inc., Invent Apart, iRapid, Leapfrog, Lulzbot, Makemendel, Makergear, MaukCC, Mbot 3D, Mendel Parts, MendelMax, miniFactory, Mixshop, Multistation, NW RepRap, PP3DP, Printrbot, Rays Opitcs, RepRap France - eMotion Tech, RepRapPro, ReprapSource, Robo 3D, Robot Factory, Romscraj, Sharebot, Solido, Solidoodle, Sumpod, Tantillus, The Future is 3-D, Tinkerine Studio, TrinityLabs, Type A Machines, Ultimaker, Ultra-Bot, Weistek, York 3D Printers, Zbot.cc 8
  • 9. Where is the IP in 3D Printing?
  • 10. 10 Where’s Waldo?  AM machines – driven by  Software or firmware  CAD/CAM file – fuse, layer on layer  Extruded material, powder, or sheets  Heat, chemical, glue, light, knife, electron beam  Post-production work
  • 11. 11 Where’s Waldo?  AM machines – driven by  Software or firmware  CAD file – fuse material layer on layer  Extruded material, powder, or sheets  Heat, chemical, glue, light, knife, electron beam  Post-production work
  • 12. Why 3DP May Change Everything
  • 13. 13 Why It May Change Everything: Micro  One machine makes all, no re-tooling or assembly  Impossible designs, interior structures  Affordable customization – Complexity is free – Batches of one, on demand  Greener – Less raw materials, energy
  • 14. 14 Why It May Change Everything: Macro  Facially inconsistent situations – Manufacturing Renaissance in countries with  Strong intellectual capital  But high manufacturing costs – Repatriation of jobs  No advantage in offshoring
  • 15. 15 Why It May Change Everything: Macro  But – Disruption/destruction of traditional models – Future sales:  Designs, not products – Regional Manufacturing  Just in time – Printing in-house, by service bureaus, by you and me
  • 16. Thought Experiment
  • 17. 17 What Would Happen if?  Anyone could make things with virtually any functionality away from control?
  • 18. 18 What Would Happen if?  Anyone could make things with virtually any functionality away from control?  Cody Wilson
  • 19. 19 What Would Happen if?  Anyone could make things with virtually any functionality away from control?  Effect on: –Traditional Business Models? –IP?
  • 20. 20 Answer: Paradigm Shift –Democratization of manufacturing  No entry barriers  Lines will blur: manufacturer, retailer, user  Fundamentally different products  BACK TO making, not buying –As democratization increases . . .
  • 21. 21 Answer: Paradigm Shift  As democratization increases –IP becomes increasingly irrelevant
  • 22. 22 As democratization increases  As democratization increases –IP increasingly irrelevant –Customization replaces IP
  • 23. 23 As democratization increases  As democratization increases –IP increasingly irrelevant –Customization replaces IP –Trade secrets
  • 24. Disruption Checklist
  • 25. 25 Disruption Checklist  Industrial scale – Large build platform – Speed or scale  Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials – Ability to print complex structures – Micro scale printing – Hybrid machines – Innovators, especially . . .
  • 26. 26 Checklist For IP Disruption  “CEO of Autodesk Carl Bass will speak from personal experience about how to get the young makers in your life empowered to make amazing things and explore the world around them” (Bay Area Maker Faire May 2013)
  • 27. 27 Disruption Checklist  One more thing:
  • 28. 28 Disruption Checklist  One more thing: – Ability to do all of this away from control  At home  Uncontrolled sources
  • 29. 3DP Today
  • 30. 30 3DP Today  Manufacturing: growing rapidly – ½ of all machines sold  Hot areas: – Aerospace – Automotive – Healthcare – Fashion – Complex structures
  • 31. 31 3DP in Aerospace  Boeing : “This is the ultimate manufacturing method for us”  Airbus: wing brackets  North Western Polytechnical U (China): titanium wing spar
  • 32. 32 3DP in Aerospace  GE: “This is the future of manufacturing” – Acquired 2 AM companies – Parts for 4000 LEAP engines  DMLS titanium powder – Fuel nozzle  DMLS Cobalt-chromium powder
  • 33. 33 3DP in Automotive  3 Cool Cars  0 to 60 in 5 days
  • 34. 34 Two Cool Bikes  Empire Cycles/Renishaw  3DP-F1 Flying Machine
  • 35. 35 One Ugly Kayak
  • 36. 36 3DP in Healthcare  Ears (cosmetic and bionic)  Fingers  Noses  Models  Custom hearing aids (95%)  Dental (crowns, aligners) – 17 million  Prosthetics/Exo  Custom coverings for artificial limbs  Bladder, liver, kidney  Bone/bone cells  DNA  Drugs/vaccines  Eyes  Facial Reconstruction  Joints, discs, bones, spine  Stem cells  Tissue (ONVO)
  • 37. 37 3DP in Healthcare  Facial Reconstruction
  • 38. 38 3DP in Healthcare  Proof of concept customizable artificial heart
