Foreclosures in California

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California foreclosure expert Steve Dexter previews his April 5th 2008 seminar on foreclosures. To register for the seminar please visit www.womensinvestclub.com. Learn more about Steve Dexter at www.california-foreclosure-expert.com

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  • After the sugar-high of the mortgage world fades, an estimated 2.2 million households will likely hurl home ownership in the nest 4 years , according to the Center for Responsible Lending's "Losing Ground: Foreclosures in the Subprime Market and Their Cost to Homeowners" 1.1 Million according to the MBA Tonight, we are going to talk about The Subprime Contagion Affect The People and the Areas most likely to get hit How this affect will play out from the lenders into the markets What lenders, builders and realtors are most likely to get hit ---the present state of the real estate markets is and where it is likely to go How the Subprime contagion effect will effect the real estate industry and the larger US economy To homeowners in trouble---How to talk to the people in loss mitigation if you are in foreclosure To investors seeking to profit----How to talk to the REO departments
  • Foreclosures in California

    1. 1. Foreclosures in California How Much, How Many and How Quick Will They Come?
    2. 4. Stocks Down Recession Likely?
    3. 5. Fed Moves to Ease Short Term Federal Funds Rate
    4. 7. A Unique Storm is Gathering National Appreciation Rate Negative for the First Time since the Great Depression
    5. 8. Estimated Price Declines
    6. 9. Orange County Trends <ul><li>Slice Price Vs. ‘06 Sales Vs. ‘06 </li></ul><ul><li>House $634,000 -3.9% 1,053 -46.6% </li></ul><ul><li>Condo $408,750 -6.0% 386 -48.6% </li></ul><ul><li>New* $667,500 -7.9% 361 -27.4% </li></ul><ul><li>All $580,000 -7.0% 1,800 -44.1% </li></ul>
    7. 10. Lenders Tightening
    8. 11. Most Common Loans Today <ul><li>FHA 3%-5% Down Owner Occupied </li></ul><ul><li>Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac-Full Doc 30 Year Fixed 5.25%-5.5%, 15 Year Fixed 5.0% </li></ul><ul><li>Stated Income (4506 Required) for Self-Employed </li></ul><ul><li>10 Properties Max (Some Exceptions) </li></ul><ul><li>Wide Disparity of Jumbo Lenders </li></ul><ul><li>(compensating factors apply) </li></ul>
    9. 12. Americans Saving Less
    10. 13. Will Main Street Drag Wall Street Down?
    11. 14. GDP Weakening to 2.0% ?
    12. 15. Foreigners to the Rescue ? <ul><li>Merrill Lynch 4.4 Billion Singapore Holdings </li></ul><ul><li>Morgan Stanley 5 Billion China Investment </li></ul><ul><li>Citigroup 7.5 Billion Abu-Dhabi Inv. </li></ul><ul><li>Citigroup 2 Billion Saudi Arabia/China </li></ul><ul><li>Source: Wall Street Journal </li></ul>
    13. 17. Dollar Losing Value Inflation Pressures Building
    14. 18. Inflation Raises Its Ugly Head
    15. 19. The World is Inflating, Too
    16. 20. Two Thirds of the American Economy is Based on Consumer Spending
    17. 21. Foreclosure Rates for Top 100 Metro Areas Rate Rank MSA Foreclosure Filings 1 filing for every #HH %Δ from First Half 2006 1 Stockton, CA 8,169 27 256 2 Detroit/Livonia/Dearborn, MI 28,705 29 99 3 Las Vegas/Paradise, NV 22,928 31 142 4 Riverside/San Bernardino, CA 41,351 33 198 5 Sacramento, CA 20,516 36 241 6 Denver/Aurora, CO 23,842 42 11 7 Miami, FL 20,275 46 74 8 Bakersfield, CA 5,365 47 222 9 Memphis, TN 10,800 49 17 10 Cleveland/Lorain/Elyria/Mentor, OH 18,844 50 106 11 Fort Lauderdale, FL 15,720 50 72 12 Atlanta/Sandy Springs/Marietta, GA 36,502 54 17 13 Fort Worth/Arlington, TX 13,221 57 -10 14 Fresno, CA 4,867 60 183 15 Indianapolis, IN 11,677 62 -6
