21st Century Button
Please press
and enter
with curiosity ....
(Questions Highly Welcome)
Asia and the New World Order
The Menu
How the epicenter of the world economy is shifting towards Asia
Milestones in this d...
How the epicenter
of the world economy
is shifting towards Asia
1
Asia and the New World Order
94
100
106
112
118
124
130
June 2008 June 2009 June 2010
India
Brazil
Turkey
US
Emerging Markets are Producing
Above Their...
Company Year Volume –
bn. dollars
Country
Agricultural Bank
of China
2010 22,10 China
ICBC 2006 21,97 China
Visa Inc. 2008...
Largest Forex Trading
Countries
Share of
World Market
Growth in %
Jan. 2007 – Apr. 2010
UK 36,7% +24,9%
U.S. 17,9% +21.4%
...
Commercial Real Estate: Asia Pacific
taking the lead in global transactions
US Eurozone Japan Asia China India
0
10
20
30
40
Share of
World´s Total Consumption
2000
2009
Asia and Eurozone with a Gro...
Europe France Germany Japan UKChina0
4
8
12
16
20
-4
-8
-12
China´s innovators
are escaping the crisis
Y-o-y change in pat...
Milestones in this Development2
Asia and the New World Order
Milestones
Asia and the New World Order
China surpassing Germany as the leading export power (2009)
China overtaking the...
Global Forex
Reserves
- Q4 of each
year
Total
in bn
dollars
Indus-
trialized
countries
EM World
Share of
EM
Holdings
2001 ...
Europe Outstripped by Asia
in Building the Future
10
20
30
40
50
Asia Europe U.S. China Germany
35.7
41.4
31.9
28.4
23.2
2...
The China Factor3
Asia and the New World Order
London
Shanghai
Beijing
Tokyo
Hong Kong
Hangzhou
Paris
Tianjin
New York
Suzhou
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10 15 20 25 30
26,3
Bi...
How much does China contribute to
the growth of various countries ?
Source: Airports Council International
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
08
2009 2010
09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
13,4
13,7
16,5
17,8
18,1
20,720,7
18,5
19,2
1...
Latest on CHINA
World Bank
Integrating Asia - New trade routes
are shaping the world economy
4
Asia and the New World Order
Source: U.S. Commerce Department
Challenges (the risks going forward)5
Asia and the New World Order
Asia and the New World Order
Risks going Forward
1 Massive capital inflows as a result of Fed easing – World Bank: „Rising...
Wage growth
accelerating ....
Lots of room to grow6
Asia and the New World Order
Where do I invest in Asia ?
Best locations for Business7
Asia and the New World Order
Corruption Perceptions
Index 2009 /
Corruption in the civil
service sector
Ranking
in 2009
0 = Totally corrupt
10 = no cor...
The Global
Competitiveness
Index 2009–
2010
Position/
Ranking
in 2009/2010
Position
in prior year
Singapore 3 5
Japan 8 9
...
Top Asian countries
in the Index
South Korea
India
Japan
Indonesia
China
OECD
FDI Restrictiveness
Index 2010
Singapor...