  • 39. 39 3DP in Healthcare  Proof of concept customizable artificial heart
  • 40. 40 3DP in Healthcare  Heart sensor/defibrillator membrane – Washington U, St. Louis & U of Illinois  Heart by 2023 – University of Louisville  Aorta Cells – Sabanci U, Turkey
  • 41. 41 3DP of Complex Structures  Stratasys and Optomec: first fully 3DP electro- mechanical structure  UTEP: printed electronic structures
  • 42. 42 3DP of Complex Structures  FEBID (-100nm)  Google/3D Systems: ARA  CAMTEK: circuit board printer
  • 43. 43 3DP of Complex Structures  MIT Center for Bits & Atoms – 3D Assemblers  Atoms/molecules placed where needed  Complete functional systems printed at once –integrated fixed and moving mechanical structures and electronics  Self-assembling
  • 44. 44 IP Implications  Companies’ IP Philosophy  Protectability  IP infringement: – Types – Likelihood – Effectiveness of enforcement – Scale  Risk to IP system:
  • 45. 45 IP Implications  Companies’ IP Philosophy  Protectability  IP infringement: – Types – Likelihood – Effectiveness of enforcement – Scale  Risk to IP system:
  • 46. 46 IP Implications  Companies’ IP Philosophy  Protectability: 13,000 PATENTS/APPLICATIONS  IP infringement: – Types – Likelihood – Effectiveness of enforcement – Scale  Risk to IP system:
  • 47. 47 IP Implications  Companies’ IP Philosophy  Protectability  IP infringement: – Types: PATENT, COPYRIGHT, TRADE SECRET, TM – Likelihood – Effectiveness of enforcement – Scale  Risk to IP system:
  • 48. 48 IP Implications  Companies’ IP Philosophy  Protectability  IP infringement: – Types – Likelihood – Effectiveness of enforcement – Scale  Risk to IP system:
  • 49. 49 IP Implications  Companies’ IP Philosophy  Protectability  IP infringement: – Types – Likelihood – Effectiveness of enforcement – Scale  Risk to IP system:
  • 50. 50 IP Implications  Companies’ IP Philosophy  Protectability  IP infringement: – Types – Likelihood – Effectiveness of enforcement – Scale  Risk to IP system:
  • 51. 51 IP Implications  Companies’ IP Philosophy  Protectability  IP infringement: – Types – Likelihood – Effectiveness of enforcement – Scale  Risk to IP system: depends on democratization
  • 52. 52 IP Implications  Companies’ IP Philosophy  Protectability  IP infringement: – Types – Likelihood – Effectiveness of enforcement – Scale  Risk to IP system: depends on democratization
  • 53. Materials: Golden Age
  • 54. 54 Materials “Materials are key to the future success of 3D printing” Wohlers
  • 55. 55 Ordinary Materials  A growing range of printable materials: – Plastics – Metals – Ceramics – Food – Glass – Wood
  • 56. 56 Star Trek Materials  Liquid metal – NC State University – Flexible, stretchable – Alloy of gallium and indium – Liquid at room temperature – “self-healing”  mechanically  electrically
  • 57. 57 Star Trek Materials  Cambridge U & PARC:  Thin film transistor  U of Warwick: – Carbomorph  Conductive plastic
  • 58. 58 Star Trek Materials  Graphene – Flexible – Transparent – Conductive – Harder than diamond – 200x stronger than steel steel  Graphene Flagship – €1 billion European Commission Initiative – 75 institutions and partners, 17 European countries  Graphene 3D Labs/Lomiko Metals
  • 59. 59 Star Trek Materials  Chiplets (Xerox PARC) – Grain of sand – Containing intelligent data – Microscopic electronic building blocks  Self-forming Metal – Tsinghua University – Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • 60. 60 Star Trek Materials  Bio-composites – Ames Research Center/NASA  “Biomaterials out of thin air: in situ, on-demand printing of advanced biocomposites” – 3D printing cells  from molecules in surrounding environment – into useable material
  • 61. 61 Beyond Star Trek: 4D Materials  University of Pittsburgh, Harvard School of Engineering, University of Illinois – U.S. Army grant  Materials that modify their own structures at the macro level – “Rather than construct a static material or one that simply changes its shape, we’re proposing the development of adaptive, biomimetic composites that re-program their shape, properties or functionality on demand, based upon external stimuli”
  • 62. 62 IP Implications  Companies’ IP Philosophy  Protectability  IP infringement: – Types: PATENT, COPYRIGHT, TRADE SECRET, TM – Likelihood – Effectiveness of enforcement – Scale  Risk to IP system: – LOW
  • 63. 3D Printing Away From Control
  • 64. 64 3DP Away from Control  Anyone with a digital design: – Bypass traditional supply chain – Self-manufacture  Scanning: – Wildcard  “Good enough”
  • 65. 65 3DP Away from Control  Hasbro & 3D Systems  Digital Dollhouse  LEGO  BARBIE  Complex Structures???
