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A presentation on Futures perspectives on Schools and Learning.

A presentation on Futures perspectives on Schools and Learning.

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  • 1. WFUNA Millennium Project New Institiutional host with the World Federation of United Nations Associations Recently Expanded to 31 Nodes Trans-Institutional in Organization The Millennium Project of WFUNA is a global participatory futures research think tank of futurists, scholars, business planners, and policy makers who work for international organizations, governments, corporations, NGOs, and universities. Futures Methodologies & Global Foresight Research
  • 2. The Millennium Projects Annual Publication The State of the Future …invaluable insights into the future for the UN, States, and civil society. --- Ban Ki-moon Secretary-General United Nations Enclosed CD contains over 6,000 pages
  • 3. Types of Futurists Mainstream Futurists Marginal Futurists Non Futurists • The Synoptic Generalist • The Futurized Specialist • The Pseudo-Futurist • The General Forecaster • The Closet Futurist • The Straw-Man Futurist • The Normative Generalist • The Future Futurist • The Pop Futurist • The Forgotten Futurist • The Multi-Identify Futurist • The Specialized Futurist
  • 4. WHAT ARE FUTURISTS WRITING ABOUT • GLOBAL WARMING • RATES OF CHANGE • TURNING POINTS • CHAOS POINTS • DARK AGES AHEAD • MACRO-SHIFT
  • 5. Just 25 years ago, there was no… • Internet, WWW, PCs, or mobile phones • Euros, WTO, or NATO in Afghanistan • Talk of globalization, genetically modified food, stem cells, or AIDS pandemic • WWW Augmented Asymmetric warfare • … and most believed that a nuclear WW III would have destroyed the world by now
  • 6. It is not only Korea, accelerating rates of S change have impacted most of the planet. I In mathematics, the point where the value of an otherwise finite N G A H 400,000,000 and continuous function becomes infinite is called a quot;singularity, the point where all mathematical modelling breaks down. U L E 300,000,000 A 200,000,000 R 100,000,000 I T A D ? I 0 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 E S
  • 7. 2050 2025 2007 Wikipedia
  • 8. The Future will be more …than most people think Acceleration of change... …changes what we believe is possible Ubiquitous computing, nano-bio-Info technology, and cognitive science …accelerates that acceleration
  • 9. … and the next 15-25 years? • With falling birth rates much of the work force with be older people AND Robots. • Lines of genetic code written like software code to create new forms of life, some merges with computational intelligence (AI) • Epigenetics changes one generation to the next, safer than genetic engineering • More than half the world spends more than half its time in cyberspace being more “real” that 3D reality - cyber space blurring distinctions • Life extension begins to look like a realistic option • 3-D printing of human organs, and other things • Conscious-Technology becomes an HR Focus
  • 10. Futures Research Methods Integral Futures and the Soft Side of Futures Methodologies
  • 11. Roots of Futures Methodologies Pre History • Ancient Times • Middle Ages Modern Era Meta Industrial Era Pantheism Science & Religion Positivism TransPersonal Visionaries Visionaries Divination Utopians Visionaries • Descartes • Oscar Ichazo • Shamanism, • Mercier • Arthur Clarke • DaVinci • John Lilly • Mythology, • • Bucky Fuller • Newton • W.I.Thompson • Taoism Condorcet • Pascal Futuribles • Willis Harman • Oracle Delphi • Turgot • B. de Jouvenel • Mark Markley Philosophers • Dennis Gabor • Fourier ScienceFiction Integral Futures • Comte • H.G. Wells, Futures Research • Ken Wilber • Marx • Jules Verne • Club of Rome • R. Slaughter • Hudson Institute • S. Inayatullah
  • 12. Modern Roots of the Transpersonal • Gurdjieff’s Fourth Way • De Chardin’s Noosphere • Ichazo’s Arica Institute • Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs • Grof’s Altered States of Consciousness • Jung’s Collective Unconscious
  • 13. Types of Futures Methodologies We will draw two broad distinctions Quantitative Exploratory Qualitative Normative • Typically inspired by analytic • Typically inspired by moral, empirisist thinking humanistic, & appreciative inquiry. Integral Futures.
