Social Media Analysis: Present and Future Matthew Hurst Live Labs, Microsoft

Thesis Social media analysis tends to separate out content analysis and structure (link) analysis. A lot of accuracy in analysis is left on the table – it’s time for a theory of social media . Industry is focused on the relationship between the consumer and the consumed – a more general goal of business intelligence can help grow the space .

Social media analysis tends to separate out content analysis and structure (link) analysis. A lot of accuracy in analysis is left on the table – it’s time for a theory of social media .

Industry is focused on the relationship between the consumer and the consumed – a more general goal of business intelligence can help grow the space .

Social Media Analysis: Now Sentiment analysis (NLP) Topics (keyword analysis) Author analysis (text based) Community analysis (social network theory) Influence/ranking (link analysis)

Sentiment analysis (NLP)

Topics (keyword analysis)

Author analysis (text based)

Community analysis (social network theory)

Influence/ranking (link analysis)

CONTENT STRUCTURE TIME URL THREADS WORDS PHRASES FRAGMENTS TOPICS SENTIMENT COMMUNITY INFLUENCE

INFLUENCE/AUTHORITY

Definitions Influence: Intentionally or unintentionally affect the actions or beliefs of the subject. Authority: belief that X’s subjective statements in the area of T are more likely to (be useful|be accurate|be true) than statements by others.

Influence:

Intentionally or unintentionally affect the actions or beliefs of the subject.

Authority:

belief that X’s subjective statements in the area of T are more likely to (be useful|be accurate|be true) than statements by others.

Application Engagement: locating key individuals Alerting: at what level of authority or influence do we need to act? Weighting: metrics within a system weighted by features of author.

Engagement: locating key individuals

Alerting: at what level of authority or influence do we need to act?

Weighting: metrics within a system weighted by features of author.

Current Model

Current Model

And so it went in the US media: silence, indifference, with a dash of perverse misinterpretation. Consider Michael Hirsh's laughably naive commentary that imagined Bush had already succeeded in nailing down SOFA, to the chagrin of Democrats. DailyKos – smintheus, Jun 15 2008

And so it went in the US media: silence, indifference, with a dash of perverse misinterpretation. Consider Michael Hirsh's laughably naive commentary that imagined Bush had already succeeded in nailing down SOFA, to the chagrin of Democrats.

DailyKos – smintheus, Jun 15 2008

Considerably more recently, a Time Magazine swamp denizen is shocked to find John McCain apparently suggesting that support for withdrawing from Iraq and opposition to The Surge is the same as not supporting the troops. BTC News, Jun 15 2008

Considerably more recently, a Time Magazine swamp denizen is shocked to find John McCain apparently suggesting that support for withdrawing from Iraq and opposition to The Surge is the same as not supporting the troops.

BTC News, Jun 15 2008

While the traditional media is slowly starting to take John McCain’s straight talking image with increasingly large grains of salt, his base isn’t quite ready to give up on their favorite son. Jonathan Alter’s bizarre defense of McCain after he was caught telling an outright lie , perfectly captures that reluctance[.] DailyKos – BarbinMD, Jun 15 2008

While the traditional media is slowly starting to take John McCain’s straight talking image with increasingly large grains of salt, his base isn’t quite ready to give up on their favorite son. Jonathan Alter’s bizarre defense of McCain after he was caught telling an outright lie , perfectly captures that reluctance[.]

DailyKos – BarbinMD, Jun 15 2008

Subtle Links A citation can be described along the following dimensions: Target : what is the citation intended to refer to? The page, an entity mentioned on the page, the author, …? Rhetorical purpose : why does the author cite? Introduce a topic, support an argument, expand a discussion, …? Subjectivity: does the author cite in a positive way, a negative way?

A citation can be described along the following dimensions:

Target : what is the citation intended to refer to? The page, an entity mentioned on the page, the author, …?

Rhetorical purpose : why does the author cite? Introduce a topic, support an argument, expand a discussion, …?

Subjectivity: does the author cite in a positive way, a negative way?

