Simulating Human Behaviour for  Understanding and Managing  Environmental Resource Use       Jager &Mosler (2007)      Pre...
Authors• Wander Jager     – University of Groningen     – Expertise:           • Marketing           • Agent basedsimulati...
Abstract• Demonstrate how simulations can be used to:     – Identify interaction between human behaviour and       complex...
Observingeffects of humanbehaviouronnatural resources                   Plato discussed the erosion                   of A...
Agent-based simulation allows for…• …experimenting with complexities at                                             Indivi...
Agent-based simulation allows for… (2)• …experimenting with complexities at                                               ...
Agent-based simulation allows for… (3)• …experimenting with complexities at                                          Envir...
Agent-basedsimulationallowsfor… (4)• …the modeling of  interactionsbetweenindividualsVisualisation: Screendump of Netlogo ...
Agent-basedsimulationallowsfor… (5)• …experimentingwith  policymeasures  without harming  people and the  environmentVisua...
Whatshouldbesimulated and how?• Jager & Janssen (2003): Theorieson     – Needs     – Decision-makingprocesses     – Proces...
Whatshouldbesimulated and how? (2)• Formalization of needs is important:     – Whensatisfaction of personal       needshar...
Whatshouldbesimulated and how? (3)• Decisionprocessesrefer to:     – Peoplemakingchoices     – Storage of information     ...
Whatshouldbesimulated and how? (4)• Socialprocessesplay important roles:     – Diffusion of newbehaviour and practices    ...
Whatshouldbesimulated and how? (5)• Conclusion:      “The essentialpoint is that the output - in      terms of simulatedbe...
Simulating Behavioral Processes inEnvironmental Management• Jager & Mosler discuss 3 simulation studies  that illustrate h...
HowUncertaintyStimulatesOver-Harvesting• Jager et al (2002): Whatrole does  socialcontagionplay in over-harvestingdue to  ...
How Uncertainty Stimulates Over-Harvesting (2)                  4                   Uncertainty   strategies              ...
HowUncertaintyStimulatesOver-Harvesting (3)• Results:    – An “optimism effect” was found         1.   Fish stock is high ...
HowUncertaintyStimulatesOver-Harvesting (4)• Implications:     – Good environmental news may lead to “bad habits”     – Si...
A Simulation of DecisionMakingfor theSustainableUse of Environmental Resources• Mosler&Brucks (2003): How people use  envi...
A Simulation of DecisionMakingfor theSustainableUse of Environmental Resources (2)• Model: Social-ecological relevance    ...
A Simulation of DecisionMakingfor theSustainableUse of Environmental Resources (3)• Implications:     – Specific interacti...
Transitions in a Virtual Society• Jager et al (2000): Will more realistic agents  result in different human-environment  i...
Transitions in a Virtual Society (2)• 16 agents with 4 needs     – Subsistence (Satisfied by fish or gold)     – Identity ...
Exploring the Effects ofEnvironmentalPolicyStrategiesforSustainableManagement of Environmental Resources• Jager&Mosler dis...
DeterminingPolicyEffectiveness of aCar-SpeedingCampaign• The model (Mosler et al, 2001)                                   ...
DeterminingPolicyEffectiveness of aCar-SpeedingCampaign (2)• Realworldcampaign “Slow Down”     – Switzerland (Münsingen)  ...
Determining Policy Effectiveness of aCar-Speeding Campaign (3)• Results     - Differences between measured and simulated e...
Determining Policy Effectiveness of aCar-Speeding Campaign (4)• Conclusions     1. Possible to replicate outcomes of disso...
Environmental Technologies forHouseholds:SharedSolar Power Plants• The model (Mosler et al, 2002)                  Ecologi...
Environmental Technologies forHouseholds:SharedSolar Power Plants (2)• Santa Maria de Loreto (Cuba)Visualisation: www.sola...
Environmental Technologies forHouseholds:SharedSolar Power Plants (3)• Results     – Simulating a power shortage. Known co...
Environmental Technologies for Households:Shared Solar Power Plants (4)• Conclusions     – Simulations can help       advi...
