Climate to fish to fishers

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This presentation show the framework for various end-to-end models being applied in various marine pelagic ecosystems.

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Climate to fish to fishers

  1. 1. IntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall Pelagic From Climate to Fish to Fishers: anFishSPF characteristics integrated approach to small pelagicHypothesisManagement fisheriesE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood web Miguel BernalFleetSummary ˜ Instituto Espanol de Oceanograf´a (IEO) ıSome results ` Institut de Ciencies del Mar (CSIC)FinalremarksAdditionalInfo ` Sete, 28 April 2011 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  2. 2. Contributors & related projectsIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall Pelagic Enrique CurchitserFish CAMEO: Mechanisms for low-freq. Rutgers UniversitySPF characteristics variability of forage fish: A comparativeHypothesis Kenny A. RoseManagement Louisiana State University analysis of N. Pacific sardine systemsE2E models http://alnilam.marine.rutgers.edu/wikiCAMEOwhat is end2end Jerome Fletcher University of California –Hydrodynamicmodels Santa Cruz REPROdUCE:understandingfood web REproductive PROcesses UsingFleet Kate HedstromSummary Arctic Region Coupled biophysical models of theSome results Supercomputing Center pelagic EcosystemFinal Manuel Ruiz-Villarreal http://www.pelagic-ecosystems.net/REPROdUCEremarks ˜ Instituto Espanol deAdditional Oceanograf´aıInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  3. 3. Outline of the talkIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall Pelagic 1 Introduction: what links climate and fish?FishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagement 2 The special case of Small Pelagic FishE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodels 3 End-to-end modelsfood webFleetSummarySome results 4 Some resultsFinalremarksAdditional 5 Final remarksInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  4. 4. Outline of the talkIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFish 1 Introduction: what links climate and fish?SPF characteristicsHypothesis What links climate to fish?Management Ocean dynamics and climateE2E modelswhat is end2end Finding common groundHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummary 2 The special case of Small Pelagic FishSome resultsFinal 3 End-to-end modelsremarksAdditionalInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  5. 5. What links climate to fish?IntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commonground Fisheries science basicsSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristics RecruitmentHypothesisManagement = new fishE2E models Recruitswhat is end2endHydrodynamic + mortalitymodelsfood web → stockFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  6. 6. What links climate to fish?IntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commonground What control recruitment?Small PelagicFishSPF characteristics Internal control onHypothesisManagement recruitmentE2E models Biomass andwhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodels structure of the stockfood webFleet controls nextSummary generation Ricker, 1954Some results Very noisy but still aFinalremarks basis for stockAdditionalInfo management Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  7. 7. What links climate to fish?IntroductionClimate & FishClimate & Ocean What control recruitment?Finding commonground External control on stockSmall PelagicFish and recruitmentSPF characteristicsHypothesis Predation (top-downManagementE2E models control)what is end2endHydrodynamic Competitionmodelsfood web (sideways control)FleetSummary Food availabilitySome results (bottom-up control)Finalremarks Ocean dynamicsAdditionalInfo Adapted from Cury et al., 2001 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  8. 8. What links climate to fish?IntroductionClimate & FishClimate & Ocean What control recruitment?Finding commonground External control on stockSmall PelagicFish and recruitmentSPF characteristicsHypothesis Predation (top-downManagementE2E models control)what is end2endHydrodynamic Competitionmodelsfood web (sideways control)FleetSummary Food availabilitySome results (bottom-up control)Finalremarks Ocean dynamicsAdditionalInfo Adapted from Cury et al., 2001 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  9. 9. What links climate to fish?IntroductionClimate & FishClimate & Ocean What control recruitment?Finding commonground External control on stockSmall PelagicFish and recruitmentSPF characteristicsHypothesis Predation (top-downManagementE2E models control)what is end2endHydrodynamic Competitionmodelsfood web (sideways control)FleetSummary Food availabilitySome results (bottom-up control)Finalremarks Ocean dynamicsAdditionalInfo Adapted from Cury et al., 2001 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  10. 