Epidemiological modeling of  Phytophthora ramorum: networkproperties of susceptible plant generamovements in the UK nurser...
Disease spread in                                                                 a globalized world                      ...
Epidemiology is just one of the              many applications of network theoryNetwork pictures from:Newman (2003)       ...
Different types of networks      local                                small-world                        random           ...
Epidemic development in different types of networks                                                                    sca...
Temporal development; England & Wales, 2003-2005; n = 1104                 100                                     Records...
Temporal development; England & Wales, 2003-2005; n = 1456                250                                     Records ...
Temporal development; England & Wales, 2003-2005; n = 704                           Nursery records positive to P. ramorum...
England and Wales: records positive                      to Phytophthora ramorum                              n = 2788    ...
Web of susceptible genera connected by Phytophthora ramorum (based ongenus co-existence in 2788 positive findings in Engla...
Frequency distribution of number of plant genera affected by Phytophthora ramorum by n of records in the database of 2788 ...
Connectivity loss in the North American power grid    due to the removal of transmission substations                      ...
AcknowledgementsAlan Inman, Department for Environment, Food            and Rural Affairs, UK       Claire Sansford, Judit...
ReferencesDehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultu...
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Epidemiological modelling of Phytophthora ramorum

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Epidemiological modelling of Phytophthora ramorum, sudden oak death, West Coast of the USA, England and Wales, plant pathology, landscape pathology. Connectivity loss in the North American power grid due to the removal of transmission substations.

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Epidemiological modelling of Phytophthora ramorum

  1. 1. Epidemiological modeling of Phytophthora ramorum: networkproperties of susceptible plant generamovements in the UK nursery sector Marco Pautasso,1 Tom Harwood,2 Mike Shaw,2 Xiangming Xu3 & Mike Jeger1 1 Imperial College London, UK 2 University of Reading, UK 3 East Malling Research, UK SOD Symposium III, 8 Mar 2007
  2. 2. Disease spread in a globalized world number of passengers per dayFrom: Hufnagel, Brockmann & Geisel (2004) Forecast and controlof epidemics in a globalized world. PNAS 101: 15124-15129
  3. 3. Epidemiology is just one of the many applications of network theoryNetwork pictures from:Newman (2003) NATURALThe structure and functionof complex networks. food websSIAM Review 45: 167-256 cell metabolism neural Food web of Little Rock networks Lake, Wisconsin, US ant nests sexual partnerships DISEASE SPREAD family innovation networksInternet flows co-authorship HIVstructure railway urban road nets spread electrical networks networks network power grids telephone calls WWW computing airport Internet E-mail committees grids networks software maps patternsTECHNOLOGICAL SOCIALModified from: Jeger MJ, Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Shaw MW (2007) Modelling diseasespread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences. New Phytologist in press
  4. 4. Different types of networks local small-world random scale-freeModified from: Keeling & Eames (2005) Networks and epidemic models. Interface 2: 295-307
  5. 5. Epidemic development in different types of networks scale-free random 2-D lattice rewired 2-D lattice 1-D lattice rewired 1-D lattice N of nodes of networks = 500; p of infection = 0.1; latent period = 2 time steps; infectious period = 10 time steps From: Shirley & Rushton (2005) The impacts of network topology on disease spread. Ecological Complexity 2: 287-299
  6. 6. Temporal development; England & Wales, 2003-2005; n = 1104 100 Records positive to P. ramorum 75 nurseries/ n of records garden centres 50 25 0 3 4 5 03 3 04 4 05 5 3 4 5 -0 -0 -0 l-0 l-0 l-0 -0 -0 -0 n- n- n- pr pr pr ct ct ct Ju Ju Ju Ja Ja Ja O O O A A AData source: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK
  7. 7. Temporal development; England & Wales, 2003-2005; n = 1456 250 Records positive to P. ramorum 200 estates/ n of records environment 150 100 50 0 3 4 5 03 04 05 4 5 3 3 4 5 -0 -0 -0 l -0 l -0 l-0 -0 -0 -0 n- n- n- pr pr pr ct ct ct Ju Ju Ju Ja Ja Ja O O O A A AData source: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK
  8. 8. Temporal development; England & Wales, 2003-2005; n = 704 Nursery records positive to P. ramorum 100% UK origin 75% non-UK originn of records 50% 25% 0% 3 4 5 3 4 5 3 4 5 03 04 05 -0 -0 -0 l-0 l-0 l-0 -0 -0 -0 n- n- n- pr pr pr ct ct ct Ju Ju Ju Ja Ja Ja O O O A A AData source: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK
  9. 9. England and Wales: records positive to Phytophthora ramorum n = 2788 Jan 2003-Dec 2005Courtesy ofRichard Baker, Data source: DEFRA, UKCSL, UK
  10. 10. Web of susceptible genera connected by Phytophthora ramorum (based ongenus co-existence in 2788 positive findings in England & Wales, 2003-2005) Viburnum Camellia Umbellularia Castanea Taxus Syringa Drimys Fagus Rhodo- dendron Festuca Hamamelis Quercus Kalmia Pieris Laurus Magnolia Parrotia LeucothoeData source: DEFRA, UK
  11. 11. Frequency distribution of number of plant genera affected by Phytophthora ramorum by n of records in the database of 2788 positive findings in England & Wales, 2003-2005) 1.2 log10 number of affected genera y = -0.33x + 1.27 1.0 2 R = 0.93 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 log10 n of positive P. ramorum records in databaseData source: DEFRA, UK
  12. 12. Connectivity loss in the North American power grid due to the removal of transmission substations transmission nodes removed (%)From: Albert, Albert & Nakarado (2004) Structural vulnerability of the North American power grid. Physical Review E 69, 025103
  13. 13. AcknowledgementsAlan Inman, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Claire Sansford, Judith Turner & Richard Baker, Central Science Laboratory, York, UK Sandra Denman & Joan Webber, Forest Research, Alice Holt, UK Ottmar Holdenrieder, ETH, Zurich, CH Jennifer Parke, Oregon State University
  14. 14. ReferencesDehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural industry: some implicationsfor plant health. Scientia Horticulturae 125: 1-15Harwood TD, Xu XM, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Shaw M (2009) Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling:Phytophthora ramorum and P. kernoviae in the UK. Ecological Modelling 220: 3353-3361Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Comparative epidemiology of zoosporic plant pathogens. European Journal of Plant Pathology 122: 111-126Jeger MJ, Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Shaw MW (2007) Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences. NewPhytologist 174: 179-197Lonsdale D, Pautasso M & Holdenrieder O (2008) Wood-decaying fungi in the forest: conservation needs and management options. EuropeanJournal of Forest Research 127: 1-22MacLeod A, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Haines-Young R (2010) Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests and challenges for future planthealth. Food Security 2: 49-70Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation betweenlinks to and from nodes, and clustering. J Theor Biol 260: 402-411Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O & Pautasso M (2011) Networks inplant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents. Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Systematics & Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M (2010) Worsening file-drawer problem in the abstracts of natural, medical and social science databases. Scientometrics 85: 193-202Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2008) Epidemic threshold and network structure: the interplay of probability of transmission and of persistence in directednetworks. Ecological Complexity 5: 1-8Pautasso M et al (2010) Plant health and global change – some implications for landscape management. Biological Reviews 85: 729-755Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor of epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks: the role ofhierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309Xu XM, Harwood TD, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in Englandand Wales. Ecography 32: 504-516

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