Paper No: 3a.2 AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville
Mary Stampone
New Hampshire State ...
1Heat Hazards
3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville
3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville
2Apparent Temperature
Stea...
3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville
3The NWS Heat Index
NWS Ta...
Dfb
Bsk
H
Aw
BwhCsa
Cf
b
Cfa
H
H
Bsk
Bsk
Dfa
US Climate
Zones
(Köppen’s
Classification)
3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Co...
3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville
5
NH
M
E
NY
VT
MA
CT
RI
39...
Fewest northern tier
(cool summers)
• Northern NH, VT,
& NY < 100
• Most of ME,
northern Green
Mountains and
Adirondacks <...
Fewest northern tier
(cool summers)
• Northern
NH, VT, & NY <
15
• Most of
ME, northern
Green Mountains
and Adirondacks
< ...
Fewest northern tier
(cool summers)
• Northern NH, VT, &
NY < 35
• Most of ME,
northern VT & NY <
25
Highest southern tier...
Fewest northern tier
(cool summers)
• Northern
NH, VT, & NY < 5
• Most of
ME, northern
NH, VT, & NY <
10
Highest southern
...
- Extreme heat index values (≥ 95 °F) occurred:
- most frequently over the densely populated, urban areas of southern
New ...
3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville
11Acknowledgements
Support...
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"Northeast United States heat index climatology: 1981-2010" by MD Stampone and DA Glenn

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Mary D. Stampone
Department of Geography
New Hampshire State Climate Office
University of New Hampshire

and

David A. Glenn 
NOAA/NWSFO Newport/Morehead City, North Carolina, Newport, NC

Presentation (3a.2) to the AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology.

Reference:
Stampone, M.D. and D.A. Glenn (2011), Northeast United States heat index climatology: 1981-2010. 19th Conference on Applied Climatology/36th Annual Meeting of the American Association of State Climatologists and Practical Solutions for a Warming World: AMS Conference on Climate Adaptation. July 18-20, 2011. Asheville, North Carolina.

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  • Extreme heat is one of the deadliest weather hazard, second only to excessive cold. Each year, hundreds, possibly thousands, of people worldwide suffer heat-related illnesses. In US, there was an estimated average of 237* heat-related fatalities per year from 1994-2003. * 10-year average of heat related fatalities from 1994-2003. U.S. Natural Hazard Statistics. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pub/heat.php
  • In 2010, a heat wave killed thousands in Russia, China, Japan and India. A record heat wave struck the Northeastern US in July of 2010, stressing power grids and sickening hundreds in Philadelpia, NYC, Providence and Boston.
  • From the Central Plains to the East Coast, hot summer temperatures often coincide with high atmospheric humidity. High humidity reduces the body’s perspiration rate and its ability to cool itself making it feel hotter during warm periods with high humidity. Steadman (1979) proposed a temperature-humidity index as a measure of how hot it “feels” – often referred to as apparent temperature - considering the combined effects of heat and humidity on the human body.
  • The NWS developed the Heat Index equation based on Steadman’s work that estimates the apparent temperature as the “Heat Index”.
  • In the summer, the boundary between cool and warm air masses is to the north of the region, allowing inflow of warm, humid air.New England and New York are located within the Humid Continental climate zone, split between warm summers to the south and cool summers north. Compared the more oppressive summer conditions that characterize the Mid-Atlantic region of the NE, New England and northern NY are relatively more comfortable during the summer months.However, temperature and humidity are highly variable over short distances due to the diverse topography and distribution of urban and rural areas.Southern areas are highly urbanized and include the NYC, Boston &amp; Providence Metropolitan areas as well as the densely populated Connecticut and Hudson River Valleys. Northern areas are much less densely populated with scattered small cities and urban centers. The north is also characterized by rugged terrain with several mountain ranges separated by large river valleys including the Hudson, Connecticut, &amp; Merrimack.
  • Hourly station data from NCDC US Integrated hourly surface observations with &lt;10 % missing temperature and dew point measurements resulting in 39 stations for which hourly HI values for 1981-2010 were calculated. Stations represent the variable landscape and climatic influences of the area. HI values are accurate within +/- 1.3F
  • Total number of days with a heat index value of 95F or above over the climate normal period 1981-2010 .Significant decrease in number of HI days &gt;95 of 5.2 days (+/- 1.6) at Floyd Bennett NY due to high totals in 1983 &amp; 1988. No trend from 1990-2010.Significant increase in number of HI day &gt;95 of 1.3 at Block Island RI due to occurrence after 1999 with no days prior.
  • Average number of hours per year from 1981-2010 with a heat index value of 95F or above.Significant increases in total number of hours per year atNYC Central Park (16.7) and Block Island due increase in occurrence after 1999Block Island RI had no hours prior 1999.
  • Total number of days with a heat index value of 100F or above over the climate normal period 1981-2010 .Five significant decrease at Houton ME, Montpelier VT, Floyd Bennett, Albany and Elmira NYHoulton and Montpelier due to a few days in the 80’s &amp; early 90’s but nothing after 1995Elmira &amp; Floyd Bennett Significantly above average count in 1983 (and lesser so in 1988 for all and Albany) and no trend since 1995Significant increase at Block Island RI due to occurrence of days in 2006 and 2010 none prior.
  • Average number of hours per year from 1981-2010 with a heat index value of 100F or above.Significant decreases at four stations and 1 increaseSignificant decreases in total number of hours per year atBarnes MA (15.6 +- 4.7), houlton ME (0.6 +- 0.2), Elmira (5.5 +- 1.7) and Montpelier (1.9 +- 0.6)Houlton and Montpelier had few hours overall with all occurring prior to 1995Barnes  high total hours in 1981-1983 (61 in 1983) and a smaller peak in early 90’s. All annual total hours less than each of first three yearsElmira pattern was similar to Barnes but with high total in 1983 and early 90’s then dropping off Significant increases in total number of hours per year atBlock Island (4.8 +- 1.5) due to occurrence in 2006 and 2010 none prior.
  • "Northeast United States heat index climatology: 1981-2010" by MD Stampone and DA Glenn