    18. 25. Frankenstein Loans Adjusting to Monster Payments
    19. 26. Southern California Trustee Sales Explode as a Percentage of Defaults (Dataquick) <ul><li>County/Region 2006Q3 2007Q3 %Chg </li></ul><ul><li>Los Angeles 5,565 13,583 144.1% </li></ul><ul><li>Orange 1,500 3,882 158.8% </li></ul><ul><li>San Diego 2,355 5,673 140.9% </li></ul><ul><li>Riverside 3,040 9,250 204.3% </li></ul><ul><li>San Bernardino 2,548 7,038 176.2% </li></ul><ul><li>Ventura 578 1,377 138.2% </li></ul><ul><li>SoCal* 15,676 41,062 161.9% </li></ul><ul><li>County/Region 2006Q3 2007Q3 %Chg </li></ul><ul><li>LOS ANGELES 535 3,627 577.9% </li></ul><ul><li>ORANGE 179 1,280 615.1% </li></ul><ul><li>SAN DIEGO 453 2,157 376.2% </li></ul><ul><li>RIVERSIDE 478 3,462 624.3% </li></ul><ul><li>SAN BERNR 232 2,255 872.0% </li></ul><ul><li>VENTURA 77 454 489.6% </li></ul><ul><li>SOCAL TOTAL* 1,960 13,314 579.3 % </li></ul>
    20. 27. National Rent to Price Ratio Out of Equilibrium
    21. 28. Market Sub-prime Share Market Sub-prime Share All Metros 19% Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 28% Stockton-Lodi, CA 41% Mansfield, OH 27% Modesto, CA 41% Sacramento, CA 27% Richmond-Petersburg, VA 41% Jackson, TN 26% Merced, CA 41% Lansing-East Lansing, MI 26% Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 36% Detroit, MI 26% Bakersfield, CA 36% Oakland, CA 26% Vallejo-Fairfield-Napa, CA 35% New Bedford, MA 25% Brockton, MA 33% Providence-Warwick, RI-MA 25% Fresno, CA 32% Terre Haute, IN 25% Jackson, MI 31% Pine Bluff, AR 25% Fort Lauderdale, FL 31% Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ 25% Flint, MI 30% Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie, FL 25% Salinas, CA 30% Cumberland, MD-WV 24% McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 29% Redding, CA 24% Pueblo, CO 29% Phoenix-Mesa, AZ 24% Yuba City, CA 29% Sharon, PA 24% Laredo, TX 28% St. Joseph, MO 24% Steubenville-Weirton, OH-WV 28% Las Vegas, NV-AZ 24%
    22. 30. Where the Sub-primes Are
    23. 31. Sub-primes ARMS Peak Option ARMS Peak 2011 2008
    24. 32. REOS Who’s Got Them and Who’s Got the Most Bank 4-20-07 1-10-07 Percentage Increase Fannie Mae 107 784 632% Freddie Mac 66 420 536% Horizon 240 1005 318 % REO Source 142 594 318% Bank of America 13 136 946% Countrywide 1,208 4051 235% Downey 45 332 637% Indy Mac 52 575 1005% Ocwen 301 1298 331% Wilshire 440 840 91% Wells Fargo 1,780 4485 151% HUD 11 11 0.0 % VA 18 14 -22 % World/Wachovia (SOCAL) 23 94 357%
    25. 33. Anatomy of a Mortgage Backed Security (MBS)
    26. 34. 2006 Proves to Be the Weakest Underwriting Guidelines in History
    27. 35. 679 Billion in Subprime Securities Issued Last Year <ul><li>2006 Vintage (weakest ever) 1 out of 5 will default (20%) </li></ul><ul><li>135.8 Billion in Bad Loans </li></ul><ul><li>27.2 Billion is California’s Share of Bad Loans </li></ul><ul><li>Average California Loan Amount is $350,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Subprime Loans that will Default Just from Loans Written in 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>77,714 REOs </li></ul><ul><li>Coming to California </li></ul>