New Model

Solutions Some initial research shows promise – this is a solvable problem. Modeling Trust and Influence in the Blogosphere Using Link Polarity , Anubhav Kale, Amit Karandikar, Pranam Kolari, Akshay Java, Tim Finin and Anupam Joshi, 2007 Blog Link Classification , Justin Martineau, Matthew Hurst, 2008 A solution will involve analysis of the text around the link.

Some initial research shows promise – this is a solvable problem.

Modeling Trust and Influence in the Blogosphere Using Link Polarity , Anubhav Kale, Amit Karandikar, Pranam Kolari, Akshay Java, Tim Finin and Anupam Joshi, 2007

Blog Link Classification , Justin Martineau, Matthew Hurst, 2008

A solution will involve analysis of the text around the link.

SUBJECTIVE STATEMENTS

Subjectivity Research

Taxonomy of Subjectivity Subjective Statement: <holder, <belief>, time> The moon is made of green cheese. . Opinion: <holder, <prop, orientation>, time> He should buy the Prius. . Sentiment: <holder, <target, orientation>, time> I loved Raiders of the Lost Arc! .

What is Opinion? How are opinions formed and what causes them to be expressed? What are the qualities of opinions? Invariant? Latent? Synthetic? What are the social/psychological aspects of opinion? One expresses an opinion either with some communicative intention, or opinions are implicit in other statements.

How are opinions formed and what causes them to be expressed?

What are the qualities of opinions?

Invariant?

Latent?

Synthetic?

What are the social/psychological aspects of opinion?

One expresses an opinion either with some communicative intention, or opinions are implicit in other statements.

Current Approaches Text, not person, has opinion. Sentence or document level processing. Some advances in reference resolution.

Text, not person, has opinion.

Sentence or document level processing.

Some advances in reference resolution.

Opinion Process Impetus Synthesis Expression: s Interpretation: s’ Re-Expression: s’’

Transmission of Opinion John said that this is a great restaurant : do we trust John? Is he an authority? Does he have influence? I’ve heard that this is a great restaurant : from whom? Several trusted sources? This is a great restaurant : have you experienced it yourself?

John said that this is a great restaurant : do we trust John? Is he an authority? Does he have influence?

I’ve heard that this is a great restaurant : from whom? Several trusted sources?

This is a great restaurant : have you experienced it yourself?

Content and Structure Opinions surface as statements There is social – structural – context to the generation and performance of these statements Statements are transmitted through the network.

Opinions surface as statements

There is social – structural – context to the generation and performance of these statements

Statements are transmitted through the network.

Social Media Analysis 2.0 COMMUNITY BELIEFS PERSONALITY INFLUENCE AUTHORITY COMMUNITY BELIEFS PERSONALITY INFLUENCE AUTHORITY THEORY OF SOCIAL MEDIA WORDS PHRASES FRAGMENTS URL THREADS

Summary Content (e.g. subjectivity) and structure (e.g. influence) need to be considered in conjunction to provide accurate analyses of social media data.

Content (e.g. subjectivity) and structure (e.g. influence) need to be considered in conjunction to provide accurate analyses of social media data.

SOCIAL MEDIA ANALYSIS NEXT

Social Media Analysis 2.0 Current systems measure the relationship between the consumer and the consumed . Current applications are used by marketing departments , brand managers , etc.

Current systems measure the relationship between the consumer and the consumed .

Current applications are used by marketing departments , brand managers , etc.

PRODUCT REPORT

Actionability Requires modeling of business process Need to understand who can take action when Requires modeling of business domain Product definition Production process

Requires modeling of business process

Need to understand who can take action when

Requires modeling of business domain

Product definition

Production process

PRODUCT C1 C2 C3 SUPPLIER LOCATION MATERIALS REPORT REPORT REPORT REPORT

Company I work for Nokia 891 Microsoft 23, 800 Google 12, 100 Virgin Atlantic 111 Apple 5, 760 Samsung 1, 370 Dell 7, 860

Conclusions Progress in social media theory required to advance the state of the art for analytics. Richer domain modeling will lead to larger markets for social media analysis.

Progress in social media theory required to advance the state of the art for analytics.

Richer domain modeling will lead to larger markets for social media analysis.