Bivec presentation dijst cesar

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Bivec presentation dijst cesar

  1. 1. Changing Climate, Changing Weather, Changing Transport BIVEC conference May 30-31, Luxembourg Martin Dijst Faculty of Geosciences Utrecht University
  2. 2. Abrupt climate changes • Abrupt climate changes: takes place so rapidly and unexpectedly that human or natural systems have difficulty adapting to it.
  3. 3. Abrupt and adverse weather changes
  4. 4. Climate zones world
  5. 5. Climate zones Europe
  6. 6. Microclimate • Climatic condition in relatively small area: street, square, neighbourhood, city…. • Depends on – Location in specific climate zone – Topography – Distance to water – Elements of built environment – Human activities – Etc.
  7. 7. Exposure oors_pppd. 20" 30" ! me_cycling_outdoors_pppd. 20" 30" ! me_walking_outdoors_pppd. 5˚C"25,30˚C" >30˚C" ors_pppd. 0" 10" 20" 30" <10˚C" 10,15˚C"15,20˚C"20,25˚C"25,30˚C" >30˚C" ! me_cycling_outdoors_pppd. 0" 10" 20" 30" <10˚C" 10,15˚C"15,20˚C"20,25˚C"25,30˚C" >30˚C" ! me_walking_outdoors_pppd.
  8. 8. Outline • Climate change and changes in travel NL- 2050 • Measurement of weather parameters • Weather, perceptions and emotions • Planning perspectives • Conclusions and discussion
  9. 9. CESAR Climate and Environmental change and Sustainable Accessibility of the Randstad http://www.nwo.nl/en/research-and- results/research-projects/02/2300156402.html
  10. 10. Challenges CESAR I To unravel the complex relationships between the spatial configuration of land uses and infrastructures, meteorological processes and behavioural decisions concerning mobility patterns and their use in PSS.
  11. 11. Challenges CESAR II To develop effective knowledge transfer mechanisms and improve participative planning and spatial governance to actively support the use of PSS for strategic spatial planning processes.
  12. 12. Climate change NL-2050
  13. 13. Temperature change I
  14. 14. Temperature change II
  15. 15. Seasonal projections 2050 Spring -Warmer -Overall wetter Autumn -Warmer -Rain falls over fewer days Winter -Milder -Overall wetter -Heavier precipitation Summer -Hotter -Longer dry periods -Heavier rain showers
  16. 16. • Selection of seasons within the last decade representing current climate • Selection of seasons within the last decade representing projected 2050 climate • Analyzing mobility patterns in these selected seasons for the Randstad • Dutch National Travel Survey Methodology
  17. 17. Results • Overall: increased attractiveness of cycling and decrease of the car • Winter(milder and wetter): growth in use of cycling and walking • Summer (hotter, drier and extreme precipitation): more car and less use of active modes • Shoulder seasons: contrasting results
  18. 18. Percent changes in number of trips per person per day for different activity types (2050 compared to present) Results activity types
  19. 19. Measurement weAther parameters
  20. 20. Panel study Rotterdam
  21. 21. Observed weather conditions 0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 - 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 Precipitationinmm/windspeedinm/s Maximumairtemperaturein˚C W in d s p e e d ( m / s ) P r e c ip it a t io n T a _ m a x ( o b s e r v e d ) T a _ m a x ( 1 9 8 0 - 2 0 1 0 ) A u g u s t S e p t e m b e r O c t o b e r N o v e m b e r D e c e m b e r J a n u a r y F e b r u a r y W in d S p e e d P r e c ip it a t io n T a ( m a x ) , o b s e r v e d T a ( m a x ) , 1 9 8 0 - 2 0 1 0 S n o w C o v e r
  22. 22. Air temperature
  23. 23. The mean radiant temperature • The mean radiant temperature sums up all short-wave radiation fluxes (direct, diffuse and reflected) and long- wave radiation fluxes (emitted) from the surroundings to which the human body is exposed to • The main meteorological parameter influencing the human energy balance and the thermal comfort
  24. 24. Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET)