The 5 Corners of China8
Asia and the New World Order
Patience
Guanxi
The LawHòu mén
Face
The Five Corners
of China
Asia and the New World Order
Sources for this presentation
1 You find the presentation at – www.slideshare.net/markusgaert...
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
Asia driving the global economy
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Asia driving the global economy

  1. 1. 21st Century Button Please press and enter with curiosity .... (Questions Highly Welcome)
  2. 2. Asia and the New World Order The Menu How the epicenter of the world economy is shifting towards Asia Milestones in this development The China factor Integrating Asia - New trade routes are shaping the world economy Challenges (the risks going forward) Still lots of room to grow Where do I invest in Asia ? – Best locations for Business Dessert: The 5 corners of China 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
  3. 3. How the epicenter of the world economy is shifting towards Asia 1 Asia and the New World Order
  4. 4. 94 100 106 112 118 124 130 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 India Brazil Turkey US Emerging Markets are Producing Above Their Pre-Crisis Levels Index: June 2007 = 100 June 2007 China Eurozone
  5. 5. Company Year Volume – bn. dollars Country Agricultural Bank of China 2010 22,10 China ICBC 2006 21,97 China Visa Inc. 2008 19,65 USA NTT Mobile 1998 18,05 Japan Enel SpA 1999 16,59 Italy Nippon Telegraph 1986 13,75 Japan Deutsche Telekom 1996 12,49 Germany Bank of China 2006 11,19 China Dai-ichi Life 2010 11,16 Japan Rosneft Oil 2006 10,66 Russia ASIA TOTAL 98 of 157 bn. =62,3% of the volume World´s largest IPOs Source: FORBES
  6. 6. Largest Forex Trading Countries Share of World Market Growth in % Jan. 2007 – Apr. 2010 UK 36,7% +24,9% U.S. 17,9% +21.4% Japan 6,2% +24,8% Singapore 5,3% +10% Switzerland 5,2% +3,5% Hong Kong 4,7% +31,2% Australia 3,8% +8,9% France 3,0% +19,5% Denmark 2,4% +36,6% Germany 2,1% +7,1%
  7. 7. Commercial Real Estate: Asia Pacific taking the lead in global transactions
  8. 8. US Eurozone Japan Asia China India 0 10 20 30 40 Share of World´s Total Consumption 2000 2009 Asia and Eurozone with a Growing Share of the World´s Consumption 34,7% 28,8% 18,2% 20,6% 13,3% 8,6% 8,9% 11,6% 2,8% 5,0% 1,6% 2,2% Sources: IMF, UBS In Percent
  9. 9. Europe France Germany Japan UKChina0 4 8 12 16 20 -4 -8 -12 China´s innovators are escaping the crisis Y-o-y change in patent registrations in Percent 2008 2009 18,2 8,5 3,8 -7,9 -2,4 -3,6 2,3 -4,5 -1,3 -10,8 -6,5 -3,9 Source:World Intellectual Property Indicators 2010 Global R&D Center Shifting East
  10. 10. Milestones in this Development2 Asia and the New World Order
  11. 11. Milestones Asia and the New World Order China surpassing Germany as the leading export power (2009) China overtaking the U.S. as the largest car market (2009) China becomes no. 2 economy ahead of Japan (1Q2010) China is now the leading investor in renewable energy sources China now the world´s largest wind market (after doubling capacity in 2008) China passes the U.S. as the world´s biggest energy user (2009) China now registers most of the global IPOs China now the largest English-speaking nation (2010) – 300 million
  12. 12. Global Forex Reserves - Q4 of each year Total in bn dollars Indus- trialized countries EM World Share of EM Holdings 2001 2.049 1.245 803 39,2% 2002 2.407 1.442 965 40,1% 2003 3.025 1.765 1.259 41,6% 2004 3.748 2.068 1.679 44,8% 2005 4.320 2.076 2.243 51,9% 2006 5.251 2.249 3.001 57,2% 2007 6.699 2.429 4.270 63,7% 2008 7.337 2.487 4.850 66,1% 2009 8.165 2.775 5.390 66,0% 2010 / Q1 8.295 2.824 5.471 65,9% Growth in % 2001-2010 404,8% 226,8% 681,3 % Source: IMF http://www.imf.org/external/ np/sta/cofer/eng/cofer.pdf 2005: For the first time ever EM are holding more forex reserves than the „West“, and more than 50 % of the world´s reserves 2001-2010: EM reserves grow by 681 % / In the West it´s „only“ 226 % - EM now holding 65% of global forex reserves
  13. 13. Europe Outstripped by Asia in Building the Future 10 20 30 40 50 Asia Europe U.S. China Germany 35.7 41.4 31.9 28.4 23.2 20.3 14.0 20.1 4.6 4.0 2002 2007 Asia represents more and more of the world´s researchers R&D Hub United States Germany Europe China Asia 2,000 4,000 6,000 Researchers per million Inhabitants Weighted Numbers The UNESCO´s „Global Perspective On Research And Development“ shows Asia winning the race for the most R&D Brains Asia represented 41.4% of world researchers in 2007, vs. 28.4 in Europe and 25.8 in the Americas – Asia´s rise fueled by China 0
  14. 14. The China Factor3 Asia and the New World Order
  15. 15. London Shanghai Beijing Tokyo Hong Kong Hangzhou Paris Tianjin New York Suzhou 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 15 20 25 30 26,3 Billion USD 25,9 23,9 21,4 20,3 13,8 13,3 12,8 12,4 11,9 Total Turnover, including all deals with at least 10 million dollars since September 2009 The World´s Top Real Estate Places Six Chinese cities are among the Top 10 locations with the Highest Turnover Quelle: Real Capital Analytics
  16. 16. How much does China contribute to the growth of various countries ?
