PDU 207 Basic Statistics: Probability

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PDU 207 Basic Statistics: Probability

  1. 1. PROBABILITY PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR SEMESTER GASAL 2014/2015 FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA KULIAH VIII - 16 Oktober 2014
  2. 2. ONE DAY OBJECTIVES Mahasiswa memahami definisi probability dan asumsi yang mendasari random sampling; Mahasiswa mampu menggunakan unit normal table untuk menemukan skor probabilitas dan skor yang berkaitan dengan suatu proporsi pada distribusi normal.
  3. 3. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  4. 4. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY sudah lama kenal baru kenal PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  5. 5. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY sudah lama kenal baru kenal MANA YANG LEBIH BESAR KEMUNGKINANNYA UNTUK BERTEMU CALON PACAR? PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  6. 6. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY sudah lama kenal baru kenal MANA YANG LEBIH BESAR KEMUNGKINANNYA UNTUK BERTEMU CALON PACAR? mengapa demikian? PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  7. 7. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY For a situation in which several different outcomes are possible, the probability for any specific outcome is defined as a fraction or a proportion of all the possible outcomes. PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  8. 8. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY For a situation in which several different outcomes are possible, the probability for any specific outcome is defined as a fraction or a proportion of all the possible outcomes. probability of A = p(A) = number of outcomes classified as A total number of possible outcomes PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  9. 9. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY For a situation in which several different outcomes are possible, the probability for any specific outcome is defined as a fraction or a proportion of all the possible outcomes. probability of A = p(A) = number of outcomes classified as A total number of possible outcomes PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  10. 10. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY POPULATION SAMPLE PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  11. 11. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  12. 12. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY reverse the probability rules to allow us to move from samples to populations INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  13. 13. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY 2 reverse the probability rules to allow us to move from samples to populations INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  14. 14. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  15. 15. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 RANDOM SAMPLING PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  16. 16. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 RANDOM SAMPLING • each individual in the population has an equal chance of being selected • if more than one individual is being selected, the probabilities must stay constant from one selection to the next PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  17. 17. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 RANDOM SAMPLING • each individual in the population has an equal chance of being selected • if more than one individual is being selected, the probabilities must stay constant from one selection to the next RANDOM SAMPLING WITH/WITHOUT REPLACEMENT PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  18. 18. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  19. 19. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION • the graph is representing the entire population • whenever a population is presented in a frequency distribution graph, it is possible to represent probabilities as proportions of the graph PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  20. 20. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  21. 21. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION 4 3 2 1 2 3,5 2,75 1 2 3 p(X < 3) = ? PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  22. 22. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY INFERENTIAL STATISTICS POPULATION SAMPLE PROBABILITY identifying the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 1 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION 4 3 2 1 2 3,5 2,75 1 2 3 p(X < 3) = ? p(X > 2) = ? PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  23. 23. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  24. 24. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION • the proportions of area contained in each section of the distribution PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  25. 25. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION • the proportions of area contained in each section of the distribution • the sections on the left side of the distribution have exactly the same areas as the corresponding sections on the right side because the normal distribution is symmetrical PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  26. 26. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION • the proportions of area contained in each section of the distribution μ 0 • the sections on the left side of the distribution have exactly the same areas as the corresponding sections on the right side because the normal distribution is symmetrical PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  27. 27. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION • the proportions of area contained in each section of the distribution 0 +1 μ σ • the sections on the left side of the distribution have exactly the same areas as the corresponding sections on the right side because the normal distribution is symmetrical PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  28. 28. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION • the proportions of area contained in each section of the distribution -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 μ σ • the sections on the left side of the distribution have exactly the same areas as the corresponding sections on the right side because the normal distribution is symmetrical PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  29. 29. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION • the proportions of area contained in each section of the distribution 34,1% 13,6% 2,1% -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 μ σ 0,1% • the sections on the left side of the distribution have exactly the same areas as the corresponding sections on the right side because the normal distribution is symmetrical • because the locations in the distribution are identified by z-scores, the percentages shown in the figure apply to any normal distribution PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  30. 30. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  31. 31. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  32. 32. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  33. 33. PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  34. 34. PROBABILITY AND THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  35. 35. PROBABILITY AND THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION when a variable is measured on a scale consisting of exactly two categories, the resulting data are called binomial PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  36. 36. PROBABILITY AND THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION when a variable is measured on a scale consisting of exactly two categories, the resulting data are called binomial UKURAN (BESAR dan KECIL) JENIS KELAMIN (WANITA dan PRIA) HUMOR (LUCU dan GARING) PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  37. 37. PROBABILITY AND THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION when a variable is measured on a scale consisting of exactly two categories, the resulting data are called binomial JENIS KELAMIN (WANITA dan PRIA) A, B kategori p q p(A) = probabilitas A p(B) = probabilitas B n jumlah individu atau observasi X berapa kali kategori A/B muncul PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  38. 38. PROBABILITY AND THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION JENIS KELAMIN (WANITA dan PRIA) PEMILIHAN I PEMILIHAN II Wanita Pria keduanya wanita Wanita Wanita tiap pemilihan muncul 1 kali wanita Pria Pria Pria Wanita tidak muncul wanita PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  39. 39. PROBABILITY AND THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION JENIS KELAMIN (WANITA dan PRIA) PEMILIHAN I PEMILIHAN II Wanita Pria keduanya wanita Wanita Wanita tiap pemilihan muncul 1 kali wanita Pria Pria Pria Wanita tidak muncul wanita 0 1 2 jumlah WANITA dalam 2 kali pemilihan PROBABILITAS 0,5 0,25 0 PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  40. 40. PROBABILITY AND THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION JENIS KELAMIN (WANITA dan PRIA) PEMILIHAN I PEMILIHAN II Wanita Pria keduanya wanita Wanita Wanita tiap pemilihan muncul 1 kali wanita Pria Pria Pria Wanita tidak muncul wanita 0 1 2 jumlah WANITA dalam 2 kali pemilihan PROBABILITAS 0,5 0,25 0 PDU 207 STATISTIK DASAR FAKULTAS PSIKOLOGI UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK INDONESIA ATMA JAYA ardhiati © 2014
  41. 41. Want to Know More? Gravetter, F.J. & Wallnau, L.B. (2012). Statistics for the behavioral sciences (9th ed.). Australia: WADSWORTH CENGAGE Learning.

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