Radterror Spb Oct04 Paper
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Radterror Spb Oct04 Paper Radterror Spb Oct04 Paper Document Transcript

  • TETRAD Group Incorporated Mobile Early Warning, Intervention and Response to Nuclear Terrorist Actions Martin Dudziak, PhD Chief Scientist, TETRAD Group Incorporated martin@forteplan.comIntroductionA nuclear materials "dirty bomb" or radiation dispersal device (RDD) has two functions,one of which is obvious - the destruction of lives and property through a directconsequence of the explosion and through contamination leading to radiation-relatedsickness, death and genetic damage as well as property contamination and the need forquarantine or removal. The second which can be taken for granted as the underlyingmotive to any terrorist action or "terrakt" (to use the Russian noun) is the destabilizationof a nation-states social, economic and political structure. While there are arguments forand against the realistic threat level of an RDD terrakt [1,2,3], the social destabilizationvalue of even a poorly engineered and low-lethality RDD makes this still an attractivemodus operandi for terrorist groups. There is a very powerful psychological difference ineffect between a bomb made of conventional explosives or even a non-explosive weaponinvolving anthrax, ricin or sarin and the dispersion of a radioactive dustcloud through anurban commercial district or an underground metro system, regardless of the fact that theexplosive force used to deliver that cloud may not be any greater than that used todemolish the Oklahoma Federal Building or even one metro train car. For these reasons,the terror-effect of a radiation-related attack will be more lasting and deeper than somealternatives and it must be assumed that those terrorist organizations such as are equippedwith the financial means to undertake such a project are actively engaged in doing so atthe present time.[4]The Nomad Eyes™ project was conceived in the mid-Nineties in the USA as an approachto employing stochastic and self-organizing principles along with fundamentalbiological-based models for the design, deployment and operation of fault-tolerantwireless and wired networks of sensors, using heterogenous and in particular low-quality,"noisy" units.1 The focus was upon principally airborne biological and chemical sensingas well as more conventional audio and video data collection in hostile environments.Since the events of September, 2001, focus on the project has been redirected towarddevelopment of a set of tools for use in civilian environments and in particular for areasof high probability for terrorist targeting. Such targets include airports, train stations,subway/metro stations and other areas where there is high traffic of pedestrians often inconditions of crowding and slow movement with limited egress in the event of anycatastrophe, terrakt or otherwise.The technical progress in mobile wireless communications and consumer-class devicessuch as 3G mobile phones with camera and video capability (e.g., Nokia 6670, 72xx,7610, Samsung D410, Motorola V80 and many others), coupled with the deployment of1 "noisy" in the sense of being unpredictable individually in data quality and accuracy over given intervalsof time, and being subject to destruction or alteration by either natural effects or deliberate tampering. 1
  • Intl Conf on Radiation Terrorism, RTC, 10/2004 M. Dudziakcommercial networks capable of sustaining higher-bandwidth data traffic over bothcellular voice and internet channels, plus systems like the Cisco 3200 mobile router haveushered a growth in public acceptance for the technology and its offerings. This hasopened opportunities for a new approach to information collection and analysis forapplications such as counterterrorism, one that was not conceivable even a few years ago.Unfortunately, the technological abilities and resources of terrorist cadres have increaseddramatically as well through the same internet and wireless capabilities and the ease inobtaining RDD components. [5]Nomad Eyes is based upon the open-ended distribution and movement of many mobilewireless sensors and data collectors that feed asynchronously, based upon animprovisation of a classical MIMD parallel processing paradigm, into a server cluster thatprovides data management, itself a variant of industry-standard ETL2 processing used incommercial database and data warehouse management. The analytics and forecastingapplications are in turn based upon inverse problem methods originally developed forsurface and subsurface (including ground-penetrating) sensing. Figure 1 on the followingpage provides an overview of the architecture in the abstract.In simple terms, Nomad Eyes aims to take first responder models such as are beingimplemented in many cities and countries (Baltimore, Maryland (USA)3 being anexample