10. What links climate to fish?IntroductionClimate & FishClimate & Ocean What control recruitment?Finding commonground External control on stockSmall PelagicFish and recruitmentSPF characteristicsHypothesis Predation (top-downManagementE2E models control)what is end2endHydrodynamic Competitionmodelsfood web (sideways control)FleetSummary Food availabilitySome results (bottom-up control)Finalremarks Ocean dynamicsAdditionalInfo Adapted from Cury et al., 2001 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  11. 11. Ocean dynamicsIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding common Climate and Ocean dynamicsgroundSmall Pelagic CommunityFishSPF characteristics Climate SystemHypothesisManagement Models try toE2E models incorporate mainwhat is end2endHydrodynamic Earth processesmodelsfood web affecting climateFleetSummary Ocean -Some results atmosphereFinalremarks coupling is crucialAdditionalInfo NCAR CCSM forcing Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  12. 12. Finding common ground: downscaling and upscalingIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditional Dickey,  1991,  2003  Info Provided by E. Curchitser Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  13. 13. Outline of the talkIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFish 1 Introduction: what links climate and fish?SPF characteristicsHypothesisManagement 2 The special case of Small Pelagic FishE2E modelswhat is end2end SPF characteristicsHydrodynamicmodelsfood web HypothesisFleetSummary Management considerationsSome resultsFinal 3 End-to-end modelsremarksAdditionalInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  14. 14. The special case of Small Pelagic FishIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & Ocean ChallengesFinding commonground Situated in productiveSmall PelagicFish ecosystemsSPF characteristicsHypothesis Large stocks butManagement highly variableE2E modelswhat is end2end biomassHydrodynamicmodelsfood web Exploited by largeFleetSummary fleets, fisheries Global SST imageSome results collapses examplesFinalremarks Cycles andAdditional teleconectionsInfo (bottom up + regimes) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  15. 15. The special case of Small Pelagic FishIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & Ocean ChallengesFinding commonground Situated in productiveSmall PelagicFish ecosystemsSPF characteristicsHypothesis Large stocks butManagement highly variableE2E modelswhat is end2end biomassHydrodynamicmodelsfood web Exploited by largeFleetSummary fleets, fisheriesSome results collapses examplesFinalremarks Cycles and Baumgartner et al., 1992Additional teleconectionsInfo (bottom up + regimes) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  16. 16. The special case of Small Pelagic FishIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & Ocean ChallengesFinding commonground Situated in productiveSmall PelagicFish ecosystemsSPF characteristicsHypothesis Large stocks butManagement highly variableE2E modelswhat is end2end biomassHydrodynamicmodelsfood web Exploited by largeFleetSummary fleets, fisheriesSome results collapses examplesFinalremarks Cycles and Baumgartner et al., 1992Additional teleconectionsInfo (bottom up + regimes) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  17. 17. The special case of Small Pelagic FishIntroductionClimate & Fish ChallengesClimate & OceanFinding commonground Situated in productiveSmall Pelagic ecosystemsFishSPF characteristicsHypothesis Large stocks butManagement highly variableE2E modelswhat is end2end biomassHydrodynamicmodelsfood web Exploited by largeFleetSummary fleets, fisheriesSome results collapses examplesFinal Cycles andremarksAdditional teleconectionsInfo (bottom up + regimes) Schwartzlose et al., 1999 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  18. 18. The special case of Small Pelagic FishIntroductionClimate & Fish ChallengesClimate & OceanFinding commonground Situated in productiveSmall Pelagic ecosystemsFishSPF characteristicsHypothesis Large stocks butManagement highly variableE2E modelswhat is end2end biomassHydrodynamicmodelsfood web Exploited by largeFleetSummary fleets, fisheriesSome results collapses examplesFinal Climate and humanremarksAdditional interactions affectInfo dynamics Schwartzlose et al., 1999 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  19. 19. Hypothesis on mechanism that explain small pelagic fish fluctuationsIntroduction Hypothesis ReferencesClimate & FishClimate & Ocean Combined advection and trophody- Alheit and Niquen (2004);Finding commonground namic hypothesis Alheit and Bakun (2009) Bakun and Cury (1999);Small PelagicFish Loop-hole, school trap and Active Bakun and Broad (2003);SPF characteristics opportunist hypothesis Bakun (2009)HypothesisManagement Intra-guild predation hypothesis Irigoien and de Roos (2009)E2E models Fishing hypothesis Smith et al. (2009)what is end2end MacCall (2009)Hydrodynamicmodels Boundary current flow hypothesisfood webFleet Trophic partitioning and habitat hy- Rykazcewski and CheckleySummary pothesis (2008)Some results Takasuka et al. (2007);Final Temperature-based hypothesis Takasuka et al. (2008a);remarks Takasuka et al. (2008b)Additional Kuroshio Extension Oscillation hy- Takahashi et al. (2009)Info pothesis Van der Lingen et al. (2006); Trophic dissimilarity hypothesis van der lingen et al. (2009) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  20. 