New Energy For New Weather
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Professor John Byrne, PhD discusses the future of energy, energy policy, the major role solar energy will play and Copenhagen. ...

Professor John Byrne, PhD discusses the future of energy, energy policy, the major role solar energy will play and Copenhagen.

Professor John Byrne, PhD is the shared recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for advising the UN-Climate Change Council and a distinguished Professor and Director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy at University of Deleware.

This presentation was given December 4, 2009 at the Solar Energy Focus Conference: Fall 2009 hosted by the Maryland, DC, Virginia Solar Energy Industries Association (MDV-SEIA) in Gaithersburg, MD.

To learn more please visit:

www.mdvseia.camp7.org

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New Energy For New Weather New Energy For New Weather Presentation Transcript

  • SOLAR ENERGY FOCUS CONFERENCE December 4, 2009 NEW ENERGY FOR NEW WEATHER John Byrne Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
  • Climbing Conventional Energy Prices: U.S. Residential Prices (Nominal) 300% 275% U.S. Energy Price Increases NG 250% Gasoline Heating Oil 225% Electricity 200% 175% 150% 125% Yr 2000 Price 75% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: U.S. EIA database and Annual Energy Outlook (2009) Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
  • Energy Expenditures as % of US GDP 9.8% of GDP in 2008 Highest in 25 yrs Source: Data used to prepare EIA Annual Energy Outlook, March 2009 Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
  • February 23, 2002 March 5, 2002 January 31, 2002
  • World GHG Emissions Reduction Scenario 60% Reduction from World 1990 Levels by 2050 1990 2025 2050 +37% 25.0 16.5 14.9 Ky 1990 Annex I Benchmark +20% oto Annex I World CO2e Per Capita World CO2e Per Capita 20.0 13.2 11.9 1990 Non-Annex I Non-Annex -20% -20% 15.0 10.0 8.9 -40% -40% 10.0 6.7 6.0 -60% -60% 5.0 3.3 2.2 -80% -80% 3.3 2.2 2.0 -100% -100% 0.0 0.0 0.0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Source: Based on John Byrne et al (2008) Undoing Atmospheric Harm: Civil Action to Shrink the Carbon Footprint.” In Urban Energy Transition: Footprint.” Source: Based on John Byrne et al (2008) Undoing Atmospheric Harm: Civil Action to Shrink the Carbon Footprint.” In Urban Energy Transition: From Fossil Fuels to Renewable Power. P. Droege ed. Oxford, UK: Elsevier. Pp. 27-54. See also Byrne et al (2004) “Reclaiming the atmospheric 27- From Fossil Fuels to Renewable Power. P. Droege ed. Oxford, UK: Elsevier. Pp. 27-54. See also Byrne et al (2004) “Reclaiming the atmospheric commons: Beyond Kyoto.” In V.I. Grover (ed.), Climate Change: Perspectives Five Years After Kyoto. Chapter 21. Plymouth, UK: Science Kyoto.” commons: Beyond Kyoto.” In V.I. Grover (ed.), Climate Change: Perspectives Five Years After Kyoto. Chapter 21. Plymouth, UK: Science Publishers, Inc. Publishers, Inc. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
  • Estimates of the Technical Potential of 3,500 Renewable Energy Resources Johansson et al (2004), WEC (2000) 3,000 de Vries (2007) 2,500 50 Exajoules 40 Exajoules 30 2,000 20 10 0 1,500 Hydropower Ocean 1,000 500 0 Solar Wind Geothermal Biomass * Assumes current technology conversion efficiencies. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
