CS 292: Beyond the One Way Web Matthew Jett Hall, Spring 2008 http://beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com

Shell Global Scenarios Overview Blogging Iran: Esfandiar Zafar What is Disruption? Impacted Industries Chapter 4 Summary CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Shell Global Scenarios Overview

Blogging Iran: Esfandiar Zafar

What is Disruption?

Impacted Industries

Chapter 4 Summary

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

The Three Global Scenarios Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors Flags How do these scenarios impact … IT Professional? … individuals? … governments? CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

The Three Global Scenarios

Low Trust Globalisation

Open Doors

Flags

How do these scenarios impact

… IT Professional?

… individuals?

… governments?

Response To Technology Terrorism Bad Corporate Conduct Generates Regulatory Compliance Accounting and Auditing (Logging) E-Discovery (Preservation and Protocol) State Censorship Increase in Security / Decrease in Trust CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Response To

Technology

Terrorism

Bad Corporate Conduct

Generates

Regulatory Compliance

Accounting and Auditing (Logging)

E-Discovery (Preservation and Protocol)

State Censorship

Increase in Security / Decrease in Trust

Blogging Drivers Rate of Growth State of Blogging in Iran Motivations Penetration Infrastructure used Limitations, Filtering Sample blogs CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Blogging

Drivers

Rate of Growth

State of Blogging in Iran

Motivations

Penetration

Infrastructure used

Limitations, Filtering

Sample blogs

“ Low Cost” of online Publishing Another medium of communication Low cost of entry As easy of writing an email Enhanced by pictures and podcasting Ability to comment And now mobile posting CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

“ Low Cost” of online Publishing

Another medium of communication

Low cost of entry

As easy of writing an email

Enhanced by pictures and podcasting

Ability to comment

And now mobile posting

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Islamic republic in 1979 1980-88, Iran-Iraq War Isolated by sanctions Population Doubled in under 30 yrs Large ex-pat community Reformer: President Khatami ‘97 – ‘05 President Mahmud AHMADI-NEJAD ‘05 - Present CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com) Source: google earth

Islamic republic in 1979

1980-88, Iran-Iraq War

Isolated by sanctions

Population

Doubled in under 30 yrs

Large ex-pat community

Reformer: President Khatami ‘97 – ‘05

President Mahmud AHMADI-NEJAD ‘05 - Present

Youth culture pushing the envelope Seeking a medium to self express Thirst for knowledge and information Lack of trust in government Restrictions in social gatherings Religious Cultural Restrictions in publishing and media CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Youth culture pushing the envelope

Seeking a medium to self express

Thirst for knowledge and information

Lack of trust in government

Restrictions in social gatherings

Religious

Cultural

Restrictions in publishing and media

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

IR - 70,431,905 population - Country size: 1,648,195 sq km Capital City: Tehran - population 7,185,831 ('07) 18,000,000 users as of Aug/07, 25.6% penetration, per ITU. 465,100 Broadband Internet connections as of Sept/07, per ITU Source: http://www.internetworldstats.com/ CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

IR - 70,431,905 population - Country size: 1,648,195 sq km

Capital City: Tehran - population 7,185,831 ('07)

18,000,000 users as of Aug/07, 25.6% penetration, per ITU.

465,100 Broadband Internet connections as of Sept/07, per ITU

Source: http://www.internetworldstats.com/

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com) Conclusions : Tremendous growth in Internet usage over 7 years Substantial portion of total Internet adoption in Middle East Amplifies the youth culture’s ability to challenge authority access the world’s popular culture Population 2007 Est. Usage 2000 Usage Latest Data % Population % of M.E. 7 Year Usage Growth Iran 65,397,521 250,000 18,000,000 27.5% 53.7% 7,100.0% Middle East 192,755,045 3,284,800 33,510,500 17.4% 100% 920.2%

Conclusions :

Tremendous growth in Internet usage over 7 years

Substantial portion of total Internet adoption in Middle East

Amplifies the youth culture’s ability to

challenge authority

access the world’s popular culture

Persian Blog BlogFa Blog Sky Mihan Blog Parsi Blog CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Persian Blog

BlogFa

Blog Sky

Mihan Blog

Parsi Blog

www.wordpress.org www.youtube.com … CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

www.wordpress.org

www.youtube.com

…

OpenNet Initiative Most Restrictive Filtering China Iran Detailed Report on Iran 2004-2005 CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

OpenNet Initiative

Most Restrictive Filtering

China

Iran

Detailed Report on Iran 2004-2005

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Government and/or ISPs? Persian Text reads: “ Dear Customer Access to this site is not possible.” Captured from a blog in Persian CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Government and/or ISPs?

Persian Text reads:

“ Dear Customer

Access to this site is not possible.”