20. Hypothesis on mechanism that explain small pelagic fish fluctuationsIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo van der Lingen et al., 2009 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  21. 21. Hypothesis on mechanism that explain small pelagic fish fluctuationsIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo Chavez et al., 2003 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  22. 22. Small pelagic fish management considerationsIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding common Current situationgroundSmall Pelagic Short term management based on current assessmentFishSPF characteristics + projectionsHypothesisManagement Medium or Long term management not reliable due toE2E models poor recruitment forecastwhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodels Survey recruitment index (juveniles) provides some hintfood webFleet on next yearSummarySome resultsFinal Alternativeremarks Ecosystem approach to fisheriesAdditionalInfo Requires to integrate bottom-up, sideways and top-down effects Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  23. 23. Outline of the talkIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall Pelagic 2 The special case of Small Pelagic FishFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagement 3 End-to-end modelsE2E models What is an End-to-End model?what is end2endHydrodynamic Hydrodynamic modelsmodelsfood web Energy transfer through the trophic webFleetSummary FleetSome results SummaryFinalremarksAdditional 4 Some resultsInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  24. 24. What is an end-to-end model?IntroductionClimate & Fish Integrated model of the ecosystem:Climate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo From CAMEO Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  25. 25. What is an end-to-end model?IntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commonground Environment representedSmall PelagicFish by climate - hydrodynamicSPF characteristicsHypothesis ocean modelsManagementE2E models Lower, intermediate andwhat is end2endHydrodynamic upper trophic levelsmodelsfood web represented by modulesFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  26. 26. Hydrodynamic modelsIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding common ROMS + climate forcinggroundSmall Pelagic Dynamical two-wayFishSPF characteristics downscalingHypothesisManagement (climate-ocean-regionalE2E models model)what is end2endHydrodynamicmodels Biogeochemical forcingfood webFleet High resolution: 3-10Summary km, 30 vertical layersSome resultsFinal Time frame up to 50 yrremarksAdditional Requires parallellInfo computing Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  27. 27. Energy transfer from nutrients to fish to fishersIntroduction From complex... ... to synthetic modelsClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummarySome results Pauly, 2001FinalremarksAdditionalInfo Lavigne, 1996 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  28. 28. Nutrients and lower trophic levelsIntroductionClimate & Fish Example: NEMUROClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo Kishi et al., 2007 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  29. 29. Intermediate trophic levels: Small pelagic fishIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commonground What needs to be modelled?Small Pelagic ReproductionFishSPF characteristicsHypothesis GrowthManagementE2E models Movementwhat is end2endHydrodynamic Mortalitymodelsfood webFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo Individual Based Model (one individual represent a “school”) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  30. 30. Bioenergetics: consumption vs growth + reproductionIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & Ocean What goes in = what comes outFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFish Active MetabolismSPF characteristics  Costs from activityHypothesisManagement ConsumptionE2E modelswhat is end2end Respiration ΔBiomassHydrodynamicmodels  Basal Metabolism  Growthfood webFleet Specific Dynamic Action Egestion- F & Excretion -U  Costs from digestionSummary GonadsSome results ReproductionFinalremarks C = (R + A + S)+ (F + U) + (ΔB + G)AdditionalInfo From Wisconsin bioenergetics model description Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  31. 31. Movement: searching the “best” habitatIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding common Passive transport for eggs (and larvae) (particleground tracking)Small PelagicFishSPF characteristics Active movement for juvenile and adultsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamic “happy until things are bad” “active searching formodelsfood web Inertial movement in a happiness”FleetSummary given direction (follow Analise surroundingSome results the current) environment for bestFinal conditionsremarks When some proxy goes Food, temperature,Additional wrong (temperature,Info etc food): Random search Humston et al., 2004 Railsback et al., 1999 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  32. 