08 5-10 westendpros

275 views
194 views

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
275
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
9
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

08 5-10 westendpros

  1. 1. 2010 California Real Estate Market Update West End Professionals Rancho Cucamonga August 5, 2010 Leslie Appleton Young Chief Economist CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  2. 2. US and California Economic Conditions
  3. 3. Gross Domestic Product <ul><li>2009: -2.4%; 2010 Q1: 3.7% Q2: 2.4% </li></ul>ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $ ANNUAL QTRLY 2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1938 (-3.4%)
  4. 4. Unemployment Rate <ul><li>California vs. United States </li></ul>SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
  5. 5. California Non-farm Job Growth SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division Month-to-Month Changes 1/08 – 5/10
  6. 6. Nonfarm Employment By Region SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
  7. 7. Consumer Confidence Index: Summer Gloom INDEX, 100=1985
  8. 8. Consumer Price Index <ul><li>May 2010: All Items +2.0%; Core +.9% </li></ul>PERCENT CHANGE OVER LAST 12 MONTHS
  9. 9. Historic Monetary Stimulus
  10. 10. Mortgage Rates at 50 Year Lows SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
  11. 11. Conv/Conf 30-Yr FRM vs. N.C. Jumbo 30-Yr FRM <ul><li>Spread </li></ul>SOURCE: Inside Mortgage Finance, compiled by C.A.R. Note: data for research purposes only, do not redistribute L/R Avg Spread: 1.6%
  12. 12. Distressed Commercial RE Growing billions Distressed properties include those that are in bankruptcy, foreclosures, those that have received lender forbearance, or lender REO .
  13. 13. Economy Summary <ul><li>Worst behind us, slow recovery expected </li></ul><ul><li>Government support in first half of 2010; slower second half </li></ul><ul><li>Private sector economy must accelerate thereafter </li></ul><ul><li>Labor market: mixed signals, job growth in late ’10 </li></ul><ul><li>Inflation: in check for next year to 18 months </li></ul><ul><li>Monetary policy: no rate hikes in first half of year, up by ¼ point by year-end but only if recovery looks stable </li></ul>
  14. 14. 2010 Forecast
  15. 15. U.S. Economic Outlook SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS® Forecast Date: June 18, 2010
  16. 16. California Economic Outlook SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS® Forecast Date: June 18, 2010
  17. 17. California Real Estate Market
  18. 18. Sales Hit Bottom in 2007, Up in 2008 & 2009 <ul><li>California Sales of Existing Homes and Median Price </li></ul>UNITS/MEDIAN PRICE $ SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS® -61% -25% -44%
  19. 19. Dollar Volume of Sales Peaked in ’05 Down 54% Thru ‘09 % Change $ in Billion SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS® -54% *Based on $248,000 Median Price . *
  20. 20. Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence <ul><li>California, June 2010 Sales: 492,800 Units, down 4.2% YTY, Down 5.3% YTD </li></ul>INDEX UNITS SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
  21. 21. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes <ul><li>California, May 2010: $324,430, Up 23.2% YTY </li></ul>SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  22. 22. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes <ul><li>California, June 2010: $311,950, Up 13,6% YTY </li></ul>SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  23. 23. Sales By Price Range October 2004 – present SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association, C.A.R.
  24. 24. Peak vs. Trough Price SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  25. 25. Trough vs. Current Price – Jun 2010 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  26. 26. Peak vs. Current Price – Jun 2010 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  27. 27. California’s Million-Dollar Home Sales Source: DataQuick Information Systems Year Number of Homes
  28. 28. Unsold Inventory Index <ul><li>California, June 2010: 4.8 Months </li></ul>SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® MONTHS
  29. 29. Unsold Inventory Index (Months) SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  30. 30. Distressed Sales to Total Sales Ratio
  31. 31. Distressed Sales to Total Sales Ratio SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  32. 32. Distressed Sales Breakdown (June 2010)
  33. 33. Mortgage Foreclosure & Delinquency Rates <ul><li>California: Q4-2009 </li></ul>SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association Delinquencies: Long Run Average: 4.1% Foreclosure Rate: Long Run Average: 1.0%
  34. 34. REOs Are Even, Cancellations Are Up <ul><li>May-10: 13,719 REOs • 4,027 Sold to 3 rd Party • 17,262 Cancelled </li></ul>SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com 6 Month Average: REO: 13,709 3 rd Party: 3,741 Cancelled: 15,553
  35. 35. Summing Up Foreclosures <ul><li>Government Intervention kept Foreclosures around 30-40% of home sales toward the end of 2009, pace expected to continue into 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>NODs have come down from historic highs in first half of 2009 but have spread into higher priced areas </li></ul><ul><li>Cancellations on the rise – due in large part to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>statutory requirement that a foreclosure sale be held within one year-forced cancellation ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>some form of loan workout: HAMP modification, short sale or refinance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Filing errors </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Lenders lack the incentive to flood the marketplace with Foreclosures </li></ul>