Diffusion of Green Products• Model (Jager et al, 2002)     – Consumers and firms were simulated as populations       with ...
Diffusion of Green Products (2)• Model      – Stable market (5 green and 5 non green)      – Continuous product-developmen...
Diffusion of Green Products (3)• Results     – Tax regime makes largest difference in stable market           • If tax inc...
Diffusion of Green Products (4)• Conclusions     – Assumptions on decision making and related market       dynamics are cr...
Implicationsfor Research and PolicyMaking ofEnvironmentalProblems• Simulation offer richmethodology• Significant contribut...
Suggestions• Addvisualisations, e.g.     – Data tables     – Screenshots     – Flowcharts     – Graphs         Thishelpsma...
M1             M2Questions    M3    +discussion             M4             M5             M6
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Simulating Human Behaviour for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use

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Presentatie die ik samen met Nikki Demandt heb gegeven op 19-12-2011 in het kader van de course Selforganization, cognition and social systems van de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen

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Simulating Human Behaviour for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use

  1. 1. Simulating Human Behaviour for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use Jager &Mosler (2007) Presentation 19-12-2011: Martin Specken & Nikki Demandt
  2. 2. Authors• Wander Jager – University of Groningen – Expertise: • Marketing • Agent basedsimulation• Hans Joachim Mosler – University of Zurich – Expertise: • Modelingsocialsystems • Agent basedsimulationSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  3. 3. Abstract• Demonstrate how simulations can be used to: – Identify interaction between human behaviour and complex environmental systems – Explore possible effects of policy strategies – Contribute to our understanding – Manage environmental resources in sustainable waySimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  4. 4. Observingeffects of humanbehaviouronnatural resources Plato discussed the erosion of Atticadue to agriculture360 B.C. 2011 0 1968 Hardin’s paper “Tragedy of the commons” led to experimentaltraditionwhich led to anabundance of laboratory studiesVisualisation: www.oplossingsgerichtmanagement.nl and www.themotivatedyouth.comSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  5. 5. Agent-based simulation allows for…• …experimenting with complexities at Individual levelVisualisation: Martin Specken, Nikki DemandtSimulating Human Behaviour for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use (Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  6. 6. Agent-based simulation allows for… (2)• …experimenting with complexities at Social level Individual levelVisualisation: Martin Specken, Nikki DemandtSimulating Human Behaviour for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use (Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  7. 7. Agent-based simulation allows for… (3)• …experimenting with complexities at Environmental level Social level Individual level …by formalizing agents in an artificial worldVisualisation: Martin Specken, Nikki DemandtSimulating Human Behaviour for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use (Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  8. 8. Agent-basedsimulationallowsfor… (4)• …the modeling of interactionsbetweenindividualsVisualisation: Screendump of Netlogo model byWander JagerSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  9. 9. Agent-basedsimulationallowsfor… (5)• …experimentingwith policymeasures without harming people and the environmentVisualisation: Milgram experiment (1963)SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  10. 10. Whatshouldbesimulated and how?• Jager & Janssen (2003): Theorieson – Needs – Decision-makingprocesses – Processes of (social) learningVisualisation: Google images, www.biojournaal.nlSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  11. 11. Whatshouldbesimulated and how? (2)• Formalization of needs is important: – Whensatisfaction of personal needsharms the environment – Thismay effect need satisfaction in the long runVisualisation: www.atgrannyshouse.blogspot.com and www.sp.nlSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  12. 12. Whatshouldbesimulated and how? (3)• Decisionprocessesrefer to: – Peoplemakingchoices – Storage of information – Formation of attitudesVisualisation: www.amazon.comSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  13. 13. Whatshouldbesimulated and how? (4)• Socialprocessesplay important roles: – Diffusion of newbehaviour and practices – NetworkeffectsVisualisation: www.blogs.comSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  14. 