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Ben Joffe\'s Virtual Goods in Asia  at Virtual Goods Summit West
 

Ben Joffe\'s Virtual Goods in Asia at Virtual Goods Summit West

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  • http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2006-12/26/content_767613.htm
  • http://economy.donga.com/CEO/3/0104/20100703/29583723/3
  • http://stocks.finance.yahoo.co.jp/stocks/detail/?code=2121.t http://stocks.finance.yahoo.co.jp/stocks/detail/?code=3632.T&d=1y http://stocks.finance.yahoo.co.jp/stocks/detail/?code=2432.T&d=6m http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=0700.HK
  • http://metropolitician.blogs.com/scribblings_of_the_metrop/2010/06/facebook-taking-over-korea-as-predicted.html www.cyworld.com/iammicy
  • http://appstore.nate.com/ http://blog.playrubi.com/2010/07/page/2/
  • http://apps.yozm.daum.net/ http://apps.naver.com/
  • http://www.tri-d.com/Proposal-Social_Network_Game.pdf http://www.puppyred.com/demo/jsp/contact_main.jsp http://www.tri-d.com/Intro_to_Puppyred.pdf http://appstore.nate.com/Apps/Canvas?apps_no=1153&use_network=CY
  • http://www.insidesocialgames.com/2010/10/07/how-design-choices-impact-virtual-goods-purchases-in-games/
  • http://www.insidesocialgames.com/2010/10/07/how-design-choices-impact-virtual-goods-purchases-in-games/
  • http://news.mmosite.com/content/2010-09-25/korean_game_market_value_hits_5_9bn_in_2009.shtml
  • 넥슨 김정주 사장 http://cafe.chosun.com/club.menu.bbs.read.screen?p_club_id=y http://www.koreagamewatch.com/wp/companies-2/nexon-holdingsnxc/oung&p_menu_id=2&message_id=365603
  • http://www.gamepron.com/news/2010/04/12/starcraft-cheating-scandal-rocks-korea/ http://www.the-games-blog.com/bad-week-for-korean-gamers-scandals-and-curfews/
  • http://asiajin.com/blog/2009/09/21/mixi-echo-becomes-mixi-voice-to-chase-twitter/ http://japan.cnet.com/news/business/story/0,3800104746,20414363,00.htm
  • http://asiajin.com/blog/2010/09/10/mixi-launches-social-app-platform-for-smartphone-users-too/
  • http://www.dena.jp/en/ir/pdf/FY10Q1%20Operating%20Results.pdf
  • Launch | 2004 IPO | December 2008 Users | 10 million (2009.4) Under 30 y/o | 61% SNS market share | 12% Monthly PV | 121,8 billion Revenue 1Q09 | 29 MEUR - B2C | 21.6 MEUR - Advertising | 7.4 MEUR Net profit 1Q09 | 9.9 MEUR
  • Gree: please forget our PC site! http://asiajin.com/blog/2009/10/26/
  • Financials | http://eir.eol.co.jp/EIR/View.aspx?cat=yuho_pdf&sid=1483363 Latest quarter | http://eir.eol.co.jp/EIR/View.aspx?template=ir_material&sid=6831&code=3632
  • http://247wallst.com/2010/07/21/google-images-hits-one-billion-page-views-a-day/
  • http://gree.co.jp/news/press/2010/1007.html
  • http://gree.co.jp/news/press/2010/0930.html
  • GREE | http://japan.cnet.com/mobile/story/0,3800078151,20368425,00.htm http://www.nikkeibp.co.jp/news/it08q1/563342/
  • http://ir.cyberagent.co.jp/ir_e/
  • http://ir.cyberagent.co.jp/ir_e/result/2010/pdf/2q_presentation_eng.pdf
  • http://ir.cyberagent.co.jp/ir_e/result/2010/pdf/2q_presentation_eng.pdf
  • http://venturebeat.com/2010/07/07/facebook-emerging-markets/
  • http://www.gamesbrief.com/2010/06/the-online-games-market-was-worth-15-billion-in-2009-and-will-grow-to-20-billion-in-2010/ http://news.cnet.com/8301-13846_3-10374667-62.html
  • http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/following-in-tencent-qqs-footsteps-mobile-community-mig33-proves-there-is-real-money-in-developing-markets-89485502.html http://mobile.venturebeat.com/2010/07/15/mig33s-virtual-gifts-business-grows-400-percent-in-second-quarter/ http://mobile.venturebeat.com/2010/03/17/mig33s-move-to-asia-puts-it-head-to-head-with-chinas-mobile-chat-king/
