Outstanding challenges       in the study of seed exchange networks inagrobiodiversity conservation         Marco Pautasso...
Seed exchange networks: defining the terms                            Intra-European Trade   Organic seed          of Orna...
The talk is partly based on this review of the literature
Challenge nr 1: how to keep up with the literature?                                        A selection of                 ...
NETSEED-CESAB           Agrobiodiversité et réseaux sociaux       Une approche interdisciplinaire pour analyser        com...
Challenge nr 2: how to stop the loss of biodiversity?                                                               aggreg...
CESAB (Centrefor Synthesisand Analysis ofBiodiversity data)Technopole del’Arbois (~ Aix en Provence)               3rd Cal...
Average time spent travelling in the UK (1930s-1990s)                                         Schulz (2004)               ...
[CO2]from MacKay (2008) Sustainable Energy – without the Hot Air
Average temperature α [CO2] (a reminder)                                    Shakun                                    et a...
Carbon emissions of conservation biologistsFox et al. (2009) Frontiers in the Ecology and the Environment
Sustainable transport of seed(sorghum?) in Kathwana market, Kenya                         Picture: Christian Leclerc      ...
Seed potato sources        in Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia Gildemacher et al. (2009) A description of seed potato systems in...
Maize seed sources in MexicoBellon et al. (2011) Assessing the vulnerability of traditional maize seed                syst...
Challenge nr 3. How to study/predict/manage  global change effects on agrodiversity?Pautasso et al. (2012) Agronomy for Su...
Challenge nr 4. How to achieve interdisciplinarity?           Kiss et al. (2010) Can epidemic models describe  the diffusi...
Hypothetical network of interdisciplinary collaborations  among scientists interested in seed exchange networksPautasso et...
Challenge nr 5. Involving stakeholdersPautasso et al. (2012) European Journal of Plant Pathology
Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia                            Abay et al. (2011)        Plant Genetic Resou...
Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia     N nodes = 186, N links = 210                                        ...
Network structure and correlation between links in and out                                                 one-way        ...
Some recent applications of network theoryNetwork pictures from:           NATURALNewman (2003)SIAM Review                ...
Challenge nr 6. How to learn from network theory?                         Network         Seed exchange                   ...
Simple model of spread and establishment in a network   SIS deterministic model, 100 Nodes, fixed structure, absence/prese...
Lower invasion threshold for scale-free networks with              positive correlation between in- and out-degree        ...
Lower epidemic threshold for two-way scale-free networks        (unless networks are sparsely connected)                  ...
100                                       100                                            75                               ...
2.0                                                      3.0                                           1.5                ...
Correlation of invasion final size with out-degree of       starting node increases with network connectivityfrom: Pautass...
Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia              100              10                                        ...
Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia                           4                                         6   ...
What is an organization?Butts (2009) Revisiting the foundations of network analysis. Science
Network metrics as a function of sampling intensity                                             Dormann et                ...
Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia                            Abay et al. (2011)        Plant Genetic Resou...
Orbis terrarum, Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa, ~27 a.C.from http://www.arqweb.com/vitrum/orbis22.asp
from Jeger et al. 2011
Living collections of the world’s botanical gardens                                                                       ...
Botanic vs. linguistic diversity  Burnside et al. (2011) Biological Reviews
Species-people correlation in Europe    plants                     birdsfrom Araujo (2003)    sppGlobal Ecology &Biogeogra...
Invasion biogeography of Sudden Oak Death              Trace forward/back zipcode              Positive (Phytophthora ramo...
Phytophthora ramorum in the UK and EuropeFrom: UK Forestry Commission (Feb 2012) and EFSA Plant Health Panel (2011)
Species richness of human parasitic and infectious         diseases as a function of latitude     Burnside et al. (2011) H...
Challenge nr 7. What can we learn from biogeography?Freeman (2011) Domesticated crop richness in human subsistence cultiva...
Scenarios to anticipate challenges to biodiversity, landscapes and public engagement with nature1) Connect  for Life 2) Go...
A proposed model of on-farm plant genetic conservationSelection oftarget taxa                                     On farm ...
Challenge nr 8. How to identify research priorities?
Identifying research priorities and emerging issues
Identifying research priorities and emerging issues                 Grierson et al. (2011)
Seven means of identifying research priorities  (they are neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive)  (i) reflection by in...
