Mgt Building A Green Business Osu Jan09
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Mgt Building A Green Business Osu Jan09

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martin tobias presents lessons on starting a green business

martin tobias presents lessons on starting a green business

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Mgt Building A Green Business Osu Jan09 Mgt Building A Green Business Osu Jan09 Presentation Transcript

  • Building a Green Business: Lessons and Opportunities Martin Tobias January 2009
  • Tech nerd to Green and back
  • Martin Tobias
    • In the beginning
      • Medford HS ‘82, Mensa, the other thing.
      • OSU ‘86, ASOSU Treasurer, Lambda Chi Alpha, Bus/CS
    • Accenture, Information systems consulting
      • Senior Manager, ‘87-’91, Microsoft, Sullivan Payne, Coopervision Silco, RR Donnelley
    • Microsoft Corp., Software
      • Program Manager, ‘91-’97, 4 years in Europe
    • Loudeye Technologies, Inc., Digital Media services
      • Founder, Chairman, CEO, ‘97-’00, lead investor, $0-$12M revenue.
      • Grew from 1 to >400 people, senior mgt, board, 5 acquisitions.
    • Ignition Partners, Venture Capital
      • Venture Partner ‘02-present (active ‘02-’04)
      • Infrastructure software investments, Cloudmark, Inc.
    • Imperium Renewables, Inc., Biodiesel producer
      • CEO/Chairman ‘05-’08 first investor, $0-$89M revenue.
      • Scaled up tech from pilot to largest BD plant in world.
    • Kashless, Inc., ReCommerce
      • CEO/Founder ‘08
    • Other
      • 27 personal venture investments
      • Founder Northwest Energy Angel Network.
      • Leading man, Biker Dreams the movie.
      • Blog www.deepgreencrystals.com , www.frombitstobarrels.com
  • From Bits to Barrels
    • 1982 Timex Sinclair, Kaypro, Basic
    • 1984 OSU Cobol, cards, Pascal on MAC
    • 1985 Leading Edge, ASOSU Treasurer, 1 st lab in MU.
    • 1987 RPG on S/38 Andersen Consulting, 2 patents
    • 1989 Microsoft, power to the PC
    • 1997 Loudeye, a/v on every computer, 3 patents
    • 2001 Ignition Partners, fund next big thing
    • 2004 Bored with tech, need next big market
    • 2005 CEO Imperium Renewables, Biodiesel for all
    • 2008 Surf
    • 2009 CEO Kashless, Inc., ReCommerce
  • The Scary Stuff
  • WE are the problem
  • THEY have the resources
  •  
  • Where is the Peak? We passed it
  • % of WW GDP for oil
  • Oil still relatively cheap
  • Dramatic Changes: An Ice-free Arctic? 1979-2003: Progressive Loss of Arctic Ice
  • The big carbon emitters
  • The Frequency of Weather Related Disasters Data from Swiss Re 2005
  • Can we actually do anything?
  • New York City circa 1950
  • New York City December 2001
  • Diesel Grew Quickly in Europe Source: ACEA www.acea.be
  •  
  • Yes we can
  • Reading
    • The Bottomless Well , Peter Huber
    • The Prize , Daniel Yergin
    • Sleeping with the Devil , Robert Baer
    • Infidel , Ayaan Hirsi Ali
    • Energy at the CrossRoads , Vaclav Smil
  • Key Insights
    • Oil crisis, not energy crisis
    • Americans are lazy
    • Solutions must be upgrades not platforms
    • Entrepreneurs will find the solutions
    • Corn Ethanol
    • Biodiesel
    • Solar PV
    • Wind
    • Geothermal
    The Markets You Think Of The New Green
    • Engines ($200B)
    • Lighting ($80B - US)
    • Appliances ($10’sB+ )
    • Batteries + Flow Cells ($50B+)
    • Gasoline ($500B+)
    • Diesel ($500B+)
    • Jet Fuel ($100B+)
    • Cement ($100B+)
    • Water ($500B+)
    • Glass ($40B)
    • BioPlastics ($10’sB+)
    • Generation - $250B - US
    • Solar Thermal
    • EGS
    • Clean Coal
    • New Nukes
    Think big markets not “ green ”
  • Areas of promise
    • Software meets energy
    • Next generation liquid fuels, esp feedstock
    • Enhanced Geothermal
    • Unregulated water power
    • Captive energy markets (NE, Hawaii, etc.)
    • Materials with strong IP
