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Are Family Planning Programs Effective?
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Are Family Planning Programs Effective?

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The effect of family planning programs and education on fertility in Indonesia.

The effect of family planning programs and education on fertility in Indonesia.

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Are Family Planning Programs Effective? Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Are Family Planning Programs Effective?: The Effect of FP Programs and Education on Fertility in Indonesia Gustavo Angeles David Guilkey Thomas Mroz February 2008
  • 2.
    • Key questions:
      • Are FP Programs effective reducing fertility?
      • Reducing fertility: education or FP programs?
      • Do FP Programs influence non-fertility outcomes?
    • For 1 and 2: Results from numerous empirical studies:
    • - Small or no effects of FP programs on fertility
    • - Large and significant effect of education on fertility
    • Empirical results support education but weaken support for FP programs
    • However, results are questionable due to:
      • Selection process into education attainment
      • FP Programs could increase education
      • (Long-term indirect effect)
  • 3. I) Selection into education: How does it affect the estimation of program effects? Example , Preference for labor market activities Years of Education Fertility ( - ) ( - ) ( + ) Survey data : Preferences not observed Simple analysis : Lower Fertility attributed to Education when it is due to Education and Preferences Consequences : Education effect overestimated Problem widely acknowledged, but data limitations prevented corrective actions
    • Also, in complete fertility models that include education and FP Programs, overestimation of education effect induces underestimation of FP program effect.
  • 4.
    • II) FP Programs could Increase Women’s Education
    • Finding: Exposure to FP programs at start of reproductive age (10-12)
    • increases contraceptive use and reduces fertility
    • But, why?
    • Contraceptive knowledge provided by FP programs can change women’s plans : Instead of having to marry early and having many kids quickly, by controlling fertility it is possible to get the benefits of increased education and labor force participation.
    • So, FP programs might have a long-term effect, through education.
    • Empirical analysis needed to examine relationship between FP programs, education and fertility.
  • 5. Individual & Household Characteristics Community characteristics Education Fertility FP Program
  • 6.
    • Purpose : To examine the direct effect of FP programs on fertility plus the indirect effect on education, controlling for potential selectivity of schooling
    • Method : Structural model of fertility, woman’s education, age at marriage, husband’s education
    • Data : 1993 Indonesia Family Life Survey
    • 5,025 women age 13-51 in 321 clusters
    • ** Fertility, schooling, marriage and place of residence histories
    • ** Linked community & health facility survey:
    • FP Program history: Year FP first offered by different providers
  • 7. Indonesia
    • 190 million people (1993)
    • Major changes in fertility: 1971 1994
    • TFR 5.6 2.8
    • - Family Planning Program: Started in 1970; implemented in 5-year phases
  • 8.  
  • 9. Years of schooling Average Years of Schooling. Women. Indonesia, 1963-1993
  • 10.  
  • 11. So, are FP programs effective? ( Lifetime simulations)
    • I. Controlling for selective education:
    • Number of Years of Age at
    • Children Education Marriage
    • No FP program 4.9 4.6 20.0
    • With FP program 4.0 5.5 20.9
    • FP Program Effect - 0.9 + 0.9 + 0.9
    • II. Not controlling for selective education:
    • FP Program Effect - 0.1 + 1.2 +0.6
    • Simulations evaluated at 1970 govt. health expenditures and 1993 class size. Models control for age, migration, place of residency, marital status, husband’s education, year effects, FPP at age 7, regional GDP, Govt. expenditures in FP, edu, health
  • 12. But, how do FP programs compare to education programs?
    • Education program: Reduction of student-teacher ratio (class size)
    • from 17 (“poor” school) to 12 (“good” school)
    • Total effects:
    • Number of Years of Age at
    • Children Education Marriage
    • Effect of “good” schools
    • versus “poor” schools* + 0.01 + 0.3 + 0.07
    • Complete FP programs
    • versus no FP - 0.9 + 0.9 + 0.9
    • Then, FP Programs are more effective than education programs
  • 13. Conclusions
    • Effect of FP programs on fertility is severely underestimated when selective schooling is not controlled
    • FP programs influence women’s schooling (increasing it) and marriage (delaying it), so they have lasting effects on women’s life
    • Limitations of data and analytical approaches could lead to incorrect estimation of program impact and to wrong policy decisions.