Question requirements…(i) answerable through a realistic research design,(ii) that have a factual answer that does not dep...
Challenge nr 9. How to promotea diversity of research methods?                                   Pautasso et              ...
Three results from recent game theory studies  1. cooperation is more   likely to persist in an        Droz et al. (2009) ...
Summary of challenges1. Keeping up with the literature    2. Stopping biodiversity loss    3. Global change interactions  ...
Don’t miss the ISE sessions S28 and S10on Thursday 24 May at the Botanical Institute  13th Congress of the International S...
A forum of 25 researchers selected by the  European Commission in April 2012                   http://voice.euraxess.org/P...
Samedi 19 Mai,Mas Drevon, Montpellier, 17h
Acknowledgements                                                Diego                          Kevin                      ...
Life cycle assessment for walnut seedling production     Cambria & Pierangeli (2011) A life cycle assessment case study fo...
Life cycle assessments of the US food system  Heller & Keoleian (2003) Assessing the sustainability of the US food        ...
Genetic structure of a rice landrace in Northern Thailand      Pusadee et al. (2009) Genetic structure and isolation by di...
Regression model of n of spp per homegarden, PeruPerrault-Archmibault & Coomes (2008) Distribution of agrobiodiversity in ...
„Wealth“               Biogeographical patterns                                                       of the living collec...
„Wealth“          Biogeographical patterns           .48                      R² = .22                                    ...
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Outstanding challenges in the study of seed exchange networks in agrobiodiversity conservation

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How to keep up with the literature? How to stop the loss of biodiversity? How to study/predict/manage global change effects on agrodiversity? How to achieve interdisciplinarity? How to involve stakeholders? How to learn from network theory? What can we learn from biogeography?

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  • Slide 21. Together, the National Survey and the trace-forward surveys resulted in P. ramorum detections in over 160 infested sites in more than 20 states. Plants have been destroyed in an attempt to eradicate the pathogen in all cases. However, some plants were sold before inspection. There is a risk that the pathogen may move from infected nursery stock planted in the landscape to nearby native forest vegetation. The goal of the PRED program is help find any additional infected plants in our landscapes and wildlands.
  • Outstanding challenges in the study of seed exchange networks in agrobiodiversity conservation

    1. 1. Outstanding challenges in the study of seed exchange networks inagrobiodiversity conservation Marco Pautasso marpauta at gmail.com CEFE, CNRS, 14 May 2012
    2. 2. Seed exchange networks: defining the terms Intra-European Trade Organic seed of Ornamental Plants (2003)
    3. 3. The talk is partly based on this review of the literature
    4. 4. Challenge nr 1: how to keep up with the literature? A selection of recent reviews on agro- biodiversity conservation and/or seed exchange networks from Pautasso et al. (2012) Agr Sust Dev
    5. 5. NETSEED-CESAB Agrobiodiversité et réseaux sociaux Une approche interdisciplinaire pour analyser comment les systèmes semenciers locaux agissent sur la diversité des plantes domestiquées NETSEED FRB-CESAB
    6. 6. Challenge nr 2: how to stop the loss of biodiversity? aggregated indicators of A) species’ population trends, habitat extent and condition, and community composition B) ecological footprint, nitrogen deposition, alien species, overexploitation and climatic impacts C) protected area extent and biodiversity coverage, responses to invasive alien species, sustainable forest management and biodiversity-related aid 6000 5000 Web of Science papers number of papers 4000 on biodiversity 3000 2000 1000 0Butchart et al. (2010) Science 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
    7. 7. CESAB (Centrefor Synthesisand Analysis ofBiodiversity data)Technopole del’Arbois (~ Aix en Provence) 3rd Call for CESAB Working Groups (deadline pre-registration 25 May 2012, deadline for submission end of June 2012)
    8. 8. Average time spent travelling in the UK (1930s-1990s) Schulz (2004) Population & Environment
    9. 9. [CO2]from MacKay (2008) Sustainable Energy – without the Hot Air
    10. 10. Average temperature α [CO2] (a reminder) Shakun et al (2012) Nature