    1. 1. Paper No: 3a.2 AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville Mary Stampone New Hampshire State Climate Office Department of Geography, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH and David A. Glenn NOAA/NWSFO Newport/Morehead City, North Carolina, Newport, NC
    2. 2. 1Heat Hazards 3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville
    3. 3. 3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville 2Apparent Temperature Steadman (1979) developed an index to measure the combined effects of heat and humidity on the human body. Source: Steadman, RG (1979) The assessment of sultriness. Part1: A temperature-humidity index based on human physiology and clothing science. J. Appl. Meteor., 18, 861-873. Biometerological Assumptions: • Vapor pressure & wind speed • Dimensions, heat & moisture characteristics of skin & clothing • Activity & perspiration rate
    4. 4. 3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville 3The NWS Heat Index NWS Taunton, MA (BOX) Heat Warning (≥105 °F) Heat Advisory (101-104 °F)
    5. 5. Dfb Bsk H Aw BwhCsa Cf b Cfa H H Bsk Bsk Dfa US Climate Zones (Köppen’s Classification) 3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville 4Climate Dfa Dfb Humid Continental (Cool Summer) Humid Continental (Warm Summer)
    6. 6. 3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville 5 NH M E NY VT MA CT RI 39 stations with hourly temperature and dew point observations for 1981-2010http://cdo.ncdc.noaa.gov/pls/plclimprod/poemain.accessrouter Data Source: NCDC US Integrated Hourly Surface Observations Heat Index Climatology
    7. 7. Fewest northern tier (cool summers) • Northern NH, VT, & NY < 100 • Most of ME, northern Green Mountains and Adirondacks < 75 Highest southern tier (warm summers) • Urban areas > 140 (NYC, Providence & Boston) • Coast east of Long Island < 140 • Cape Cod < 100 3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville 6   Heat Index Climatology Total number of days with a heat index of ≥ 95 °F (1981- 2010)(/) Significant trends (95 % c.l.)
    8. 8. Fewest northern tier (cool summers) • Northern NH, VT, & NY < 15 • Most of ME, northern Green Mountains and Adirondacks < 10 Highest southern tier (warm summers) • Urban areas > 30 (NYC, Providenc e & Boston) • Coast east of Long Island < 20 • Cape Cod < 15 3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville 7   Heat Index Climatology Average hours per year with a heat index of ≥ 95 °F (1981-2010) (/) Significant trends (95 % c.l.)
    9. 9. Fewest northern tier (cool summers) • Northern NH, VT, & NY < 35 • Most of ME, northern VT & NY < 25 Highest southern tier (warm summers) • Urban areas > 65(NYC, Providence & Boston) • Coast east of Long Island < 50 • Cape Cod < 35 3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville 8   Heat Index Climatology Total number of days with a heat index of ≥ 100 °F (1981- 2010)     (/) Significant trends (95 % c.l.)
    10. 10. Fewest northern tier (cool summers) • Northern NH, VT, & NY < 5 • Most of ME, northern NH, VT, & NY < 10 Highest southern tier (warm summers) • Urban areas > 10 (NYC, Providenc e & Boston) • Coast east of Long Island < 5 • Cape Cod < 2 3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville 9Heat Index Climatology Average hours per year with a heat index of ≥ 100 °F (1981- 2010) Highest southern tier (warm summers)      (/) Significant trends (95 % c.l.)
    11. 11. - Extreme heat index values (≥ 95 °F) occurred: - most frequently over the densely populated, urban areas of southern New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and eastern Massachusetts. - much less frequently across Maine, northern New Hampshire and Vermont, and northern and western portions of New York. - infrequently over most of Maine and the higher elevations of the Green Mountains of Vermont and New York’s Adirondacks. - Despite the southern location and proximity to large urban centers, coastal areas of southern New England, particularly Cape Cod, had a low occurrence of extreme and dangerous heat and humidity. 3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville 10Summary Despite the northern location, uncomfortable and even dangerous atmospheric conditions due to the combined effects of high heat and humidity occur throughout New England and New York.
    12. 12. 3a.2: Stampone & Glenn AMS 19th Conference on Applied Climatology  18-20 July 2011  Asheville 11Acknowledgements Support for this work was provided by: New Hampshire State Climate Office University of New Hampshire and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Forecast Office Newport/Morehead City, NC & Gray, ME

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