  • 66. Why the Experts Are Wrong
  • 67. 67 Why the Experts Are Wrong – “Most 3DP sales will be industrial” – “Most homes will not have 3DP anytime soon” – “Home 3DP will be unsophisticated”
  • 68. 68 Why the Experts Are Wrong  Except this one: – Avi says: “We live in exponential times”
  • 69. 69 Why the Experts Are Wrong  And this one: “I think every home within 10 years, probably less than that, will have its own 3D printer, just as many homes now have a 2D or laser printer” Andy Bird, Chairman, Disney International
  • 70. 70 Why the Experts Are Wrong  Michigan Tech: – Save $2K/yr printing 27 things  Sudan and Uganda
  • 71. 71 Why the Experts Are Wrong
  • 72. 72 Why the Experts Are Wrong  Metal Printers for the Home – i-AM (inkjet) – Vader (inkjet) – Mini Metal Maker (clay)  Michigan Tech Metal Printer – Low Cost – Open Source
  • 73. 73 Why the Experts Are Wrong  MARKFORG3D  Cartesian ARGENTUM  $5M vs. $400
  • 74. 74 Why the Experts Are Wrong  Think Outside the Box
  • 75. Why 3DP Will Rock The IP World
  • 76. 76 Rocking the IP World  Cuts across all IP  Cuts across ALL technology and products  Anyone can: – Recreate an existing product design – Manufacture – Distribute  Gartner: $100B by 2018
  • 77. 77 Rocking the IP World Internet + 3DP = . . . .
  • 78. 78 Rocking the IP World Internet + 3DP = powerful tool for: avoiding & defeating IP
  • 79. 79 Rocking the IP World “There is no reason for patent and trademark law to repeat the mistakes of copyright, but there is every reason to think that these mistakes will be repeated” Desai & Magliocca
  • 80. Economic Implications of AWC
  • 81. 81 Short Term  Branded Products  Indie Designs  Parts  Mass Market Items
  • 82. 82 Longer Term  5 Is (Eyes) = Major disruption of IP models – Infringement – Identification – Impractical or Impossible – Irrelevant  Bigger Issue: Why buy branded products?  Biggest issue: Disruption of mass production – Eliminates quasi-IP protection of economies of scale
  • 83. 83 The BIG Picture  Disruptive Game Changers: – Digital Revolution  Early Apple ad: “create dazzling color displays” and “invent your own Pong games”  What’s the Internet?  Why would I need a Smart Phone?
  • 84. 84 The BIG Picture  3DP Revolution – Same questions – Elements falling into place Economist 4/12: “3rd industrial revolution”
  • 85. 85 Disruption Checklist  Industrial scale – Large build platform – Speed or scale  Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials – Ability to print complex structures – Micro scale printing – Hybrid machines – Innovators, especially . . .
  • 86. 86 Disruption Checklist  Industrial scale – Large build platform – Speed or scale  Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials – Ability to print complex structures – Micro scale printing – Hybrid machines – Innovators, especially . . .
  • 87. 87 Disruption Checklist  Industrial scale – Large build platform – Speed or scale  Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials Loughborough U FACTUM HSS – Ability to print complex structures – Micro scale printing – Hybrid machines – Innovators, especially . . . .
  • 88. 88 Disruption Checklist  Industrial scale – Large build platform – Speed or scale  Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials – Ability to print complex structures – Micro scale printing – Hybrid machines – Innovators, especially . . .
  • 89. 89 Disruption Checklist  Industrial scale – Large build platform – Speed or scale  Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials – Ability to print complex structures – Micro scale printing – Hybrid machines – Innovators, especially . . .
  • 90. 90 Disruption Checklist  Industrial scale – Large build platform – Speed or scale  Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials – Ability to print complex structures – Micro scale printing – Hybrid machines – Innovators, especially . . .
  • 91. 91 Disruption Checklist  Industrial scale – Large build platform – Speed or scale  Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials – Ability to print complex structures – Micro scale printing – Hybrid machines – Innovators, especially . . .