    11. 11. Carbon emissions of conservation biologistsFox et al. (2009) Frontiers in the Ecology and the Environment
    12. 12. Sustainable transport of seed(sorghum?) in Kathwana market, Kenya Picture: Christian Leclerc (CIRAD, Montpellier)
    13. 13. Seed potato sources in Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia Gildemacher et al. (2009) A description of seed potato systems inKenya, Uganda and Ethiopia. American Journal of Potato Research
    14. 14. Maize seed sources in MexicoBellon et al. (2011) Assessing the vulnerability of traditional maize seed systems in Mexico to climate change. PNAS
    15. 15. Challenge nr 3. How to study/predict/manage global change effects on agrodiversity?Pautasso et al. (2012) Agronomy for Sustainable Development
    16. 16. Challenge nr 4. How to achieve interdisciplinarity? Kiss et al. (2010) Can epidemic models describe the diffusion of topics across disciplines? Journal of Informetrics
    17. 17. Hypothetical network of interdisciplinary collaborations among scientists interested in seed exchange networksPautasso et al. (2012) Agronomy for Sustainable Development
    18. 18. Challenge nr 5. Involving stakeholdersPautasso et al. (2012) European Journal of Plant Pathology
    19. 19. Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia Abay et al. (2011) Plant Genetic Resources – Characterization and Utilization
    20. 20. Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia N nodes = 186, N links = 210 data from: Abay et al. (2011) node ID links in links out 218 1 0 314 0 1 135 2 1 120 1 1 … 100 6 number of incoming links incomingnumber of nodes 80 5 links 4 60 outgoing links 3 40 2 20 1 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 number of links number of outgoing links
    21. 21. Network structure and correlation between links in and out one-way random uncorrelated local scale-free two-ways small-world modified from: Keeling & Eames (2005) Interface
    22. 22. Some recent applications of network theoryNetwork pictures from: NATURALNewman (2003)SIAM Review food webs cell metabolism neural Food web of Little Rock networks Lake, Wisconsin, US ant nests sexual partnerships DISEASE SPREAD family innovation networksInternet flows co-authorship HIVstructure railway urban road nets spread electrical networks networks network power grids telephone calls WWW computing airport Internet E-mail committees grids networks software maps patternsTECHNOLOGICAL SOCIALMoslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology
    23. 23. Challenge nr 6. How to learn from network theory? Network Seed exchange epidemiology networks Elements movingthanks to a network pathogens/ seeds, varieties/ of contacts human beings farmers through awareDiffusion happens inadvertently decisions Main aim of minimizing preserving applied research disease spread agrobiodiversity Picture from Kaluza et al. (2010) Interface
    24. 24. Simple model of spread and establishment in a network SIS deterministic model, 100 Nodes, fixed structure, absence/presence continuum P [i (x, t)] = Σ { pp * P [i (x, t-1)] + pt * P [i (y, t-1)]} node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 … 100 step 1 pp probability of pt probability of persistence transmission step 2 step 3 … step nMoslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology
    25. 25. Lower invasion threshold for scale-free networks with positive correlation between in- and out-degree 1.00 localprobability of persistence random 0.75 small-world INVASION scale-free (two-way) scale-free (uncorrelated) 0.50 scale-free (one way) 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 NO INVASION probability of transmission from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology
    26. 26. Lower epidemic threshold for two-way scale-free networks (unless networks are sparsely connected) N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) Journal of Theoretical Biology
    27. 27. 100 100 75 (local) 75 (sw)(N of nodes with invasion status > 0.01) 50 50 25 25 0 0 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 final size of invasion 100 100 (rand) 75 75 (sf2) 50 50 25 25 0 0 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 100 100 75 (sf0) 75 (sf1) 50 50 25 25 0 0 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 starting node of the invasion
    28. 28. 2.0 3.0 1.5 local 2.5 swacross all nodes (+0.01 for sf networks) 2.0sum at equilibrium of invasion status 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 2 4 6 8 3.0 1.0 2.5 rand sf2 (log-log) 2.0 1.5 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 -1.0 -1 0 1 2 3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2.0 2.0 1.5 sf0 (log-log) 1.5 sf1 (log-log) 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 n of links from starting node n of links from starting node