    28. 36. Countrywide’s (Bank of America) California Portfolio <ul><li>1.5 Trillion Total Servicing Portfolio </li></ul><ul><li>106.5 Billion at Least 30 Days Late (6.9%) </li></ul><ul><li>19.1 Billion is California’s share of Late Pays (18%) </li></ul><ul><li>$400,000 Average Loan Amount </li></ul><ul><li>If All Those Loans Become a Bank Foreclosure </li></ul><ul><li>(not brought current, not modified, not a short sale) </li></ul><ul><li>47,925 </li></ul><ul><li>Countrywide </li></ul><ul><li>REOs Coming to California </li></ul>
    29. 37. Signs of Spring
    30. 38. Consumer Spending Slowing, Exports Getting Stronger
    31. 39. Exports Up, Imports Down Port of Long Beach Imports Down Exports Hit Record in 2007 <ul><li>7.31 Million Shipping Containers Processed (20 foot equivalent container units) </li></ul><ul><li>1.5 Million Outgoing Containers Processed- </li></ul><ul><li>An Increase of 22 Percent ! </li></ul><ul><li>Incoming Containers Down 10.6% </li></ul><ul><li>Source: www.portoflongbeach.com </li></ul>
    32. 41. Real Wages Up
    33. 42. Demographics is Destiny
    34. 43. Population Trends 2000-2006
    35. 45. Market Month of Market Peak 10 Year Appreciation Prior to Peak Months into Downturn (as of July 07) % Decline from Peak (as of July 07)           Los Angeles Sep-06 267% 10 -4.8% San Diego Nov-05 251% 21 -8.3% San Francisco May-06 223% 14 -4.5% Miami Dec-06 219% 8 -7.3% Washington May-06 182% 14 -7.6% Phoenix, Ariz. Jun-06 179% 13 -7.3% Tampa, Fla. Jul-06 171% 12 -8.8% New York Jun-06 170% 13 -4.0% Las Vegas Aug-06 161% 11 -6.3% Boston Sep-05 158% 22 -5.8% Seattle, Wash. --- 135% --- --- Minneapolis, Minn. Sep-06 117% 10 -3.7% Portland, Ore. --- 100% --- --- Chicago Sep-06 96% 10 -1.5% Denver Aug-06 89% 11 -0.7% Detroit, Mich. Dec-05 72% 20 -12.4% Atlanta, Ga. --- 59% --- --- Charlotte, N.C. --- 48% --- --- Cleveland, Ohio Jul-06 41% 12 -3.6% Dallas, Texas* --- 26% --- ---    *Dallas index compiled only since January 2000     Source: S&P Case Shiller National Price indices    
    36. 46. Silver Lake, CA <ul><li>1990 $327,500 </li></ul><ul><li>1995 $280,000 (23.6 %) </li></ul><ul><li>2000 $399,000 70.1 % </li></ul><ul><li>2006 $872,500 118 % </li></ul><ul><li>2007 $887,750 1.7 % </li></ul><ul><li>2012 $678,250 (23.6 %) </li></ul><ul><li>2017 $1,153,700 70.1% </li></ul><ul><li>2024 $2,534,700 119.7% </li></ul>
    37. 47. Landlord’s Outlook 2008 (Location is Key) Source: US Census Bureau <ul><li>The Census study says vacancy rate is: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>12.1% in the South </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>11.6% in the Midwest </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>7.1% in the East </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>6.8% in the West </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>This means you are almost twice as likely of having an empty house if your rent house is not in the West or the East. </li></ul></ul>
    38. 48. Landlord’s Outlook 2008 (cont) Top 10 Rental Appreciation Cities (Realfacts.com ) <ul><li>San Jose 11% </li></ul><ul><li>Seattle 9.9% </li></ul><ul><li>Portland 7.2% </li></ul><ul><li>San Francisco 7.1% </li></ul><ul><li>Austin 5.4% </li></ul><ul><li>Fresno 5.4% </li></ul><ul><li>Los Angeles 6.8% </li></ul><ul><li>Oxnard-Thousand Oaks 7.2% </li></ul><ul><li>Salt Lake City 6.8% </li></ul><ul><li>San Diego 5.5%. </li></ul>
    39. 49. Strategies for the Five Stages <ul><li>Stage 1: The Bottom </li></ul><ul><li>Stage 2: The Beginning </li></ul><ul><li>Stage 3: Nearing the Peak </li></ul><ul><li>Stage 4: The Early Decline </li></ul><ul><li>Stage 5: The Steep Decline </li></ul>
