Networks, plant health and biodiversity


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botanic gardens, meta-analysis, use of networks in ecology, conservation of biodiversity, species-people correlation, sudden oak death, Phytophthora ramorum, network epidemiology, geographical genetics, scale-dependence of the species-people correlation, invasion of plant pathogens, plant health and global change, sustainability,

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Networks, plant health and biodiversity

  1. 1. Networks, plant health and biodiversity Marco Pautasso FRB, Paris, 28 April 2011
  2. 2. Living collections of the world’s botanical gardens (c)(a) (c) log10 spp richness (n) (d) (yr) (b) (d)from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica
  3. 3. Living collections of the world’s botanic gardens (2)from: Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany
  4. 4. Global biodiversity patterns: vascular plantsfrom Barthlott et al. (2007) Erdkunde
  5. 5. Bird abundance surveys with indication of plot area abundance (individuals) (c) Log10 assemblage Log10 plot area (km2)Log10 plot area (km2) Survey year from: Pautasso & Gaston (2005, 2006) Ecology Letters and Global Ecology & Biogeography
  6. 6. Some recent studies of the spp-people correlation Araujo (2003) McKinney GEB (2003) Moreno- Biol Cons Rueda & Ding et al. Pizarro (2008) (2006) J Ecol Res Vazquez Hunter Biogeog & Gaston (2006) & Jonzon Biodiv & Cons (1993) CB Balmford et al. (2001) Science Real et al. Chown et al. Luck (2007) (2003) J Diniz-Filho et al. (2003) Ecol Appl J Biogeog Biogeog (2006) Acta OecolWorld wilderness map from: UNEP-WCMC World Atlas of Biodiversity, GIS analysisby R. Lesslie (ANU), method developed for the Australian Heritage Commission
  7. 7. Random sample of 100 papers per year on ‘species richness’ in WOS (1991-2004)from: Lonsdale et al. (2008) European Journal of Forest Research
  8. 8. A positive species-people correlation for vascular plants in US counties 4 log10 vascular plant spp richness (n) 2 n = 2877, r = 0.18, y = 1.75+ 0.22x, p < 0.0001 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 log10 human population size (n)Data from the Synthesis of the North American Flora
  9. 9. Locally, the spp-people correlation tends to be negative birds in Florencefrom: Chiari et al. (2010) Journal of Animal Ecology
  10. 10. Does sampling bias explain the positive regional species-people correlation?from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
  11. 11. US counties with (•) or without (o) Universities and/or Botanical Gardens • N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001 o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
  12. 12. Plant (and botanist) movements in a globalized world passengersFrom: Hufnagel et al. (2005) PNAS (air) & Kaluza et al. (2010) Interface (sea)
  13. 13. Some recent applications of network theoryNetwork pictures from: NATURALNewman (2003)SIAM Review food webs cell metabolism neural Food web of Little Rock networks Lake, Wisconsin, US ant nests sexual partnerships DISEASE SPREAD family innovation networksInternet flows co-authorship HIVstructure railway urban road nets spread electrical networks networks network power grids telephone calls WWW computing airport Internet E-mail committees grids networks software maps patternsTECHNOLOGICAL SOCIALfrom: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology
  14. 14. Examples of invasions of plant pathogensFrom Brown & Hovmøller (2002) Science
  15. 15. PhytophthoraMap from ramorum in the Kelly, UC-Berkeley US: forest outbreaks vs. national risk Hazard map from Koch & Smith (2007) III SOD Science Symposium
  16. 16. from: McKelvey, Koch & Smith (2008) SOD Science Symposium III
  17. 17. Importance of trace-forward data in networks of plant movements Trace forward/back zipcode Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site Hold releasedSource: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine
  18. 18. Multi-scale correlation of human presence and Phytophthora ramorum disease incidencefrom: Cushman & Meentemeyer (2008) Journal of Ecology
  19. 19. Sudden Oak Death in Sudden Larch Death California in SW-Englandfrom Brasier & Webber (2010) Nature
  20. 20. Phytophthora ramorum in England & WalesSource: Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK
  21. 21. Network of co-occurrences at infected sites (England & Wales, 2003-2005) of plant genera susceptible to Phytophthora ramorum from: Pautasso et al. (2008) Proceedings of the 3rd SOD Science Symposium
  22. 22. A very short overview of network theoryMinor and Urban (2008) Conservation Biology
  23. 23. Different types of networkslocal small-world random scale-free modified from: Keeling & Eames (2005) Interface