  • http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/following-in-tencent-qqs-footsteps-mobile-community-mig33-proves-there-is-real-money-in-developing-markets-89485502.html http://mobile.venturebeat.com/2010/07/15/mig33s-virtual-gifts-business-grows-400-percent-in-second-quarter/ http://mobile.venturebeat.com/2010/03/17/mig33s-move-to-asia-puts-it-head-to-head-with-chinas-mobile-chat-king/
  • http://www.insidevirtualgoods.com/us-virtual-goods/ http://www.virtualgoodsnews.com/2009/10/chinas-online-games-worth-over-900m-in-q2-alone.html
  • http://www.insidevirtualgoods.com/us-virtual-goods/ http://www.virtualgoodsnews.com/2009/10/chinas-online-games-worth-over-900m-in-q2-alone.html Virtual goods = $6B in china, $2B?? In japan, $2B? in Korea = $9B
  • http://blog.digitalchocolate.com/?p=518
  • http://www.koreaittimes.com/story/3969/global-game-hub-center-launched-note-high-hopes
  • http://eir.eol.co.jp/EIR/View.aspx?cat=tdnet&sid=828335
  • http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:J1-VknkYzToJ:www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2010/07/123_30556.html+nexon+holdings+ceo&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a http://venturebeat.com/2010/10/04/nexon-invests-in-spanish-developer-boombang-games/ http://venturebeat.com/2010/05/27/korean-online-game-firm-nexon-acquires-stake-in-gamehi-for-59m-exclusive/ http://www.industrygamers.com/news/nexon-acquires-mmo-developer-ndoors/ http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ERTS
  • http://techcrunch.com/2010/09/24/japanese-company-dena-expands-footprint-in-u-s-invests-in-social-game-studio-astro-ape/ http://techcrunch.com/2010/09/14/japanese-company-dena-buys-mobile-social-gaming-studio-gameview/ http://techcrunch.com/2010/04/02/aurora-feint-debuts-social-gaming-app-for-the-ipad/ http://techcrunch.com/2010/06/15/japanese-gaming-company-dena-sets-up-27-5-million-investment-fund/ http://www.icebreakgames.com/
  • http://techcrunch.com/2010/07/14/naspers-dst/ http://venturebeat.com/2009/12/15/zynga-raises-180m-from-russian-investor-digital-sky-technologies/ http://techcrunch.com/2009/05/26/facebook-takes-that-200-million-investment-from-the-russians-at-a-10-billion-valuation/ http://techcrunch.com/2010/06/20/what-valley-companies-should-know-about-tencent/ http://www.economist.com/node/16539424?story_id=16539424 http://www.thomascrampton.com/social-media/naspers-dst-tencent/ http://www.allfacebook.com/dst-now-owns-10-percent-of-facebook-2010-05 http://www.crunchbase.com/company/digital-sky-technologies http://dst-global.com/About http://eu.techcrunch.com/2010/08/31/dst-completes-purchase-of-odnoklassniki-ru-exits-nasza-klasa-pl/
  • http://www.naspers.co.za/cmsAdmin/uploads/Fact-sheet-Sept-2010_002.pdf http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=NPNJn.J

Ben Joffe\'s Virtual Goods in Asia  at Virtual Goods Summit West Ben Joffe\'s Virtual Goods in Asia at Virtual Goods Summit West Presentation Transcript

  • Digital Goods, Real Billions Asia’s Digital Life & What it means for the West @benjaminjoffe | CEO, +8* Virtual Goods Summit, San Francisco | 2010.10
  • @benjaminjoffe
  • 4 years 1 year 5 years
    • CEO, Plus Eight Star | www.plus8star.com
      • Best practices from Asia’s digital space
      • Research, Strategy & “Innovation Arbitrage”
    • Clients
    • Speaker
      • 100+ talks in 16 countries
    • Advisor
    • Investor in Asia-based global companies
    Angel Investor, Advisor, Keynote Speaker
  • My Interests
    • Technology, Sociology and Anthropology
    • Virtual economies
    • Digital third places
    • Artificial artificial intelligence (AAI)
    • Online social dynamics
  • All the world’s a… All the world’s a stage … All the world’s a game … … And one man in his time plays many avatars . William Shakespeare Gabe Zichermann Benjamin Joffe
    • Introduction Quiz!