32. MortalityIntroductionClimate & Fish PredationClimate & OceanFinding commonground Natural predators FleetSmall PelagicFish Tuna, cod, cetaceans, Fleet characteristicsSPF characteristicsHypothesis mackerel, birds,etc (capacity, trip duration,ManagementE2E models No growth, mortality or ports, etc)what is end2endHydrodynamic reproduction, just Mortality on fish, butmodelsfood web variable abundance also revenueFleetSummary and distribution Controlled bySome results socioeconomicsFinalremarksAdditional Other mortality sourcesInfo “Natural” Starvation (early life stages) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  33. 33. Fleet modellingIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding common Port based, daily tripsgroundSmall Pelagic Expected revenue:FishSPF characteristics historic revenue fromHypothesisManagement locationsE2E models Real revenue: balancewhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodels between cost andfood webFleet benefitSummary Update revenue for nextSome results timeFinalremarks Impose mortality on fishAdditionalInfo California fishing ports Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  34. 34. Fleet modellingIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding common Port based, daily tripsgroundSmall Pelagic Expected revenue:FishSPF characteristics historic revenue fromHypothesisManagement locationsE2E models Real revenue: balancewhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodels between cost andfood webFleet benefitSummary Update revenue for nextSome resultsFinal timeremarks Impose mortality on fishAdditionalInfo Revenue fields Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  35. 35. Fleet modellingIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding common Port based, daily tripsgroundSmall Pelagic Expected revenue:FishSPF characteristics historic revenue fromHypothesisManagement locationsE2E models Real revenue: balancewhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodels between cost andfood webFleet benefitSummary Update revenue for nextSome resultsFinal timeremarks Impose mortality on fishAdditionalInfo Revenue fields Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  36. 36. Summary of the ecosystem modelIntroductionClimate & Fish Model gridClimate & OceanFinding common Lower trophic levelsground (eulerian)Small PelagicFish Fish movementSPF characteristicsHypothesis (lagrangian):Management consumptionE2E models growthwhat is end2endHydrodynamic feedback on LTLmodelsfood web PredatorsFleetSummary mortalitySome results FleetFinal mortalityremarks SocioeconomicAdditionalInfo output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  37. 37. Summary of the ecosystem modelIntroductionClimate & Fish Model gridClimate & OceanFinding common Lower trophic levelsground (eulerian)Small PelagicFish Fish movementSPF characteristicsHypothesis (lagrangian):Management consumptionE2E models growthwhat is end2endHydrodynamic feedback on LTLmodelsfood web PredatorsFleetSummary mortalitySome results FleetFinal mortalityremarks SocioeconomicAdditionalInfo output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  38. 38. Summary of the ecosystem modelIntroductionClimate & Fish Model gridClimate & OceanFinding common Lower trophic levelsground (eulerian)Small PelagicFish Fish movementSPF characteristicsHypothesis (lagrangian):Management consumptionE2E models growthwhat is end2endHydrodynamic feedback on LTLmodelsfood web PredatorsFleetSummary mortalitySome results FleetFinal mortalityremarks SocioeconomicAdditionalInfo output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  39. 39. Summary of the ecosystem modelIntroductionClimate & Fish Model gridClimate & OceanFinding common Lower trophic levelsground (eulerian)Small PelagicFish Fish movementSPF characteristicsHypothesis (lagrangian):Management consumptionE2E models growthwhat is end2endHydrodynamic feedback on LTLmodelsfood web PredatorsFleetSummary mortalitySome results FleetFinal mortalityremarks SocioeconomicAdditionalInfo output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  40. 40. Summary of the ecosystem modelIntroductionClimate & Fish Model gridClimate & OceanFinding common Lower trophic levelsground (eulerian)Small PelagicFish Fish movementSPF characteristicsHypothesis (lagrangian):Management consumptionE2E models growthwhat is end2endHydrodynamic feedback on LTLmodelsfood web PredatorsFleetSummary mortalitySome results FleetFinal mortalityremarks SocioeconomicAdditionalInfo output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  41. 41. Summary of the ecosystem modelIntroductionClimate & Fish Model gridClimate & OceanFinding common Lower trophic levelsground (eulerian)Small PelagicFish Fish movementSPF characteristicsHypothesis (lagrangian):Management consumptionE2E models growthwhat is end2endHydrodynamic feedback on LTLmodelsfood web PredatorsFleetSummary mortalitySome results FleetFinal mortalityremarks SocioeconomicAdditionalInfo output Reproduction Life cycle Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  42. 