Aag 2011 seattle

192
-1

Published on

Published in: Technology, News & Politics
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
192
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Aag 2011 seattle

  1. 1. Climate   Mobility   Lars  Böcker        Mar4n  Dijst    Jan  Prillwitz   &  
  2. 2. Contents   •  Background   •  Methodology   •  Climate  change  and  mode  choices   •  Climate  change  and  des4na4on  choices   •  Conclusions  
  3. 3. •  Loca4on  of  studies   •  Overemphasis  on  weather  extremes   •  Contradic4ng  results   •  Lack  of  aFen4on  to  personal  backgrounds   •  Lack  of  aFen4on  to  geographical  contexts   •  Böcker,  Dijst  &  Prillwitz  (forthcoming)  “Changing     recurring  clima4c  condi4ons  and  travel  behaviour:  the   role  of  personal  backgrounds  and  geographical  contexts” Background  
  4. 4. Methodology   •  Selec4on  of  seasons  within  the  last  decade   represen4ng  current  climate   •  Selec4on  of  seasons  within  the  last  decade   represen4ng  the  2050  projected  climate   •  Analyzing  mobility  paFerns  for  different  popula4on   categories  and  geographical  contexts   •  Dutch  Na4onal  Travel  Survey                                     Randstad  area  
  5. 5. Methodology   Spring   -­‐Warmer   -­‐Slightly  weFer     Summer   -­‐HoFer   -­‐Longer  dry  periods   -­‐Heavier  rain  showers   Autumn   -­‐Warmer   Winter   -­‐Milder   -­‐Overall  weFer   -­‐Heavier  precipita4on  
  6. 6. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   winter   spring   summer   autumn   winter   spring   summer   autumn   Current  climate   Future  climate   Mode     Shares   (stacked)   100%   0%  
  7. 7. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   >3000 addresses/km2  <700 addresses/km2   Increase/decrease  in   mode  shares  for  2050   compared  to  current   Address density  
  8. 8. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   >3000 addresses/km2  <700 addresses/km2   Address density   Increase/decrease  in   mode  shares  for  2050   compared  to  current  
  9. 9. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   €15000-€30000   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   <€15000   >€30000   Household income  
  10. 10. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   €15000-€30000   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   <€15000   >€30000   Household income  
  11. 11. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   30-64 years old  18-29 years old   over 65 years old   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   Age  
  12. 12. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   30-64 years old  18-29 years old   over 65 years old   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   Age  
  13. 13. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   men   women   Gender   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn  
  14. 14. Climate  change  and  mode  choices   men   women   Gender   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn   -­‐10,0   -­‐5,0   0,0   5,0   10,0   Winter   Spring   Summer  Autumn  
  15. 15. Climate  change  and  des4na4ons   errands   <30min   work/   study   social   visit     shopping   >30min     picking  up   persons   sports   cultural   &  other   touring/   walking     -­‐40   -­‐30   -­‐20   -­‐10   0   10   20   30   40   50   60   winter   spring   summer   autumn   Percentual  changes  in  number  of  trips  per  person  for  different   des4na4on  ac4vi4es  (for  2050  as  compared  to  current)   %   %   %   %   %   %   %   %  
  16. 16. Conclusion   •  Insight  into  the  rela4onship  between  (changing)   recurring  weather  condi4ons  and  travel  paFerns   •  Importance  of  geographical  contexts  and  personal   backgrounds   •  Applica4on  of  knowledge  in  planning  support   •  Next:  mul4variate  analysis   •  Next:  Ac4vity  diaries                                                   -­‐situa4onal  approach                                       -­‐subjec4ve  interpreta4ons  of  weather                 -­‐different  residen4al  environments                    
  17. 17. Thank  you!   Contact            Website/blog  (in  Dutch)   l.bocker@geo.uu.nl    hFp://cesar.nvdv.eu  

×