  36. 36. Riverside County Economic Profile
  37. 37. Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence <ul><li>Riverside County, June 2010: 1,627 Units, Down 18.0% YTD, Down 18.5% YTY </li></ul>SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®; The Conference Board INDEX UNITS
  38. 38. Sales of Existing Detached Homes <ul><li>Riverside County, 2009: 21,026 Units, Up 21.7% YTY </li></ul>SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® UNITS ANNUAL MONTHLY
  39. 39. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes <ul><li>Riverside County, June 2010: $202,850, Up 17.8% YTY </li></ul>SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ®
  40. 40. Median Price Annual Comparison <ul><li>Riverside County, 2009: $172,714, Down 27.7% YTY </li></ul>SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® MONTHLY ANNUAL
  41. 41. Median Home Sales Price <ul><li>Riverside County </li></ul>SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.
  42. 42. Median Home Sales Price <ul><li>Riverside County </li></ul>SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.
  43. 43. Unsold Inventory Index <ul><li>Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, June 2010 : 3.9 Months </li></ul>SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® MONTHS
  44. 44. Median Time on the Market <ul><li>Single-Family Homes – Riverside/San Bernardino, May 2010: 31.3 Days </li></ul>SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  45. 45. Foreclosures <ul><li>Riverside County </li></ul>SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council
  46. 46. Ratio of Foreclosures to Home Sales <ul><li>Riverside County </li></ul>SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council
  47. 47. San Bernardino County Economic Profile
  48. 48. Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence <ul><li>San Bernardino County, June 2010: 566 Units, Down 22.7% YTD, Down 25.5% YTY </li></ul>SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®; The Conference Board INDEX UNITS
  49. 49. Sales of Existing Detached Homes <ul><li>San Bernardino County, 2009: 7,937 Units, Up 34.5% YTY </li></ul>UNITS SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® ANNUAL MONTHLY
  50. 50. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes <ul><li>San Bernardino County, June 2010: $170,260, Up 17.4% YTY </li></ul>SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ®
  51. 51. Median Price Annual Comparison <ul><li>San Bernardino County, 2009: $149,578, Down 31.9% YTY </li></ul>SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® MONTHLY ANNUAL
  52. 52. Median Home Sales Price <ul><li>San Bernardino County </li></ul>SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.
  53. 53. Median Home Sales Price <ul><li>San Bernardino County </li></ul>SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.
  54. 54. Unsold Inventory Index <ul><li>Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, June 2010 : 3.9 Months </li></ul>SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® MONTHS
  55. 55. Median Time on the Market <ul><li>Single-Family Homes – Riverside/San Bernardino, May 2010: 31.3 Days </li></ul>SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  56. 56. Foreclosures <ul><li>San Bernardino County </li></ul>SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council
  57. 57. Ratio of Foreclosures to Home Sales <ul><li>San Bernardino County </li></ul>SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council
  58. 58. Rancho Cucamonga
  59. 59. Sales of Single-Family Detached Home SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics Rancho Cucamonga, July 2010: 114 Units, -18.0% MTM, -5.0% YTY
  60. 60. Median Price of Single-Family Detached Home SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics Rancho Cucamonga, July 2010: $342,000, +0.6% MTM, +9.3% YTY
  61. 61. Number of For Sale Properties SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics Rancho Cucamonga, July 2010: 654 Units, -3.3% MTM, -6.8% YTY
  62. 62. Months Supply of Inventory <ul><li>Rancho Cucamonga, July 2010: 2.9 Months </li></ul>SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
  63. 63. Rancho Cucamonga: Foreclosure Mapping (Hybrid) Preforeclosure: 289 • Auction: 520 • Bank Owned: 111 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
  64. 64. Rancho Cucamonga: Foreclosure Mapping (Street) Preforeclosure: 289 • Auction: 520 • Bank Owned: 111 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com Ontario
  65. 65. Ontario
  66. 66. Sales of Single-Family Detached Home SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics Ontario, July 2010: 96 Units, -23.8% MTM, -35.6% YTY
  67. 67. Median Price of Single-Family Detached Home SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics Ontario, July 2010: $226,000, +1.9% MTM, +15.9% YTY
  68. 68. Number of For Sale Properties SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics Ontario, July 2010: 550 Units, -11.3% MTM, -12.7% YTY
  69. 69. Months Supply of Inventory <ul><li>Ontario, July 2010: 2.0 Months </li></ul>SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
  70. 70. Ontario: Foreclosure Mapping (Hybrid) Preforeclosure: 276 • Auction: 495 • Bank Owned: 130 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
  71. 71. Ontario: Foreclosure Mapping (Street) Preforeclosure: 276 • Auction: 495 • Bank Owned: 130 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com Ontario