  24. 24. Degree distribution of nodes in a scale-free network based on a reconstruction of the UK foot-and mouth disease network. Fitted line: y= 118.5x -1.6, R2 = 0.87 from: Shirley & Rushton (2005) Epidemiology & Infection
  25. 25. Clustering vs. path length local small-world randomclustering path length local small-world random modified from: Roy & Pascual (2006) Ecological Complexity
  26. 26. Biodiversity conservation at the interface between disciplines Kiss et al. (2010) Journal of Informetrics
  27. 27. Simple model of spread and establishment in a network pt probability of transmission pp probability of persistence node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 … 100 step 1 step 2 step 3 … step nfrom: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology
  28. 28. Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks with positive correlation between in- and out-degree 1.00 localprobability of persistence random 0.75 small-world scale-free (two-way) scale-free (uncorrelated) 0.50 scale-free (one way) 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Epidemic probability of transmission does not develop Epidemic develops from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology
  29. 29. Lower epidemic threshold for two-way scale-free networks (unless networks are sparsely connected) N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) Journal of Theoretical Biology
  30. 30. Correlation of epidemic final size with out-degree of starting node increases with network connectivityfrom: Pautassoet al. (2010) N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.;EcologicalComplexity different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05
  31. 31. Proportion of producers/ wholesalers/ retailers in networks depending on: a) category definition, b) network structure and c) connectanceN replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev. from: Pautasso et al. (2010)Journal of Applied Ecology
  32. 32. Correlation between proportion of producers (wholesalers) and correlation between links in and out of nodesfrom: Pautasso et al. Journal of Applied Ecology (2010) N replicates = 100
  33. 33. Plant health and stakeholder engagementMacLeod et al. (2010) Food Security
  34. 34. Plant health policy/governance quadrangle e anc e rn g ov values economists policy makers prioritisation consultation/ is engagement l ys na im a pa k ris ct s risk perception experts publicsFrom Mills et al. (in press) Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B
  35. 35. Human inequality and biodiversity threatfrom Holland et al. (2009) Conservation Biology
  36. 36. International horticultural networks (European trade in ornamental plants)Dehnen-Schmutz et al. (2010) Scientia Horticulturae
  37. 37. Nurseries as hubs Brenn et al. (2008) Mycological Research
  38. 38. Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees Pinus pinea from Vendramin et al. (2008) Evolution
  39. 39. Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest treesTaxus wallichiana from Gao et al. (2007) Molecular Ecology
  40. 40. Acknowledgements Diego Kevin Fontaneto, Gaston,Mike McKinney, Stockholm Sheffield IngridKnoxville Susanne Fritz, Parmentier, Copenhagen BruxellesPeterWeisberg, Glen Powell, Mathieu London Moslonka- Mike Jeger, Caroline LorenzoReno Pecher, Lefebvre, Paris Silwood Marini, Bozen PadovaOttmar Alessandro Birgit & Florian Schlick- TomHoldenrieder, Claude Steck, Chiarucci, Harwood,Zurich Birmensdorf Steiner, Innsbruck Siena Canberra
  41. 41. ReferencesBarbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Positive regional species–people correlations: a samplingartefact or a key issue for sustainable development? Animal Conservation 13: 446-447Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticulturalindustry: some implications for plant health. Scientia Horticulturae 125: 1-15Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richnesspatterns of the living collections of the worlds botanic gardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105:689-696Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemicthreshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O &Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents.Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology,Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M & McKinney ML (2007) The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area and humanpopulation size in the US. Conservation Biology 21, 5: 1333-1340Pautasso M & Parmentier I (2007) Are the living collections of the world’s botanical gardens following species-richnesspatterns observed in natural ecosystems? Botanica Helvetica 117: 15-28Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictorof epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-sizedirected trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309