14. Whatshouldbesimulated and how? (5)• Conclusion: “The essentialpoint is that the output - in terms of simulatedbehaviour - has oftennotbeen hypothesizedbeforehand”• Even in simplesituations we are notcapableto predict the outcomeSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  15. 15. Simulating Behavioral Processes inEnvironmental Management• Jager & Mosler discuss 3 simulation studies that illustrate how agent-based simulation 1. Contributes to explain well-known empirical phenomena 2. Allows for replicating multiple experimental results by allowing for several factors to interact 3. May be integrated with models of environmental systemsSimulating Human Behaviour for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use (Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  16. 16. HowUncertaintyStimulatesOver-Harvesting• Jager et al (2002): Whatrole does socialcontagionplay in over-harvestingdue to the desireforshort-termoutcomes?• Model: – Need for subsistence -> Fishing for food – Need for leisure -> Not-fishing – Satisfaction = Sum of both needs – Uncertainty [expected catch – actual catch]SimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  17. 17. How Uncertainty Stimulates Over-Harvesting (2) 4 Uncertainty strategies High Low Automated High imitate repeat no memory Satisfaction update of other agents Reasoned social Low deliberate compare memory update of other agentsVisualisation: Martin Specken and Nikki DemandtSimulating Human Behaviour for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use (Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  18. 18. HowUncertaintyStimulatesOver-Harvesting (3)• Results: – An “optimism effect” was found 1. Fish stock is high (High satisfaction, low uncertainty) 2. Repeat own behaviour 3. Agents only consider short-term outcomes 4. Lower fish stock not observed 5. Continuous fishing 6. Fish stock low (Low satisfaction, high uncertainty) 7. Deliberation: Too late to restore fish stock – An “adaptation effect” was found • More agents -> Less resource protecting behaviourSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  19. 19. HowUncertaintyStimulatesOver-Harvesting (4)• Implications: – Good environmental news may lead to “bad habits” – Simulation can lead to policy measures + promotional strategies of “proper behaviour” – Empirical follow-up studies can be focussed of identifying effects in the fieldSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  20. 20. A Simulation of DecisionMakingfor theSustainableUse of Environmental Resources• Mosler&Brucks (2003): How people use environmental resources will be influenced by: – Their own goals – Size of the resource – Assessment of the way other people use it• Model: Simulation of resource use• Tried to replicate findings of lab experiments with real participantsSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  21. 21. A Simulation of DecisionMakingfor theSustainableUse of Environmental Resources (2)• Model: Social-ecological relevance – Individual in environmental resources dilemma simultaneous weights social and ecological factors – Social: • Attributions • Social values • Others’ behaviour Individual Consumption – Ecological: • State of the resource • Resource uncertaintySimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  22. 22. A Simulation of DecisionMakingfor theSustainableUse of Environmental Resources (3)• Implications: – Specific interactions of variables so far examined separately can be demonstrated – Parts of complicated process of decision making can be captured – Policy measures can be more adequate and will be more effective in changing resource useSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  23. 23. Transitions in a Virtual Society• Jager et al (2000): Will more realistic agents result in different human-environment interaction compared to standard economically optimizing agents?• Model: Lakeland – Fish stock in a lake – Gold mine (pollution) – Economical submodel • Sell fish and/or gold • Buy food and/or status-enhancing productsSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  24. 24. Transitions in a Virtual Society (2)• 16 agents with 4 needs – Subsistence (Satisfied by fish or gold) – Identity (Relative amount of money) – Leisure (Share of time spent on leisure) – Freedom (Total amount of money owned)• 4 decision strategies – Homo psychologicus • 4 strategies – Homo economicus • deliberate strategySimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  25. 25. Exploring the Effects ofEnvironmentalPolicyStrategiesforSustainableManagement of Environmental Resources• Jager&Mosler discuss 3 simulation studies that examined the effects of policy measures 1. Allows for linking of emperical context and simulations 2. May contribute to applicability of simulation results in practical policy settingsSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  26. 26. DeterminingPolicyEffectiveness of aCar-SpeedingCampaign• The model (Mosler et al, 2001) 1 Resistance to Change Attitude Attitude Self-Responsability 3 Behavior PersonalValues Resistance to changeBehavior 2Visualisation: Mosler et al (2001), colorseditedby Martin Specken and Nikki DemandtSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  27. 