Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public

452 views
420 views

Published on

Economist Intelligence Unit Energy Deep Drill Analysis

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
452
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
5
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Energy Webinar Slides Mar 9 Public

  1. 1. Driving Energy Transformation A look at energy trends to 2020 Carla Rapoport Director, Industry Briefing Tony McAuley Managing Editor, Energy March 9, 2010
  2. 2. Today’s Presenters Tony McAuley Carla Rapoport Managing Editor, Energy Director, Industry Briefing Location: London, UK Location: London, UK
  3. 3. Research and advisory arm of The Economist Group for business executives 650 analysts and industry specialists worldwide covering • Analysis and forecasting for over 200 countries and territories • Risk assessment • Market sizing • Industry data and trends automotive, consumer goods, energy, financial services, healthcare, technology
  4. 4. Familiar themes, unprecedented uncertainty Policy uncertainty Resource nationalism Resource competition Curbing & Pricing CO2 Energy security Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
  5. 5. EIU Energy Briefing – data tool Energy Deep-drill Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
  6. 6. EIU Energy Briefing – Deep drill Objectives A dynamic tool to deal with uncertainty, complexity Adaptable to new information Energy Briefing Deep-drill approach EIU’s country-based approach IEA’s historic data for consistency EIU Economic and Demographic Forecasts National energy plans as reference point EIU Country analysts change forecasts as new information emerges Go to www.eiu.com/energydd Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
  7. 7. Country energy profiles in numbers China’s energy mix Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
  8. 8. Big picture – China’s key target Not quite there (China, US Energy Intensity (Energy/GDP) C hina USA China’s 2020 target is 40- 800 45% of 2005; At 34%, it 700 falls short 600 500 400 US energy intensity 300 declines by 23% 200 100 0 2005 08 11 14 17 20 So urce: Eco no mist Intelligence Unit. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
  9. 9. US – China: passing on the escalator China, already ahead of US as Overall energy consumption stays largest outright CO2 emissions, fairly flat but the US struggles to doubles CO2 by 2020 as it surges past meet goal of 17% CO2 cut by 2020 US in outright energy consumption Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
  10. 10. CHINA: Rising gas keeps fossil fuel dominant •Total energy consumption more than doubles to 3.6bn toe •Fossil fuels’ combined share rises to 87% from 85% •The rise is due to a nine- fold increase in gas consumption •Coal remains dominant but its overall share drops from 64% to 61% •Oil product demand rises 56% as the transportation sector expands Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
  11. 11. Nuclear, Wind share may grow more •Electricity capacity to double by 2020 •Conservatively, Nuclear and Wind share will double – room to improve those targets •Though Hydro grows 65%, its share falls •Combustible fuels takes a growing share Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
  12. 12. Next leap forward Zhang Guobao, boss of China’s National Energy Administration What might change? •New “super ministry” created – National Energy Commission, headed by Prime Minister •NEA 10-year plan to focus on 15% of total energy consumption from renewables •Nuclear target may be increased – already raised twice but target share may rise to 5% •More aggressive target for wind and other key renewables Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
  13. 13. A “BRICET” Example - Turkey Without nuclear, the rise in electricity demand is to be met mainly from Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
  14. 14. Turkey – making small “green” gains Relatively stable coal, oil and gas shares – renewables share grows from 8.4% to 10.25% in 2020. Wild cards are nuclear and privatisaion Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
  15. 15. Nuclear could have big impact Taner Yildiz, Turkey’s energy minister What could change? •Nuclear could add as much as 9Gw, or 15% of electricity capacity, if Russian and Korean plans are completed •Joint government ownership is likely, but the idea of public-private partnerships for nuclear has been floated •Government is on track to have electricity fully privatised by 2013 •Turkey’s gas needs are projected to grow 47.5% by 2020 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
  16. 16. UK, gassing up Natural gas takes up the slack as coal’s share declines Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
  17. 17. Ambitious targets Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
  18. 18. Coal economics Drax Power Station – Selby, United Kingdom •A belwether plant, accounts for about 5% of UK capacity •Most recently completed coal-fired Plant in UK •Emits about 4% of UK CO2 emissions •Has biomass co-firing capability of 500Mw •Uneconomic to run biomass at CO2, subsidy prices Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
  19. 19. Questions and Answers
  20. 20. More Information? Data and analysis from today’s presentation were taken from the Economist Intelligence Unit’s energy briefing services. For more information on these services, please visit www.eiu.com/energydd For other services from the EIU including country analysis and forecasting, risk assessment, and economic data, please visit www.eiu.com Have a question for our editors or would like more information on the EIU? Please contact: Holly Donahue Market Development Manager hollydonahue@economist.com 1 (212) 541 - 0596
  21. 21. Thank you

×