    • Chapter 1 South Korea
    • Chapter 3 Japan
    • Chapter 4 China
    • Chapter 5 Rest of Asia
    • Chapter 6 Conclusions
    • Chapter 7 Globalization
  • Quiz!
  • Quiz!
  • Quiz
  • Quiz
  • Quiz
  • Quiz
  • Quiz
  • More than Facebook and USA
    • Facebook
    • LinkedIn
    • QQ (Tencent)
    • Qzone
    • RenRen
    • Kaixin001
    • Xiaonei
    • 51.com
    • Mixi
    • Mobile Game Town
    • Gree
    • Cyworld
    • Friendster
    And more…
  • Billion Dollar Brands
    • Facebook
    • LinkedIn
    • QQ (Tencent)
    • Qzone
    • RenRen
    • Kaixin001
    • Xiaonei
    • 51.com
    • Mixi
    • Mobile Game Town
    • Gree
    • Cyworld
    • Friendster
    And more… $B $B $B $B $B $B $B
  • Market Caps (2010.10) $780M $3.3B $43B $4.2B
  • ngmoco:) news $400M < 2010 Profit!
  • South Korea
  • Cyworld
    • SNS/VG pioneer since 10 years ago
      • Stagnant for several years
      • “The new MySpace”?
  • 2009.10 | Nate App Store
    • Leverages Nate’s reach
    • Semi-open
    • Slow rise (2M users)
    • Rev share (70/30)
  • Portals join the dance
    • .
    • Naver Social Apps
    • .
    • Yozm by Daum
    • Results
      • Just started
      • No social graph
  • Facebook Rising
    • Facebook in Korea
      • Usage growing
      • Local office
      • Hired from Cyworld
    • Why?
      • Users bored of Cyworld
      • Virtual goods market
      • Games market
  • Virtual Worlds
    • 3D virtual worlds still early, even for Korea
      • Non-gaming not working
      • Nurien (3D social world) fail, revamp into social app
    • Only PuppyRed seems successful
      • Yet not that big…
      • $4M in 2008, equivalent to $40M in US? (= IMVU)
  •  
  • PuppyRed
  • PuppyRed | Conversion
    • 225,000 MAU
      • 18,000 paying (8%)
      • Top 2,000 = 46% sales
    • Ideas
      • Ratio > Social games
      • 1% users = 50% sales
    Source: Inside Social Games, Oct 2010, PuppyRed data from Nov 2009 to Jan 2010
  • PuppyRed | Monetizing
    • Time investment
      • Since reg.
      • In-world
    • Friends
      • More value to items
      • Gifts
    • Items balance
      • Limit free items
      • Large inventory (15,000+)
    Source: Inside Social Games, Oct 2010, PuppyRed data from Nov 2009 to Jan 2010
  • Online Games
    • Online games market $3.3 billion?
    • Leaders Nexon, NHN, NC Soft
    • Expanding overseas China, Japan, US, Emerging markets
    Source: KOCCA
  • Answer
    • #1 in Online Gaming
    • Pioneer in virtual goods
    • First MMO in 1996!
    Min Seo, CEO
  • Nexon Today
    • Revenue 2009: $561 million (+56%)
        • Over half from overseas (first in 2009 !)
    • Some famous games
        • Kart Rider (200M reg. users)
        • Dungeon & Fighter (200M reg. users)
        • Maple Story (95M reg. users)
        • Mabinogi
        • Combat Arms (FPS)
        • Sudden Attack (FPS)
        • Etc.
    Source: Nexon
  • Foreign Players in Korea?
    • Some limited successes…
  •  
  • And… Starcraft Cheating Scandal!
    • April-May 2010
    • Largest scandal in e-sports history in Korea
    • 16 pro gamers involved in match set-ups & illegal betting.