Captured from a blog in Persian

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Back of a bus seat in Tehran Persian text reads “fast filter breaker” CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Back of a bus seat in Tehran

Persian text reads “fast filter breaker”

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Discussing gOS and Web 2.0 CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Discussing gOS and Web 2.0

Persian blog entry on how to pass filters to access Google, Gmail, Blogfa CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Persian blog entry on how to pass filters to access Google, Gmail, Blogfa

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

“ The action of rending or bursting asunder; violent dissolution of continuity; forcible severance. “ (OED) Out with the old, in with new! Sources Social Change: Revolution Technical Innovation: Obsolescence CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

“ The action of rending or bursting asunder; violent dissolution of continuity; forcible severance. “ (OED)

Out with the old, in with new!

Sources

Social Change: Revolution

Technical Innovation: Obsolescence

When an industry is disrupted It impacts that industry It impacts the suppliers of that industry It impacts the sellers of the products It impacts the people transporting the products CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

When an industry is disrupted

It impacts that industry

It impacts the suppliers of that industry

It impacts the sellers of the products

It impacts the people transporting the products

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com) CIA World Factbook: July 2007 Age Male Female Total 0-14 31,152,050 29,777,438 60,929,488 15-64 100,995,752 101,365,035 202,360,787 65+ 15,858,477 21,991,195 37,849,672 Total 148,006,279 153,133,668 301,139,947

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com) http://www.pewinternet.org/ Web 2.0

Notice emergence – late ‘04 / ‘05 CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com) Web 2.0

Notice emergence – late ‘04 / ‘05

Learning and Dissemination Broadcast and Print Advertising Health Care Research Politics Shopping CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Learning and Dissemination

Broadcast and Print

Advertising

Health Care

Research

Politics

Shopping

How do you meet your reference needs? How do you learn? Classroom? Recorded Lecture Live Lecture E-Learning Computer Based Training? CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

How do you meet your reference needs?

How do you learn?

Classroom?

Recorded Lecture

Live Lecture

E-Learning

Computer Based Training?

“ A type of web page designed so that its content can be edited by anyone who accesses it, using a simplified markup language.” wiki, n. " The Oxford English Dictionary . 2nd ed. 1989. OED Online . Oxford University Press. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

“ A type of web page designed so that its content can be edited by anyone who accesses it, using a simplified markup language.” wiki, n. " The Oxford English Dictionary . 2nd ed. 1989. OED Online . Oxford University Press.

WIKIPEDIA 2001: Wiki Software and Web Server from a dude in St. Pete Utilizes wiki social editing Donation supported Style and structure defined by the contributor “ Our goal is to get to Britannica quality, or better.” Jimmy Wales, Founder BRITANNICA “ December 1768, and the whole work was completed in 1771 in three volumes containing 2,391 pages, four folded leaves of unnumbered tables, and 160 copperplates” Professional editors” Revenue model Style and structure defined by the editorial process Gold Standard for information quality CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

WIKIPEDIA

2001: Wiki Software and Web Server from a dude in St. Pete

Utilizes wiki social editing

Donation supported

Style and structure defined by the contributor

“ Our goal is to get to Britannica quality, or better.” Jimmy Wales, Founder

BRITANNICA

“ December 1768, and the whole work was completed in 1771 in three volumes containing 2,391 pages, four folded leaves of unnumbered tables, and 160 copperplates”

Professional editors”

Revenue model

Style and structure defined by the editorial process

Gold Standard for information quality

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

1974 : The 15th edition was given a world point of view by more than 4,000 contributing authors from more than 100 countries. The editorial creation of the work cost $32 million exclusive of printing costs, representing the largest single private investment in publishing history up to that time. “ Encyclopædia Britannica .&quot; Encyclopædia Britannica . 2008. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. < http://search.eb.com/eb/article-2112 >. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

1974 : The 15th edition was given a world point of view by more than 4,000 contributing authors from more than 100 countries. The editorial creation of the work cost $32 million exclusive of printing costs, representing the largest single private investment in publishing history up to that time.

“ Encyclopædia Britannica .&quot; Encyclopædia Britannica . 2008. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. < http://search.eb.com/eb/article-2112 >.

December 2005: Nature magazine “Internet encyclopaedias go head to head” by Jim Giles 42 entries examined “ the average science entry in Wikipedia contained around four inaccuracies; Britannica, about three.” CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

December 2005: Nature magazine “Internet encyclopaedias go head to head” by Jim Giles

42 entries examined

“ the average science entry in Wikipedia contained around four inaccuracies; Britannica, about three.”

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com) Date # Articles Increase from Previous Year 1/1/2002 19,700 19,700 1/1/2003 96,500 76,800 1/1/2004 188,800 92,300 1/1/2005 438,500 249,700 1/1/2006 895,000 456,500 1/1/2007 1,560,000 665,000 1/1/2008 2,153,000 593,000

Compression of Time Compression of Distance Modes of Learning Live Lecture Recorded Lecture Interactive Seminar Asynchronous / Interactive Question: Is Face to Face / Live Better? CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Compression of Time

Compression of Distance

Modes of Learning

Live Lecture

Recorded Lecture

Interactive Seminar

Asynchronous / Interactive

Question: Is Face to Face / Live Better?

