Modeling the Linkages between Climate Change, Food Security, and Population

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Presentation by Scott Moreland and Ellen Smith for the IUSSP International Population Conference in August 2013.

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  • Welcome to [event name…].Today we are pleased to share with you the results of a recent analysis of the linkages between climate change, food security, and population in Ethiopia. It draws on a wide range of Ethiopian and international data, including a modeling framework developed by the Futures Group, with support from the Measure Evaluation Project and the Packard Foundation. Many Ethiopians today remain vulnerable to shocks to the food system, putting them on the edge of food security. Today we will explore how climate change is expected to affect the agricultural system and the ability of Ethiopians to achieve food security. While many adaptation strategies address agricultural systems, we will also look at the other side of food security: population.
  • “The rain doesn’t come at the usual, expected time and the temperature is increasing. There are many problems because of climate change, and the indigenous way of farming can’t support my family anymore.”
  • First let’s review where Ethiopia is today in several relevant areas.
  • The USFamine Early Warning System (FEWS) monitors the food situation in Africa on a continuous basis. In their latest assessment much of Ethiopia today is facing a precarious food security situation. The map shows that large parts of the country are considered in a state of emergency, crisis, or stressed.
  • Our population projections show that Ethiopia’s population will exceed 150 million by 2050. In a scenario of lower population growth, we estimate a 2050 population of 154 million. In a scenario of higher population growth, we estimate a 2050 population of 194 million.
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  • Modeling the Linkages between Climate Change, Food Security, and Population