    • Waste to energy, enhanced biomass
    • Consumer solutions today.
  • How I decide
    • Early market with meta trends I believe
    • Technology advantage
    • Personal advantage
    • Some kind of fundamental inefficiency
    • Direct path to market
    • Minimal regulatory
    • Capitalization matches environment
  • Why Loudeye?
    • Trend: Audio/video become standard
    • 1997: 14.4 modem, Real Audio, QT CD only, MS Netshow, $100/minute encoding
    • Problem: multi-format, cost of encoding, software applications.
    • Value prop: Scale multi-format input/output encoding and mgmnt apps.
    • Result: the first large scale digital media deployments, Apple iTunes, XM Sat, etc.
  • Why Imperium Renewables?
    • Trend: Peak oil, lack of drop in alts.
    • 2004: $45/brl oil, 25MG BioD, peak oil
    • Problem: scale of alternative liquid fuels.
    • Value prop: Scale up capacity, grow alts.
    • 2007: $145/brl oil, 300MG BioD, peak oil.
    • Result: the largest biodiesel manufacturing in world, world wide plan, biojet, algae.
  • Some lessons from Imperium
    • The Good
      • Technology and scale up worked
      • Right about petroleum prices, structural change.
      • Capital markets initially favorable.
      • Biodiesel fundamentals WAY better than Ethanol.
    • The Bad
      • Tech not enough when inputs rise faster than outputs.
      • Long term debt for new build technologies VERY HARD.
      • When your comps tank (ethanol), you tank.
      • Don’t give your first big customer equity.
      • Don’t change growth strategy in midstream.
  • Biodiesel in Indonesia
    • $115K start up cost
    • 1,500l/day coconut biodiesel plant.
    • 9,000Rp/l fully loaded production costs B100
    • Diesel 13,000Rp/l delivered.
    • diesel customer saves $, local economy keeps money on island.
    Sumba Foundation and Tobias Foundation
  • Why Kashless, Inc.?
    • Trend: Recession, climate change.
    • 2008: 15M users, 60Mpv, CL, FS, <1%
    • Problem: inefficient market for free, reuse and lack of marketing awareness.
    • Value prop: eBay for free stuff, GHG tracking, local, social net integration.
    • Result: ?
  • Competition $ $ features features craigslist Kashless Kash Craig All products Y Y Y - Y Tax receipt Y - - - - Adv. Search Y - - - Y Reputation Y - - - Y Scheduling Y - - - - Points Y - - - Y eComm integr. Y - - - Y Multi notification Y - - - Y Widgets Y - - Y Y Delivery tools Y - - Y Y Cost % of trans 0-2 0 0 2-5 9-20
  • Success in Green means…
    • Change Coal, materials, efficiency, or oil.
    • High capital effeciency
      • Total raise to exit < $25M
      • Declining costs with scale.
      • Short innovation cycle.
    • Clear, direct path to customer.
    • Pricing power in value chain.
    • Low regulatory hurdles.
    • Product can achieve unsubsidized competitiveness.
  • In the end…
    • Do what you are passionate about.
    • Look for ability to add unique value
    • Work is better than study.
    • [email_address]
    • We have internships
    • http://www.deepgreencrystals.com
  • Background slides
  • Recognized Renewable Energy Expert
  • Liquid fuels data dump
  • Some fun with Oil numbers
    • +$60/barrel = + $735B for top 8 oil producers
    • Russia is now leading oil producer
    • 70% of oil futures are “financial” in 2007 up from 40% in 2005
    • 95% production gains from spare capacity
    • 1% oil demand increase = 40% price increase
    • WW production essential flat since 2005
  • Oil Infrastructure Rusting Away
    • Almost every component of oil and gas system beyond original design life and rusting away.
    • If the system is not rebuilt, supply will artificially suffer acute drop in next decade.
    • Rebuilding the industry infrastructure will cost $ trillions ($50 to $100 trillion?) (Simmons).
  • Time for Oil to go bye-bye
  • GHG data dump
  • U.S.: Emerging State-Level CO2 Regulation Source: CO2e.com
  • www.azfoo.net