of an early implementer) and take the technology of mobile radiation sensingand early warning out of the exclusive space of post-terrakt first response and put it intothe space of advance warning and detection that can be used to prevent the terrakt fromoccurring and apprehend the perpetrators. The logic in Nomad Eyes uses ad hoc andCOTS4 networks and the general public, relies upon massive and irregular data sources,and proposes that a combination of inverse methods plus heuristic and Bayesianreasoning coupled with the HUMINT5 element can provide a strong toolset for preventiveapplication as well as to provide "double-duty" fashion the telecomms and distributionbackbone for first-responders to better do their work and perhaps most importantly, forthe general population to react in ways that increase safety, survivability, and thereduction of panic.Asymmetry and AsynchronicityNuclear materials and other materials for a dirty bomb may originate from and betrafficked through unpredictable paths. Security against theft is obviously paramount buteven if security of military, power plant and heavy industry sources of radioactivematerials were hypothetically ideal, this will not prevent an effective dirty bomb. The2 Extract-Transfer-Load, a mechanism for populating data warehouses real-time from transaction-intensivedatabases where down-time of the latter must be minimized in order to obviate disruption of the businessprocesses of the organization. The ETL application within Nomad Eyes enables the use of agents ortriggers for activating other responses including those in security and first-responder teams3 Baltimore has implemented within its Fire, Police and Emergency Preparedness forces the widespread useof mobile radiation monitors carried by personnel and onboard vehicles. However, this only addressespost-terrakt response.4 "Commercial-Off-The-Shelf" - referring to products that are in widespread (standard) commercial use.5 HUMan INTelligence; intelligence-gathering that is intensively reliant on human operatives and analysts 2
  • Intl Conf on Radiation Terrorism, RTC, 10/2004 M. Dudziak EVENT ! Class (x) objects received by servers results in generation of n graphs representing hypothetical x y… relational maps; the majority are discarded, but events of interest trigger feedback to both autonomous and human-based nodes for additional collection and reorienting. No node or subset of nodes is reliant and the whole may be considered as a dynamic-geometry cellular automata. EVENT ! Data Post-analysis acquisition/analysis/feed report/advice/cmd into net Average 3G consumer Server smart videophone BCM-equipped phone Mobile PC or desktop (client Specialized BCM analysis Live Talking Book type system with power, location, operator reqmts. Figure 1 - Nomad Eyes asymmetric threat event data flow (first stage) 3
  • Intl Conf on Radiation Terrorism, RTC, 10/2004 M. Dudziak"good stuff" is not required.6 Tracking countermeasures based upon detection of traceradiation alone, even were it possible to measure every shipping container coming into aport or airport, are insufficient because of the precautions and intelligence that must beattributed as being within the power of the terrorist team to implement. However, thepseudo-random dispersal of mini- and micro-scale radiation sensors coupled with theintegration of such information in a real-time knowledge discovery and inferenceenvironment that includes other classes of data (e.g., known or predicted purchases ofmaterials by potential suspects, presence or absence of increased data traffic withinsuspect groups and centers, recorded orders and requests for building permits, licenses, orconstruction data that could be used in the planning of the terrakt campaign) - all of this itis claimed will amplify the knowledge-value of what may otherwise seem to beinsignificant variances and circumstantial evidence.An illustration of the value of apparent outlier or irrelevant data and the value of theADaM (Active Data Mover) ETL and the Nomad Eyes internal graph-theoretic patternassociation model (I3BAT)7 can be found in the case history of the World Trade Centerattacks of Sept, 2001. If the graph construct within I3BAT (a data structure used to buildand test similarities and differences among thousands of potential graphs linking knownor suspect data such as reported locations of terrorist suspects, purchases or movementsof terrakt device ingredients, and some of the types of data referenced earlier) containssufficient temporal and geographic logical arcs connecting nodes that may include: (potential-sec-terror-risk (person)) (anomaly (financial transaction)) (anomaly (public data)) (potential-sec-terror-risk (target)) (anomaly (information req)) (potential-bomb-component (purchase)) etc.then there can be agent-driven triggers that simultaneously accomplish two