  25. 25. Clear, hot and calm summer day Cloudy and calm autumn day Weather change: from clear and calm to cloudy and windy - Tmrt is significantly higher than the Ta (+30˚C) - Tmrt is higher than the Ta (+15˚C) - Tmrt explains much of the daily variations in how we perceive the thermal conditions (PET) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour TemperatureC Ta Tmrt PET Tmrt Ta PET 21 September 2012 - a cloudy day no precipitation, mean wind speed 2.6 m/s (1.1 m) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour TemperatureC Ta Tmrt PET Ta Tmrt PET 14 August 2012 - semi-cloudy day no precipitation, mean wind speed 1.3 m/s (1.1m) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour TemperatureC Ta Tmrt PET Ta PET Tmrt
  26. 26. Temperatures and daily cycling duration Bicycle as main mode 0 5 10 15 20 25 <0˚C(N=358) 0-5˚C(N=233) 5-10˚C(N=981) 10-15˚C(N=914) 15-20˚C(N=742) 20-25˚C(N=662) 25-30˚C(N=314) >30˚C(N=186) Max. air temperature 0 5 10 15 20 25 <10˚C(N=809) 10-20˚C(N=527) 20-30˚C(N=874) 30-40˚C(N=580) 40-50˚C(N=792) 50-60˚C(N=718) >60˚C(N=90) Max. mean radiant temp. 0 5 10 15 20 25 <4˚C(N=1588) 4-8˚C(N=592) 8-13˚C(N=508) 13-18˚C(N=395) 18-23˚C(N=311) 23-29˚C(N=345) 29-35˚C(N=465) >35˚C(N=186) Max. phys. equiv. temp. (PET) 0 5 10 15 20 25 none(N=1628) Pre Daily&weather&effects&on&cycling&dura4ons&(in&minutes)&per&person&per&day
  27. 27. Temperatures and mortality • Models using mean radiant temperature predict an overall much better fit with mortality in all ages than models using air temperature
  28. 28. Weather, perceptions and emotions
  29. 29. Temperature and happiness Air$temperature$ $ Effect&on&happiness&for&different&mode&user&grou 3,50 3,75 4,00 4,25 4,50 <5˚C& 5710˚C& 10715˚C& 15720˚C& 20725˚C& 25730˚C& >30˚C& cycling$ 3,50 3,75 4,00 4,25 4,50 <5˚C& 5710˚C& 10715˚C& 15720˚C& 20725˚C& 25730˚C& >30˚C& walking$ 3,50 3,75 4,00 4,25 4,50 pub
  30. 30. Precipitation and happiness Precipitation$ & Effect&on&happiness&for&different&mode&user&groups& & 3,50 3,75 4,00 4,25 4,50 no&precip.& rain&<0.1mm& rain&0.171mm& rain&>1mm& snow& cycling$ 3,50 3,75 4,00 4,25 4,50 no&precip.& rain&<0.1mm& rain&0.171mm& rain&>1mm& snow& walking$ 3,50 3,75 4,00 4,25 4,50 no&precip.& public
  31. 31. Wind speed and happiness Wind$speed$$ & Effect&on&happiness& 3,50 3,75 4,00 4,25 4,50 <2m/s& 274m/s& 476m/s& >6m/s& cycling$ 3,50 3,75 4,00 4,25 4,50 <2m/s& 274m/s& 476m/s& >6m/s& walking$ 3,50 3,75 4,00 4,25 4,50 p
  32. 32. Wind speed and fear& Effect&on&fear&for&different&mode&user&groups& 1,50 1,75 2,00 2,25 2,50 <2m/s& 274m/s& 476m/s& >6m/s& cycling$ 1,50 1,75 2,00 2,25 2,50 <2m/s& 274m/s& 476m/s& >6m/s& walking$ 1,50 1,75 2,00 2,25 2,50
  33. 33. Some Planning perspectives
  34. 34. Urban heat island Esp. over night built-up areas are significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas Physical'mechanisms' 6/13* Long*wave*trapping* Night'8me' Short*wave*shadow*effects* Day'8me' Which%of%the%processes%is%more%important%and%when?%
  35. 35. Surface geometry Source: Thorsson
  36. 36. Vegetation I
  37. 37. Vegetation II Source: Thorsson
  38. 38. Planning Support System • Developing and testing multidimensional framework • Aims of PSS • Improving planning process • Improving outcomes • Experimental tests of Urban Strategy (US) Title Urban Strategy Experiment No1 Group 2(3 persons) The second group consisted of three male urban planning mobility studies. During the introduction of Urban Strate legend that is used in the traffic intensity map. Anothe borders of the model: what can(‘t) it do ?
  39. 39. Conclusions and discussion • Abrupt and adverse weather changes • Gradual and subtle changes in weather conditions – Changes in lifestyles and related activity and travel behaviour – Changes in population composition of cities • Responding to climate change is not only matter of infrastructural and technological innovation but complex process of societal transformations (LERU, 2013)
  40. 40. Thank you m.j.dijst@uu.nl

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