Dbr february 2012 cesar


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Dbr february 2012 cesar

  1. 1. CESAR Climate and Environmental change and Sustainable Accessibility of the Randstad DBR February 2012 Prof. Martin Dijst Faculty of Geosciences Utrecht University
  2. 2. CESAR in a nutshell Challenge 1 Challenge 2
  3. 3. Progress challenge 1 • Systematic and comprehensive review of literature • Incomplete and fragmented KhattakandDePalma,1995 DePalmaandRochat,1999 Coolsetal.,2010 AaheimandHauge,2005 Sabir,2011 Mülleretal.,2008 Nankervis,1999 BergströmandMagnusson,2003 KilpelainenandSummala,2007 Richardson,2000 Wintersetal.,2007 HansonandHanson,1977 Brandenburgetal,2004 BrandenburgandArnberger,2001 Dwyer,1988 Keay,1992 Aultman-Halletal.,2010 PhungandRose,2007 Burkeetal.,2006 Ahmedetal.,2010 Guoetal.,2007 NikopoulouandLykoudis.,2007 Zachariasetal.,2001 Zachariasetal.,2004 Thorssonetal.,2007 Lin,2009 Thorssonetal.,2004 Eliassonetal.,2007 TuckerandGilliland,2007(review) ChanandRyan,2009(review) McGinnetal.,2007 SpinneyandMillward,2010 objective subjective absolute relative revealed/reported stated weather forecasts adverse weather' seasonality precipitation temperature wind perceived temperature quantitative qualitative longitudinal multivariate crosstabs climate regime equatorial arid warm temperate continental polar NW-European North American Australian Other urban rural weekday/holiday day/night/peakhour hourly weather data daily weather data rural weather stations urban micro climates modes •car •transit •cyclist •pedestrian •intermodal destinations routes frequencies departure times distances travel times trip purposes age gender education income household car availability health travel attitudes weather attit. role of geogr. context degree of urbanization resolutions (Koppen Geiger) Othermeth. attributes personal background Meteorologicalattributes parameters Mobilityattributes travel behaviour Coverageissues cultural context urban or rural HealthTransport Geography temporal Biometeorology
  4. 4. Progress challenge 1 continued • Overall: increased attractivensess of cycling and decrease of the car • Winter(milder and wetter): growth in use of cycling and walking • Summer (hotter, dryer and extreme precipitation): more car and less use of active modes • Sholder seasons: contrasting results
  5. 5. Progress challenge 1 continued • What is more important for urban heat island effect?: • Long wave trapping • Short wave shadow effects • Based on collected data in Rotterdam and Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) • Effects depend on season: • Winter: only long wave trapping due to lack of incoming solar radation • Summer: both processes Physical'mechanisms' 6/13* Long*wave*trapping* Night'8me' Short*wave*shadow*effects* Day'8me' Which%of%the%processes%is%more%important%and%when?%
  6. 6. Progress challenge 2 • Developing and testing multidimensional framework • Aims of PSS • Improving planning process • Improving outcomes • Experimental tests of Urban Strategy (US) • Preliminary results • In its current form US contributes little to the quality of the process and outcomes • Scale and level of detail not well tuned to the demands of land use and transport strategy makers • Kind of indicators not well-suited for kind of questions Title Urban Strategy Experiment No1 Group 2(3 persons) The second group consisted of three male urban planning mobility studies. During the introduction of Urban Strate legend that is used in the traffic intensity map. Anothe borders of the model: what can(‘t) it do ? 
  7. 7. Policy relevance • Impact of microclimate on local environmental quality • Impact of microclimate on sustainable transport modes • Impacts on sustainable accessibility • Integration of microclimate effects in PSS
  8. 8. Prospects challenge 1 • Fieldwork to analyse interaction weather conditions, individual experiences and mobility • Modelling morphology of cities and urban climate
  9. 9. Prospects challenge 2 • Experimental testing specific strategies to improve quality of processes and outcomes of PSS • Analysis of meaning of PSS at various spatial scales and for exchange of knowledge between various type of actors