  • 14. Futures Research Methods Best Suited to Integral / Soft Side Approaches • The Futures Wheel • Scenarios • Participatory Methods • Simulation and Games • Genius Forecasting,Vision, and Intuition • Normative Forecasting • The Multiple Perspective Concept • Causal Layered Analysis
  • 15. Integral Influences in Engineering Education An NSF vision of the ideal Engineering Curriculm • Rustum Roy’s STS programs University of Pennsylvania’s Materials Scientist “Rusty” Roy spear-headed a widely adopted Science Technology and Society program. • The WPI Plan Worcester Polytechnic Institute’s dramatic shift to it’s now famous WPI Plan for Project Centered Engineering Education
  • 16. The WPI Plan • MQP Major Qualifying Project • Real World Experience • IQP Interactive Qualifying Project in Humanities • Highly Collabarative & Interdisciplinary • Student Designed Major
  • 17. Future Learning & Education Possibilities by the year 2030 An international Assessment of 19 possibilities as to: 1. What might make the possibility a reality 2. What would be the positive effects of each 3. What might prevent the possibility 4. If it does occur, how might it have negative impacts
  • 18. Learning & Education Possibilities 2030 1. National programs for improving collective and individual intelligence 2. Just in time knowledge and learning 3. Individualized education 4. Use of VR simulations 5. Continuous evaluation to prevent instability and/or becoming mentally ill. 6. Improved individual nutrition 7. Genetically increased intelligence 8. Use of global on-line simulations as a primary social science research 9. Use of public communications to reinforce pursuit of knowledge. 10. Portable artificial intelligence 11. Complete mapping of human synapses to discover how learning occurs 12. Means for keeping adult brains healthier for longer 13. Chemistry for brain enhancement 14. Web 17.0 15. Integrated life-long learning systems 16. Programs aimed at eliminating prejudice and hate 17. e- Teaching 18. Smarter than human 19. Artificial microbes enhance intelligence
  • 19. Virtual Reality-continues to grow CYBER Town www.cybertown.com
  • 20. Virtual Working in audio space, video space, several kinds of cyberspace and 3 Worlds Dimensional Space at the same time Text Text Text http://www.jvrb.org www.jvrb.org
  • 21. 3-D Multi-User Virtual Worlds • Good News • Bad News
  • 22. A Quick Travelogue Through a Variety of Virtual Worlds -------- These are all 3D Multi- User Worlds, Not Illustrations
  • 23. How to Create Collective Intelligence • Combine people, software, hardware, and information into a system that learns though feedback and that makes better decisions than the separate elements • Two examples: • Futures Intelligence Scanning System • Just in Time Collective Intelligence
  • 24. Futures S&T Intelligence System Press Releases Key Word Monitor Specific Conferences Key Persons Newsletters Internet Websites Seminars Tracking Journals Searching SCANNING Analysis & Synthesis Individual Staff Management Weblog Feedback Database & New Requirements Decisions Management Future Oriented understanding and learning
  • 25. Just in Time Collective Intelligence USER example Politician during a Hearing Staff Collective Intl. System Integrating live experts and data bases Other sources Knowledge Live Experts base+mashup On-Line data bases
  • 26. Psychological Fixation Blocks Creativity & Vision Making it hard to adapt to such rapid change Examples of Functional Fixedness: • Using steam to pump water to water wheels instead of driving the mill directly • Including buggy whip holders on the first automobiles • Constraining computer mediated communications to function like regular mail. • Using multi media to produce interactive Books and Movies or otherwise emulate existing media. • Comparing Cyberspace to the Interstate Highway System Familiar Metaphors encourage Functional Fixedness
  • 27. Functional Fixedness A Legacy of Positivist Thinking that is one of the Greatest Barriers to Mastering the Soft Methodologies
  • 28. Human/Organizational Challenges • The Hanover Principles • Focus on Meaning & Purpose • SOCBED (Self Organizing Community-Based Economic Development • Convolving Space & Cyberspace • Lessons for Planning New Cities
  • 29. The Hannover Principles of Sustainable Development by William McDonough 1. Insist on rights of humanity and nature to co-exist in a healthy, supportive, diverse and sustainable condition. 2. Recognize interdependence. The elements of human design interact with and depend upon the natural world, with broad and diverse implications at every scale. Expand design considerations to recognizing even distant effects. 3. Respect relationships between spirit and matter. Consider all aspects of human settlement including community, dwelling, industry and trade in terms of existing and evolving connections between spiritual and material consciousness. 4. Accept responsibility for the consequences of design decisions upon human well-being, the viability of natural systems, and their right to co-exist. 5. Create safe objects of long-term value. Do not burden future generations with requirements for maintenance of vigilant administration of potential danger due to the careless creation of products, processes or standards. 6. Eliminate the concept of waste. Evaluate and optimize the full life-cycle of products and processes, to approach the state of natural systems, in which there is no waste. 7. Rely on natural energy flows. Human designs should, like the living world, derive their creative forces from perpetual solar income. Incorporate the energy efficiently and safely for responsible use. 8. Understand the limitations of design. No human creation lasts forever and design does not solve all problems. Those who create and plan should practice humility in the face of nature. Treat nature as a model and mentor, not and inconvenience to be evaded or controlled. 9. Seek constant improvement by the sharing of knowledge. Encourage direct and open communication between colleagues, patrons, manufacturers and users to link long term sustainable considerations with ethical responsibility, and re-establish the integral relationship between natural processes and human activity.