27. DeterminingPolicyEffectiveness of aCar-SpeedingCampaign (2)• Realworldcampaign “Slow Down” – Switzerland (Münsingen) – Cognitive dissonance theory (Festinger, 1957) – Self-commitment instrument: 1. Drivers committed themselves in writing 2. Prompts 3. Feedback – Questionnaire surveyconductedbefore and afterSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  28. 28. Determining Policy Effectiveness of aCar-Speeding Campaign (3)• Results - Differences between measured and simulated end values Differenc Half 0 – 10 11 – 20 21 - Missing e Attitude 50% (30) 37% (22) 13% (8) 7 1 Behavior 45% (30) 20% (13) 35% (23) 1 Attitude 69% (34) 15% (7) 16% (8) 18 2 Behavior 29% (19) 32% (21) 39% (26) 1Visualisation: Mosler et al (2001), edited by Martin Specken and Nikki DemandtSimulating Human Behaviour for Understanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use (Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  29. 29. Determining Policy Effectiveness of aCar-Speeding Campaign (4)• Conclusions 1. Possible to replicate outcomes of dissonance reduction processes 2. Improves understanding of intra-individual processes 3. Determine most successful parameters for a campaignSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  30. 30. Environmental Technologies forHouseholds:SharedSolar Power Plants• The model (Mosler et al, 2002) Ecological factors - resource size Ecologicalinfluence - resource Ecologicalrelevance uncertainty Social- Weighting Use ecological change relevance Social Socialrelevance factors Socialinfluence -use of others - socialvaluesVisualisation: Mosler et al (2002), editedby Martin Specken and Nikki DemandtSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  31. 31. Environmental Technologies forHouseholds:SharedSolar Power Plants (2)• Santa Maria de Loreto (Cuba)Visualisation: www.solar-e.comSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  32. 32. Environmental Technologies forHouseholds:SharedSolar Power Plants (3)• Results – Simulating a power shortage. Known components: 1. State of batteries 2. Consumption of neighbors – A Run of 144 hours with 50 household agents was executed • No rules were enforced – Same or better consumption when no rules were enforcedSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  33. 33. Environmental Technologies for Households:Shared Solar Power Plants (4)• Conclusions – Simulations can help advice politicians in design and build sustainable environmental –technical systemsVisualisation: www.theepochtimes.comSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  34. 34. Diffusion of Green Products• Model (Jager et al, 2002) – Consumers and firms were simulated as populations with different behavioral characteristics – Need satisfaction depended on: 1. Social need: same preferences as neighbors 2. Personal need: personal preference or taste – Four decision strategies – Two conditions • Homo psychologicus • Homo economicusSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  35. 35. Diffusion of Green Products (2)• Model – Stable market (5 green and 5 non green) – Continuous product-development market – Taxing: • Full tax at t = 50 (fast) • Gradual tax increase from t = 25 to t = 75 (slow)Visualisation: www.eenvandaag.nl and www.sp.nlSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  36. 36. Diffusion of Green Products (3)• Results – Tax regime makes largest difference in stable market • If tax increase slow -> a slow increase of green products • If tax increase fast -> a fast increase of green products – Behavioral characteristics makes largest difference in continuous product development market • Homo economicus: – Slower response to change in tax – Personal needs was sooner satisfied due to product development • Homo psychologicus: – agents developed habitual behaviorSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  37. 37. Diffusion of Green Products (4)• Conclusions – Assumptions on decision making and related market dynamics are critical in understanding effect of policy measures – Experiment provided a perspective on how policy measures can be tested in a multi-agent simulationSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  38. 38. Implicationsfor Research and PolicyMaking ofEnvironmentalProblems• Simulation offer richmethodology• Significant contribution to studybehavior- environmentalinteractions• Valuabletoolforexploringeffectiveness of policymeasuresin complex environments Behavioraltheory + Agent-based empirical case studies simulationsSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  39. 39. Suggestions• Addvisualisations, e.g. – Data tables – Screenshots – Flowcharts – Graphs Thishelpsmaking the goal of the article more clearSimulatingHumanBehaviourforUnderstanding and Managing Environmental Resource Use(Jager, Mosler, 2007)
  40. 40. M1 M2Questions M3 +discussion M4 M5 M6

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