Course Management Systems Telepresence Messages come to you, not to a desk CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Course Management Systems

Telepresence

Messages come to you, not to a desk

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Anywhere Learning Technical Certifications CISSP, Network+, Security+ Instructor Led Through web based conferencing CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Anywhere Learning

Technical Certifications

CISSP, Network+, Security+

Instructor Led

Through web based conferencing

TRADITIONAL Print Book Newspaper Magazines Advertising Yellow Pages Print Broadcast DISRUPTION Books Lulu.com Amazon kindle Newspaper Blogs On-Line editions Advertising Search engines Reduction in print readership Dispersion of readership to sites of narrow, topical interest Broadcast ABC, CBS, NBC  Cable Cable  YOUTUBE On-demand, digital distribution DVR What you want when you want it CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

TRADITIONAL

Print

Book

Newspaper

Magazines

Advertising

Yellow Pages

Print

Broadcast

DISRUPTION

Books

Lulu.com

Amazon kindle

Newspaper

Blogs

On-Line editions

Advertising

Search engines

Reduction in print readership

Dispersion of readership to sites of narrow, topical interest

Broadcast

ABC, CBS, NBC  Cable

Cable  YOUTUBE

On-demand, digital distribution

DVR

What you want when you want it

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Are newspapers dead? HBO – The Wire Episode 53 Baltimore Sun CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Are newspapers dead?

HBO – The Wire

Episode 53

Baltimore Sun

“ NAA is a nonprofit organization representing the $59 billion newspaper industry and more than 2,000 newspapers in the U.S. and Canada.” -  naa.org CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

“ NAA is a nonprofit organization representing the $59 billion newspaper industry and more than 2,000 newspapers in the U.S. and Canada.” -  naa.org

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

701 hits It’s your work You took someone and redirected their energy 701 times They could have been reading the New York Times They could have been watching CBS Instead they were reading your blog! Your blog --- 701 Hits as of 6 Feb 08

701 hits

It’s your work

You took someone and redirected their energy 701 times

They could have been reading the New York Times

They could have been watching CBS

Instead they were reading your blog!

Problem – how do I reach micro-markets? Banner Ads Flash Ads Text Message Ads Paid placement in search Blog topic related ads CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Problem – how do I reach micro-markets?

Banner Ads

Flash Ads

Text Message Ads

Paid placement in search

Blog topic related ads

Web 1.0 Electronic Medical Record CPOE Imaging and Diagnostics Web 2.0 moves towards Personalized Evidenced based medicine On-demand access to clinical records for patient and physician access to clinical data regarding procedure outcomes access to clinical data regarding pharmacological outcomes Error reduction and quality improvement Reduced Cycle Time CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Web 1.0

Electronic Medical Record

CPOE

Imaging and Diagnostics

Web 2.0 moves towards

Personalized

Evidenced based medicine

On-demand

access to clinical records for patient and physician

access to clinical data regarding procedure outcomes

access to clinical data regarding pharmacological outcomes

Error reduction and quality improvement

Reduced Cycle Time

Personalized Medicine On-Demand 24 x 7 x 365 Physician & Patient Messaging Yes privacy people -- that is my cholesterol CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Personalized Medicine

On-Demand 24 x 7 x 365

Physician & Patient Messaging

Yes privacy people -- that is my cholesterol

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Distributed Computation SETI Cancer Supercomputiing National Cyber Infrastructure Many Disciplines Researchers data sets Scientific instrumentation CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Distributed Computation

SETI

Cancer

Supercomputiing

National Cyber Infrastructure

Many

Disciplines

Researchers

data sets

Scientific instrumentation

Personal Crusades Utah Taser Bad Cop News Scandal Old School vs. 1.0 Campaigning CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Personal Crusades

Utah Taser

Bad Cop News

Scandal

Old School vs. 1.0

Campaigning

Old School – Rodney King New School – Utah Taser Guy CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Old School – Rodney King

New School – Utah Taser Guy

This author really loves the po-po CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

This author really loves the po-po

Monica Lewinsky + Bill Clinton + HTTP+ TCP/IP = Major Scandal Spark CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Monica Lewinsky

+

Bill Clinton

+

HTTP+ TCP/IP

=

Major Scandal Spark

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

June 17, 1972 Watergate Hotel Break In Presidents Reporters Large Papers Even a movie about the reporters! CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

June 17, 1972

Watergate Hotel

Break In

Presidents

Reporters

Large Papers

Even a movie about the reporters!

Youtube Debates Question directly from the population CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Youtube Debates

Question directly from the population

Amazon.com rating systems Netflix Reviews It’s nice to know what others experienced before you buy your products! Based upon your ratings, systems can now recommend things to you. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

Amazon.com rating systems

Netflix Reviews

It’s nice to know what others experienced before you buy your products!

Based upon your ratings, systems can now recommend things to you.