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Species, people and networks

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An introduction to the species-people correlation, species, people and networks, ramorum leaf blight, sudden oak death, complex networks, network epidemiology, network theory, scale-free degree …

An introduction to the species-people correlation, species, people and networks, ramorum leaf blight, sudden oak death, complex networks, network epidemiology, network theory, scale-free degree distribution, epidemic threshold and final size, clustering coefficient, stream macro-invertebrates, Phytophthora ramorum, Sudden Oak Death

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  • 1. Species, people and networksMarco Pautasso 1 March 2010
  • 2. Some recent studies of the spp-people correlation Araujo (2003) McKinney GEB (2003) Moreno- Biol Cons Rueda & Ding et al. Pizarro (2008) (2006) J Ecol Res Vazquez Hunter Biogeog & Gaston (2006) & Jonzon Biodiv & Cons (1993) CB Balmford et al. (2001) Science Real et al. Chown et al. Luck (2007) (2003) J Diniz-Filho et al. (2003) Ecol Appl J Biogeog Biogeog (2006) Acta Oecol.World wilderness map from: UNEP-WCMC World Atlas of Biodiversity, GIS analysisby R. Lesslie (ANU), method developed for the Australian Heritage Commission
  • 3. A positive species-people correlation for vascular plants in US counties 4 log10 vascular plant spp richness (n) 2 n = 2877, r = 0.18, y = 1.75+ 0.22x, p < 0.0001 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 log10 human population size (n)Data from the Synthesis of the North American Flora, Ohio and Virginia not included
  • 4. 1. Sampling bias?from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
  • 5. US counties with (•) or without (o) Universities and/or Botanical Gardens • N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001 o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
  • 6. Plant (and botanist) movements in a globalized world passengersFrom: Hufnagel et al. (2005) PNAS (air) & Kaluza et al. (2010) Interface (sea)
  • 7. Epidemiology is just one of the many applications of network theoryNetwork pictures from: NATURALNewman (2003)SIAM Review food webs cell metabolism neural Food web of Little Rock networks Lake, Wisconsin, US ant nests sexual partnerships DISEASE SPREAD family innovation networksInternet flows co-authorship HIVstructure railway urban road nets spread electrical networks networks network power grids telephone calls WWW computing airport Internet E-mail committees grids networks software maps patternsTECHNOLOGICAL SOCIALmodified from: Jeger et al. (2007) New Phytologist
  • 8. Simple model of infection spread (e.g. P. ramorum) in a network pt probability of infection transmission pp probability of infection persistence node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 … 100 step 1 step 2 step 3 … step nfrom: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (in review) Phytopathology
  • 9. Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks with positive correlation between in- and out-degree 1.00 localprobability of persistence random 0.75 small-world scale-free (two-way) scale-free (uncorrelated) 0.50 scale-free (one way) 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Epidemic probability of transmission does not develop Epidemic develops modified from: Pautasso & Jeger (2008) Ecological Complexity
  • 10. Lower epidemic threshold for two-way scale-free networks (unless networks are sparsely connected) N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) JTB
  • 11. Correlation of epidemic final size with out-degree of starting node increases with network connectivityfrom: Pautassoet al. (2010) N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.;Ecol Compl different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05
  • 12. Multi-scale correlation of human presence and Phytophthora ramorum disease incidencefrom: Cushman & Meentemeyer (2008) Journal of Ecology
  • 13. Sudden Oak Death in Californiafrom Desprez-Loustau et al. (2007) Trends in Ecology & Evolution
  • 14. 2. Species introductions? Trace forward/back zipcode Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site Hold releasedSource: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine
  • 15. Spatial analysis of P. ramorum reported cases in England/Wales: garden/nurseries vs. semi-natural environment c: SNE - Garden/Nursery 04 - 05 f: Garden/Nursery - SNE 04 - 05 0.20 0.30 0.24 0.15 0.18 0.10 0.12 0.05 0.06 O12(r) values 0.00 0.00 d: SNE - Garden/Nursery 05 - 06 g: Garden/Nursery - SNE 05 - 06 0.20 0.4 0.15 0.3 0.10 0.2 0.05 0.1 0.00 0.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 Distance (km) Distance (km)from: Xu et al. (2009) Ecography
  • 16. from: Harwood et al. (2009) Ecological Modelling
  • 17. Ants and people in Europe (a) 3.0 2 y = -0.19 + 0.29x, s.s.e. = 0.03, r = 0.42, p < 0.0001 (c) 3.0 y = -1.00 + 0.87x, s.s.e. = 0.13, r2 = 0.56, p < 0.0001log10 ant species richness (n) log10 ant species richness (n) 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 log10 human population size (n) log10 plant species richness (n) (b) 3.0 (d) 3.0 2 y = 0.67 + 0.22x, s.s.e = 0.02, r = 0.30, p < 0.0001 y = 0.65 - 0.27x, s.s.e. = 0.64, r2 = 0.02, p = 0.67 log10 ant species richness (n) log10 ant species richness (n) 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 -4.6 -4.5 -4.4 -4.3 -4.2 log10 country area (km2) Boltzmann transformed temperature (1/kT) from Schlick-Steiner et al. (2008) Journal of Biogeography
