EXPLAINING THE REGION’S RECENT ELECTIONS Latin America’s Shift to the Left

EXPLAINING THE REGION’S RECENT ELECTIONS

José Machado ( Cuba VP) Manuel Zelaya ( Honduras ) Hugo Chávez ( Venezuela ) Evo Morales ( Bolivia ) Daniel Ortega ( Nicaragua )

1998 •1999 • 2000 • 2001 • 2002 • 2003 • 2004 • 2005 • 2006 • 2007 • 2008 • 2009

Venezuela: Hugo Chávez December 1998

December 1998

Brazil: Luiz Inácio (“Lula”) da Silva October 2002 A factory worker with a 4 th grade education, Lula rose through union ranks to lead the Workers’ Party (PT). He ran unsuccessfully in 1998, won a decisive victory (63%) in 2002, and was reelected in 2006. Lula has sought to continue Brazil’s economic growth while reducing the country’s high inequality. Under Lula, Brazil has become a major regional (and potential world) power.

October 2002

A factory worker with a 4 th grade education, Lula rose through union ranks to lead the Workers’ Party (PT).

He ran unsuccessfully in 1998, won a decisive victory (63%) in 2002, and was reelected in 2006. Lula has sought to continue Brazil’s economic growth while reducing the country’s high inequality.

Under Lula, Brazil has become a major regional (and potential world) power.

Bolivia: Evo Morales December 2005 Leader of Bolivia’s cocaleros (coca farmers) and outspoken critic of “neocolonialism.” Won a decisive majority (54%) to become the country’s first indigenous president. A close ally of Hugo Chávez, Morales has nationalized industries (oil, gas, mining) and pushed through a new constitution. Up for reelection December 2009.

December 2005

Leader of Bolivia’s cocaleros (coca farmers) and outspoken critic of “neocolonialism.”

Won a decisive majority (54%) to become the country’s first indigenous president.

A close ally of Hugo Chávez, Morales has nationalized industries (oil, gas, mining) and pushed through a new constitution.

Up for reelection December 2009.

Chile: Michelle Bachelet January 2006 Served as minister of Health (2000-2002) and Defense (2002-2006) during the Ricardo Lagos government (2000-2006). Won a second-round election (53%) on a center-left platform that promised to continue liberal economic policies, but with greater emphasis on reducing inequality.

January 2006

Served as minister of Health (2000-2002) and Defense (2002-2006) during the Ricardo Lagos government (2000-2006).

Won a second-round election (53%) on a center-left platform that promised to continue liberal economic policies, but with greater emphasis on reducing inequality.

Nicaragua: Daniel Ortega November 2006 Leader of the Sandinista government (1985-1990) and hero of the 1979 Revolution. Publicly “converted” and reconciled with the Catholic Church, as part of a move to the center. Narrowly (38-28-27) beat two candidates of the right. Ortega is an ally of Hugo Chávez, who provides Nicaragua with significant economic aid.

November 2006

Leader of the Sandinista government (1985-1990) and hero of the 1979 Revolution.

Publicly “converted” and reconciled with the Catholic Church, as part of a move to the center. Narrowly (38-28-27) beat two candidates of the right.

Ortega is an ally of Hugo Chávez, who provides Nicaragua with significant economic aid.

Argentina: Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner October 2007 Succeeded her husband (Néstor Kirchner), who remained in control of the Peronist party. She won a decisive victory (45-22-12) on a platform critical of the IMF and promising to return Argentina to better times. Her campaign frequently alluded to the 2001 economic crisis. The Kirchners are strong allies of Hugo Chávez, and frequently speak out against the US.

October 2007

Succeeded her husband (Néstor Kirchner), who remained in control of the Peronist party.

She won a decisive victory (45-22-12) on a platform critical of the IMF and promising to return Argentina to better times. Her campaign frequently alluded to the 2001 economic crisis.

The Kirchners are strong allies of Hugo Chávez, and frequently speak out against the US.

Populists Social Democrats Address economic inequality through radical economic redistribution If existing institutional frameworks block social change, abolish or sidestep institutional guarantees Constant, polarizing campaigns to mobilize political support for policies or to intimidate opponents (frequent use of “bully pulpit”) Address economic inequality by expanding social safety nets, but without upsetting market economy Work through existing institutional frameworks, even if this means changes are slow Social, economic issues treated as technical matters and handled through bureaucratic institutions (distinction between “politics” and “governance”) TWO KINDS OF LEFTS

Populists

Social Democrats

Address economic inequality through radical economic redistribution

If existing institutional frameworks block social change, abolish or sidestep institutional guarantees

Constant, polarizing campaigns to mobilize political support for policies or to intimidate opponents (frequent use of “bully pulpit”)

Address economic inequality by expanding social safety nets, but without upsetting market economy

Work through existing institutional frameworks, even if this means changes are slow

Social, economic issues treated as technical matters and handled through bureaucratic institutions (distinction between “politics” and “governance”)

Social Democracy A political ideology that incorporates elements of both socialism and capitalism. This is usually done through comprehensive welfare programs and/or through significant state regulation designed to “check” the tendency of capitalism to produce social inequalities. At right, logos of various social democratic parties in Europe.

A political ideology that incorporates elements of both socialism and capitalism. This is usually done through comprehensive welfare programs and/or through significant state regulation designed to “check” the tendency of capitalism to produce social inequalities.

At right, logos of various social democratic parties in Europe.