  • 30. Refocus on Human Meaning & Purpose Broaden the bandwidth of communication technology to encourage emergent communication & organization styles
  • 31. Abraham Maslow’s Self Actualization Hierachy of Needs Is Not An End Point But a Self Renewing Drive A Humanistic Guide to Homo Digitalis From Survival to Self Actualization A Template for specifying design parameters for new technologies to ensure the emergence of Humanism in the Digital World.
  • 32. Group Methodologies Require Unusual Environments For Best Results • Temporary Autonomous Zones • Open Space Technology Meetings • Adventure Theater • SYNCONS
  • 33. Cultivating the Network of Minds • Learning Community/ Appreciative Systems • Storytelling - Indigenous Wisdom • Transpersonal & Quantum Metaphors • Multi-Spectral Work Place Environments • T. Autonomous Zones
  • 34. Adventure Participatory Methodology based on principles of Social Architecture. Theater 110 Executives from Sprint experience a 4 day adventure in a remote Sedona, setting.
  • 35. Cultivating the Mind of the Network • Self Org. Community Based Economic Dev. • Social Network Agents • Active Packets - Beneficial Viruses • Convolving Cyber and Physical Spaces • Serious Games...
  • 36. Emerging Maps of Ubiquitous Convolved Cyber-Space Fully Convolved MetaVerse A visual taxonomy of different modes of communication and interaction created by designer Nathan Shedroff
  • 37. Cultivating Emergent Business Models • Maruyama’s Morpho- Genetic Joint Ventures • Open Source- Cathedral & the Bazaar, Clue Train Manifesto • Temporary Autonomous Zones as Incubators • Positive Sum Serious Games, Increasing Returns
  • 38. SOCBED Research Methodology Self Organizing Community Based Economic Development A Participatory Futures WayFinders Cybercafe & Community Visioning Center A learning community action research experiment in Maui, Hawaii. Starring the Ke Ala Hoku children’s Vision for Hawaii’s Future.
  • 39. “The way forward is paradoxically to look not ahead but to look around” - John Seeley Brown
  • 40. Beyond New Urbanism - Transforming & Reinventing Korean Cities Reviving PassionDecline Korean Population for Life Decreasing Population Means Leads to Major Shifts in At Current Birthrates “SignificantRedefiningSpace problems cannot Radically in Vacant Space Cyberspace & Real Increase Real Estatethe go out inUse. Value and Seoul be solved atslowlysame level of As the Lights in New Forms Combine created them.” The Meta-Industrial Village thinking that Work As Humanities FamilyNew To Create -Albert Einstein Emerges A Community On Open Source New Footprint Planet Living on Earth Patterns of of Thinking Economy based New Ways Peopleware About Cities & Communities Lead to New Meaning & Purpose Male Female
  • 41. Dawn of a New Era “We find ourselves at the end of one era, and not yet at the beginning of a new one. We are the citizens of closing times, and this makes us pioneers of opening time, bridge builders and architects, the ones who will make it happen. “ - Jean Houston