  • 18. Living collections of the world’s botanical gardens (c)(a) (c) log10 spp richness (n) (d) (yr) (b) Size of countries reflects n of botanic gardens (d)b from: http://www.worldmapper.org/a, c & d: from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica
  • 19. Living collections of the world’s botanic gardens (2)from: Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany
  • 20. 3. Active conservation? Cupressus Quercus robur, Udine sempervirens, ForliCeltis australis, San Gimignano Castanea sativa, St. Alfio, Sicily people / km2Quercus cerris,Amatrice, Latium Photos of veteran trees courtesy of G. Bortolotti; Map of human population density from Swiss Federal Statistical Office no information
  • 21. Ancient trees in Italy’s regions and provinces(b) 3(a) (c) 2 (c) log10 veteran tree individuals log10 veteran tree species 2 1 1 2 2 y = -1.99 + 0.58x, r = 0.56, p < 0.0001 y = -1.70 + 0.47x, r = 0.69, p < 0.0001 0 0 4 5 6 7 8 4 5 6 7 8 log10 region human population size log10 region human population size(b)(b) (d) 2 2 2 (c) y = -2.98 + 0.68x, r = 0.13, p < 0.0001 2 y = -2.03 + 0.49x, r = 0.15, p < 0.0001log10 veteran tree individuals log10 veteran tree species 1 1 0 0 4 5 6 7 4 5 6 7 log 10 province human population size log10 province human population size a & b: abundance, c & d: spp richness, a & c: regions; b & d: provinces; from: Pautasso & Chiarucci (2008) Annals of Botany
  • 22. Birds, people and protected areas in Italy’s regionsfrom: Pautasso & Dinetti (2009) Environmental Conservation
  • 23. Macrofungi and human population in Italy’s regionsfrom: Pautasso & Zotti (2009) Biodiversity and Conservation
  • 24. Plant Health, Global Change and Landscape ManagementPautasso et al. (2010) Biological Reviews
  • 25. Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees Pinus pinea (Vendramin et al. (2008) Evolution)Pautasso (2009) Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution & Systematics
  • 26. Structural change in the international horticultural industry: implications for plant health (trade in ornamental plants)Dehnen-Schmutz et al. (2010) Scientia Horticulturae
  • 27. Plant health and stakeholder engagementMacLeod et al. (2010) Food Security
  • 28. What about stream macro-invertebrates (may-, stone- & caddis-flies)? Pictures from http://biokeys.berkeley.edufrom Pautasso & Fontaneto (2008) Ecological Applications
  • 29. Scale-dependence of the correlation between species richness of stream macro-invertebrates and peoplefrom Pecher et al. (2010) Basic and Applied Ecology
  • 30. Locally, the spp-people correlation tends to be negative birds in Florencefrom: Chiari et al. (2010) J Animal Ecology
  • 31. Grasshoppers and people in Europefrom Steck & Pautasso (2008) Acta Oecologica
  • 32. Sampling effort explains the correlation between species richness of Orthoptera and people in Italyfrom Cantarello et al. (2010) Naturwissenschaften
  • 33. Random sample of 100 papers per year on ‘species richness’ in WOS (1991-2004)from: Lonsdale et al. (2008) European Journal of Forest Research
  • 34. Acknowledgements Diego Kevin Fontaneto, Gaston,Mike McKinney, Stockholm Sheffield IngridKnoxville Susanne Fritz, Parmentier, Copenhagen BruxellesPeterWeisberg, Glen Powell, Mathieu South Ken Moslonka- Mike Jeger, Caroline LorenzoReno Pecher, Lefebvre, Paris Silwood Marini, Bozen PadovaOttmar Alessandro Birgit & Florian Schlick- TomHoldenrieder, Claude Steck, Chiarucci, Harwood,Zurich Birmensdorf Steiner, Innsbruck Siena Canberra
  • 35. ReferencesJokimäki J, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki M-L, Suhonen J, Clergeau P, Pautasso M & Fernández-Juricic E (2011) Merging wildlife community ecology and animal behavioral ecologyfor a better urban landscape planning. Landscape & Urban Planning 100: 383-385Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O & Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: fromgenes to landscapes, countries and continents. Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M, Böhning-Gaese K, Clergeau P, Cueto VR, Dinetti M, Fernandez-Juricic E, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki ML, Jokimäki J, McKinney ML, Sodhi NS, Storch D, Tomialojc L,Weisberg PJ, Woinarski J, Fuller RA & Cantarello E (2011) Global macroecology of bird assemblages in urbanized and semi-natural ecosystems. Global Ecology &Biogeography 20: 426-436Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Is the human population a large-scale indicator of the species richness of ground beetles? Anim Cons 13: 432-441Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Positive regional species–people correlations: a sampling artefact or a key issue for sustainable development?Animal Conservation 13: 446-447Cantarello E, Steck CE, Fontana P, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) A multi-scale study of Orthoptera species richness and human population size controlling forsampling effort. Naturwissenschaften 97: 265-271Chiari C, Dinetti M, Licciardello C, Licitra G & Pautasso M (2010) Urbanization and the more-individuals hypothesis. Journal of Animal Ecology 79: 