Upcoming SlideShare
×

# PDU 207 Basic Statistics: Probability

1,251 views

Published on

(Lecture slides mostly in Bahasa Indonesia)

Published in: Education
4 Likes
Statistics
Notes
• Full Name
Comment goes here.

Are you sure you want to Yes No
• Be the first to comment

Views
Total views
1,251
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
0
0
Likes
4
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

### PDU 207 Basic Statistics: Probability

1. 1. PROBABILITY PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR SEMESTER GASAL 2014/2015 FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA KULIAH VIII - 16 Oktober 2014
2. 2. ONE DAY OBJECTIVES Mahasiswa memahami definisi probability dan asumsi yang mendasari random sampling; Mahasiswa mampu menggunakan unit normal table untuk menemukan skor probabilitas dan skor yang berkaitan dengan suatu proporsi pada distribusi normal.
3. 3. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
4. 4. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY sudah lama kenal baru kenal PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
5. 5. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY sudah lama kenal baru kenal MANA YANG LEBIH BESAR KEMUNGKINANNYA UNTUK BERTEMU CALON PACAR? PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
6. 6. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY sudah lama kenal baru kenal MANA YANG LEBIH BESAR KEMUNGKINANNYA UNTUK BERTEMU CALON PACAR? mengapa demikian? PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
7. 7. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY For a situation in which several different outcomes are possible, the probability for any specific outcome is defined as a fraction or a proportion of all the possible outcomes. PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
8. 8. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY For a situation in which several different outcomes are possible, the probability for any specific outcome is defined as a fraction or a proportion of all the possible outcomes. probability of A = p(A) = number of outcomes classified as A total number of possible outcomes PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
9. 9. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY For a situation in which several different outcomes are possible, the probability for any specific outcome is defined as a fraction or a proportion of all the possible outcomes. probability of A = p(A) = number of outcomes classified as A total number of possible outcomes PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
10. 10. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY POPULATION SAMPLE PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
11. 11. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
12. 12. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY reverse the probability rules to allow us to move from samples to populations INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
13. 13. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY 2 reverse the probability rules to allow us to move from samples to populations INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
14. 14. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
15. 15. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 RANDOM SAMPLING PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
16. 16. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 RANDOM SAMPLING • each individual in the population has an equal chance of being selected • if more than one individual is being selected, the probabilities must stay constant from one selection to the next PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
17. 17. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 RANDOM SAMPLING • each individual in the population has an equal chance of being selected • if more than one individual is being selected, the probabilities must stay constant from one selection to the next RANDOM SAMPLING WITH/WITHOUT REPLACEMENT PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
18. 18. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
19. 19. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION • the graph is representing the entire population • whenever a population is presented in a frequency distribution graph, it is possible to represent probabilities as proportions of the graph PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
20. 20. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
21. 21. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION 4 3 2 1 2 3,5 2,75 1 2 3 p(X < 3) = ? PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
22. 22. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION 4 3 2 1 2 3,5 2,75 1 2 3 p(X < 3) = ? p(X > 2) = ? PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
23. 23. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
24. 24. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION • the proportions of area contained in each section of the distribution PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
25. 25. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION • the proportions of area contained in each section of the distribution • the sections on the left side of the distribution have exactly the same areas as the corresponding sections on the right side because the normal distribution is symmetrical PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
26. 26. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION • the proportions of area contained in each section of the distribution μ 0 • the sections on the left side of the distribution have exactly the same areas as the corresponding sections on the right side because the normal distribution is symmetrical PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
27. 27. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION • the proportions of area contained in each section of the distribution 0 +1 μ σ • the sections on the left side of the distribution have exactly the same areas as the corresponding sections on the right side because the normal distribution is symmetrical PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
28. 28. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION • the proportions of area contained in each section of the distribution -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 μ σ • the sections on the left side of the distribution have exactly the same areas as the corresponding sections on the right side because the normal distribution is symmetrical PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
29. 29. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION • the proportions of area contained in each section of the distribution 34,1% 13,6% 2,1% -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 μ σ 0,1% • the sections on the left side of the distribution have exactly the same areas as the corresponding sections on the right side because the normal distribution is symmetrical • because the locations in the distribution are identified by z-scores, the percentages shown in the figure apply to any normal distribution PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
30. 30. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
31. 31. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
32. 32. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
33. 33. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
34. 34. PROBABILITY AND THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
35. 35. PROBABILITY AND THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION when a variable is measured on a scale consisting of exactly two categories, the resulting data are called binomial PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
36. 36. PROBABILITY AND THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION when a variable is measured on a scale consisting of exactly two categories, the resulting data are called binomial UKURAN (BESAR dan KECIL) JENIS KELAMIN (WANITA dan PRIA) HUMOR (LUCU dan GARING) PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
37. 37. PROBABILITY AND THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION when a variable is measured on a scale consisting of exactly two categories, the resulting data are called binomial JENIS KELAMIN (WANITA dan PRIA) A, B kategori p q p(A) = probabilitas A p(B) = probabilitas B n jumlah individu atau observasi X berapa kali kategori A/B muncul PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
38. 38. PROBABILITY AND THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION JENIS KELAMIN (WANITA dan PRIA) PEMILIHAN I PEMILIHAN II Wanita Pria keduanya wanita Wanita Wanita tiap pemilihan muncul 1 kali wanita Pria Pria Pria Wanita tidak muncul wanita PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
39. 39. PROBABILITY AND THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION JENIS KELAMIN (WANITA dan PRIA) PEMILIHAN I PEMILIHAN II Wanita Pria keduanya wanita Wanita Wanita tiap pemilihan muncul 1 kali wanita Pria Pria Pria Wanita tidak muncul wanita 0 1 2 jumlah WANITA dalam 2 kali pemilihan PROBABILITAS 0,5 0,25 0 PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
40. 40. PROBABILITY AND THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION JENIS KELAMIN (WANITA dan PRIA) PEMILIHAN I PEMILIHAN II Wanita Pria keduanya wanita Wanita Wanita tiap pemilihan muncul 1 kali wanita Pria Pria Pria Wanita tidak muncul wanita 0 1 2 jumlah WANITA dalam 2 kali pemilihan PROBABILITAS 0,5 0,25 0 PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
41. 41. Want to Know More? Gravetter, F.J. & Wallnau, L.B. (2012). Statistics for the behavioral sciences (9th ed.). Australia: WADSWORTH CENGAGE Learning.