A presentation given by Mark Billinghurst on September 23rd 2015 at the Sydney AR meet up. It describes how the VR space in 2016 will be different from that in 1996, and directions for future work to help grow the business.

1. VIRTUAL REALITY 2.0
Mark Billinghurst
mark.billinghurst@unisa.edu.au
September 23rd 2015

2. Virtual Reality is HOT!

3. Virtual Reality was HOT! .. In 1995..

4. Joining the HIT Lab in Seattle (1994)
• LeadingVR research center
• Only $250K for 1500 polygons/sec!
• 320 x 240 pixel HMDs

5. MyVR Predictions (1996)
• I knew everyone would useVR when:
• HMDs were cheap (<$500)
• Computers generate millions of polys/sec
• Tracking was inexpensive
• Good 3D input devices

6. Here Come the Cheap HMDs

9. • April 2007 Computer World
• VRVoted 7th on list of 21 biggest technology flops
• MS Bob #1

10. Lessons Learned
• Don’t believe the hype
• Many factors determine technology acceptance
• Human Centered Design/Design for users
• Need to move from Demo to Production
• Profitable niche markets first
• Follow the money

11. VIRTUAL REALITY 2.0

12. Virtual Reality is HOT! (Again..)

13. Why 2016 won’t be like 1996
• It’s not just VR anymore
• Huge amount of investment
• Inexpensive hardware platforms
• Easy to use content creation tools
• New devices for input and output
• Proven use cases – no more Hype!
• Most important: Focus on User Experience

14. It’s Not JustVR – Invisible Interfaces
Rekimoto, J. and Nagao, K. 1995. The world through the computer: computer augmented
interaction with real world environments. In Proceedings of the 8th Annual ACM Symposium on
User interface and Software Technology. UIST '95. ACM, New York, NY, 29-36.

15. From Reality toVirtual Reality
Reality Augmented Reality Virtual Reality
Mixed Reality
Milgram, P., & Kishino, F. (1994). A taxonomy of mixed reality visual displays.
IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Information and Systems, 77(12), 1321-1329.

16. Ubiquitous Computing/Internet of Things
Smart Home Sensor Networks

17. Augmented Reality

18. Virtual Reality

19. Gartner Hype Cycle

20. Gartner Hype Cycle

21. AR/VR Investments
• > $1 Billion USD from VCs, > 120 deals in US alone

22. Virtual Reality Landscape

23. AR Market

24. Inexpensive Hardware
• A Smart Phone gives you an VR/AR experience
• > 1.4 Billion new iOS/Android devices shipped in 2016
• Mobile VR
• Google Cardboard
• > 1 million devices distributed
• < $5 USD from China
• Handheld AR
• Qualcomm Vuforia platform
• > 100,000 developers
• > 20,000 apps available on iOS/Android

25. Easy to Use Tools
• Content Creation
• Immersive video – 360Heros
• 3D models from photos - 123D Catch
• Drag and Drop
• BuildAR (www.buildar.org)
• CraftAR (Catchoom)
• Game Engine Support
• Unity3D/Unreal plug-in support

26. New Devices for Input and Output
• New Display Technology
• Waveguide Displays (Lumus)
• Retinal Displays (MagicLeap)
• Contact Lens (Innovega)
• Projected AR (CastAR)
• New Input Technology
• Depth Sensing (Tango)
• Gesture Capture (SoftKinetic)
Lumus DK40
Google Tango

27. Proven Use Cases
• Need to validate the technology
• Example: QuiverVision
• AR colouring book application
• Proven to improve writing skills
• ~ 2 million downloads on iOS/Play stores
• Example: Pain Relief
• VR pain relief for burn/trauma
• Significantly reduce pain perception
• Firsthand Technologies

28. Focus on User Experience
• Understand user needs
• Consider whole user needs
• Physical, emotional, cognitive, social, cultural
• Perceptual issues
• Design for those needs
• Rapid prototyping
• Virtual, physical elements, interaction metaphor
• Test your design
• Formal, informal testing

29. TAT Augmented ID

32. What Makes a Good MR Experience?
• Compelling
• Engaging,‘Magic’ moment
• Intuitive, ease of use
• Uses existing skills
• Anchored in physical world
• Seamless combination of real and digital

33. Demo:colAR
• Turn colouring books pages into AR scenes
• Markerless tracking, use your own colours..
• Try it yourself: http://www.colARapp.com/

34. BUILDING THE BUSINESS

35. AR Business Today
• Around $600 Million USD in 2014 (>$2B 2015)
• > 80% Games and Marketing applications

36. Market Projections
cf. 2014 computer game market = $84 Billion USD

37. Gartner Hype Cycle

38. Getting from Here to There
• New markets
• Medical
• Education
• Industry
• Etc
• New applications
• Training
• Collaboration
• Information Presentation
• Etc

39. Example: Commercial Systems
• Ngrain
• http://www.ngrain.com/
• Training authoring tool
• Model based AR tracking
• ScopeAR
• http://www.scopear.com/
• Remote assistance
• Image based tracking

40. Example: Social Panoramas
• Google Glass
• Capture live image panorama (compass + camera)
• Remote device (tablet)
• Immersive viewing, live annotation
Reichherzer, C., Nassani, A., & Billinghurst, M. (2014). Social panoramas using wearable
computers. In Mixed and Augmented Reality (ISMAR), 2014 IEEE International Symposium on
(pp. 303-304). IEEE.

41. Example: AR remote collaboration
• Local user uses AR display
• Move real objects using AR cues
• Remote expert on desktop interface
• Place 3D objects with independent view
Tait, M., & Billinghurst, M. The Effect of View Independence in a Collaborative AR System.
Computer Supported Cooperative Work (CSCW), 1-27.

42. Research Needed in Many Areas
• Social Acceptance
• Overcome social problems
• Cloud Services
• Cloud based storage/processing
• Ubiquitous AR/VR
• Using AR/VR with Ubicomp/IoT technologies
• Collaborative Experiences
• AR/VR teleconferencing
• Etc..

43. Exmple:SocialAcceptance
• People don’t want to look silly
• Only 12% of 4,600 adults would be willing to wear AR glasses
• 20% of mobile AR browser users experience social issues
• Acceptance more due to Social than Technical issues
• Needs further study (ethnographic, field tests, longitudinal)

44. Crossing Boundaries
Jun Rekimoto, Sony CSL

45. Invisible Interfaces
Jun Rekimoto, Sony CSL

46. Example: VisualizingWifi Networks
• Mobile app to view Wifi networks
• Real time visualization of surrounding network
• Audio/visual feedback based on signal strength
• http://www.architectureofradio.com/

47. CONCLUSION

48. Summary
• AR/VR in 2016 will not be like 1996
• Focus on more thanVR
• Low barrier to Entry
• Emphasis on User Experience
• To build the Business
• Move into new markets, develop proven case studies
• Research core areas
• Social acceptance, collaborative tools, etc

49. www.empathiccomputing.org
@marknb00
mark.billinghurst@unisa.edu.au