    40. 50. Stage 5 The Early Decline <ul><li>Properties bought for cash will be deeply discounted. </li></ul><ul><li>Banks are notoriously inefficient in disposing of their inventory. Exploit those inefficiencies. Many properties are left unfinished by foreclosed homeowners in the middle of a rehab. Contractors get an additional 10%-20% discount </li></ul><ul><li>At REO auctions, try to take the cream properties in AA neighborhoods for long term holds while wholesaling the ‘B’ and ‘C’ grade properties to investors or retail buyers </li></ul><ul><li>Home builders should build homes for troubled banks or finish the ones left unfinished </li></ul><ul><li>If you have too much debt, take your lumps. Your credit report will not be the only one marked up with late pays or foreclosures </li></ul>
    41. 51. Ten Signs the Market Bottom Has Passed <ul><li>Monthly sales volume is increasing </li></ul><ul><li>More first time homebuyers entering the market </li></ul><ul><li>Still a lot of nay-sayers saying prices will go down further </li></ul><ul><li>Recovery is “patchy” -- not all areas recovering at the same time </li></ul><ul><li>Monthly foreclosure rate declining </li></ul>
    42. 52. Ten Signs the Market Bottom Has Passed <ul><li>Sideways price trend -- “choppy” and hard to discern direction </li></ul><ul><li>Listings times decrease </li></ul><ul><li>More in-migration from out-of-state </li></ul><ul><li>Surrounding states home prices rising </li></ul><ul><li>Most people have given up on real estate </li></ul>
    43. 53. Websites <ul><li>BANK OF AMERICA FORECLOSURES One of the largest lenders in the US, you can search for residential or commercial. </li></ul><ul><li>CITIMORTGAGE REO One of the largest servicers in the ccountry </li></ul><ul><li>COUNTRYWIDE FORECLOSURES The largest independent home loan originator, they have property though out the United States. INDYMAC Many states listed </li></ul><ul><li>OCWEN Large buyer/servicer of non-performing and government loans. </li></ul><ul><li>WELLS FARGO’S PREMIER ASSET SERVICES One of the largest bank loan originators, they have property though out the United States. </li></ul>
    44. 54. “ How to Profit from the Rising Wave of Bank Foreclosures” <ul><li>Learn How to Cash-in Through Buying from Lenders in Distress </li></ul><ul><li>Saturday </li></ul><ul><li>April 5 th , 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Holiday Inn Long Beach Airport </li></ul><ul><li>2640 N Lakewood Blvd </li></ul><ul><li>Long Beach, CA 90815 </li></ul><ul><li>(562) 597-4401 </li></ul><ul><li>Early Bird Tuition Discount-Register NOW </li></ul>Author of the Top Rated Real Estate Book of the Year, Steve Dexter brings you a brand new seminar
    45. 55. In this Information-Packed Seminar You Will Learn How to: <ul><li>Know the the 5 Insider Secrets to finding foreclosures Ahead of the Pack </li></ul><ul><li>Discern the Five Factors that determine the bank’s willingness to sell </li></ul><ul><li>Uncover the two tremendous ways you can profit from buying from the bank </li></ul>
    46. 56. In this Information-Packed Seminar You Will Learn How to: <ul><li>Buy at the ideal time of the cycle </li></ul><ul><li>Find out the 7 best reasons to buy Bank REOs </li></ul><ul><li>Profit by finding out where the bank made all those bad loans </li></ul><ul><li>Learn which REOs you should buy and avoid </li></ul>
    47. 57. In this Information-Packed Seminar You Will Learn How to: <ul><li>Get ahead by knowing why this REO boom will last longer than you think </li></ul><ul><li>Benefit from learning how Wall Street will dictate what you buy </li></ul><ul><li>Avoid negative cash flow </li></ul>