    Pro Gamer sAviOr (Ja Mae-Yoon)
  • Japan
  • Mobile SNS Make a Killing
    • Revenue total > $1 billion !
    • All 3 have a mobile app platform
    • Mass promotion TV, Billboards, Posters…
    • Publish + Develop 1 st , 2 nd , 3 rd Party dev.
  • Mixi
    • Inspired by
    • 21 million users
      • 14 million MAU
    • Friends (PC)
    • Mobile (mobile)
    • FB (apps, “like”)
    • Twitter (micro-blog)
    • Pageviews
      • Mobile 28 billion PV
      • PC 5 billion PV
  • Mixi
    • Revenue 2009 $166 million
      • Profit margin 20%
    • 2Q2010 $49M
      • Profit margin 25%
      • Run rate 2010 $200M
  • Mixi | Users
    • Gender-Balanced
    • 90% above 20 y.o.
    Total Mobile Mobile Total
  • Mixi | Pageviews Applications Platform 2009.08 Mobile 2009.10 PC Ad prices for mobile = 1/3 of PC price
  • Mixi | Apps
    • Apps
      • PC > 1,000
      • Mobile > 600
    • Apps contribution
      • Minor for revenue <10%
      • High for PV
    • Smartphone UI “Mixi Touch”
    Machi Tsuku (3M MAU) by Unoh / Zynga Japan Source: Masaru Ikeda @ Asiajin
  • Answer
    • CEO of DeNA
    • Operates “Mobile Game Town”, a top mobile SNS in Japan
    Tomoko Namba, CEO
  • DeNA
    • Revenue 2009 $517 million
      • Profit 2009 $228 million (44%)
    • Revenue 2Q2010 $279 million
      • Profit 2Q2010 $138 million (49%)
      • 90% from digital goods
    • On track for $1 billion in 2010
  • DeNA | Sales
  • Mobile Game Town| Sales Breakdown 78% 12% 9% 1% $250 million (2010.04~06)
  • Mobile Game Town | Users
    • 20 million users
    • 74% over 20 y.o.
  • Mobile Game Town | Open Platform
    • 154 partners companies
    • 350 titles (July 2010)
    • In-house games too
    • Avatars in open platform games too
    • Common currency
  • DeNA | Target: Global Leader
  • Answer
    • CEO of GREE, top mobile SNS in Japan
    • #2 youngest self-made billionaire in the world (after Mark Zuckerberg)
    Yoshikazu Tanaka, CEO
  • Gree Home Advertising Avatars & items Games Advertising & Affiliates B2C virtual goods (avatar + games)
  • GREE | Service Strategy Media Ad Sales VG Sales Social Games Virtual Goods SNS Diary/Notes Q&A Community/BBS Page views Members GREE
  • GREE
    • ARPU = $2.2 / month!
    • ARPPU > $20?
    20M $133M Users Revenue 2010.06 2010.04-06 Digital goods (82%) Ads (18%)
  • GREE
    • Year to June 2010
      • Sales $430 million
      • Operating profit $240 million ( 56% )
    • Year to June 2011
      • Apr-Jun 2010 $133 million
      • 2011 revenue run rate >$600 million
  • GREE | Monthly Page Views 35.7 Billion Google Images = 1 billion/day
  • GREE
    • 2010.06 | Open platform
    • 2010.10 | Non-gaming apps (27 coming up)
  • 2010.09 | GREE on iPhone ( + Android soon)
  • Community Safety
    • DeNA
      • 861 employees…
      • Many doing content monitoring
      • Monitoring 24/7 since 2006.11
      • “Patrol Center” built in 2008.03
    Pipo-kun Tokyo Police Mascot Gree’s Patrol Center
  • Have you heard of…?
  • CyberAgent
    • History
      • Started as ad network
      • Branched into blogs (10M users) , virtual world & social games
      • 1,900 employees
    • Sales 2009 $1.1 billion
      • Profit 2009 $55 million
    • Sales 2010 (E) $1.1 billion
      • Profit 2010 (E) $98 million
  • | Social Games
    • DeNA 10 titles
    • Gree 3 titles
    • Mixi 8 titles
    • Facebook 7 titles
    • $4M in July 2010
      • Run-rate 2010 = $50M ( > ngmoco ? )
    | Social Games
  • | 2D Virtual World
    • Promotion
      • Leveraging Ameba’s blog platform
      • TV ads
    • Paying Users
      • 80% are 20 to 40 y.o.