    29. 29. Correlation of invasion final size with out-degree of starting node increases with network connectivityfrom: Pautassoet al. (2010)Ecological N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.;Complexity different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05
    30. 30. Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia 100 10 100 12 80 Buket 10 80 8 Bolenta Mugulat Buket Aynalem Bolenta Mugulat Melfa number of nodes number of nodes number of nodes Habes 8 Aynalem Melfanumber of nodes Adinefas 60 6 Adinefas Habes 60 Habes Adinefas Melfa Adinefas Habes Aynalem 6 Melfa Aynalem Mugulat Bolenta 40 4 Buket bridges 40 Mugulat Bolenta Buket bridges 4 20 20 2 2 0 0 00 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 number of outgoing5links6 2 3 4 1 number of incoming links6 2 3 4 5 number of incoming links number of outgoing links data from: Abay et al. (2011)
    31. 31. Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia 4 6 4 4 n = 11, y = -0.25x + 1.91 n = 14 n = 16 n = 11, y = 0.32x + 1.48 2 R = 0.29, p = 0.09 5 2 R = 0.32, p = 0.07 3 3 3 4 2 3 2 2 2number of incoming links 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 3 4 4 4 n = 92, y = -0.37x + 0.80 n=9 n = 19 n = 14, y = 0.32x + 1.33 2 2 R = 0.20, p < 0.01 R = 0.21, p = 0.10 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 0 2 4 6 number of outgoing links data from: Abay et al. (2011)
    32. 32. What is an organization?Butts (2009) Revisiting the foundations of network analysis. Science
    33. 33. Network metrics as a function of sampling intensity Dormann et al. (2009) The Open Ecology Journal
    34. 34. Network analysis of barley seed flows in Ethiopia Abay et al. (2011) Plant Genetic Resources – Characterization and Utilization
    35. 35. Orbis terrarum, Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa, ~27 a.C.from http://www.arqweb.com/vitrum/orbis22.asp
    36. 36. from Jeger et al. 2011
    37. 37. Living collections of the world’s botanical gardens (c)(a) (c) log10 spp richness (n) (d) (yr) (b) Size of countries reflects n of botanic gardens (d)b from: http://www.worldmapper.org/a, c & d: from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica
    38. 38. Botanic vs. linguistic diversity Burnside et al. (2011) Biological Reviews
    39. 39. Species-people correlation in Europe plants birdsfrom Araujo (2003) sppGlobal Ecology &Biogeography people
    40. 40. Invasion biogeography of Sudden Oak Death Trace forward/back zipcode Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site Hold released from: McKelvey et al. (2007)Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004 SOD Science Symposium IIIAnimal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine
    41. 41. Phytophthora ramorum in the UK and EuropeFrom: UK Forestry Commission (Feb 2012) and EFSA Plant Health Panel (2011)
    42. 42. Species richness of human parasitic and infectious diseases as a function of latitude Burnside et al. (2011) Human macroecology: linking pattern and process in big-picture human ecology. Biological Reviews
    43. 43. Challenge nr 7. What can we learn from biogeography?Freeman (2011) Domesticated crop richness in human subsistence cultivation systems:a test of macroecological and economic determinants. Global Ecology & Biogeography
    44. 44. Scenarios to anticipate challenges to biodiversity, landscapes and public engagement with nature1) Connect for Life 2) Go for Growth3) Keep it Local4) Succeed Kass et al. (2012) through Journal of Applied Science Ecology
    45. 45. A proposed model of on-farm plant genetic conservationSelection oftarget taxa On farm conservation Project commission Phase 1: Project Planning and Establishment • Identification of project site(s) Ecogeographic survey • Project sustainability Development of •Identification of project partners conservation objectives • Formulation of project activities Field exploration Phase 2: Project Management and Monitoring • Initiation of project activities • Monitoring activities Conservation products • Review of project activities Product deposition and Phase 3: Diversity Utilisation dissemination • Traditional, general and Characterization / professional utilization evaluation • Links to ex situ conservation, Plant genetic resource research and education utilization redrawn from: Maxted et al. (2002) Towards a methodology for on-farm conservation of plant genetic resources. Genetic Resources and Crop Evolution
    46. 46. Challenge nr 8. How to identify research priorities?
