Networks, plant health and biodiversity
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Networks, plant health and biodiversity

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botanic gardens, meta-analysis, use of networks in ecology, conservation of biodiversity, species-people correlation, sudden oak death, Phytophthora ramorum, network epidemiology, geographical ...

botanic gardens, meta-analysis, use of networks in ecology, conservation of biodiversity, species-people correlation, sudden oak death, Phytophthora ramorum, network epidemiology, geographical genetics, scale-dependence of the species-people correlation, invasion of plant pathogens, plant health and global change, sustainability,

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Networks, plant health and biodiversity Networks, plant health and biodiversity Presentation Transcript

  • Networks, plant health and biodiversity Marco Pautasso FRB, Paris, 28 April 2011
  • Living collections of the world’s botanical gardens (c)(a) (c) log10 spp richness (n) (d) (yr) (b) (d)from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica
  • Living collections of the world’s botanic gardens (2)from: Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany
  • Global biodiversity patterns: vascular plantsfrom Barthlott et al. (2007) Erdkunde
  • Bird abundance surveys with indication of plot area abundance (individuals) (c) Log10 assemblage Log10 plot area (km2)Log10 plot area (km2) Survey year from: Pautasso & Gaston (2005, 2006) Ecology Letters and Global Ecology & Biogeography
  • Some recent studies of the spp-people correlation Araujo (2003) McKinney GEB (2003) Moreno- Biol Cons Rueda & Ding et al. Pizarro (2008) (2006) J Ecol Res Vazquez Hunter Biogeog & Gaston (2006) & Jonzon Biodiv & Cons (1993) CB Balmford et al. (2001) Science Real et al. Chown et al. Luck (2007) (2003) J Diniz-Filho et al. (2003) Ecol Appl J Biogeog Biogeog (2006) Acta OecolWorld wilderness map from: UNEP-WCMC World Atlas of Biodiversity, GIS analysisby R. Lesslie (ANU), method developed for the Australian Heritage Commission
  • Random sample of 100 papers per year on ‘species richness’ in WOS (1991-2004)from: Lonsdale et al. (2008) European Journal of Forest Research
  • A positive species-people correlation for vascular plants in US counties 4 log10 vascular plant spp richness (n) 2 n = 2877, r = 0.18, y = 1.75+ 0.22x, p < 0.0001 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 log10 human population size (n)Data from the Synthesis of the North American Flora
  • Locally, the spp-people correlation tends to be negative birds in Florencefrom: Chiari et al. (2010) Journal of Animal Ecology
  • Does sampling bias explain the positive regional species-people correlation?from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
  • US counties with (•) or without (o) Universities and/or Botanical Gardens • N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001 o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
  • Plant (and botanist) movements in a globalized world passengersFrom: Hufnagel et al. (2005) PNAS (air) & Kaluza et al. (2010) Interface (sea)
  • Some recent applications of network theoryNetwork pictures from: NATURALNewman (2003)SIAM Review food webs cell metabolism neural Food web of Little Rock networks Lake, Wisconsin, US ant nests sexual partnerships DISEASE SPREAD family innovation networksInternet flows co-authorship HIVstructure railway urban road nets spread electrical networks networks network power grids telephone calls WWW computing airport Internet E-mail committees grids networks software maps patternsTECHNOLOGICAL SOCIALfrom: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology
  • Examples of invasions of plant pathogensFrom Brown & Hovmøller (2002) Science
  • PhytophthoraMap from www.suddenoakdeath.org ramorum in the Kelly, UC-Berkeley US: forest outbreaks vs. national risk Hazard map from Koch & Smith (2007) III SOD Science Symposium
  • from: McKelvey, Koch & Smith (2008) SOD Science Symposium III
  • Importance of trace-forward data in networks of plant movements Trace forward/back zipcode Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site Hold releasedSource: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine
  • Multi-scale correlation of human presence and Phytophthora ramorum disease incidencefrom: Cushman & Meentemeyer (2008) Journal of Ecology
  • Sudden Oak Death in Sudden Larch Death California in SW-Englandfrom Brasier & Webber (2010) Nature
  • Phytophthora ramorum in England & WalesSource: Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK
  • Network of co-occurrences at infected sites (England & Wales, 2003-2005) of plant genera susceptible to Phytophthora ramorum from: Pautasso et al. (2008) Proceedings of the 3rd SOD Science Symposium
  • A very short overview of network theoryMinor and Urban (2008) Conservation Biology