  • EXPERIENCE CURVES FOR SELECTED RENEWABLE ELECTRIC POWER TECHNOLOGIES 100,000 $/kW PV -0.331 y = 5421.5x LR=21% 10,000 CSP -0.145 y = 4661.5x LR=10% 1,000 Wind y = 2330.3x-0.127 LR=8% 100 0.0 0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 Cumulative Installation (GW) Source: Byrne et al. [2009] A Review of Solar Energy Technology, Markets and Policy. Prepared for the Climate Change & Clean Energy Development Research Group, World Bank Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
  • State Renewable Portfolio Standards in the U.S. 17 RE b y 20 new 31 WA: 15% MN: 25% by 2020 10% 20 ME: by 2020 MT: 10% by NH: 23% by 2025 4% OR: 25% by 2015 MA: 15% by 2020 :2 by 2025 NY CT: 10% by 2010 NV: IL: PA: 18% by 2020 20% 25% NJ: 23% by 2021; 2% PV CO: by by Delaware: 20% by 2019; 2% PV 20% KS: 20% 0% 2015 2025 Wash DC: 11% by 2022 :2 0 by 2020 by 2020 CA 201 AZ: NC: 12.5% by 2021 by 15% NM: by 10% by 34 states and Wash DC 2025 2011 have passed legislation TX: 3% by 2009 5 states with pending legislation HI: 20% by 2020 29 states have completed Climate Change Action Plans Sources: CEEP Survey, 2009; http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/ DSIRE, 2009 content/ActionsStateActionPlans.html Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
  • Renewables – Approaching Parity LCOE with US Incentives LCOE w/o Incentives Levelized Cost per kWh (US cents) 40 Utility Scale Distributed Energy 35 (competes in (competes in Wholesale Market) Retail Market) 30 25 Mid-Atlantic Retail 20 Electricity Price 15 10 5 0 e lm C y al d T lin nc in C C rm Fi al al IG W ie G m in he st fic N l Th er ry oa rT Ef th C C V la eo gy V rP So rP G er la En la So So Data Source: Lazard 2008-09; CEEP (forthcoming) Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
  • MUSH: Municipalities (state/local government facilities); Universities; Schools; Hospitals
  • POLICY OPTIONS TO SERVE 25% OF 1800 US ELECTRICITY DEMAND FROM PV 1600 25% in 2055 25% in 2050 @ 21¢ / kWh 1400 @ 19.5¢ / kWh (levelized) 25% in 2045 (levelized) 1200 @ 18¢ / kWh (levelized) 1000 TWh 25% in 2035 ‘Green Premium’ of 25 cents/kWh in 2010 & 15 cents/kWh in 2015 800 @ 15¢ / kWh (levelized) Very Efficient PV Modules (42%) 600 More Efficient PV Modules (28%) 25% in 2025 CO2 price of $50/ton 400 @ 11¢ / kWh CO2 price of $25/ton (levelized) 200 BAU 0 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 Source: John Byrne & Lado Kurdgelashvili, (forthcoming) “The Impact of Policy on PV Industry Growth” In A. Luque & S. Hegedus (eds.) Handbook of Photovoltaic Science and Engineering 2nd ed. (NY: Wiley) Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
  • The Sustainable Energy Utility http://www.seu-de.org/ The SEU is a new utility serving the interests of sustainability. It partners with existing utilities while building and investing in a sustainable energy infrastructure. • The SEU was fist established by the State of Delaware on June 28, 2007 to: - Promote, provide and invest in energy efficiency services – Legislated Target: 30% Reduction in energy use by 2020 - Promote, provide and invest in increased deployment of Distributed Renewable Generation – Legislated Target: 10-20% of Electricity Sales from Distributed Renewables by 2020 • The SEU exists as a public/private partnership combining the best of both worlds - SEU is organized as a non-profit tax-exempt 501(c)(3) organization - Day to day operations are conducted by for-profit companies, non-profits & others specializing in the energy sector - Eliminates silos and provides solutions throughout the energy spectrum Old Model New Model Affordable Energy Distributed Renewables Less Electricity Natural Natural Gasoline/ Gasoline/ Electricity Electricity Transport Transport Water Water Education Education Gas Gas Diesel Diesel Green Less Buildings/ Green SEU Transportation Energy Neighborhoods Less Heating Fuel Water/ Materials Conservation 14 Education
