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Transcript

  • 1.  
  • 2. Looking back to look forward
  • 3. 1976 All those things we lived without
    • Fax
    • PCs
    • PC Software
    • Walkman
    • Cable TV
    • Video Games
    • Cell Phones
    • Internet
    • LAN/Wans
    • USA Today
    • DVD
    • Microsoft
    • Direct TV
    • CD Players
    • VCRs
    Did you predict you would need any of them? Or that 20 years later you couldn't live without them many of them ?
  • 4. Most of the winners didn’t exist or were laggards
    • Compaq
    • Dell
    • Gateway
    • Intuit (Quicken)
    • TCI, MTV, ESPN
    • Video Games
    • Novell, Cisco
    • Yahoo, Amazon
    • Microsoft
    • Direct TV
    • Asian Manufacturers of CE
    Do you think the next 20 years are going to be any different ?
  • 5. We are entering a New Age!
  • 6. The Age of.... Defragmentation of Media All Media is becoming a stream of digital bits 00100101110110100110011100011100001111100011011000111000111000101000000110001100101110110
  • 7. Goodbye Analog
    • VHS Tapes
    • Television
    • Newsletters
    • Cable
    • Records
    • Cellular Phones
    • Newspapers
    • DVD
    • HDTV/Broadband
    • Email
    • Digital Cable
    • CDs
    • Digital Phones
    • WebPages
    Hello Digital
  • 8. In a Digital World Bits don’t care if they are Audio Video Animation or ?
  • 9. Maybe we need to rethink some things….
  • 10. What is Media ?
    • It used to be defined by its specturm
      • TV by channels, Radio by stations
    • Now its all becoming digital
      • All digital media is just a stream of bits
    • All channels are just bandwidth
      • There is lots available to anyone
      • Consumers will be attracted to the most compelling offerings
    • Content Providers will have to be distribution arbiters
      • Where is the audience ?
    #1
  • 11. What about Content ?
    • It used to be defined by its packaging capacity
      • CD - 62 Minutes / VHS - 1 Movie
      • DVD - 3.7gb
      • Not in a digital world
    • Broadband = consumption on demand
      • Pick what you want when you want it
      • Buffet or Ala Carte
    • Content is now defined by how long it takes to download or its quality
    #2
  • 12. What about Content Distribution ?
    • Content Distribution used to be defined by its windows
      • Network - Syndication
      • Theatrical - Hotel - Video - Cable
    • Not for long
      • New forms of distribution will appear
        • Live, OnDemand, Downloadable
      • Broadband Internet Users will demand what they want, when they want it.
      • Hold on to old notions of “windows” and die
    • I wouldn’t be building 7 years out or later syndication dollars into any TV show funding plans
    #3
  • 13. What is a Broadcaster ?
    • Every company is a broadcaster
      • Dell, GM, Intel, P&G…
    • Everyone is a broadcaster
      • For 5k a month you can reach a niche audience
    • There will be 100ks of video channels within 5 years
    • People will watch Internet video interchangeably with traditional TV
    #4
  • 14. Content Explosion by 2001
    • Creation tools are dropping leading to user creation of zillions of hours
    • Your next door neighbor will be your competition
    • Millions of hours of dusty content will find life
    • Broadcasters must position themselves as the leading aggregators or possibly be pushed aside !
    # 5
  • 15. Audience Fragmentation
    • Unlimited content means ultimate fragmentation - Personal Channels
    • People go to the net for Information, News, Entertainment and Passions
      • You can find anything on the net and people look for things they cant find elsewhere
      • Is grandma going to watch suzy’s soccer video for the 15th time or Touched by an Angel ?
    # 6
  • 16. Can the TV Networks win on the Net ?
    • Nope - Not the Big 6 or Cable Networks
        • cant drive as much traffic as everyone had hoped
    • Their Websites are being “Cablized
      • You want a big TV Bang - you go Network programs
      • You want a big internet bang you go Yahoo or AOL
    • Can’t serve 2 masters and succeed
      • Perfect Example - Why not stream CNBC ?
    • Networks won’t catch up
    # 7
  • 17. The Little Kid Effect
    • With in 5 years there will be a new media type,that we can’t imagine today invented by a child under the age of 15
    • He or She didn’t want to do homework, so they invented the new killer app
    • It will change the way we live our lives more than we have seen in the last 20 years
    # 8

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