  • Different types of networkslocal small-world random scale-free modified from: Keeling & Eames (2005) Interface
  • Degree distribution of nodes in a scale-free network based on a reconstruction of the UK foot-and mouth disease network. Fitted line: y= 118.5x -1.6, R2 = 0.87 from: Shirley & Rushton (2005) Epidemiology & Infection
  • Clustering vs. path length local small-world randomclustering path length local small-world random modified from: Roy & Pascual (2006) Ecological Complexity
  • Biodiversity conservation at the interface between disciplines Kiss et al. (2010) Journal of Informetrics
  • Simple model of spread and establishment in a network pt probability of transmission pp probability of persistence node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 … 100 step 1 step 2 step 3 … step nfrom: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology
  • Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks with positive correlation between in- and out-degree 1.00 localprobability of persistence random 0.75 small-world scale-free (two-way) scale-free (uncorrelated) 0.50 scale-free (one way) 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Epidemic probability of transmission does not develop Epidemic develops from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology
  • Lower epidemic threshold for two-way scale-free networks (unless networks are sparsely connected) N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) Journal of Theoretical Biology
  • Correlation of epidemic final size with out-degree of starting node increases with network connectivityfrom: Pautassoet al. (2010) N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.;EcologicalComplexity different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05
  • Proportion of producers/ wholesalers/ retailers in networks depending on: a) category definition, b) network structure and c) connectanceN replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev. from: Pautasso et al. (2010)Journal of Applied Ecology
  • Correlation between proportion of producers (wholesalers) and correlation between links in and out of nodesfrom: Pautasso et al. Journal of Applied Ecology (2010) N replicates = 100
  • Plant health and stakeholder engagementMacLeod et al. (2010) Food Security
  • Plant health policy/governance quadrangle e anc e rn g ov values economists policy makers prioritisation consultation/ is engagement l ys na im a pa k ris ct s risk perception experts publicsFrom Mills et al. (in press) Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B
  • Human inequality and biodiversity threatfrom Holland et al. (2009) Conservation Biology
  • International horticultural networks (European trade in ornamental plants)Dehnen-Schmutz et al. (2010) Scientia Horticulturae
  • Nurseries as hubs Brenn et al. (2008) Mycological Research
  • Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees Pinus pinea from Vendramin et al. (2008) Evolution
  • Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest treesTaxus wallichiana from Gao et al. (2007) Molecular Ecology
  • Acknowledgements Diego Kevin Fontaneto, Gaston,Mike McKinney, Stockholm Sheffield IngridKnoxville Susanne Fritz, Parmentier, Copenhagen BruxellesPeterWeisberg, Glen Powell, Mathieu London Moslonka- Mike Jeger, Caroline LorenzoReno Pecher, Lefebvre, Paris Silwood Marini, Bozen PadovaOttmar Alessandro Birgit & Florian Schlick- TomHoldenrieder, Claude Steck, Chiarucci, Harwood,Zurich Birmensdorf Steiner, Innsbruck Siena Canberra
  • ReferencesBarbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Positive regional species–people correlations: a samplingartefact or a key issue for sustainable development? Animal Conservation 13: 446-447Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticulturalindustry: some implications for plant health. Scientia Horticulturae 125: 1-15Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richnesspatterns of the living collections of the worlds botanic gardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105:689-696Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemicthreshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O &Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents.Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology,Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M & McKinney ML (2007) The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area and humanpopulation size in the US. Conservation Biology 21, 5: 1333-1340Pautasso M & Parmentier I (2007) Are the living collections of the world’s botanical gardens following species-richnesspatterns observed in natural ecosystems? Botanica Helvetica 117: 15-28Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictorof epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-sizedirected trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309