  17. 17. Source: Airports Council International
  18. 18. 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 08 2009 2010 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 13,4 13,7 16,5 17,8 18,1 20,720,7 18,5 19,2 16,1 13,9 12,3 China Holding Up Well Industrial production keeps growing at rates above 13% even though loans are restricted and Beijing is tightening the the real estate market Change in % y-o-y Source: Li & Fung Group The Relentless Dragon 09 13,9 13,3
  19. 19. Latest on CHINA World Bank
  20. 20. Integrating Asia - New trade routes are shaping the world economy 4 Asia and the New World Order
  21. 21. Source: U.S. Commerce Department
  22. 22. Challenges (the risks going forward)5 Asia and the New World Order
  23. 23. Asia and the New World Order Risks going Forward 1 Massive capital inflows as a result of Fed easing – World Bank: „Rising Risks“ 2 Rising income gaps 3 Weakening of the traditional family 4 Greying societies 5 Massive environmental degradation 6 Challenges to authoritarian rule 7 Strategic rivalry between China, India and Japan / ASEAN 8 Scarcity of commodities – Food security, energy imports (ADB) 9 A possible setback in China 10 Will the transformation from export-led economies to strong domestic markets work ? (IMF)
  24. 24. Wage growth accelerating ....
  25. 25. Lots of room to grow6 Asia and the New World Order
  26. 26. Where do I invest in Asia ? Best locations for Business7 Asia and the New World Order
  27. 27. Corruption Perceptions Index 2009 / Corruption in the civil service sector Ranking in 2009 0 = Totally corrupt 10 = no corruption Singapore 3 9,2 Hong Kong 12 8,2 Japan 17 7,7 Taiwan 37 5,6 South Korea 39 5,5 Malaysia 56 4,5 China 79 3,6 India 84 3,4 Thailand 84 3,4 Indonesia 111 2,8 Vietnam 120 2,7 Philippines 139 2,4 Source: Transparency International - www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2009/cpi_2009_table
  28. 28. The Global Competitiveness Index 2009– 2010 Position/ Ranking in 2009/2010 Position in prior year Singapore 3 5 Japan 8 9 Hong Kong 11 11 Taiwan 12 17 South Korea 19 13 Malaysia 24 21 China 29 30 Thailand 36 34 India 49 50 Indonesia 54 55 Vietnam 75 70 Philippines 87 71 Source: World Economic Forum - WEF - www.weforum.org/pdf/GCR09/GCR20092010fullrankings.pdf
  29. 29. Top Asian countries in the Index South Korea India Japan Indonesia China OECD FDI Restrictiveness Index 2010 Singapore & Hong Kong no OECD members Neither are India, Indonesia and China
  30. 30. The 5 Corners of China8 Asia and the New World Order
  31. 31. Patience Guanxi The LawHòu mén Face The Five Corners of China
  32. 32. Asia and the New World Order Sources for this presentation 1 You find the presentation at – www.slideshare.net/markusgaertner/asia-driving-the-global-economy 2 Doing Business 2011 - www.doingbusiness.org/reports/doing-business/doing-business-2011 3 BASF „Doing Business in China“ - www.trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/july/tradoc_129277.pdf 4 The Path to 2050 / Goldman Sachs - http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/book/99-dreaming.pdf 5 IMF Global Forex Reserves - www.imf.org/external/np/sta/cofer/eng/cofer.pdf 6 World´s largest IPOs - www.forbes.com/2010/06/22/biggest-ipo-china-markets-equities-agbank_slide_4.html 7 Real Capital Analytics - www.rcanalytics.com/abouttrendstrades.aspx 8 IMF – World Economic Outlook - www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2006/02/index.htm 9 World Intellectual Property Indicators - www.wipo.int/export/sites/www/ipstats/en/statistics/patents/pdf/941_2010.pdf 10 World Development Indicators / WB – www.data.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/wdi-final.pdf 11 World Energy Outlook 2010 / IEA - www.worldenergyoutlook.org/ 12 IMF Regional Economic Outlook – Asia and the Pacific, October 2010 - www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2010/apd/eng/areo1010.htm 13 UNESCO Science Report 2010 - www.unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0018/001898/189883E.pdf 14 A Global Perspective on Research and Development - www.unesco.org/science/psd/wsd07/Fact_Sheet_2009.pdf 15 World Federation of Exchanges – Key Market Figures - www.world-exchanges.org/statistics/key-market-figures 16 World Wealth Report 2010, Cap Gemini - www.capgemini.com/services-and-solutions/by-industry/financial- services/solutions/wealth/worldwealthreport/ 17 Li & Fung Group – Research Center, Hong Kong - www.lifunggroup.com/research/research01.htm
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