A SHORT VIDEO TO GET US STARTED
WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME YOU HAD TO
MAKE A DECISION?
We start making decisions from the moment we
wake up. These decisions vary in complexity.
Some are relatively simple, some are automatic,
while others demand a higher degree of
reflection and thinking.
Some of those decisions have serious
implications and consequences Good/bad/ugly
AS MUCH AS YOU PLAN FOR A DESIRED
The outcome will depend on the decisions you make and every
subsequent decision that follows.
WE ARE CONSTANTLY EVALUATED ON OUR
JUDGEMENT & DECISION MAKING ABILITIES
BY OUR EMPLOYER & COLLEAGUES
WIFE OR HUSBAND
Is a mental error caused by our simplified information
Psychological tendencies that cause the human brain to draw incorrect conclusions.
Mental shortcuts, rules of thumb, or gut-feeling that assist us to make quick
decisions without formal analysis.
Attacked by a bear/animal
About to get hit by a car
We are not even aware we are committing them
WHY ARE THEY CRUCIAL & CAN BE
THE FUNCTION YOU OCCUPY OR THE ROLE
YOU PLAY DETERMINES THE IMPACT OF YOUR
Just like our
You need every
organ to function
From Janitor to CEO
We cannot disregard
EVERY FUNCTION/ROLE MATTERS
EVERY ONE OF US IS PART OF AN ORGANIZATION IN
ONE WAY OR ANOTHER
MOUNT EVEREST 1996 DISASTER
MENTAL MODELS & THE CONFIRMATION BIAS
VISUAL SYSTEM & ASSOCIATIVE MEMORY
NEARBY COMPARISON AND CHOICE
First group could have either $10 or a
Second group could
have $10, a nice pen,
or an uglier pen
A bat and a ball cost $1.10. The bat is $1 more than the ball. How much is the ball?
READ THE COLOR
John is a quiet man, with a retiring personality. Is he more likely to be:
HERE IS ONE THAT SHOULD HELP YOU IN
Is the height of the tallest redwood more or less than 1200 feet?
What is your best guess about the height of the tallest redwood?
A study of a Campbell’s soup sales promotion was conducted when the product was
on sale for about 10% less than regular price. On some days a sign on the shelf said
“Limit of 12 per person” and on other days the sign said, “No limit per
person.” Shoppers purchased an average of 7 cans of soup when the limit was in
effect, double the amount that they purchased with no limit.
WHAT IS THIS PARAGRAPH TALKING ABOUT?
THINKING FAST AND SLOW
BECOME A CRITICAL THINKER
It is a skill you can
practice in order
Once you master it,
watch how you
Don’t make it
thinking less of
RECOGNIZE QUALITY DECISIONS
A Decision framed within a context
Creative and well-thought of alternatives
Relevant & reliable information which to base the
decision upon, while incorporating inherent
Logical Reasoning & analysis that help draw
DECISION QUALITY QUESTIONS
Is there any reason to suspect motivated errors, or errors driven by the self-interest of the
Have the people making the recommendation fallen in love with it?
Were there dissenting opinions within the recommending team?
Could the diagnosis of the situation be overly influenced by salient analogies?
Have credible alternatives been considered?
If you had to make this decision again in a year, what information would you want, and can you get
more of it now?
Do you know where the numbers came from?
Can you see a halo effect?
Are the people making the recommendation overly attached to past decisions?
Is the base case overly optimistic?
Is the worst case bad enough?
Is the recommending team overly cautious?
We are great at recognizing our physical limitations and we tend to do something about it. Are
willing to do the same with our Cognitive limitations?
CREDIT GOES TO DR DAN ARIELY & STANDFORD UNIVERSITY – STRATEGIC DECISIONS GROUP