366-371Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural industry: some implications for plant health. ScientiaHorticulturae 125: 1-15Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richness patterns of the living collections of the worlds botanicgardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105: 689-696MacLeod A, Pautasso M, Jeger M & Haines-Young R (2010) Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests & challenges for future plant health. Food Security 2: 49-70Pautasso M (2010) Worsening file-drawer problem in the abstracts of natural, medical and social science databases. Scientometrics 85: 193-202Pautasso M & Pautasso C (2010) Peer reviewing interdisciplinary papers. European Review 18: 227-237Pautasso M & Schäfer H (2010) Peer review delay and selectivity in ecology journals. Scientometrics 84: 307-315Pautasso M, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Pietravalle S, Salama N, Jeger MJ, Lange E & Hehl-Lange S (2010) Plant health and global change – some implications forlandscape management. Biological Reviews 85: 729-755Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor of epidemic size in small-size directed networks.Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories.Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309Pecher C, Fritz S, Marini L, Fontaneto D & Pautasso M (2010) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human population and the species richness of streammacroinvertebrates. Basic Applied Ecology 11: 272-280Harwood TD, Xu XM, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Shaw M (2009) Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and P.kernoviae in the UK. Ecological Modelling 220: 3353-3361Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, andclustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411
  • 36. References (bis)Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M & Dinetti M (2009) Avian species richness, human population and protected areas across Italy’s regions. Environmental Conservation 36: 22-31Pautasso M & Powell G (2009) Aphid biodiversity is correlated with human population in European countries. Oecologia 160: 839-846Pautasso M & Zotti M (2009) Macrofungal taxa and human population in Italys regions. Biodiversity & Conservation 18: 473-485Xu XM, Harwood TD, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales. Ecography 32:504-516Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Comparative epidemiology of zoosporic plant pathogens. European Journal of Plant Pathology 122: 111-126Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Plant disease and global change – the importance of long-term data sets. New Phytologist 177: 8-11Lonsdale D, Pautasso M & Holdenrieder O (2008) Wood-decaying fungi in the forest: conservation needs and management options. European Journal of Forest Research 127:1-22Pautasso M & Chiarucci A (2008) A test of the scale-dependence of the species abundance-people correlation for veteran trees in Italy. Annals of Botany 101: 709-715Pautasso M & Fontaneto D (2008) A test of the species-people correlation for stream macro-invertebrates in European countries. Ecological Applications 18: 1842-1849Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2008) Epidemic threshold and network structure: the interplay of probability of transmission and of persistence in directed networks. EcologicalComplexity 5: 1-8Pautasso M & Weisberg PJ (2008) Density-area relationships: the importance of the zeros. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17: 203-210Schlick-Steiner B, Steiner F & Pautasso M (2008) Ants and people: a test of two mechanisms behind the large-scale human-biodiversity correlation for Formicidae in Europe. Jof Biogeography 35: 2195-2206Steck CE & Pautasso M (2008) Human population, grasshopper and plant species richness in European countries. Acta Oecologica 34: 303-310Jeger MJ, Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Shaw MW (2007) Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences. New Phytologist 174: 179-197Pautasso M (2007) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human presence and plant/vertebrate species richness. Ecology Letters 10: 16-24Pautasso M & McKinney ML (2007) The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area and human population size in the US. Conservation Biology 21, 5: 1333-1340Pautasso M & Parmentier I (2007) Are the living collections of the world’s botanical gardens following species-richness patterns observed in natural ecosystems? BotanicaHelvetica 117: 15-28Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2006) A test of the mechanisms behind avian generalized individuals-area relationships. Global Ecology and Biogeography 15: 303-317Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2005) Resources and global avian assemblage structure in forests. Ecology Letters 8: 282-289Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Stenlid J (2005) Susceptibility to fungal pathogens of forests differing in tree diversity. In: Forest Diversity and Function (Scherer-Lorenzen M,Koerner Ch & Schulze D, eds.). Ecol. Studies Vol. 176. Springer, Berlin, pp. 263-289Holdenrieder O, Pautasso M, Weisberg PJ & Lonsdale D (2004) Tree diseases and landscape processes: the challenge of landscape pathology. Trends in Ecology andEvolution 19, 8: 446-452