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The use of networks in the study of climate-related     vulnerabilities        Marco Pautasso,       Division of Biology, ...
Research             y        EmpiricalBiodiversity                  x                          Disease  z Theoretical    ...
Research interests - 1. Macroecology                                                                abundance (individuals...
Research interests - 2. Landscape pathologyPicture: D. Rizzo, UC Davis   Pautasso et al. (2010) Biological Reviews
Research interests - 3. Network epidemiology                                  NATURALNetwork pictures from:Newman (2003) S...
Current research – 1. epidemic modelling                 in small-size directed networks                                  ...
Current research -   2. fire blight epidemic development in Switzerland  2003-07  1995                                    ...
Current research – 3. biogeography of the(a)         living collections of the world’s botanical gardens                  ...
Acknowledgements                     Ingrid Parmentier,Peter Weisberg,       Univ. of Brussels,Univ. of Nevada,          B...
US counties with (•) or without (o)            Universities and/or Botanical Gardens                 • N = 692, r2 = 0.13,...
European trade flows in ornamental plants (2004)Dehnen-Schmutz et al. (2010) Scientia Horticulturae
Simple model of infection spread (e.g. P. ramorum) in a network                          pt probability of infection trans...
Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks                      with positive correlation between in- and out-degree...
Living collections of the world’s botanic gardens (2)from: Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany
ReferencesDehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultu...
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The use of networks in the study of climate-related vulnerabilities

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Research interests: macroecology, landscape pathology and network epidemiology. Epidemiological modelling in small-size directed networks, landscape pathology of fire blight in Switzerland, biogeographic patterns in the living collections of the world's botanic gardens

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Transcript of "The use of networks in the study of climate-related vulnerabilities"

  1. 1. The use of networks in the study of climate-related vulnerabilities Marco Pautasso, Division of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park PIK Potsdam, 2 August 2010
  2. 2. Research y EmpiricalBiodiversity x Disease z Theoretical Review
  3. 3. Research interests - 1. Macroecology abundance (individuals) (c) Log10 assemblage Log10 plot area (km2)Log10 plot area (km2) Survey year (a), (b) & (c) from: Pautasso & Gaston (2006) Global Ecology & Biogeography; (d) from: Pautasso & Gaston (2005) Ecology Letters
  4. 4. Research interests - 2. Landscape pathologyPicture: D. Rizzo, UC Davis Pautasso et al. (2010) Biological Reviews
  5. 5. Research interests - 3. Network epidemiology NATURALNetwork pictures from:Newman (2003) SIAM Review food webs cell metabolism neural Food web of Little Rock networks Lake, Wisconsin, US ant nests sexual partnerships DISEASE SPREAD family innovation networksInternet flows co-authorship HIVstructure railway urban road nets spread electrical networks networks network power grids telephone calls WWW computing airport Internet E-mail committees grids networks software maps patternsTECHNOLOGICAL SOCIALModified from: Jeger et al. (2007) New Phytologist
  6. 6. Current research – 1. epidemic modelling in small-size directed networks N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) Journal of Theoretical Biology
  7. 7. Current research - 2. fire blight epidemic development in Switzerland 2003-07 1995 1999 2003 2007From: Eidgenössisches Volkswirtschaftsdepartement, Swiss Confederation
  8. 8. Current research – 3. biogeography of the(a) living collections of the world’s botanical gardens (c) (c) log10 spp richness (n) (d) (yr) (b) Size of countries reflects n of botanic gardens (d)b from: http://www.worldmapper.org/a, c & d: from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica
  9. 9. Acknowledgements Ingrid Parmentier,Peter Weisberg, Univ. of Brussels,Univ. of Nevada, Belgium Reno, USA Mike Jeger, Ottmar Mike Shaw, Imperial College, Univ. of Holdenrieder, Silwood ETHZ, CH Reading Kevin Gaston, Mike Univ. of McKinney, Sheffield Joan Webber, Univ. of Forest Research Mathieu Tennessee, Moslonka-Lefebvre, USA Agro-Paris Tech, France
  10. 10. US counties with (•) or without (o) Universities and/or Botanical Gardens • N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001 o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
  11. 11. European trade flows in ornamental plants (2004)Dehnen-Schmutz et al. (2010) Scientia Horticulturae
  12. 12. Simple model of infection spread (e.g. P. ramorum) in a network pt probability of infection transmission pp probability of infection persistence node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 … 100 step 1 step 2 step 3 … step nfrom: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (in review) Phytopathology
  13. 13. Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks with positive correlation between in- and out-degree 1.00 localprobability of persistence random 0.75 small-world scale-free (two-way) scale-free (uncorrelated) 0.50 scale-free (one way) 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Epidemic probability of transmission does not develop Epidemic develops modified from: Pautasso & Jeger (2008) Ecological Complexity
  14. 14. Living collections of the world’s botanic gardens (2)from: Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany
  15. 15. ReferencesDehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticulturalindustry: some implications for plant health. Scientia Horticulturae 125: 1-15Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richnesspatterns of the living collections of the worlds botanic gardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105:689-696Harwood TD, Xu XM, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Shaw M (2009) Epidemiological risk assessment using linked networkand grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and P. kernoviae in the UK. Ecological Modelling 220: 3353-3361MacLeod A, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Haines-Young R (2010) Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests andchallenges for future plant health. Food Security 2: 49-70Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemicthreshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O &Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents.Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology,Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Pietravalle S, Salama N, Jeger MJ, Lange E & Hehl-Lange S (2010)Plant health and global change – some implications for landscape management. Biological Reviews 85: 729-755Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictorof epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-sizedirected trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309Xu XM, Harwood TD, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen(Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales. Ecography 32: 504-516
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