    47. 47. Identifying research priorities and emerging issues
    48. 48. Identifying research priorities and emerging issues Grierson et al. (2011)
    49. 49. Seven means of identifying research priorities (they are neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive) (i) reflection by individual workshop participants, (ii) reviews of the peer-reviewed and gray literature by individual workshop participants, (iii) informal discussions between workshop participants and colleagues, (iv) use of email, blogs, tweets, Facebook, and other electronic mechanisms for social networking, (v) facilitating a workshop with colleagues, (vi) assigning students to generate material as a class assignment, and (vii) an interactive website. Sutherland et al. (2011) Methods in Ecology & Evolution
    50. 50. Question requirements…(i) answerable through a realistic research design,(ii) that have a factual answer that does not depend on value judgments,(iii) that address important gaps in knowledge,(iv) of a spatial and temporal scope that reasonably could be addressed by a research team,(v) not formulated as a general topic area,(vi) not answerable with it all depends, (vii) except if questioning a precise statement (‘does the earth go round the sun?’)(vii) should not be answerable by yes or no (i.e. not ‘is X better for biodiversity than Y’),(viii) if related to impact and interventions, contains a subject, an intervention, and a measurable outcome.An ideal question suggests the design of research that is required to answer it or can be envisioned as translating the question into directly testable research hypotheses. Sutherland et al. (2011) Methods in Ecology & Evolution
    51. 51. Challenge nr 9. How to promotea diversity of research methods? Pautasso et al. (2012) Agr Sust Dev
    52. 52. Three results from recent game theory studies 1. cooperation is more likely to persist in an Droz et al. (2009) European interacting population Physical Journal B if cooperating individuals are mobile2. cooperation benefits from diversity in the number of social Santos et al. (2009)interactions and in the Journal of Theoretical Biology choice of role models to imitate 3. higher amount of Kaplan et al. (2012) exchanges in high Proceedings of the Royal Society Bvariance environments
    53. 53. Summary of challenges1. Keeping up with the literature 2. Stopping biodiversity loss 3. Global change interactions 4. Interdisciplinarity 5. Involving stakeholders 6. Network theory 7. Large-scale picture 8. Identifying research priorities 9. Diversity of methods
    54. 54. Don’t miss the ISE sessions S28 and S10on Thursday 24 May at the Botanical Institute 13th Congress of the International Society of Ethnobiology, 20-25 May 2012, Montpellier “Cultural diversity and biological diversity for sustainable development: exploring the past to build up the future”
    55. 55. A forum of 25 researchers selected by the European Commission in April 2012 http://voice.euraxess.org/Please send your suggestions! marpauta at gmail.com
    56. 56. Samedi 19 Mai,Mas Drevon, Montpellier, 17h
    57. 57. Acknowledgements Diego Kevin Fontaneto, Gaston,Mike McKinney, Verbania Cornwall IngridKnoxville Susanne Fritz, Parmentier, Frankfurt BrusselsPeterWeisberg, Glen Powell, Mathieu Wye Moslonka- Mike Jeger, Caroline LorenzoReno Pecher, Lefebvre, Paris Silwood Marini, Bozen UppsalaOttmar Alessandro Birgit & Florian Schlick- Chiarucci, TomHoldenrieder, Claude Steck, Harwood,Zurich Freiburg i.B. Steiner, Innsbruck Siena Canberra
    58. 58. Life cycle assessment for walnut seedling production Cambria & Pierangeli (2011) A life cycle assessment case study for walnut tree (Juglans regia L.) seedlings production. International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment
    59. 59. Life cycle assessments of the US food system Heller & Keoleian (2003) Assessing the sustainability of the US food system: a life cycle perspective. Agricultural Systems
    60. 60. Genetic structure of a rice landrace in Northern Thailand Pusadee et al. (2009) Genetic structure and isolation by distance in a landrace of Thai rice. PNAS
    61. 61. Regression model of n of spp per homegarden, PeruPerrault-Archmibault & Coomes (2008) Distribution of agrobiodiversity in home gardens along the Corrientes river, Peruvian Amazon. Economic Botany
    62. 62. „Wealth“ Biogeographical patterns of the living collections GDP SPP of the world’s botanic gardens „combined“Hypothesis: Rich countries have rich gardens GDP AGE „Garden“ LAT SPP POP AGE SPP AREA FLORA AREA Hyp.: There‘s a combination of processes Hyp.: Garden characteristics matter most „Flora“ LAT SPP FLORAHyp.: Diverse garden mirror a rich country flora Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany
    63. 63. „Wealth“ Biogeographical patterns .48 R² = .22 of the living collections GDP SPP of the world’s botanic gardens „combined“ „Garden“ GDP .30 AGE .68 .28 R² = .21 R² = .44 .43 .19AGE SPP LAT SPP POP -.59 .31 .21 -.11AREA AREA FLORA Significant at alpha 0.05 „Flora“ LAT .47 R² = .22 Non-significant; P > 0.05 -.55 .01 SPPFLORA Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany

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