      • 70% female
    • Payment
      • 68% Mobile, 20% Webmoney, 12% Credit Card
    | 2D Virtual World
    • April-June 2010 $10 million
    | Revenue split
  • | Subs & ARPU
        • 4.3 million users (2010.06)
        • monthly ARPU = $15
  • | Fishing Game
  • Facebook Making Inroads
    • Facebook in Japan
      • Growing (1.2M)
      • Mobile JP version
    • Why?
      • GDP
      • Online advertising
      • Virtual goods
      • Mobile!
    KDDI’s Summer Line-Up
  • Foreign Players in Japan
    • Zynga
      • Acquired local company Unoh
      • JV with Yahoo! Japan (#1 portal) for games
    • Chinese social games doing well
      • Rekoo , Rakoo , Elex
      • … but for how long?
    • Online games growing too
      • Perfect World (China) acquired local licensee
  • China
  • Social Games Growing But…
    • Fragmented market
      • 4 competing social networks
      • Facebook still blocked
    • SNS revenue not great (esp. for third parties)
      • Low advertising
      • Platforms develop games in-house
      • Rev share variable & often unattractive
  • …Online Games Still Dominate
    • Online games biggest money maker
      • $900M in 2Q2010
      • Tencent (20%), Shanda (20%), Netease (13%)
    • Social networks channel users to MMOs
    • China = 30% of global online games market
      • $4 billion in 2010?
    Source: iResearch, Lazard Capital Markets
  • Answer
    • CEO of Tencent!
    • #3 Internet company in the world
    Ma Huateng (Pony), CEO
  • QQ IM & QZone
  • Digital Goods?
    • Identity related
    • Game related
    • Music related
    • And more…
  • Tencent Bigger Than Ever?
    • Sales 2009 $1.8 billion
      • Net profit 2009 42% (= $750M)
    • Sales 1H2010 $1.3 billion
      • Run rate 2010 (E) $2.5 billion (1/3 games)
      • Profit 2010 (E) $1 billion
    • Internet penetration still only 30%!
  • PHOTO: MOBILE PHONE, BEIJING, APRIL 2010 © Benjamin Joffe / Plus Eight Star Ltd.
  • PHOTO: MOBILE PHONE, BEIJING, APRIL 2010 © Benjamin Joffe / Plus Eight Star Ltd. Hardware Innovation: “Shanzhai” ( 山寨 )
  • PHOTO: MOBILE PHONE, BEIJING, APRIL 2010 © Benjamin Joffe / Plus Eight Star Ltd.
  • QQ Farm
  • Rest of Asia
  • Time-Shifted Markets
    • Vietnam
      • ~$150M from online games
      • 86 million people
      • 4-5 years behind china
    • Indonesia
      • #3 on Facebook!
      • 238 million people!
      • Behind Vietnam
    • Other places: Thailand (66M), Philippines (92M), etc.
    • Biggest potential: online games & mobile SNS
    Virtual Goods Time Machine
  • Mig33
    • “We have decided we want to be like QQ for mobile in the rest of the emerging world .”
      • Steven Goh, CEO
    Source: VentureBeat , March 2010
  • Mig33
    • “We have decided we want to be like QQ for mobile in the rest of the emerging world .”
      • Steven Goh, CEO
    Source: VentureBeat , March 2010 Made in China Not iPhone! Not rich countries!
  • About Mig33
    • Nationality
        • Founders from Australia
        • Moved to Silicon Valley
        • Relocated to Singapore
    • Users
        • India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, South Africa…
  • Conclusions
  • Conclusions
    • Social games = growing fast
    • Online games still > Social games (except Japan)
    • Massive ads (TV, billboards, etc.) if ROI is good!