  • 92. 92 Disruption Checklist  Industrial scale – Large build platform – Speed or scale  Industrial or Home scale --2012: 35,500 – Hybrid materials – Ability to print complex structures – Micro scale printing – Hybrid machines – Innovators, especially kids
  • 93. 93 Disruption Checklist  One more thing:
  • 94. 94 Disruption Checklist  One more thing: – Ability to do all of this away from control  At home  Uncontrolled sources
  • 95. 95 Disruption Checklist  One more thing: – Ability to do all of this away from control  At home  Uncontrolled sources
  • 96. Welcome to the Revolution
  • 97. 97 Welcome to the Revolution  Morris: 3D printing “tsunami” will overwhelm 3DP supply chain  Scanning market: $4B+ by 2018  Gartner: 4 years: top retailers will 3D print custom orders
  • 98. 98 Welcome to the Revolution  Wohlers & Markets&Markets: – 2012: $2.2 B 2020: $8B – 2015: $4B 2021: 10.8B
  • 99. 99 Welcome to the Revolution  Allied Market Research: –2013: $46B –2021: $175B
  • 100. My Vision
  • 101. 101 My Vision  Within Control
  • 102. 102 My Vision  Within Control – Multi-function machines  Any functionality “We want our machines to make anything” in 5 years Epson
  • 103. 103 My Vision  Within Control – Multi-function machines  Any functionality – Radically different L&F
  • 104. 104 My Vision  Within Control – Multi-function machines  Any functionality – Radically different L&F – Complement SM
  • 105. 105 My Vision  Within Control – Multi-function machines  Any functionality – Radically different L&F – Complement SM – Every classroom
  • 106. 106 My Vision  Within Control – Multi-function machines  Any functionality – Radically different L&F – Complement SM – Every classroom – Flourishing economies
  • 107. 107 My Vision  Within Control – Multi-function machines  Any functionality – Radically different L&F – Complement SM – Every classroom – Flourishing economies  Away from Control
  • 108. 108 My Vision  Within Control – Multi-function machines  Any functionality – Radically different L&F – Complement SM – Every classroom – Flourishing economies  Away from Control – Any design, any time
  • 109. 109 My Vision  Within Control – Multi-function machines  Any functionality – Radically different L&F – Complement SM – Every classroom – Flourishing economies  Away from Control – Any design, any time – iFactory/3D Assembler
  • 110. 110 My Vision  Within Control – Multi-function machines  Any functionality – Radically different L&F – Complement SM – Every classroom – Flourishing economies  Away from Control – Any design, any time – iFactory/3D Assembler  Every home
  • 111. 111 My Vision  Within Control – Multi-function machines  Any functionality – Radically different L&F – Complement SM – Every classroom – Flourishing economies  Away from Control – Any design, any time – iFactory/3D Assembler  Every home  Any functionality
  • 112. 112 My Vision  Within Control – Multi-function machines  Any functionality – Radically different L&F – Complement SM – Every classroom – Flourishing economies  Away from Control – Any design, any time – iFactory/3D Assembler  Every home  Any functionality  Easy as a breadmaker
  • 113. 113 My Vision  Within Control – Multi-function machines  Any functionality – Radically different L&F – Complement SM – Every classroom – Flourishing economies  Away from Control – Any design, any time – iFactory  Every home  Any functionality  Easy as a breadmaker – IP increasingly irrelevant
  • 114. 114 When? “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten” Bill Gates
  • 115. 115 Takeaways Everything will change –When you can make anything
  • 116. 116 Takeaways Everything will change –When you can make anything IP, it’s not dead yet!
  • 117. 117 Thank you for your time! john.hornick@finnegan.com www.finnegan.com FOLLOW MY TWEETS: @ JHornick3D1Stop
  • 118. 118 Disclaimer These materials are public information and have been prepared solely for educational and entertainment purposes to contribute to the understanding of U.S. intellectual property law. These materials reflect only the personal views of the authors and are not a source of legal advice. It is understood that each case is fact specific, and that the appropriate solution in any case will vary. Therefore, these materials may or may not be relevant to any particular situation. Thus, the authors and Finnegan, Henderson, Farabow, Garrett & Dunner, LLP cannot be bound either philosophically or as representatives of their various present and future clients to the comments expressed in these materials. The presentation of these materials does not establish any form of attorney-client relationship with the authors or Finnegan, Henderson, Farabow, Garrett & Dunner, LLP. While every attempt was made to ensure that these materials are accurate, errors or omissions may be contained therein, for which any liability is disclaimed.