42. Reproductive output for California sardineIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  43. 43. End-to-end model outputsIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo from CAMEO Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  44. 44. End-to-end model outputsIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo from CAMEO Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  45. 45. Final remarksIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commonground Prototypes of the whole model currently workingSmall Pelagic (Aegean Sea, California Current; papers in preparation)FishSPF characteristicsHypothesis Large synthesis of current knowledge and trueManagement multidisciplinary workE2E modelswhat is end2end There is scope to use the framework both forHydrodynamicmodelsfood web hypothesis testing and to gradually build forecastingFleetSummary capacitySome results Potentially useful for fish management (risk analysis),Finalremarks specially in changing climate scenariosAdditional Other uses include providing ecosystem riskInfo management tools (e.g. oil industry risk analysis, etc.) Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  46. 46. Final remarksIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall Pelagic A word of caution ...FishSPF characteristics “...we urge restraint in using end-to-end models in a trueHypothesisManagement forecasting mode (Clark et al. 2001) until we gain moreE2E models experience regarding their performance”what is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood web “End-to-end models may appear to be an ideal way to meetFleetSummary the need for ecosystem-based approaches, but we shouldSome results resist the temptation of using them to make forecasts forFinal management until their performance and robustness areremarksAdditional adequately tested” (Rose et al., 2010)Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  47. 47. Final remarksIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commonground Related activitiesSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesis New ICES-PICES-CIESM Second internationalManagement WG proposal: Symposium on theE2E modelswhat is end2end Review and stimulate the Effects of ClimateHydrodynamicmodels development of end-to-end Change on the World’sfood webFleet models of marine Oceans (Korea, MaySummary ecosystems 2012)Some resultsFinalremarksAdditional Thank you for your attention!Info Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  48. 48. ROMSIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding common Boundary and initial conditionsgroundSmall Pelagic SODA-POP (1958-2006)FishSPF characteristics Monthly surface elevation, velocity, temperature, andHypothesisManagement salinity fieldsE2E models Carton et al., 2000what is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleet Surface forcingSummary CORE2 (1958-2006)Some resultsFinal 6-hour wind and heat fluxesremarks Daily radiation fluxesAdditionalInfo Monthly precipitation Large and Yeager 2008 Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  49. 49. Estimating the energy allocated to grow and reproduceIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commonground Laboratory experiments + modelsSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristics Wisconsin-type model Dynamic energy budget modelHypothesisManagementE2E models Ci − (Fi + Si + Ei )what is end2end growthi =Hydrodynamicmodels Aei × Cifood web CALpFleet Wi+1 = growthi × × WiSummary CALfSome results − REi × WiFinalremarksAdditionalInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  50. 50. Developing a reproductive expenses module for Wisconsin BioenergeticsIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristics Based on the oociteHypothesisManagement maturation cycleE2E models Estimate reproductivewhat is end2endHydrodynamic expenses and eggmodelsfood web productionFleetSummary Allows for atresia;Some results reabsorbtion of energyFinalremarks and modification ofAdditional spawning frequencyInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  51. 51. Model outputsIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  52. 52. Model outputsIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  53. 53. Model outputsIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  54. 54. Model outputsIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  55. 55. Reproductive output for California anchovyIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers
  56. 56. Reproductive output for California sardineIntroductionClimate & FishClimate & OceanFinding commongroundSmall PelagicFishSPF characteristicsHypothesisManagementE2E modelswhat is end2endHydrodynamicmodelsfood webFleetSummarySome resultsFinalremarksAdditionalInfo Miguel Bernal Climate to Fishers

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