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Socialcast Return Over Influence Web2.0 Coutinho

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Presentation at the WAA meeting regarding metrics for Socialcast, a new communication model, with some comments about Web 2.0 adoption in Brazil

Presentation at the WAA meeting regarding metrics for Socialcast, a new communication model, with some comments about Web 2.0 adoption in Brazil

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  • 1. Return Over Influence Socialcast Metrics – The Brazilian case Web Analytics Association São Paulo, Brazil, October 2009 marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu Twitter: @mcoutinho
  • 2. Overview • Social Networks on the Internet • Digital Social Networks in Brazil • The case for advertising – Brands and Social Capital • Old AND New Metrics • Debate marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 3. marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 4. Social Networks on the Internet Sociable Media, MIT Media Lab
  • 5. Social Networks are older than the Internet… marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 6. But the web amplify their reach marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 7. marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 8. South Korea Russia 9.7m Denmark 2.4m 0.3m UK Poland 4.5m Netherlands 1.6m 1.1m Germany USA CANADA 1.6m France 5.2m Czech Romania 0.6m 0.5m China Japan Hungary Switzerland 14m 26.4m 4m 0.5m Austria 0.1m 0.4m Greece 0.3mTurkey 43m Italy 2m Pakistan Spain 3.4m 0.97m Taiwan 4.5m 4.2m MEXICO 4.1m Philippines % Write their own India Hong Kong 2.4m blog 1m 8.7m 60%+ BRAZIL 40% -60% Australia 7.6m 1m 30%-40% <30% Source: Universal McCann Social Media Tracker March 2008
  • 9. South Korea Russia 9.4m 6.1m Netherlands 3.7m Poland UK Denmark 0.6m 2.7m 11m CANADA Germany Romania Czech 1.4m 0.8m China Japan 8.2m 12.4m USA 4.2m France 4.2m Switzerland Hungary 1m Turkey 39m 43m 0.9m Austria 0.6m 3.3m Greece Italy Pakistan Spain 0.5m 1.8m 3.9m Taiwan 4.7m 3.9m India MEXICO 5.1m 11.7m Hong Kong 1m Philippines 3m % joined a BRAZIL social network 11.4m 70%+ Australia 2.6m 60% -69% 50%-59% <49% Source: Universal McCann Social Media Tracker March 2008
  • 10. Digital Social Networks in Brazil Revista Época, 10/3/2008 marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 11. Brazil is the leading country in time spent on the internet marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 12. Member Communities usage marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 13. Most Popular Categories - BR Source: IBOPE
  • 14. marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 15. Time Spent on “social usage” on the internet in Brazil is almost 50% higher than in US 11,8 8,0 3,6 3,5 3,7 3,5 1,7 Source: State of the Media Survey 2009 / Deloitte
  • 16. Q - What does it mean for advertising? A – First, that a costumer can generate in a week more GRPs than you can buy in a year… marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 17. …and second, this can cost you a lot of money Source: Wired
  • 18. … even if you are a bar in São Paulo marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 19. Source: Trust Barometer, Edelman, 2008
  • 20. Digital social networks will change the way that we relate to the news, brands and products NP Radio Source: BBC
  • 21. It is not the end of “Broadcast”, but it is the birth of “Socialcast”
  • 22. marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 23. The death of the “opinion leader” or the birth of the “opinion climate”? Source: Colective Dynamics Group, Columbia University
  • 24. The real value generated by brands and the consumer > facts Consumers recognize (and search for) the trophies related to their values and brands (media, websites, social networks, etc) And happily “socialcast” these values to their own networks marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 25. Source: Forrester Research, 2009.
  • 26. A new type of market for Brands: Social Capital and Social Currency The trade for Facts Trust Benefits Emotional Satisfaction Communication Social 1. 2. Altruistic Competitive Social Capital Currency Operational Financial Expertise (reduction of Transaction costs) Adapted from Bourdieu, 1997; Goshal, 1998; Scheinkman, 2000
  • 27. Broadcast Metrics can be applied to a Socialcast world? marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 28. Yes, but with care Quantitative Metrics - IAB • Exposition (Broadcast) • Visitors / Unique Visitors • Visits • Time Spent • Interactions (Socialcast) • Uploads / Downloads • Messages • Comments / Answers / Votes • Friends • Incoming Links • Members marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 29. Qualitative Socialcast Metrics still in beta…(ESPM) • Relevancy – Number of relevant posts / number of total posts • Dialogue extension and depth – First comment / Last comment (recency) • Favorability – (number of total post – negative posts) / number of total posts marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 30. What is an opinion to a machine? It is a "quintuple", an object made up of 5 different things: Oj = The thing in question (i.e product) f jk = a feature of Oj SO ijkl = the sentiment value of the opinion of the opinion holder hi on feature fjk of object oj at time tl These 5 elements have to be identified by the machine Source: Opinion Mining and Sentiment Analysis, Pang & Lee, 2008
  • 31. It is not old X new metrics, but old AND new
  • 32. Advertising is moving from a world built around Cathedrals (Broadcast media consumption, tools and metrics)… marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 33. … to a world ruled by the logic of the bazaar (even if the same owner has a lot of outlets) marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 34. Socialcast “channels”
  • 35. and we are just beginning
  • 36. Return Over Influence Socialcast Metrics – The Brazilian case Web Analytics Association São Paulo, Brazil, October 2009 marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu Twitter: @mcoutinho

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