  • • ARRA FUNDS • RGGI AUCTION PROCEEDS • TAX BENEFITS/ASSESSMENTS • GREEN BOND AUTHORITY • PUBLIC BENEFITS CHARGES • REC & SREC AGGREGATOR
  • SEU Solar Share Program By creating a Solar Share program, the SEU can efficiently maximize federal tax benefits, providing participants with lower cost renewable power on a platform that can include distributed & central location formats Equity Investors (recruited by SEU) 100% Ownership of Systems Incentives & SOLAR SHARE CO SEU SREC Floor Pricing (Special Purpose Entity) $$ Energy & SREC Payments Wires Solar MWH Utility $$ Utility Bill Participants 16
  • Sustainable Communities Program Tax / Equity $$ to Investors Revolving Fund Investment Capital Return Sustainable Incentives & SEU Communities Co Taxable (Special Purpose Entity) Bond Financing $$ Payment ESCO / Green RESCO / NegaWH MWH Wires Utility $$ Fees Participants (tax-exempt & taxable) 17
  • U D US Department of Energy CENTER OF EXCELLENCE SOLAR ELECTRIC POWER
  • The City of Dover, Delmarva Power and Delaware’s Sustainable Energy Utility are finalizing an agreement to construct a 10MW solar power plant on the city’s Garrison Oak Technology Park, to be called the Dover SUN Park.
  • Top ten states by Per capita installed PV capacity Cumulative Installed PV TOP TEN Capacity per person (WDC/person in 2008) 1. DELAWARE* California 14.6 22.2 2. Nevada California 14.6 14.2 3. Hawaii Nevada 14.2 10.6 4. New Jersey Hawaii 10.6 8.1 5. Colorado New Jersey 8.1 7.7 6. Arizona Colorado 7.7 4.3 7. Arizona Connecticut 4.3 2.5 8. Delaware Connecticut 2.5 2.2 9. Oregon 2.1 10. Vermont 1.8 US Average 2.7 Data Source: Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC) 2008. U.S. Solar Market Trends. *Will be 22 WDC/person after 10 MW of PV are installed by the City of Dover and 6 MW of PV by the University of Delaware
  • Green Jobs: The Sustainable Energy Advantage Permanent Jobs Created per Million US$ Invested COAL PLANTS 4 ENERGY EFFICIENCY & CONSERVATION 12-15 Smart/Green Buildings 14.7 Air Sealing/Insulation 12.0 RENEWABLE ENERGY 10-19 Solar Thermal 19.0 Solar Electric (PV) 15.7 Wind 11.9 Geothermal 10.5 Sources: Erhardt-Martinez & Laitner, The Size of the U.S. Energy Efficiency Market. ACEEE. 2008. American Solar Energy Society (ASES). Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Economic Drivers for the 21st Century. 2007.Singh & Fehrs, The Work that Goes into Renewable Energy. REPP. 2001.
  • PV Potential in Seoul 197 MW 67 MW 296 GWh (2%) 101 GWh (1%) Total Available Rooftop Real Estate: 130.8 million m2 134 MW 201 GWh (2%) 885 MW 1,330 GWh 2005 City (13%) Electricity Use: 40.5 TWh 900 MW 2005 City 1,354 GWh Peak Demand: 18.8 GW (14%) 4,494 MW 6,759 GWh Solar Potential (68%) Electricity Supply: 10.0 TWh (25%) Solar Potential Peak Shaving: 6.7 GW (36%) Residential Educational Assumptions: 40% of rooftop area can be used to collect solar Commercial Industrial energy; PV module efficiency = 14%; Inverter efficiency: 95% Sources: Columbia University, 2006; SEIA website. Public Other
  • Delaware’s SEU Cited as a National Model Testimony of John D. Podesta before Vice President Biden's Middle Class Task Force Philadelphia February 27, 2009 What can we do today In Delaware, a “Sustainable Energy Utility” can meet energy needs, not by building new power plants but by weatherizing homes [and installing solar panels]…creating a market…for the verifiable energy savings they produce. http://www.seu-de.org/ Center for Energy and Environmental Policy http://ceep.udel.edu/
  • Retreating Sea Ice 2003 1973
  • 1992 2002 2005 Source: ACIA, 2004 and CIRES, 2005