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  • 1. Climate   Des+na+ons   AAG  Annual  Mee+ng,  NY  2012  Lars  Böcker   &  
  • 2. •  Background   •  Methodology   •  Climate  change  and  the  par+cipa+on  into  various  ac+vi+es   •  Climate  change  effects  on  selected  des+na+on  loca+on:           -­‐in  terms  of  travelled  trip-­‐distance                     -­‐in  terms  of  urbaniza+on  degree   •  Discussion,  conclusion  and  research  outlook   Contents  
  • 3. •  Extensive  knowledge  on  weather  and  travel  +mes  /  mode  choices   and  on  climate  and  tourism   •  Less  aOen+on  for  daily  ac+vi+es  and  des+na+ons   •  Overemphasis  on  weather  extremes;  less  aOen+on  for  recurring   everyday  weather  condi+ons   •  Geographical  contexts:  extensive  knowledge  on  urban  micro-­‐ climates,  but  hardly  in  rela+on  to  ac+vity/travel  behaviours   •  Only  few  studies  that  directly  link  to  climate  change   •  Böcker,  Dijst  &  Prillwitz  (submiOed)  “Impact  of  weather  on  travel   behaviour  in  perspec+ve:    a  literature  review”   Background  
  • 4. Methodology   •  Selec+on  of  seasons  within  the  last  decade   represen+ng  current  climate   •  Selec+on  of  seasons  within  the  last  decade   represen+ng  projected  2050  climate   •  Analyzing  mobility  paOerns  in  different   geographical  contexts   •  Dutch  Na+onal  Travel  Survey       •  Böcker,  Prillwitz  &  Dijst  (submiOed)                     “Climate  Change  Impacts  on  Mode  Choices  and  Travelled   Distances:  A  Comparison  of  Present  with  2050  Weather   Condi+ons  for  the  Randstad  Holland”  
  • 5. Methodology   Spring   -­‐Warmer   -­‐Overall  weOer               Autumn   -­‐Warmer   -­‐Rain  falls  over  fewer  days   Winter   -­‐Milder   -­‐Overall  weOer   -­‐Heavier  precipita+on     Summer   -­‐HoOer   -­‐Longer  dry  periods   -­‐Heavier  rain  showers    
  • 6. Results:  ac+vity  types   Percent  changes  in  number  of  trips  per  person  per  day  for   different  ac+vity  types  (2050  compared  to  present)   -40 -20 0 20 40 60 maintenance n=6989 social visit n=6530 work/study n=11421 shopping n=6044 picking up n=3856 leisure other n=4426 leisure touring n=4327 winter spring summer autumn %  
  • 7. Results:  ac+vity  types   Percent  changes  in  number  of  trips  per  person  per  day  for   different  ac+vity  types  (2050  compared  to  present)   -40 -20 0 20 40 60 maintenance n=6989 social visit n=6530 work/study n=11421 shopping n=6044 picking up n=3856 leisure other n=4426 leisure touring n=4327 winter spring summer autumn %  
  • 8. Results:  ac+vity  types   Percent  changes  in  number  of  trips  per  person  per  day  for   different  ac+vity  types  (2050  compared  to  present)   -40 -20 0 20 40 60 maintenance n=6989 social visit n=6530 work/study n=11421 shopping n=6044 picking up n=3856 leisure other n=4426 leisure touring n=4327 winter spring summer autumn %  
  • 9. Results:  ac+vity  types   Percent  changes  in  number  of  trips  per  person  per  day  for   different  ac+vity  types  (2050  compared  to  present)   -40 -20 0 20 40 60 maintenance n=6989 social visit n=6530 work/study n=11421 shopping n=6044 picking up n=3856 leisure other n=4426 leisure touring n=4327 winter spring summer autumn %  
  • 10. Results:  ac+vity  types   Percent  changes  in  number  of  trips  per  person  per  day  for   different  ac+vity  types  (2050  compared  to  present)   -40 -20 0 20 40 60 maintenance n=6989 social visit n=6530 work/study n=11421 shopping n=6044 picking up n=3856 leisure other n=4426 leisure touring n=4327 winter spring summer autumn %  