    48. 58. In this Information-Packed Seminar You Will Learn How to: <ul><li>Discover 10 ways to find bank foreclosures within an hour’s drive of your home </li></ul><ul><li>Find out how pros buy WAY below market value </li></ul><ul><li>Find out the perfect time to buy </li></ul>
    49. 59. Why people Came “ How to Profit from the Coming Wave of Bank Foreclosures ” <ul><li>A spectacular seminar... a day very well spent. Steve over-delivered for the price with high-quality content, good sequencing and great info. Well done, Mr. Dexter! </li></ul><ul><li>Mike Cantu </li></ul><ul><li>Excellent! The amount of information was tremendous, much more than I anticipated I appreciate Steve’s commitment to put on such a well done event. </li></ul><ul><li>Tony Alvarez </li></ul><ul><li>Great job, Steve! Chris Carlson </li></ul><ul><li>I was inspired . I want to get into this window of opportunity. Great info! Brian Kelly </li></ul><ul><li>The handouts were fantastic! Janine Cicirone </li></ul><ul><li>Great insight into the California market and how to capitalize on this great boom in bank foreclosures! Marty Dowling </li></ul><ul><li>Steve gave us a detailed overview with many specific “how to’s”. He can see the future </li></ul><ul><li>Torin Roher </li></ul><ul><li>All his info was well researched and was backed by statistics. I look forward to his newsletter and his mentor program Scott Wiseman </li></ul><ul><li>I think the instructor is sexy </li></ul><ul><li>Susan Robinson, wife </li></ul>
    50. 60. “ How to Profit from the Rising Wave of Bank Foreclosures” <ul><li>Learn How to Cash-in Through Buying from Lenders in Distress </li></ul><ul><li>Saturday </li></ul><ul><li>April 5 th , 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Holiday Inn Long Beach Airport </li></ul><ul><li>2640 N Lakewood Blvd </li></ul><ul><li>Long Beach, CA 90815 </li></ul><ul><li>(562) 597-4401 </li></ul><ul><li>Early Bird Tuition Discount-$299.00 Register NOW </li></ul>Author of the Top Rated Real Estate Book of the Year, Steve Dexter brings you a brand new seminar
    51. 61. Goal Setting Session “Create the Blueprint for the Rest of Your Life” <ul><li>Create The Ultimate Scenario in every area of your life! </li></ul><ul><li>Devise practical ways on how get what you want! </li></ul><ul><li>In this highly interactive workshop, you will learn how to: </li></ul><ul><li>Create a vibrate, compelling picture of a life without limits </li></ul><ul><li>Find out what risks and obstacles that are in the way </li></ul><ul><li>Identify the potential solutions to overcome what’s stopping you </li></ul><ul><li>Attract a mastermind group that will help you achieve your goals </li></ul><ul><li>Acquire a timeline to keep you on track </li></ul><ul><li>Develop benchmarks to check your progress </li></ul><ul><li>Determine your primary tasks you need to get started </li></ul><ul><li>Activate your creative energies through “Mind Mapping” </li></ul><ul><li>Session One January 29th </li></ul><ul><li>What is an Ultimate Scenario? </li></ul><ul><li>How to Create the Ultimate Scenario </li></ul><ul><li>The Power of Why </li></ul><ul><li>Working with Your Ultimate Scenario </li></ul><ul><li>Session Two February 5th </li></ul><ul><li>What are the Risks and Obstacles </li></ul><ul><li>Brainstorming Potential Solutions </li></ul><ul><li>Creating a Mastermind Group </li></ul><ul><li>Writing Out a Project Timeline </li></ul><ul><li>Compiling a Primary Task List </li></ul>

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