things:(a) data is brought to the attention of the human authorities and agents responsible fornext actions(b) automatic modifications are made to those mobile wireless data collection elementsthat are available and relevant for use in the monitoring and defense against terroristactions including pre-terrakt planning. This moreover consists of two types ofmodification: autonomous modulation of "robot" sensors - devices that are collecting images, audio, chemical or radiological sense-data and transmitting into the Nomad Eyes network, and which may be moveable, rotatable or otherwise tunable under remote control messages to active and accessible participants in the broad general-public community of Nomad Eyes users.6 Or, why try to steal Armagnac and Glenfyddich when only ethyl alcohol is needed for a campstove?7 Integrated Intelligent Image-Guided Behavior Analysis and Tracking, described below and in other papers 4
  • Intl Conf on Radiation Terrorism, RTC, 10/2004 M. DudziakGoing back to Sept., 2001, a linkage of data concerning the presence of known foreignerswith immigration and documentation problems in the USA outside of their known areasof local residence, plus temporally contiguous requests by the same or probable-samepersons for purchase of cell phones, plus data linking the social circle of the same withtraining at a flight school, plus travel of a number of individuals within the same generalcategory, could have raised a number of alerts and triggers resulting in a differentmorning of Sept. 11, 2001.The Role of the Public in Nomad Eyes as a Preventive ForceThe Nomad Eyes model has been compared to the function of the compound eye in aninsect visual system. Each data collector is very low quality in performance compared tothe mammalian or avian eye. However, taken together, the resulting array of sensorsyields a spatially and temporally associable set of data points that actually is not availablein the more sophisticated visual systems because of the number of orientations possible.This gives certain advantages to the insect eye, notably evident in the avoidance ofobstacles by some insects while flying at high speed. Nomad Eyes aims to have as manycollectors distributed throughout a community as possible, and to do so with a minimumof cost or maintenance. By doing so, the compound-eye effect can be achieved throughI3BAT. Furthermore, as a force of deterrence, when the terrorist forces do not knowwhere there may be data collectors and observations, because it is no longer a matter ofdiscrete and predictable sensors at airports, gates, or in the hands of uniformed police andsecurity guards, but potentially a sensor-equipped mobile phone in the hands of theperson next in line or across the hall or bar, then not only is the potential for earlydetection and disruption increased but also the entire planning system and clandestineoperational scheme of the terrorist is disrupted. Their work becomes more difficult, andthat is part of the strategy for weakening their enterprise.How can this be achieved in a practical sense? By employing large numbers of ordinarypublic users, focusing upon the incorporation of mobile phones that are already in use,connected and maintained.In order to gather the active participation of thousands and even tens of thousands ofpeople, there is a different psychology that must be employed, and for this reason NomadEyes is engaged in developing a method to make participation interesting through games,advertising, and in general entertainment. Work by Klopfer, Jenkins and others at MIThas already demonstrated the feasibility of using cell phones in a variety of educationaland socially-meaningful games[6,7]. Nomad Eyes for the public sector is based upon thepremise that increasing numbers of consumers are purchasing and using high-end mobiledevices for entertainment, gaming, internet access and non-traditional phonecommunications, primarily visual in nature. Games such as those being developed inacademia and industry plus commercial advertising can be used to engage a sufficientnumber of the public to participate productively in Nomad Eyes without the large numberof such participants feeling like it is a dull or boring task, and with the use of plug-insensors such as radiation monitors that can be "piggybacked" onto the mobile phone, theactive engagement of the human user is minimized. 5