  72. 72. Fontana
  73. 73. Sales of Single-Family Detached Home SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics Fontana, July 2010: 230 Units, -25.1% MTM, -42.8% YTY
  74. 74. Median Price of Single-Family Detached Home SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics Fontana, July 2010: $205,000, -4.7% MTM, +13.9% YTY
  75. 75. Number of For Sale Properties SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics Fontana, July 2010: 1,431 Units, -8.6% MTM, -21.1% YTY
  76. 76. Months Supply of Inventory <ul><li>Fontana, July 2010: 3.0 Months </li></ul>SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
  77. 77. Fontana: Foreclosure Mapping (Hybrid) Preforeclosure: 772 • Auction: 1,407 • Bank Owned: 279 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
  78. 78. Fontana: Foreclosure Mapping (Street) Preforeclosure: 772 • Auction: 1,407 • Bank Owned: 279 Source: ForeclosureRadar.com Ontario
  79. 79. <ul><li>Comprehensive tool to manage and analyze your foreclosure business </li></ul><ul><li>Generate more leads from your website </li></ul><ul><li>Get listings priced to sell and buyers off the fence </li></ul><ul><li>Get short sale and REO transactions approved </li></ul><ul><li>Find more Short sale and REO business </li></ul><ul><li>Visit www.foreclosureradar.com </li></ul><ul><li>Enter promo code RADAR99 for a FREE 7 Day Trial </li></ul><ul><li>and an exclusive C.A.R. 10% discount. </li></ul><ul><li>See flyer insert within your packet for more information </li></ul>
  80. 80. 2009 Housing Market Survey
  81. 81. Median Net Cash To Sellers 2005: $220K 2009: $50K Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale? $50,000
  82. 82. Sellers Reporting a Net Cash Loss Percent of All Sellers Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale? Long Run Average = 9.3%
  83. 83. Proportion of Home Sellers Planning to Repurchase Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?
  84. 84. Proportion of First-Time Homebuyers California Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?
  85. 85. Median Price to Median HH Income Ratio <ul><li>California </li></ul>SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS® Average Over Years Shown: 6:1 Ratio
  86. 86. Multiple Offers: Over 1/2 homes sold 2009 had multiple offers
  87. 87. Percent of Buyers with Zero Down Payment First-Time Buyers vs. Repeat Buyers 5.0% 3.7% 2.8%
  88. 88. Percent of All Cash Sales
  89. 89. Buyer Use of Property (All Homes)
  90. 90. 2010 Forecast
  91. 91. California Housing Market Outlook Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Forecast Date: June 18, 2010
  92. 92. 2010 Survey of Homebuyers March 2010
  93. 93. Share of Distressed Sales (All Buyers) Q. Was the home you bought a regular market sale, an REO/ bank-owned property, a short sale, or other?
  94. 94. Became Aware of Home Purchased Through Agent Q. Did you become aware of the home you purchased through a real estate agent?
  95. 95. Home Buyers Who Looked at Newspaper/Magazine Ads to Search for a Home Q. Did you look at newspaper/magazine ads to search for a home?
  96. 96. More Buyers Expected Home Prices to Appreciate 2009 vs 2010 Q. Do you think home prices in your neighborhood will go up, down, or stay flat in 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? All Buyers
  97. 97. Mean = 56.6 months; Median = 60 months Time Planned to Stay at Current Home Before Selling It (All Buyers) Q. How many months do you plan to stay at your current home before selling it?
  98. 98. Down Payment As a Percent of Home Price (2010) First-Time Buyers Mean =23.1% Repeat Buyers Mean = 37.3% Q. How much did you put down as your down payment for the home purchased (in percent of the home value)?
  99. 99. Buyers Who Know the Terms of Their Loan Q. Do you know the term of your loan?
  100. 100. 2009: Mean = 8.1 Median = 9 2010: Mean = 8.5, Median = 9 Scale: “1” = very easy, “10” = very difficult Level of Difficulty to Obtain Financing (All Buyers) Q. Please rate how easy of difficult it was to obtain financing on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being very easy and 10 being very difficult.
  101. 101. Reasons for Satisfaction with the Real Estate Agent You Used Q. Why do you have that level of satisfaction with your agent?
  102. 102. Advice for Real Estate Agents Q. What advice would you give to real estate agents to improve the process or the level of service?
  103. 103. In closing….
  104. 104. CA New Housing Permits <ul><li>CA is not building new homes – housing shortage in our future? </li></ul>SOURCE: CBIA Household Growth: Approx 200,000/yr A drop of 83% since 2004
  105. 106. From the Bookshelf…
  106. 113. Business Tools You Can Use May 2010
  107. 114. www.car.org  Business Tools  Market Response Center www.car.org/tools/smart
  108. 115. CUSTOMIZABLE MARKET REPORT: C.A.R. Market Snapshot® Send Your Clients the Latest Market Analysis Co-Branded with Your NAME AND CONTACT INFO!! www.car.org  Market Data  Research Publications  Market Snapshot
  109. 116. Get the Latest 411 on the Market or Economy: C.A.R. Real Estate 411 www.car.org  Market Data  Real Estate 411 <ul><li>Stay Up-To-Date on the latest 411 on the Market or Economy. </li></ul><ul><li>Answer Your Clients Questions </li></ul><ul><li>Send your Clients to a Great Resource </li></ul><ul><li>Quick easy to read format </li></ul>
  110. 117. www.car.org  Market Data  Speeches Speeches & Presentations The End – Thank You Follow Us on Twitter: @ssutachan
  111. 118. Thank You [email_address]

×