    1. 1. PhotobyWFP/MarioDiBari 1 Modeling the Linkages between Climate Change, Food Security and Population IUSSP August 2013. Scott Moreland and Ellen Smith Session 224 8.30.13
    2. 2. • Source: Adapting to Climate Change in Africa, Melanie Allen, December 22, 2008, www.ifpri.org “The rain doesn’t come at the usual, expected time and the temperature is increasing. There are many problems because of climate change, and the indigenous way of farming can’t support my family anymore.” Farmer near the village of Harfu-Lole, Ethiopia PhotobyIFPRI 2
    3. 3. “Growing demand for food must be met against a backdrop of rising global temperatures and changing patterns of precipitation. ………The extent to which adaptation occurs (for example through the development of crops and production methods adapted to new conditions) will critically influence how climate change affects the food system.” Growing concern that climate change threatens food availability
    4. 4. Some recognition of population growth’s impact on food security “Future demand for food will thus be influenced by complex economic and social drivers acting through population growth.” Source: The Future of Food and farming (2011), Final report, Govt. Office for Science, London “The goal of achieving food security will be made more difficult if population growth rates cannot be reduced. The economic and environmental costs of augmenting per capita food production may well prove too great for countries whose populations grow faster than their economies, resulting in greater poverty and fewer resources to fight it.” Source: FAO 2005, PAI http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Fact_Sheets/FS30/Summary.shtml “A partial explanation for food insecurity is that the greatly increased population of the Greater Horn may have approached or exceeded the carrying capacity of the fragile environment in some areas. High population growth must be dealt with immediately, even though the impact of policies implemented now will only occur over the long-term.” USAID Breaking the Cycle of Despair: President Clinton's Initiative on the Horn of Africa, http://www.usaid.gov/regions/afr/ghai/cycle/causes.html
    5. 5. Two responses to climate change Mitigation Adaptation
    6. 6. Climate change and agriculture Climate change affects agricultural outputs through: – Rainfall (too much or too little) – Carbon dioxide fertilization – Temperatures – Changes in length of growing seasons
    7. 7. There is growing scientific evidence that yields are being threatened by climate change. Source: Nature Climate Change, 13 March 2011
    8. 8. Factors influencing the demand for food • Nutritional requirements • Income • Price • Population size and composition by age, sex and rural-urban
    9. 9. Adaptation to climate change choices in agriculture • Flood protection • Drought tolerant crop varieties • Irrigation • Better mechanization • Increased fertilizer use • Rainwater storage • Damming glacial lakes • Geo-engineering • Reduced demand via family planning
    10. 10. To understand the dynamic and complex linkages we developed a model that links population, food requirements and food supply and demand. Model was piloted in Ethiopia. • Population Model • Food Requirements Model • Economic Model
    11. 11. Physical • Physical activity level • Weight (kg) Demographic • Base year population • Life expectancy • Migration Family Planning • Fertility rate • Method mix • Proximate determinants Economic • Yields (based on cc) • Investment rates • Land use Socioeconomic • Female mortality • Female education • Safe water Population projection • Population by age and sex • Pregnancies Food requirements GLOBE Economic Model Food security gap Daily per capita kcal required Daily per capita kcal consumed Child malnutrition Food prices Data requirements
    12. 12. The Model’s data inputs and outputs Inputs • Population data: taken from Spectrum/FP scenarios • Income and food price forecasts/assumptions • Physical activity assumptions for demographic groups • Diet composition • Agricultural inputs: land under cultivation and yield of various crops and foodstuffs under different climate change scenarios • Economic assumptions Outputs • Population by age and sex • Food energy requirements • Total demand for foodstuffs, disaggregated by type • Total production and consumption of foodstuffs, disaggregated by type • Food “gap” estimated • Nutritional impacts on population and children
    13. 13. 13 PhotobyA.Davey Application to Ethiopia
    14. 14. Ethiopia’s food security lies on the edge Food Security Outcomes, July 2011 • Source: FEWS NET and WFP 14
    15. 15. Source: UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Ethiopia, accessed at http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk In Ethiopia, the data show that average temperatures have increased in the recent past and forecasts predict this to continue.
    16. 16. Population
    17. 17. 17 Two future scenarios for fertility and family planning in Ethiopia 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% TFR(TotalFertilityRate CPR(ContraceptivePrevalenceRate) TFR CPR
    18. 18. 154 194 0 50 100 150 200 250 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Millionsofpeople • Source: Spectrum projections, authors’ calculations Ethiopia’s population is projected to exceed150 million by 2050 18 Low Population High Population
    19. 19. Age pyramids under two scenarios Slow fertility decline Fast fertility decline
    20. 20. Food requirements
    21. 21. 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Average daily per capita kcal requirements Low population growth High population growth
    22. 22. Men 30% Women 25% Children 45% National kcal needs, 2010 Men 39% Women 32% Children 29% National kcal needs, 2050 High Population Growth Men 42% Women 35% Children 23% National kcal needs, 2050 Low Population Growth
    23. 23. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Billionsofkcal Daily national kcal requirements Low population growth High population growth
    24. 24. GLOBE Economic Model
    25. 25. GLOBE Economic Model Daily per capita kcal consumed by food category Food Balance Sheet kcal by food category Growth rates of food consumption by food category Determination of Food Consumption Population Scenarios Climate Change Assumptions Economic Assumptions
    26. 26. Economic Assumptions: Ethiopia Per Annum Capital Stock Growth 2.50% Ag land growth 0.90% Non food mfg productivity growth 4% Agproductivity growth 1.30% Food processing productivity growth 4%
    27. 27. FAO Food Balance Sheet for Ethiopia, 2007 Daily kcal food consumption per capita Cereals 1305 Starchy roots 264 Sugar crops 0 Sugar & sweetners 56 Pulses 147 Treenuts 7 Oilcrops 9 Vegetable oils 40 Vegetables 11 Fruits 16 Stimulants 1 Spices 12 Alcoholic beverages 16 Meat and offals 50 Animal fats 15 Eggs 2 Milk 30 Seafood and fish 0 Other aquatic products 0 miscellaneous 0 Total 1981
    28. 28. Crop yields and climate change assumptions
    29. 29. 65.9% 59.6% 58.6% 58.9% 20.7% 14.2% 14.1% 14.4% 2.5% 9.6% 10.5% 10.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2050: No climate change, high population growth 2050: Climate change, high population growth 2050: Climate change, low population growth Percentageoftotaldiet Changes in Dietary Composition: fewer cereals, roots and tubers, more meat Others Animal fats Meat & Offals Sugar & Sweetners Fruits and Vegetables Roots, Tubers, and Pulses Cereals
    30. 30. 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Average daily per capita kcal consumption No climate change, high population growth Climate change, high population growth Climate change, low population growth
    31. 31. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Average daily per capita kcal shortfall (requirements - consumption) No climate change, high population growth Climate change, high population growth Climate change, low population growth
    32. 32. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2020 2030 2040 2050 Percentage change in wheat prices No climate change, high population growth Climate change, high population growth
    33. 33. • Climate change is affecting agricultural systems. • Food systems adaptation strategies are essential to securing a country’s food supply and the health of its people in the future. • Family planning is one such adaptation strategy, and also provides additional benefits. Conclusions 33

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