  • Intl Conf on Radiation Terrorism, RTC, 10/2004 M. DudziakNomad Eyes for First Responders and the Public in Post-Terrakt RecoveryNomad Eyes is designed to assist also in the manner in which most RDD activity hasbeen focused to date - having an improved response system for dealing with an RDDterrakt. Given a network that extends into the general public for data collection in thebroad community, coupled with GPS locator functions enabled in many cellularnetworks, and even without such the availability of clear and legible maps throughcurrent mobile phone high-res graphics, large numbers of people can be more easilynotified and routed to safety. Going back to figure 1, the basic capability is illustrated.Sensors and data collectors including radiation monitors are assumed to be dispersedpseudo-randomly throughout a location of a terrakt incidence, and with additionalresources available from the actual first-responder teams.This data, routed into the Nomad Eyes servers, then is processed to generate broadcasts tothe users of mobile phones in the public (commercial) networks, and to the mobileautonomous devices that are deployed in the area of concern. The simple fact is thatmore people can be notified faster and with more intelligent and timely information thanby any other means. Those without mobile devices will gather information from thosearound them who are thus equipped. The end result is more people moving in betterdirections and means away from the area of radiation (or other substance) hazard, and acontinuous stream of additional monitoring and sensing data coming from those people asthey move and egress from the danger zones.There are obvious dependencies for the success of the public elements of Nomad Eyes,but they are minimized by design - wherever possible, the objective is to not require thegeneral user to do anything other than carry their mobile wireless device and to make theoperation of that as seamless, hassle-free, and ubiquitous as possible. nomad eyes treatsthe problem of public response as well as information gathering for RDD and other typesof terrorism with a combination of advanced analytical methods on the back-end, in theservers and databases receiving and administering information, basing this in great partupon inverse problem methods, Bayesian probabilistic reasoning and graph theory, withold-fashioned consumerism and advertising. Only in this case the bonus and the prizeinclude a positive reward of being able to rest perhaps a little easier about how we live.Current StatusCurrently the Nomad Eyes project has progressed to the stage of detailed design andprototyping using a methodology of rapid application prototype derived from XP8 andOOD9 practices in the semiconductor and software industries. There are four stages tothe work at present:Sensor ConfigurationsRefinement of MIPI-compliant low-power compact-size plug-ins adaptable to a wideclass of consumer mobile phones and also for specialized non-consumer devices8 eXtreme Programming, a system for flexible, adaptive small-team design of intensive time-constrainedtasks9 Object Oriented Design (more widely known as OOP - Object Oriented Programming) 6
  • Intl Conf on Radiation Terrorism, RTC, 10/2004 M. DudziakConsumer Human Factors and EngagementDesign of educational and entertaining games for use on mobile and internet-accessiblePDAs that cultivate the awareness, observation, and communication of counterterrorist-useful information through SMS, image, and voice to the Nomad Eyes acquisitionservers.I3BATModeling of terrorist planning and behavior for the construction of dynamic computingmodels that can be used alongside other models for identifying potential terraktcampaigns and neutralizing the threats.Nomad Eyes Network and DatabaseSoftware development for the ADaM ETL processing and the bidirectionalcommunications with large arrays of mobile units, including the broadcast of appropriateevacuation map and route information to mobile phone users directly in the Nomad eyesnetwork and also those in the general commercial networks as well through theirproviders.References[1] Zimmerman, Peter and Loeb, Cheryl, "Dirty Bombs: The Threat Revisited," NationalDefense University, Defense, vol. 38, Jan. 2004, available online athttp://www.ndu.edu/ctnsp/DH38.pdf[2] Singer, Fred (Emeritus Professor, Univ. of Virginia and Visiting Fellow, HooverInstitute (Stanford Univ.), available online at http://www.againstbombing.com/singer.htm[3] cf proceedings and reports from the conference Dirty Bombs II: Current Concepts inRadiation terror Preparedness and Response, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health,Baltimore, MD, April 2004[4] Department of Homeland Security Working Group on Radiological Dispersal Device(RDD) Preparedness, Medical Preparedness and Response Sub-Group[5] Product Stewardship Institute, Univ. of Massachusetts at Lowell, "RadioactiveMaterials Product Stewardship," June, 2003, available online athttp://www.productstewardship.us/supportingdocs/RadMat_BkgrdRpt.doc[6] MIT Comparative Media Studies Program (Henry Jenkins III, http://web.mit.edu/cms)and MIT Teacher Education Program (Eric Klopfer, http://education.mit.edu)[7] O’Driscoll, Alice, Tan, Philip, Targum, Elliot, Squire, Kurt and Miller, Heather,"On the Border of Life,", MIT Comparative Media Studies Dept, 11/02 7