  • 11. Results:  ac+vity  types   Winter   Spring   Summer   Autumn   All  seasons   Work/study   -­‐   -­‐   +   -­‐   -­‐   Maintenance   -­‐   -­‐   -­‐   0   -­‐   Picking  up   +   +   -­‐   +   +   Social  visit   +   -­‐   -­‐   +   +   Leisure  touring   +   +   -­‐   -­‐   +   Leisure  shopping   -­‐   -­‐   +   +   -­‐   Leisure  other   -­‐   -­‐   +   +   -­‐   All  trips   +   -­‐   +   +   +   OLS  regression:  Climate  change  effects  on  travelled  distance  per  trip   +/-­‐  =  significant  at  .05  
  • 12. Results:  trip  distances   Percent  changes  in  trip  distance  for  different  ac+vity  types   (2050  compared  to  present)   -40 -20 0 20 40 60 work/study n=11421 social visit n=6530 maintenance n=6989 picking up n=3856 shopping n=6044 touring n=4327 leisure other n=4426 Winter Spring Summer Autumn %  
  • 13. Results:  trip  distances   Percent  changes  in  trip  distance  for  different  ac+vity  types   (2050  compared  to  present)   -40 -20 0 20 40 60 work/study n=11421 social visit n=6530 maintenance n=6989 picking up n=3856 shopping n=6044 touring n=4327 leisure other n=4426 Winter Spring Summer Autumn %  
  • 14. Results:  trip  distances   Percent  changes  in  trip  distance  for  different  ac+vity  types   (2050  compared  to  present)   -40 -20 0 20 40 60 work/study n=11421 social visit n=6530 maintenance n=6989 picking up n=3856 shopping n=6044 touring n=4327 leisure other n=4426 Winter Spring Summer Autumn %  
  • 15. Results:  trip  distances   Percent  changes  in  trip  distance  for  different  ac+vity  types   (2050  compared  to  present)   -40 -20 0 20 40 60 work/study n=11421 social visit n=6530 maintenance n=6989 picking up n=3856 shopping n=6044 touring n=4327 leisure other n=4426 Winter Spring Summer Autumn %  
  • 16. Results:  ac+vity  types   Winter   Spring   Summer   Autumn   All  seasons   Work/study   +   -­‐   +   +   +   Maintenance   -­‐   +   -­‐   +   -­‐   Picking  up   -­‐   -­‐   -­‐   +   -­‐   Social  visit   +   -­‐   -­‐   +   -­‐   Leisure  touring   -­‐   +   -­‐   -­‐   +   Leisure  shopping   -­‐   -­‐   +   +   -­‐   Leisure  other   -­‐   -­‐   -­‐   +   -­‐   All  trips   -­‐   -­‐   -­‐   +   -­‐   Nega+ve  binomial  models:  Climate  change  effects  on  #  trips/person/day     +/-­‐  =  significant  at  .05  
  • 17. Results:  des+na+on  address  density   Climate  change  effect  on  the  number  of  trips  per  person  per   day  towards  des+na+ons  of  different  address  density   -25 0 25 50 75 100 >3500 2000-3500 1400-2000 700-1400 <700 Example:  Touring  in  winter   %  
  • 18. Winter   -­‐  Leisure  touring  increase  is  stronger  for  rural  and  suburban   des+na+ons;  no  effect  for  urban  des+na+ons     Summer   -­‐   Leisure  touring  decrease  is  strongest  for  highly  urbanized   innercity  des+na+ons   -­‐   Leisure-­‐shopping  increase  is  stronger  for  the  more  urban  than   for  the  more  suburban/rural  des+na+ons   -­‐   Leisure-­‐other  increase  is  stronger  for  rural/suburban   des+na+ons   Results:  des+na+on  address  density  
  • 19. Conclusion  &  discussion   •  Insight  into  the  impact  of  (changing)  recurring  climate   condi+ons  on  des+na+on  choices   •  Importance  of  geographical  contexts   •  Des+na+on  choices  interrelated  with  mode  choices   •  Implica+ons  for  planning,  health,  retail  &  hospitality  industry   •  Limi+ons  of  the  data:                                   -­‐no  clear  dis+nc+on  indoor/outdoor  des+na+ons                 -­‐seasonal  level                                   -­‐geographical  context  limited  to  degree  of  urbaniza+on   •  Next  step:  Ac+vity  diaries                                                       -­‐situa+onal  approach                                                 -­‐subjec+ve  interpreta+ons  of  weather                           -­‐different  residen+al  environments,  dis+nc+ve  microclimates                
  • 20. Thank  you!   Contact            Website/blog   L.Bocker@geo.uu.nl    hOp://cesar.nvdv.eu