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Uclasymp
 

Uclasymp

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    Uclasymp Uclasymp Presentation Transcript

    •  
    • Looking back to look forward
    • 1976 All those things we lived without
      • Fax
      • PCs
      • PC Software
      • Walkman
      • Cable TV
      • Video Games
      • Cell Phones
      • Internet
      • LAN/Wans
      • USA Today
      • DVD
      • Microsoft
      • Direct TV
      • CD Players
      • VCRs
      Did you predict you would need any of them? Or that 20 years later you couldn't live without them many of them ?
    • Most of the winners didn’t exist or were laggards
      • Compaq
      • Dell
      • Gateway
      • Intuit (Quicken)
      • TCI, MTV, ESPN
      • Video Games
      • Novell, Cisco
      • Yahoo, Amazon
      • Microsoft
      • Direct TV
      • Asian Manufacturers of CE
      Do you think the next 20 years are going to be any different ?
    • We are entering a New Age!
    • The Age of.... Defragmentation of Media All Media is becoming a stream of digital bits 00100101110110100110011100011100001111100011011000111000111000101000000110001100101110110
    • Goodbye Analog
      • VHS Tapes
      • Television
      • Newsletters
      • Cable
      • Records
      • Cellular Phones
      • Newspapers
      • DVD
      • HDTV/Broadband
      • Email
      • Digital Cable
      • CDs
      • Digital Phones
      • WebPages
      Hello Digital
    • In a Digital World Bits don’t care if they are Audio Video Animation or ?
    • Maybe we need to rethink some things….
    • What is Media ?
      • It used to be defined by its specturm
        • TV by channels, Radio by stations
      • Now its all becoming digital
        • All digital media is just a stream of bits
      • All channels are just bandwidth
        • There is lots available to anyone
        • Consumers will be attracted to the most compelling offerings
      • Content Providers will have to be distribution arbiters
        • Where is the audience ?
      #1
    • What about Content ?
      • It used to be defined by its packaging capacity
        • CD - 62 Minutes / VHS - 1 Movie
        • DVD - 3.7gb
        • Not in a digital world
      • Broadband = consumption on demand
        • Pick what you want when you want it
        • Buffet or Ala Carte
      • Content is now defined by how long it takes to download or its quality
      #2
    • What about Content Distribution ?
      • Content Distribution used to be defined by its windows
        • Network - Syndication
        • Theatrical - Hotel - Video - Cable
      • Not for long
        • New forms of distribution will appear
          • Live, OnDemand, Downloadable
        • Broadband Internet Users will demand what they want, when they want it.
        • Hold on to old notions of “windows” and die
      • I wouldn’t be building 7 years out or later syndication dollars into any TV show funding plans
      #3
    • What is a Broadcaster ?
      • Every company is a broadcaster
        • Dell, GM, Intel, P&G…
      • Everyone is a broadcaster
        • For 5k a month you can reach a niche audience
      • There will be 100ks of video channels within 5 years
      • People will watch Internet video interchangeably with traditional TV
      #4
    • Content Explosion by 2001
      • Creation tools are dropping leading to user creation of zillions of hours
      • Your next door neighbor will be your competition
      • Millions of hours of dusty content will find life
      • Broadcasters must position themselves as the leading aggregators or possibly be pushed aside !
      # 5
    • Audience Fragmentation
      • Unlimited content means ultimate fragmentation - Personal Channels
      • People go to the net for Information, News, Entertainment and Passions
        • You can find anything on the net and people look for things they cant find elsewhere
        • Is grandma going to watch suzy’s soccer video for the 15th time or Touched by an Angel ?
      # 6
    • Can the TV Networks win on the Net ?
      • Nope - Not the Big 6 or Cable Networks
          • cant drive as much traffic as everyone had hoped
      • Their Websites are being “Cablized
        • You want a big TV Bang - you go Network programs
        • You want a big internet bang you go Yahoo or AOL
      • Can’t serve 2 masters and succeed
        • Perfect Example - Why not stream CNBC ?
      • Networks won’t catch up
      # 7
    • The Little Kid Effect
      • With in 5 years there will be a new media type,that we can’t imagine today invented by a child under the age of 15
      • He or She didn’t want to do homework, so they invented the new killer app
      • It will change the way we live our lives more than we have seen in the last 20 years
      # 8