    • Media properties entering social (portals, blogs)
    • SNS can channel users to MMOs with better ROI
    • Mobile great in emerging & advanced markets
  • Conclusions
    • CJK companies expanding globally
    • Transition to digital goods is a tidal wave
    • Epiphanies in the West like Korea 10 years ago
  • Asia: $7 Billion USA: $1 Billion US market potential $35 Billion ? Digital Goods in 2009 Source: +8* , October 2009
  • Digital Goods in 2010 Asia: $10 Billion USA: $2 Billion Source: +8* , October 2010
  • $100 billion within the decade?
    • “ The virtual goods market would likely exceed globally $100 billion within this decade .”
    Trip Hawkins CEO, Digital Chocolate Founder, Electronic Arts Source: Trip’s OMG Blog , April 2010
  • Market Potential?
    • From analog to digital
      • Global video game market $35 billion
      • In Korea >50% of ALL GAMES = online games
    • Potential = all games in the world
      • Global game market $120 billion
      • With digital goods dominant model?
  • Globalization Durian Strudel (Singapore)
  • Ideas, Talent & Markets
    • Ideas First farm game = made in China!
    • Dev. Zynga (JP, CN) Playfish (CN) Kabam (CN)
    • Market Facebook (JP, KR, SG, SEA w/ MOL) Zynga (JV with Softbank for JP) Rockyou (JP), Others?
  • Platform Partnership
    • Cyworld, Mixi, RenRen join forces for one-stop “Social Application Platform”
    • Catching up on analytics to leapfrog Facebook?
    • For reference
        • Cyword 25M users (1999, Korea)
        • Mixi 21M users (2004, Japan)
        • RenRen 150M users (2005, China)
    Source: Mixi , September 2010
  • Virtual Goods in Asia The US Gold Rush Begins Benjamin Joffe | CEO, Plus Eight Star Virtual Goods Summit, San Francisco | 2009.10 Chinese family in Oregon during the Gold Rush
  • Nexon
    • Ndoor M&A 2010.05 Korea
    • GameHi M&A 2010.05 Korea
    • BoomBang Invest. 2010.10 Spain
    • Disney offering $6 billion ? (rumor)
        • EA’s market cap is $5.8 billion… (2010.10)
    Source: +8*, Nexon
  • DeNA
    • ngmoco:) M&A USA
    • Astro Ape Invest. USA
    • Aurora Feint Invest. USA
    • GameView M&A USA
    • Icebreak M&A USA
    • TX.com.cn M&A China
    • Social Gaming Fund of $27.5 million
  • Tencent
    • Sanook Invest. 2010.08 Thailand
    • Comsenz M&A 2010.08 China
    • Shenzhen DN M&A 2010.04 China
    • DST Invest. 2010.04 Russia
    • Riot Games Invest. 2009.09 USA
    • Outspark Invest. 2008.01 USA
  • Other Chinese Companies
    • Emerging markets, Japan, US
    • Rekoo & Yicha doing great with social games
    • Shanda buys Mochi Media (2010.01, $80M)
  • China + Russia + South Africa 29% 10% 35% $35B $3B $18B Source: +8* , October 2010
  • DST | Digital Sky Technologies
    • Invested $180M in Zynga
    • Invested ~$350M in Facebook (~10%)
    • Invested $135M in Groupon
    • Acquired ICQ for $188M
    • Mail.ru (portal), Astrum (games)
      • 70% of all PV in the Russian speaking Internet
  • NASPERS
  • From Asia to the World Durian Strudel (Singapore)
  • Paradise Paintball by Cmune
    • World’s first FPS on social networks!
    • Over 500,000 users in open beta
      • “ Paradise Paintball – you feel like you’re playing a console game.” - Gareth Davis, Games Platform Manager, Facebook
      • “ Abandoned my clan, crops have withered and my cafe has gone bankrupt. Thank you for creating the first real game on Facebook!” – Facebook user
  • Paradise Paintball | World’s First Social FPS! www.facebook.com/paradisepaintball www.cmune.com Disclosure I am an investor in Cmune
      • What we do
          • Best practices from Asia
          • Digital Research & Strategy
      • Clients sample
      • Contacts
          • [email_address]
          • @benjaminjoffe
          • www.slideshare.net/plus8star
    Asia is part of your world too! +81 | Japan +82 | Korea +86 | China Telecom & Internet + Added Value * High quality